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SKEW Indicator and NASDAQ - point of reversal interest?SKEW is probably a little less known in the world of volatility than for example the VIX, but essentially it is a measure of the implied volatility of OUT of the money options, as opposed to AT the money options on the market like the VIX. I suppose it may be a better comparison to check SKEW vs the SPY, but I'm a NASDAQ guy so I wanted to have a look at this in particular. Basically the lower the SKEW is, the lower the market's expectation that the market price will move MORE than 2 standard deviations from the current price. It's difficult to ever draw perfect correlations or conclusions, however, it does seem that once the SKEW "looks like" and this is more of an opinion of how you think the chart of the SKEW looks, but when the SKEW looks like it's made at least an interim bottom and is reversing upwards, this seems to correlate with the market/NASDAQ getting at least an interim reversal. (some instances indicated by the vertical green lines) Difficult to put into text this kind of idea, but kind of consider, if the SKEW is a measurement of the market's expectation to get a move from current price more than 2 standard deviations in the next month, then once the SKEW "bottoms out", it means that the market isn't really expecting a big move to happen in the next 30 days (this includes bearish and bullish moves btw); but when SKEW looks like it's made an interim bottom, and looks like its starting to creep back upwards, this is the point at which market sentiment is starting to shift slowly, showing as the SKEW moves back up that there is more and more expectation of a move in price more than 2 standard deviations from the current market price. It's at this point (the point of looking like a reversal off of an interim bottom in the SKEW) that I think could correlate to at least interim bottoms in the market; because we're precisely at the point at which SKEW shows us the market doesn't think we're about to get a big bearish OR bullish movement in price; and the fact we're at the point which it's just starting to creep upward again; shows us that the market is expecting SOME movement in price; but if it were going to be a sharp correction of some kind you would see the SKEW at a much higher level already, not just reversing off of what looks like a bottom. Again, correlation maybe, opinion maybe, trying to get a sense of how something like the SKEW communicates what the market itself is thinking. Food for thought.
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by TraderCaps
1
QQQ Thoughts about a big price dropThese are my thoughts for QQQ In yellow is the structure that is common in two places In green is the extension from that structure Both are very similar in length (time wise) Using this we can apply it to the second "structure" If we apply a big price drop (bars pattern) it shows a large wedge structure with three bottoms along the wedge. Short / medium term this would be very Bearish. However, long term a formation like this is setting up price for big times. The ultimate entry point if this plays out is along the bottom of the wedge (dotted line)
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Bixley
9
$QQQInvesco QQQ is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index™. The Index includes the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq based on market cap. The Invesco QQQ Trust has been delivering superior returns for several years, easily outperforming SPY and other S&P 500 funds. QQQ has been rising high for so long that it's only natural to wonder if it's due for a correction. Unless you count the very brief correction of 2020, tech stocks have been in a raging bull market for over a decade. QQQ - which tracks the NASDAQ-100 - has been a main beneficiary of that trend. According to Invesco, the average bull market lasts 4.83 years. QQQ has been mostly rising for more than twice that time. History would tend to suggest that it's in for a possible correction. So, lets take a look at the technicals. QQQ is currently sitting in a upwards channel which ended up bouncing off support on the daily. It’s a good idea to keep your eyes on this chart especially if price ends up breaking support or resistance which can give you a good idea of where the future will lie. RSI recently out of oversold territory MACD curling w/ a expectation of a continuation up. Watchlist this.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TheBlankFund
QQQ testing the $360 final support levelAs I had mentioned 8 days back on September 20th, QQQ closed almost exactly at $360 today (see the related post ). This is a very important level for the bulls to defend as it is the last level of long-term support for the QQQ based on the trend lines I have been tracking. A close of this week on Friday, October 1st below this lower support line could mean a larger and more extrapolated pullback to come in the weeks following. However, based on my technical analysis, I see this market as over-sold and a short-term recovery is expected by the end of this week. In other words, I expect the QQQ will close above this $360 level by the end of this week.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by rvirmani