Tech is at a Significant BottomI'm surprised that no one on Trading View posted this chart today.
The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to 6.86 today. This means about 94% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the COVID market crash. The NDTH has never dropped below 15 except during significant bottoms on the Nasdaq.
While anything is possible, it's highly likely that we are seeing peak fear, peak inflation, and market capitulation currently. This extreme level makes for a very good risk-to-reward setup for going long. My strategy is to place a 2x daily ATR stop loss on QQQ or TQQQ. It's likely if we drop below this level then we're in for a deep recession. Whereas if this low holds, then this is a major bottom for tech.
Qqqlong
Nasdaq100 index weekly viewNasdaq100 index closes up 2.1% last week for the fourth positive week in the longest streak since November.
The index closed on the daily timeframe on Friday above the200EMA (13,412) for the first time since early April, and above the 50EMA (13,486) on the weekly timeframe for the first time since late March.
The index may extend its rally into next week testing 13,980 - 14,300 resistance levels.
7/27/22 QQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ( NASDAQ:QQQ )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ -- B
Current Price: $306.81
Breakout Price: $308.90
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $298.80-$275.70
Price Target: $321.30-$323.90 (1st), $337.60-$344.90 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 33-35d, 69-72d
Contract of Interest: $QQQ 9/16/22 310c, $QQQ 9/16/22 310c
Trade price as of publish date: $6.20/contract, $10.27/contract
NQ breakout attempt Number 1In tandem with SPY , there is an agreement between the two major index that may be worth considering into the last half of the year. There is a daily wolfe wave setup , which triggered 4 days earlier than the SPY, on June 17 closing day at 11296.75. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the green perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target is 12942which is expected to reach this price target before Oct 10. Projected targets are defined by identifying the apex of the wolfe wave and projecting a vertical line toward the green perforated projection tgt which is extending from left to right.
QQQ - Short Term AnalysisQQQ is in what looks like a "bear flag". However, buyers came in every time on the flushes.
SHORT-TERM: LEANING BULLISH
However, this can quickly turn around on any news (or now news) and head to new lows. QQQ is still in a bearish channel (DOMINANT DIRECTION).
SEE NOTES ON THE CHART
QQQ bullish and SPY bullish, QQQ gap fillSo we have been trading in a range on the SPY for the better part of the past week and a half. And in the past hour we broke that range to the bearish side. So time to go bearish... well not so fast. Everybody could see that channel and all we really did on the SPY was pull back into the top point of the double top bottom from earlier in May, so expect people to be buying at that level. Also, the QQQ just filled the gap it had from 2 weeks ago (see chart). Tomorrow will be interesting but expect strong buying to get back into that range.
The tech sector ahead of CPIThe tech sector absorbed yesterday's gap down and rallied from the $302 support area. The lower end of the recent range continues to be a good entry point for those looking to trade this tight range. If the CPI numbers came in lower than expected on Friday, we expect the $QQQ to get above $320-5 by early next week. Watch the leaders for clues. Will $AAPL get above $150 and $GOOGL above $2400 in order to firm the recent rally attempts? The longer we hold this range, the higher the move we will have in either direction. The measured move from this channel is currently at 12 points.
$TQQQ Update$TQQQ Update
So All 4 targets from my last post have hit and I have added at all of them. (I’ll repost the last one below) My average is now 36.94 and I’m looking for 49.27 for 33.38% profit.
IF the CPI comes in hot tomorrow and the market continues to sell off, then my next target to double my position will be at 20.12.
Be careful out there, guys… the market is insane right now…. One of the best ways to stay hedged is to be mindful of your position sizes and trade small…. Always make sure you have funds to adjust in case we still have further to fall….
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I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
LONG AAPL - New Market - I believe the markets have bottomed.
AAPL is a great buy back at the demand zone fo 150$ area. Last year there was a yuge 50 million buy at 150 - nice retest of that institutional entry point.
Enter a small postion in the 10 Delta Weekly 3 DTE Calls @ .21 the 165 C for 5/13
NOT advise, my own oppinion. #sizekills
#QQQ New Buy Signal ?It appears that the A-B=C correction in the 5th wave down, in the #qqq, has completed. The #FED will make its #prepared #announcent of its #50 point basis increase.
This #cycle low could be the basis of a huge #rally for the next #4 to #6 weeks. but ass always, we await for #confirmation. There has been a lot of talk for a much needed 75 basis point increase that should be implemented this meeting. As long as #FED #powell sticks to his announcement, I would expect the #qqq to rally.
Will keep you update.