QQQ to $392Trading Pattern
QQQ has formed an ascending channel which may prove to be very lucrative for derivative trading. Utilizing Elliott Impulse and Correction Waves within the support and resistance lines, Wave 4 may dip as low as $392 which is a few dollars shy of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Technical Indicators
A bearish RSI divergence has been present since the share price surpassed $400; the RSI highs retain a negative slope while the share price highs have a positive slope (both reflected in yellow). This supports the Elliott Wave Theory and ascending channel pattern as the share price is currently at, or soon approaching, the crest of Wave 3 as well as the ascending channel resistance line.
QQQ may experience a slight bump upwards indicated by the RSI line (green) which appears to be close to crossing the MA line (red) from beneath. However, due to its close proximity to overbought territory, I believe selling pressure will begin soon after as might be indicated by the MACD.
The MACD technical indicator shows a tightly wound MACD line (green) and Signal line (red). The MACD line is within dangerous territory of crossing its Signal line from above which is a bearish indicator and suggests an increase in selling pressure followed by a correction in share value.
Qqqlong
QQQ Jan 26th, after the close updateSharing my usual QQQ chart with weekly and daily levels (they get updated every Monday for Weekly and every day for Daily)
#QQQ is in an ending diagonal, bull flagging, so early next week price action is important.
Should break above or fail on a grand scale!
Below 420.50 will trigger a strong selloff down to 412!
SPX And The CPI WeekThe S&P500 index SPX surged by +1.31% last week to close above 4400 resistance level. The index is showing that there's more potential is yet to come, to hit 4520 next.
The week ahead:
The meeting between US President Biden and China President Xi is the highlight; there is also US CPI and retail sales, the former being a key input into the Fed's policy deliberations; China activity data will also be released.
Sectors that may witness higher volatility are; Big techs, EVs, Oil & Gas and Semiconductors stocks.
$QQQ Quarter 3 (Q3) AnalysisQQQ lost a support level during the last week of Q3. The last time this happened QQQ climbed up to a new all-time high in 2021 (shown by the yellow arrows). I believe the NASDAQ and its leverage-related ETFs are trending up to a new all-time high over the next few months (marked by the green circle). However, there was a special rebalance that occurred in July that is designed to slow the NASDAQ’s growth since the NASDAQ has been very strong this year. We still haven’t observed this effect yet since the stock market has been in a correction since the rebalance, but I’d imagine it will lead to a slower growth.
Is QQQ ready to continue after a minor pullback?On the 4H chart, QQQ has been in a trend up for the entirety of this year
reaching 42% YTD. Of late, QQQ has had a 2-3 day pullback correcting
a decent uptrend over the prior week. On the Relative Trend Index,
while the signal is below the mean line, there is all the more upside
and the overall trend is positive. The dual time frame RSI shows weekly
RS high and steady over 80 while the lower time frame of 3H as the blue
line fluctuating between support at the 50 level and 80 and presently
a 50 in the pullbck. I analyse QQQ as ready to continue its overall
trend up. I will take out additional call options for a strike of $385
to expire on August 18. Over the past day this option gained 33% and
had a bid/ask spread of about 1%. I will set a stop-loss of 10% while
anticipating a profit of 150%. Once hitting the anticipated profit before
the expiration date I will take one-half of the contracts off the table
and close the rest 1-2 days before expiration.
QQQ: I might be wrong (Inverted Chart)I have been a staunch bear since about March. Since the lows expected a nice bounce but that we would resume
the downtrend at some point. Nothing has convinced me that this market would not do anything besides have another
period of pullbacks, until I inverted the QQQ today. From this perspective, I cannot help but see the very real possibility
of a double top at the very least. At that point though, there is no reason we couldn't keep going and make new highs.
The macro economic conditions are not ideal in the slightest but this might be the kind of bull that is largely absent retail
and will say that way until we actually start to top. A bull, minus retail, is what this looks like. You are not having investors
capitulate easily at all. Buyers have been positioned large and they plan on staying there for a while. Very hard to say.
This is by far the hardest market to judge, that I personally have participated in. I am thinking about taking some long positions
in certain companies, maybe even the Qs but I will be doing so cautiously.
QQQ: Imminent Tech Smack Down!Tech has been on a tare, proceeded by a rip. QQQ has gone up further than I anticipated but the market is finally showing
serious signs of exhaustion. The outrageous valuations and proclamations of a new bull market are sure fire signs of the'
end of the road. It has touched the .618 fib level and depending on how you are looking at it, even surpassed it by a bit.
Looks awfully similar to the dot com bubble. The Nasdaq fell by almost 50% before retracing over 60%, arriving slightly
above the .618 fib and then resumed its downtrend, falling another 80% from its retracement high. The market also rings
of the 1973 bear market where only a few stocks were carrying the entire market before a significant downtrend and they
never quite recovered in the same way. History points to several scenarios that all shine a light on the unusual market
behaviour and what we might expect moving forward. Many are calling for a new bull market and saying that "this time
is different." That is one phrase that you want to avoid at all costs when referencing the stock market because it always
finds a way of delivering the same results, sometimes taking more time to play out or allowing those that refuse to accept
the reality of what is to come to gloat in a the,mporay victory over those more observant and subsequently cautious investors.
I think that it will not be much longer before we see a profound shift in the market and all of the indications of economic illness
are validated by price action.
QQQ I There is a strong rise Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** QQQ Analysis - Listen to video!
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QQQ AI FrenzyIf you are not familiar with this channel take a look at our previous ideas as this is a continuation of our QQQ trade. Originally QQQ presented a great risk to reward opportunity and we entered a position in that trade.
QQQ has out performed our top target, and hopefully at this point you have taken some or most of your position of the table. QQQ still continues going up even when I thought it was due to a break. This came as the result of an unlikely surge in AI stocks that has given energy back to the market.
This movement was not forecasted(By most, myself included) however has taken the market by storm. This is the unpredictability of markets should teach you this lesson. I don't advise shorting unless you are a true subject matter expert and are comfortable holding a high risk position. Estimating tops is hard, even harder then bottoms. I have made most of my money by keeping positions for a long time and having conviction. Its one of the reason i stopped posting much in the last few years.
Adopting a strategy of holding your position can prove to be a more prudent and profitable . With that being said, i favor QQQ to the downside very short term, but i do have confidence that long term QQQ will trend up. We can sell our position or hold some of it. The next dip presents the next buying opportunity. Until then we wait patiently with a small position long.
While we wait we earn 4.6% on our cash investments with decent brokers.(Robinhood gold offers 4.65% on cash) . The trading we perform around QQQ is only to optimize our long term position.
Best of Luck
Ecicic
SPY & QQQ Market Update | Support & Resistance Guide- SPY 1h &4h Equilibrium likely breaking in the next 2 days
- QQQ rising wedge getting really close to end of its pattern, continues to trade its the upper resistance of the rising wedge
- Retail Earnings Week
- Core retail sales data tomorrow 8:30am EST
Daily $QQQ Market Breakdown, Potential Bull flags in Tech Sector- SPY and QQQ have been very choppy due to sectors rotating around may potentially continue unless we start seeing XLF forming daily uptrends and joining team bull.
- Or we see XLF / KRE go sideways and QQQ and SOXX/ SMH join team Bear.
As of now there are zero red flags for QQQ and SMH daily time frame so i am slightly more bullish in my intra-day scalp trades. Wont be holding anything overnight until we get a clear direction in the market i am open to both bearish or bullish trades just want a clear direction.
XLF Triple Bottom Support for SPY Bulls, QQQ Daily Bull Flag, - XLF holding triple bottom support 15m, holding above yeseterdays low bounce off of it 3 times today, first initial sign for the bulls. Now bulls need the hourly trend change for XLF back to an uptrend to help SPY
- QQQ's drop may seem a lot today due to how fast we pulled back from the morning but we are still way above 0.386 fib retracement on daily therefore QQQ is still in a bull flag zone.
- if XLF starts bouncing and changing trends i am likely going to swing some short term bull positions in the leverage 3x SPXL TQQQ TNA
CPI, QQQ Triple Top, KRE / XLF sector, Rate Hikes- CPI data tomorrow will likely determine if we can break that triple top on QQQ
- money rotating around today to tech sectors no a complete FEAR day where money is leaving the market.
- KRE / XLF ETF needs to bounce for SPY to bounce
- 0.25bp current priced in at 62%, and a pause at 38%
- if we break that triple, im looking for a daily bounce and would liking be more long bias then.
SPY & QQQ 15m Trend Change Back to Bulls, Need 1h trend change - After this mornings hourly bear flag with no follow through from bears bulls try to play defense and we had a megaphone pattern play out in the morning.
- QQQ was holding SPY up for the entire day, then the last 30mins bear sectors in SPY joined Bull sector QQQ.
- need to confirm a hourly uptrend to set the daily higher low for bulls.
- would like to see bulls play offense tomorrow.