QQQ to $392Trading Pattern
QQQ has formed an ascending channel which may prove to be very lucrative for derivative trading. Utilizing Elliott Impulse and Correction Waves within the support and resistance lines, Wave 4 may dip as low as $392 which is a few dollars shy of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Technical Indicators
A bearish RSI divergence has been present since the share price surpassed $400; the RSI highs retain a negative slope while the share price highs have a positive slope (both reflected in yellow). This supports the Elliott Wave Theory and ascending channel pattern as the share price is currently at, or soon approaching, the crest of Wave 3 as well as the ascending channel resistance line.
QQQ may experience a slight bump upwards indicated by the RSI line (green) which appears to be close to crossing the MA line (red) from beneath. However, due to its close proximity to overbought territory, I believe selling pressure will begin soon after as might be indicated by the MACD.
The MACD technical indicator shows a tightly wound MACD line (green) and Signal line (red). The MACD line is within dangerous territory of crossing its Signal line from above which is a bearish indicator and suggests an increase in selling pressure followed by a correction in share value.
Qqqshort
QQQ Jan 26th, after the close updateSharing my usual QQQ chart with weekly and daily levels (they get updated every Monday for Weekly and every day for Daily)
#QQQ is in an ending diagonal, bull flagging, so early next week price action is important.
Should break above or fail on a grand scale!
Below 420.50 will trigger a strong selloff down to 412!
$QQQ 2024 downside price targets + timingIt's very tough to forecast price + time and get the exact timing and price targets correct. However, I'm going to attempt to do so.
Over the next year, I expect NASDAQ:QQQ to fall somewhere between 35-50%. If the move that I'm expecting plays out, we'll be right around a 50% drawdown from the current levels.
The chart attempts to forecast time and price levels that are important over the coming year (2024). Each grey box represents a price level that should get hit within that timeframe.
Again, this is extremely hard to do accurately. Often I do these for myself just to try to anticipate large changes in trends, but I thought I'd share this publicly as it would be fun to follow along over the next year.
Essentially what I'm forecasting is one more move up before the end of the year. It should happen before Christmas, but I'm allowing myself some extra time.
Then Q1 should be extremely bearish for the markets with the largest leg down during that time. There are two scenarios that I'm looking at. Either we hit the lower targets all in one move $205-218, then bounce afterwards (this scenario would be the bottom), and we'd retest that lower range in Q4. Or, we hit $246-255 and then bounce into Q2 and fall further in Q4 marking the final bottom.
Regardless of which one plays out, you'll want to buy equities in March/April and then again in October/November.
Q2 and Q3 we should see a bounce where you'll likely want to take profits on the way up.
Let's see if it plays out as anticipated.
QQQ NEW LOWS INCOMING!Hello, fellow traders and investors! There has recently been a leg up in our bearish channel creating what we anticipate to be a lower high. There is plenty of uncertainty in the economy at the moment whether it be the wars in Russia/Ukraine or Israel/Palestine, upcoming interest rate decisions, the fed's approach to their balance sheet and applying quantitative tightening, etc...
All that to say Rise Capital believes we are at overbought levels and are actively pursuing strategies to take advantage of the bearish movement that is soon to come. We will be taking different approaches like shorting qqq, getting put contracts on qqq and buying shares of sqqq.
SHORT QQQ
Entry: 367.71
Take Profit: 342.20 (Partial profits can be taking off depending on price action)
Stop loss: 373.75
Risk/Reward: 4.3
Michael Burry Executes Massive Short of SPY and QQQIntroduction:
In recent news, renowned investor Michael Burry has made waves by executing a massive short of the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF). Burry's move has garnered significant attention, raising concerns about the future performance of these major USA stock market ETFs. This article aims to provide traders with a cautious analysis of the situation and present a call to action for those considering shorting these ETFs.
The Burry Effect:
Michael Burry, famously known for his accurate prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, made a bold move again. By shorting the SPY and QQQ, Burry is signaling his belief that the current market conditions may be overvalued or potentially face a correction. Traders should take note of his historical accuracy and consider the implications of his actions.
Understanding the Risks:
Understanding the associated risks is crucial to approach any investment decision thoroughly. Shorting ETFs like SPY and QQQ involves betting against the market's overall performance, which can be highly volatile and unpredictable. While Burry's track record is impressive, conducting independent research and analysis is essential before making investment decisions.
Considerations for Shorting:
1. Diversification: Traders should ensure their portfolios are well-diversified, spreading risk across various asset classes and sectors. Shorting ETFs like SPY and QQQ should be considered a strategic move within a broader investment strategy.
2. Risk Management: A clear risk management plan is crucial when shorting major market ETFs. Setting stop-loss orders and regularly monitoring positions can help mitigate potential losses.
3. Expert Advice: Consult with financial advisors or professionals specializing in shorting strategies. Their expertise can provide valuable insights and guidance tailored to individual trading goals and risk tolerance.
Call-to-Action: Proceed with Caution
Considering Michael Burry's recent shorting activity, traders are encouraged to proceed cautiously when contemplating short positions on SPY and QQQ. While Burry's reputation for accurate predictions is noteworthy, conducting thorough research and analysis is imperative, and assessing the potential risks and rewards associated with such trades is imperative.
Ultimately, the decision to short these significant USA stock market ETFs should be based on an individual's risk appetite, investment strategy, and market outlook. Traders should carefully weigh the potential benefits against the inherent risks, seek professional advice, and consider alternative investment options.
Conclusion:
Michael Burry's massive short of SPY and QQQ has undoubtedly sparked interest and raised questions among traders. However, it is crucial to approach such investment decisions and conduct thorough research cautiously. By considering the risks, diversifying portfolios, and seeking expert advice, traders can make informed choices that align with their individual trading goals. Remember, shorting major ETFs is a complex strategy that requires careful consideration and may only be suitable for some.
QQQ - Short Scalp OpportunityThe NASDAQ:QQQ Chart is currently displaying signs of bearish harmonics, a pattern that may suggest a downward trend. Specific downside targets, along with the stop-loss (SL) value, have been detailed on the chart for your reference.
Please proceed with caution and trade safe!
QQQ: I might be wrong (Inverted Chart)I have been a staunch bear since about March. Since the lows expected a nice bounce but that we would resume
the downtrend at some point. Nothing has convinced me that this market would not do anything besides have another
period of pullbacks, until I inverted the QQQ today. From this perspective, I cannot help but see the very real possibility
of a double top at the very least. At that point though, there is no reason we couldn't keep going and make new highs.
The macro economic conditions are not ideal in the slightest but this might be the kind of bull that is largely absent retail
and will say that way until we actually start to top. A bull, minus retail, is what this looks like. You are not having investors
capitulate easily at all. Buyers have been positioned large and they plan on staying there for a while. Very hard to say.
This is by far the hardest market to judge, that I personally have participated in. I am thinking about taking some long positions
in certain companies, maybe even the Qs but I will be doing so cautiously.
QQQ to $335 is likely what we're about to Witness!Investors who want to take advantage of what happened today can short the QQQ at the September 15, expiration and hedge with short SQQQ at the July 21 expiration. Delta neutral positions would be the best.
Check out the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Amazon and Spotify for more quality information on trading and investing.
QQQ ThoughtsJust some thoughts on NASDAQ:QQQ moving into the second half of the year.
As you can see on the posted chart:
-Gap in the daily chart around 360-361.
-Approaching 0.786 retrace from March 2020 low.
-Approaching underbelly of trendline from Feb 2020 high through multiple touch points.
-RSI entering overbought territory on the weekly timeframe. Currently overbought on the daily timeframe.
-Stochastic Oscillator just about maxed out on the weekly timeframe.
My opinion: I think there is a small amount of room left on the chart to push higher one last time to potentially fill the specified gap, move the RSI a little higher on the weekly timeframe, and tag the underbelly of the trendline. However, that is no guarantee and since we are so close I'm OK with shorting aggressively via the $NASDAQ:SQQQ. I initiated a 50% position after market close yesterday (26May2023) and I have reserved the other 50% to add if we do in fact move a little higher. This is not recommendation on my part, I'm just sharing my trading plan. I would cut my losses if we closed and confirmed over 371.50, which would be the next local top to take out. Let's see how this plays out and I will provide a follow-up later in the year.
Good luck all and happy trading.
QQQ: Imminent Tech Smack Down!Tech has been on a tare, proceeded by a rip. QQQ has gone up further than I anticipated but the market is finally showing
serious signs of exhaustion. The outrageous valuations and proclamations of a new bull market are sure fire signs of the'
end of the road. It has touched the .618 fib level and depending on how you are looking at it, even surpassed it by a bit.
Looks awfully similar to the dot com bubble. The Nasdaq fell by almost 50% before retracing over 60%, arriving slightly
above the .618 fib and then resumed its downtrend, falling another 80% from its retracement high. The market also rings
of the 1973 bear market where only a few stocks were carrying the entire market before a significant downtrend and they
never quite recovered in the same way. History points to several scenarios that all shine a light on the unusual market
behaviour and what we might expect moving forward. Many are calling for a new bull market and saying that "this time
is different." That is one phrase that you want to avoid at all costs when referencing the stock market because it always
finds a way of delivering the same results, sometimes taking more time to play out or allowing those that refuse to accept
the reality of what is to come to gloat in a the,mporay victory over those more observant and subsequently cautious investors.
I think that it will not be much longer before we see a profound shift in the market and all of the indications of economic illness
are validated by price action.
Apple Potential Selling SoonTaking a look into Apple, we have some indicators that we may see some selling here soon. It has formed a descending channel.
Indicators:
- MACD is in an average area of a bullish move before a sell off.
- RSI slightly surpassed the last high of Aug 2022 but it is still not overbought yet, we simply have room to head down if it does.
- MFI (Money Flow Index) seems to have peaked and is slightly sinking.
Comments:
We're still waiting on Apple earnings which have been pushed to May 5th for some reason. We do see a head and shoulders have formed. If we do see a sell off which would need to start soon in order to confirm the prediction, we should see a bounce in the HKEX:138 - HKEX:142 area about a month or two into selling, before heading back down. You can confirm this by looking blue arrows. The bounce typically happens in the same timeframe and percentage down after the selling has begun. Further more, this has been the longest bounce since the selling started in early 2022. This rally has about exhausted itself, especially in the face of decaying economic data.
For giggles, I overlaid the Feds Balance Sheet and amazing coincidence when the sheet explodes up, equities also exploded up. The balance sheet rises ALWAYS precedes the markets going up. Tale tale that when Apple started to sell off Feb 23rd, the balance sheet grew THEN Apple's stock prices started to rally yet again. But, as we can see the balance sheet has begun unwinding. Amazing seeing how markets have been weaker and weaker, ending in the red or flat. I believe this is a tale tale sign of another wave down.
There is more talk of banking issues, and now commercial real estate issues. Let's see what transpires by summer. The Fed all but confirmed a recession and blamed it on the banking crisis.
Long SQQQ @ 22.53I am adding onto my previous position. @ 32.50 USD.
With no regulation or reform being put in place of the current financial markets, this is one of my go to's for assets to hedge against the next "black swan" event. It's ignorant to say that the markets can maintain this current rally. Our network sees the signs within almost every continents monetary systems, as well as almost all of the highest capped countries of GDP around the world.
A crisis is on our doorstep and we aren't even confronting it. I'm hard pressed to look at any traditional stocks right now that don't at LEAST provide dividends. I will keep you updated more frequently for now.
QQQ Pulls Back But | SPY's Sectors Did Not Get Money Rotation- Yesterday i talked about when QQQ consolidates on the Daily we want to see money rotate into the SPY sectors in XLF XLV XLE or any other sectors
- What we got was SPYs sectors joined team bear when QQQ is daily consolidating so its the first convincing bear day for me
- note its only one day and QQQ chart is still very healthy, just a daily consolidation but if QQQ continues to pull back a little more and SPY also pulls back SPYs chart is not looking that great. already back into the sideways range
Stock Market Weekly Outlook | Rising Wedge Volatility coming |- QQQ Rising wedge pattern about to break soon
- QQQ bulls still in full control on daily chart daily uptrend intact
- QQQ needs to break May 9th pivot low for us to go from up trend to neutral trend
- Does XLF XLE sector join team bull when QQQ pulls back or they all pull back together?
- Size of the QQQ pull back will be most key for me next week if QQQ can hold above May 9th pivot low and bounce we can potentially head for 330 level.
AAPL: S&P500 RELATIONSHIP / PIVOT / TECHNICALS IN FAVOR OF BEARSDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have included a macro analysis of AAPL & its congruent relationship with the S&P 500 INDEX. AAPL is to be consider one of the major players when it comes to overall US MARKET PERFORMANCE & is the reason why understanding AAPL's price action momentum is so vital.
POINTS:
1. AAPL channel deviation where liquidity usually occurs between SUPPLY & DEMAND = 12.50 POINTS
2. Macro Trend: Downtrend Channel; Micro Trend: Uptrend channel with Bearish Ascending Triangle Formation
3. Macro Trend continues to make lower highs & lower lows after peak from January 2022.
TECHNICALS:
RSI LEVELS on the DAILY time frame have been squeezing into overbought territory for the past 4 months.
MACD LEVEL is in common overbought territory where rejection & downturn is indicative.
BULLISH POINT OF CONTROL: 167.50 POINT must be broken to the upside in order to invalidate BEARISH SETUP.
BEARISH POINT OF CONTROL: 155.00 POINT must be broken in order to further validate BEARISH SETUP.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:AAPL