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QQQ Short-Term Selloff After the Fed's Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip in QQQ: Then you need to know that as we approach the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision this week, there is growing speculation that the central bank may implement a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut, instead of the anticipated 25. While rate cuts are typically viewed as bullish for markets, this unexpected move could trigger a short-term selloff, particularly in tech-heavy indices like the QQQ. Why? The market tends to operate on a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mentality. Investors have already priced in expectations of a modest 25 bps cut, so if the Fed delivers a more aggressive 50 bps cut, it may signal heightened concern over economic conditions, causing traders to pull back. Such a scenario could spook the market, leading to a temporary selloff in major indices like the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). In light of this, it may be worth considering a bearish strategy for the short term. Specifically, the $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could be a prudent option, as they stand to gain value in the event of a selloff following the Fed decision. The short-term market reaction could make these puts a strategic play for traders anticipating a dip. While the reaction to the Fed decision could be sharp in the short term, it’s unlikely to be long-lasting. Market participants will soon digest the news, and I expect a recovery by the end of the month. In fact, by November 5th—U.S. election day—we could see new all-time highs in both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been keen on maintaining market stability, which could give the Democrats a slight edge in the upcoming elections. After all, former President Donald Trump has stated he wouldn’t reappoint Powell if re-elected, possibly adding a political dimension to the Fed’s moves. In conclusion, while the QQQ might face near-term turbulence due to the Fed’s potentially larger-than-expected rate cut, the broader market is likely to recover soon, with tech stocks regaining their upward momentum as the election approaches. The $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could serve as a timely hedge during this brief period of volatility.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by TopgOptions
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-13 : Rally DayPlease take a minute to watch this video, and possibly some of my earlier videos from this week, as we continue to see the SPY, QQQ, and Bitcoin continue to move through an Excess Phase Peak pattern. It is very important for traders to understand the eventual A/B outcome of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. For the SPY/QQQ, we are still flagging into what is very likely to be a rolling top pattern - setting up a broad downward price trend in the near future. The only thing that can stop that rollover top is a rally to new ATHs (which can happen to invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern). Because of these pattern setups, it is important to see were the SPY ends this current rally phase and if the SPY can rally above the recent ATH levels or not. Gold is moving into a temporary topping pattern above $2600. I would think the 2613 level would be the ideal topping level for Gold - but I would expect Gold to struggle to move up to the 2613 level at this point. Bitcoin is showing an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. I go into detail about this pattern and what we need to look for over the next few weeks. Ultimately, I believe the markets are moving into a transitional price rollover ahead of the election. Plan, prepare, and Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Markets Finding Equilibrium Before FOMCAll major indexes and broad market advancing today with the US CPI/PPI combo causing some big recoveries since the post Labor Day selloff. Momentum goes to the bulls for now until price proves otherwise. FED likely to cut 25 bps next week with more to come by end of year. It's amazing how quickly sentiment can shift like it did with Aug 1-5 and after, and again Sep 3-6 and after. I hope you enjoy today's video. Friday's close for the day and week will be important and perhaps it's all quiet on the western front heading into FOMC next week where price can be excitable and volatile, but we'll do our best to navigate everything. Thanks for watching!!! See you in the markets.
AMEX:XLRE
by ChrisPulver
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : GOLD Breakout WINNERGetting through my morning with phone calls and coding - I took a break to check on the markets and what did I see? A huge breakout rally in GOLD. This huge move higher (+$40) is a massive win for those who followed my Plan You Trade Videos. I've been saying any price move above $2565-$2575 would be a gift and traders should attempt to BOOK PROFITS as Gold moves above these levels. I warned not to hold positions above $2585-2593. In fact, I'm expecting a bit of a metals flash-crash event to take place near mid-October. But, today is a winner day for gold traders. A HUGE WINNER day. I'm so happy to hear from all of you about your success with my Plan Your Trade videos. This is what it is all about - help you become a more skilled trader. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-12 : BreakAway PatternMuch like yesterday's pattern, today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY. I believe today's price move will be more muted than yesterday's big rally off the 540 lows. Combining the 830 jobs data with price expectations is difficult. I believe jobs data will be relatively soft, and traders will interpret that as the Fed may decrease rates before the end of this year. But I believe traders will be wrong, and the markets will flatten out this afternoon (after some morning volatility). Ultimately, the Fed is very confident that it will leave rates where they are unless something breaks. And because of that, I believe traders are trying to WISH the Fed into making a move. Because of this dynamic, I believe hedge assets will continue to melt upward and we will move into a fairly consolidated price period between now and the Nov 5 election. Overall, I believe most of today's price action will take place before Noon ET. Buckle up and prepare to take the afternoon off if my research is correct. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
2024-09-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: I try to stick to the only important pattern for me right now. Huge triangle, fits the unclear and erratic direction of the current price action. 19600 will likely be tested again because bulls just bought too strongly today. I’d be surprised if we break above 19700 though. If we do, no reason not to print 20000 or a new ath. current market cycle: trading range - triangle on the daily chart key levels: 18300 - 19800 bull case: Bulls trapped many bears today and printed a nasty reversal. I think most bears already gave up and we are free to trade to at least 19600. Problem with longs is the stop. Right now you would have to do 18600 and that’s just dumb. So should you wait for a pullback? Yes. Invalidation is below 18900. bear case: Do bears have any arguments until 19600? I don’t think so. There is a minor trend line running 19300ish but its weak. The bigger trend line from the ath is more likely and there I expect more resistance from the bears. If bears somehow manage to drop it below 18900 again, market is probably neutral again. Invalidation is above 19300. short term: max bullish for 19600, if bulls come around again tomorrow. Would like to see a pullback to the 1h or at least 15m ema. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade : Nope. trade of the day: Buying 18600 was profitable since Monday.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-11 : Inside BreakawayToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open within yesterday's price range and attempt to "break away" from yesterday's range. I still believe we are moving into a secondary Excess Phase Peak pattern (flagging higher), which will prompt the SPY to attempt to rally to near 560. Because of this, I'm expecting a continued upward push toward the 558-560 area before it stalls and tops out. I suggest traders prepare for a lot of morning volatility today in early trading, followed by a strong push into higher price trending (upward) as today's BreakAway plays out. Gold and Silver are making a decent move higher - as I suggested. Remember, Gold and Silver will peak out within the next 4~5 days and will likely reach a sudden peak/top after Sept 20th, resulting in a quick, deep-V type collapse. I expect metals to move into that Deep-V base/bottom before October 11~14 (roughly). The US markets and Metals will suddenly flash-crash as we move closer to the US elections. This move will likely be news or event-related. But I feel it is inevitable at this point. Bitcoin will likely follow gold/silver and move into a moderate flash crash mode nearly simultaneously as metals. Get ready. This flash crash trend should be a great opportunity for skilled traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
$CSLR Looks to be a “W” Bottom FormationI have posted about NASDAQ:CSLR before (link below). Just based on technical signals it looks like this one may be ready to pump up to around $2.40 a share. From yesterday’s close of $1.78 that is a $0.62 move or 34.8%. That is the initial target price. If all goes as planned by the company this has the chance of being a $6 or $7 stock in the next 12 to 24 months. There are fundamental reasons for this pattern: 1. This is a turnaround story. They themselves were rescued from the hands of bankruptcy last April by T. J. Rogers, Cypress Semiconductor Founder and Billionaire and spearheaded a turnaround of NASDAQ:ENPH and early backer of SunPower. 2. As luck would have it, SunPower CAPITALCOM:SPWR is now headed to bankruptcy and NASDAQ:CSLR is the stocking horse bidder to acquire their best assets. 3. As of yesterday, Sept 9, 2024, they have secured the $40mm needed to fund the assets of SunPower. But, getting back to the technical, when measuring how far one might expect the stock to rise here, you take the price of the first bottom to the middle top then add that price to the middle top. See chart for more details. This is a low float stock for now and price can and will jump around. I have been up over 60% on my shares and down as much as 20% since I started positions back on May 7, 2024 (I have added 5 times since then and have a good sized position overall). Keep that in mind if you think this is one you want to participate in. They are not yet out of the woods but they do have big investors that are taking this chance too. As always, these are my ideas, and this one has greater risk than most. A traditional stop loss is not recommended but you should have one. If I were just getting involved mine would be around the 50 DMA (Red). Ideas, NOT INVESTING ADVICE.
NASDAQ:CSLRLong
by jaxdog
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Sept 10 : Consolidation CarryoverToday will likely be similar to yesterday - but slightly more consolidated overall. I belive the markets are struggling into a dual Excess Phase Peak Flag (Step #2) and the SPY/QQQ show this very clearly. This dual Excess Phase Peak pattern will result in either a breakdown in price (starting after Sept 20th or so) or a continued rally phase breaching the Unique & Ultimate Fibonacci High price levels. Ultimately, I believe the breakdown potential is higher at this point than the continued rally phase. That is why I'm asking traders to prepare for a top near Sept 20-25 and to move assets into CASH as we melt upward over the next 5+ days. If my research is correct, the second Excess Phase Peak pattern will prompt a breakdown in price - resulting in an attempt to find support above recent (60-90 day) lows. And that will reflect a -9-14% drawdown in price. If I'm wrong and we don't see this breakdown in price, then we'll see price struggle to move higher and eventually break the recent ATH levels. Watch this video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak patterns setup. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BradMatheny
The Fall of the S&P 500 is a Trading Opportunity in QQQ The recent correction of the S&P 500 presents itself as a buying opportunity, with no signs of a 2000 dotcom-like bubble and projections to reach 6,000 points by the end of 2024. In this context of volatility, especially in the wake of Nvidia's results and doubts about artificial intelligence, it is recommended to adopt tactical strategies to manage risk. Currently, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (known as QQQ and also as the “little Nasdaq”) is in a trading range between 485.36 and 450.84 points, with support at 419.89 points and a recent all-time high of 503.52 points. The Pre-Market Checkpoint is at 453.55 points, and the RSI shows a corrective move since August 22, with a current value of 41.77%. These technical levels suggest key areas to execute and adjust positions in a volatile environment, taking advantage of the buying opportunity in the market. An adaptable strategy for trading derivatives, such as futures or CFDs (Contracts for Difference), is the use of simultaneous long and short positions on the same index or underlying asset, similar to the “ strangle ” logic. Unlike with options, this strategy involves opening a long (buy) and a short (sell) position in the same asset to capture sharp market movements. In the case of expected volatility in the QQQ, a trader could hold both positions and adjust their size in each based on market movements, allowing them to take advantage of large fluctuations without relying on a specific market direction. This tactic effectively manages risk while maintaining exposure to significant movements in either direction. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ActivTrades
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for Sept 9 : GapUp-Higher Counter TrendPay special attention to this video and prepare for what I believe will be a type of Flash-Crash event starting near Sept 20-24. Now is the time to start moving more capital into CASH. Prepare for this potential downside price move of -9-14% by protecting your capital. Yes. There will be bigger opportunities near the bottom of this moderate Flash-crash event. No, you don't want to watch your assets fall 10-15% over the next 60 days. The solution is to move into a more protective allocation mode (70~80% CASH) over the next 5 to 7 days and then ride it out. Remember, I'm here to try to help you become a better trader. I tell you want I see and I live or die by my output. I'm not always 100% accurate. But I do believe the markets are going to move into a type fo Flash-Crash event over the next 45+ days and I believe the best way to prepare for this event is to load up on dry powder, trade smaller amounts for now, then look for opportunities near the bottom. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 8th—> Sept 13th)Hello Investors! 🌟 September started with a sharp decline as investors pruned risk assets from their portfolios amid concerns over US economic data and rising worries about growth. Let’s break down the key events that influenced the markets this week. 📉 Market Overview: The week opened with a broad sell-off across equities, commodities, and crypto, as US Treasury yields dropped to their lowest levels in more than a year. Disappointing August ISM manufacturing data set the tone for a week of worse-than-expected economic readings, stoking fears that the elusive “soft landing” may be slipping further away. US equities gave back all the gains made in the second half of August, with much of the selling attributed to multiple compression, particularly in technology stocks. Nvidia was the most prominent example, with its stock falling ~25% from its earnings peak amid historic daily declines in market cap. The S&P 500 faced resistance near the 5,600 level, struggling above 20x next year’s earnings. By the end of the week, the S&P lost 4.2%, the Dow dropped 2.9%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 5.8%, marking the tech index’s worst decline since November 2022. Stock Market Performance: 📉 S&P 500: Down by 4.2% 📉 Dow Jones: Down by 2.9% 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 5.8% Economic Indicators: WTI Crude Oil: Prices slid to their lowest levels since June 2023, prompting OPEC+ to extend its 2.2M bpd voluntary production cuts through November. Bank of Canada: Cut rates by 25 basis points in a move to boost economic growth, while PM Trudeau faced political challenges after losing support from a key coalition partner. JOLTS Jobs Data: Missed estimates significantly, falling below 8M job openings for just the second time this year. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers dropped below a key Fed gauge, reinforcing the case for rate cuts. ADP Employment Report: Hit a three-year low, showing declining pay growth for those who didn’t change jobs, adding to concerns about labor market weakness. Fed’s Beige Book: Revealed flat or declining economic activity in nine out of twelve districts, suggesting economic sluggishness that could influence the Fed’s next moves. August Jobs Report: Showed further labor market deceleration, with downward revisions to June and July payrolls. The report kept the door open for more aggressive Fed action, with FOMC officials signaling that at least 50 basis points will be debated at the September 18th meeting. Treasury and FX Markets: Yield Curve: Continued to normalize as the US 2-year yield traded 4 basis points below the 10-year rate. Futures Markets: Priced in over 100 bps of cuts by the end of 2024 and ~225 bps by September 2025. Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate: Traded close to its August lows, while the VIX volatility index rose above 23 but remained below early August highs. Corporate News: Docusign: Posted strong quarterly results and guidance, getting back on track after struggles during the post-pandemic period. Hewlett Packard Enterprises: Delivered respectable earnings but saw shares fall, as investors were unimpressed with guidance. Broadcom: Reported an uninspiring Q3, leaving investors with more questions about the pace of AI growth, contributing to broader tech sector pressure. Nvidia: There was speculation that NVDA had received a subpoena from the DOJ, but this turned out to be false news. While they are under investigation, no formal subpoena has been served yet. M&A News: Nippon Steel’s Acquisition of US Steel: Faces challenges as reports suggest the Biden Administration may block the deal on national security grounds. Verizon: Agreed to acquire Frontier Communications for $9.6B, expanding its fiber network and positioning itself for future growth.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
QQQ The Target Is UP! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for QQQ below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 448.69 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 463.68 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AnabelSignals
2
US Jobs Disappoint - Inflation on DeckThe "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week. 10 year average for September is -.9% 70 year average for September is -.7% We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI to potentially fend off more selling with improvements in the inflation trends (e.g. lower inflation = better for market sentiment). This video is a bit longer, but I appreciate you checking it out and watching. Once we're through inflation news, it's all about the FED on Sep 18, then more employment/inflation news, then election. Those are major catalysts to posture us for the remainder of the year. Long-term investors the game is simple Short-term investors are all over the place Profits and Losses happen, just don't do anything silly. Enjoy the weekend!!!
NASDAQ:TLT
by ChrisPulver
3
QQQ is showing to be rather volatileQQQ is showing to be less predictable and prone to false breakouts Last week QQQ performed a two day long false breakout above before retreating Today we see QQQ again break below its downward trend. breaking below a downward trend is usually followed by a course correction back into the normal trading zone QQQ is proving to be volatile and thus difficult to define when a trend is actually reversing or just another fake out that takes our money.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ratchet-mint
YENOCALYPSE. TO BE CONTINUE...The yen has posted several outsized moves in recent days, appreciating sharply on Thursday and Friday from 38-year lows of 161.96 per dollar, sudden rallies that market participants said had the signs of currency intervention. Bank of Japan data released on Tuesday suggested Tokyo may have spent 2.14 trillion yen ($13.5 billion) intervening on Friday. Combined with the estimated amount spent on Thursday, Japan is suspected to have bought nearly 6 trillion yen via intervention last week. In technical terms, USDJPY Fx pair has broken its major Bullish 7-months trend. What is next? I think retrace is possible.. But just to deliver much more to 152nd ground. // Mega stocks are in ruins..
by Pandorra
2