Probability theory: Independence, Psychology: Regret theorySocial media provides access to quality content analyses, but you see rookie traders who make good money, losing it all in one trade!
In the past few days, I predicted 4 potential stocks to be candidates for the next pump and one call option with decent gains.
WISH, VLDR, QS, and OCGN, made double-digit returns, and the AAPL call option made a +100% gain. A minority of my followers invested in these ideas and won big. Those who are chasing a higher level of adrenalin bought options on some of these ideas! Now I see this phenomenon creating a bigger problem for the majority of my followers. The famous sense of FOMO(Feeling Of Missing Out). This Feeling Of Missing Out could become a dangerous situation!
How?
let me explain it from a mathematical point of view:
Probability theory: Independence
Independence is a fundamental notion in probability theory, as in statistics and the theory of stochastic processes.
Two events are independent, statistically independent, or stochastically independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other (equivalently, does not affect the odds). Similarly, two random variables are independent if the realization of one does not affect the probability distribution of the other.
When dealing with collections of more than two events, a weak and a strong notion of independence needs to be distinguished. The events are called pairwise independent if any two events in the collection are independent of each other while saying that the events are mutually independent (or collectively independent) intuitively means that each event is independent of any combination of other events in the collection. A similar notion exists for collections of random variables.
The name "mutual independence" (same as "collective independence") seems the outcome of a pedagogical choice, merely to distinguish the stronger notion from "pairwise independence" which is a weaker notion. In the advanced literature of probability theory, statistics, and stochastic processes, the stronger notion is simply named independence with no modifier. It is stronger since independence implies pairwise independence, but not the other way around.
A simple Example:
Rolling dice:
The event of getting a 6 the first time a die is rolled and the event of getting a 6 the second time is independent. By contrast, the event of getting a 6 the first time a die is rolled and the event that the sum of the numbers seen on the first and second trial is 8 are not independent.
Psychology:
What Is Regret Theory?
Regret theory states that people anticipate regret if they make the wrong choice, and they consider this anticipation when making decisions. Fear of regret can play a significant role in dissuading someone from taking action or motivating a person to take action. Regret theory can impact an investor's rational behavior, impairing their ability to make investment decisions that would benefit them as opposed to harming them.
Regret theory refers to human behavior regarding the fear of regret, which stems from people anticipating regret if they make the wrong choice.
This fear can affect a person's rational behavior, impairing their ability to make decisions that would benefit them as opposed to those that would harm them.
Regret theory impacts investors because it can either cause them to be unnecessarily risk-averse or it can motivate them to take risks they shouldn't take.
During extended bull markets, regret theory causes some investors to continue to invest heavily, ignoring signs of an impending crash.
By automating the investment process, investors can reduce their fear of regret from making incorrect investment decisions.
Conclusion:
No matter how you trade or who you follow, the odds of success in any trade are independent..! It means even though we had 5 successful trades in a row, the next one has a 50% chance of being a failure!
What saves us is Risk Management, and having a stop loss which works as emergency exits in the building!
Do not let FOMO overrule your trading strategies
Kenny Rogers:
You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away and know when to run.
Moshkelgosha
Reference:
1- en.wikipedia.org(probability_theory)
2- www.investopedia.com
QS
RYCEY ROCKETAlright, yeah, yeah, yeah Yeah believe in yourself
As 2 CHAINZ said - believe in yourself! Believe in the Rolls.
Finally we look poised to breakout to those $2 targets. Riding this breakout zone for too long!
We are all aware of the building divergence on the charts, but the sellers look gassed.
ABC seems complete, for the corrective wave B.
I am holding a conservative view and calling this an ABC up rather than w3. Again, remaining conservative for the lower fib targets for the next wave up.
TLRY :/wimpy play here, but pointing out the obvious compression after the exponential run up.
We tagged the long term trendline and are bouncing in a corrective ABC structure.
2 potential target zones identified depending on the size of this bounce.
Using other SPACs, Us major indices, and DXY as a proxy for this play, I actually favor the higher targets near $19.
Ultimately I think this compression breaks down, either using the top of the gap or filling the gap as a bounce zone at $10 before continuing higher.
More often than not you actually break out of triangle compression, but sometimes you pierce through the bottom, as I am anticipating
SHORT TERM BULLISH CCIVLooks to be following a flat wave B correction following a very bullish leading expanding diagonal from the huge wedge breakout.
targetting 1:1-1.27 C extension to complete this (assuming its corrective up).
I dont think the overall correction is over, so that's my primary theory which is conservative, defined, and modest for a 15% gain.
I take high percentage trades, and dont expect to hit homeruns.
QS - Momo playQS has been one of the momo stock of 2020. It is a solid state lithium-metal batteries manufacturer which are used in EV cars. It shows to be the most promising manufacturer out of all of the publicly traded ones.
VWAGY (another runner I posted before) is testing QS batteries. Stock dumped along with all of the meme stonks and also had rumors that a short seller was spreading calling it a pump and dump.
Insider Brad Buss (director) bought 10,000 shares on 5/26 which leads us to think, why not follow?
Looks like it will be range bound and has a chance of running to $50-70/share.
Consult your boomer financial adviser before believing pajama trader posts. You realize that literary anybody on this platform can post whatever the f* they want and it could be a 6 month old kid scribbling on screens.
Happy Memorial Day and thank a veteran or two this weekend! Don't be a drunk douche
QS DADDY IS BACKSee you've grown up and learned to be a degenerate just like your pops. not bad.
Give your dad some smokes, it's story time.
QS is one of the biggest shitshows since that time your mother got kicked out of Kokomo's on that Havasu trip.
I know you just read the Intelligent Investor and want to force feed some fundamentals or facts about batteries to me. Save it kid.
your dad has $50 riding on this bad boy, and I'm not going to let you kill my vibes.
The past few months have been tormented by complex triangles and wave five compression.
We love to see it.
It's your time to shine.
Is this financial advice? Are you a motley fool? Will your mother ever be taken off Kokomo's black list?
leverage up cowboy. QS daddy going in.
QS big targets after 27.88 resistanceI like to be safe and I believe QS just broke out that wedge but I'd like to see it go above 27.88 which will follow up by insane targets
NYSE:QS
TSLA ROLLERCOASTER AHEADIt's clear TSLA is correcting after a historic run. things dont go vertical forever. Are you new here?
I have it in wave 4 of C
Anticipating a complex correction by the rule of alternation, so wave 4 still has some time to play out completely.
It's clear wave B of the larger ABC is complete. wave C projected to the 1:1 of A to B.
given that wave 1 of C projection went REALLY deep, like almost to the 2.618, we can expect a deep wave 5 as well.
This will establish bullish divergence on the larger TFs as well.
By VPVR there's targets near the 3.618. I really dont like doing fibs this far out, but im giving it a relative zone that fits the evidence mentioned above.
it's time [update]qs bounces higher than i expected - solid bull trap. almost hit my downside target perfectly though.
update to:
ps. a move like this will take time, could take a year or two, but if you're looking for a solid long term hold, you can't really go wrong with this one.
QuantumScape Corp 🧙QuantumScape Corp is engaged in development of next generation solid-state lithium-metal batteries for use in electric vehicles.
If you want not to miss ideas like this one ,🎯 subscribe and press a thumb up! 👍 Have a question? Don't be shy to ask! 🤓 Interested to study how to analyze charts, follow me!
QS LONG entryI think an entry of $22-24 per share of QS with intentions to hold long term and take profits on the way up may be a good idea.
$QS in serious troublewoof. good luck to longs. support pounded over multiple weeks finally gives way on a short report. dropped into the volume void. no business done there so an auction to $20 seems likely.
virtually all post deal SPACs with no revenue are reverting to $10 area so $20 may be a gift.
$QS Bounced off strong support#QS This is a fantastic chart! Bouncing off strong support coming off a recent double top. Lots of room to grow.
Big day for QuantumScape coming up!We have to hold above the lower support line of this symmetrical triangle.
If we close below it on the daily, then we can expect to go even lower (the price target for the break down is very very low).
If we hold and end the day green, then we'll likely stay within the triangle, and move closer towards the 50d MA, which is when I would flip to bullish.
Watch carefully.
Buying QS 16 APR 21 30 PUTI'd like to see price hold this resistance on the daily time frame.
If price breaks and closes above $65.68, then I'll close the position and salvage what I can.
I expect price to continue to move lower and check $28.
Why did I buy puts with a $30 strike? Because price has already checked the $38 price level annotated by a check mark. I think price could push further down to the base of that price level (annotated by an up arrow) around $30 within the next 30 days.
Long | QSCAPITALCOM:QS
Possible Scenario: LONG
Evidence: Price Action
This is my idea and could be wrong 100%,
TP1 ~72, TP2 ~80
CALLS for 21 May Strike 85$
QS - Inverse Setting-UpA day-traders dream, and a solid-state wish for a sustainable energy future. If it beats the coppertop it flies long term. Short-term, there is a pattern to scout.
Buy QS under $452nd most valuable car stock in America is at a bargain right now for under $45. hold this to a target of $60
$QS QUANTUMSCAPE CORPORATION Falling Wedge Tracking$QS formed a huge Falling Wedge and recently tested the Fibo 0.786 level. EMA20 just crossed SMA50 down on 4h chart which confirms bulls have been weak for a while. RSI 14 also declines. Now I have two scenarios for breaking out of the wedge. Either retry Fib 0.786 level or start a new trend now. No matter where it does break, $QS has a potential of minimum $70+ profit per stock. Watch for break out of the wedge and buy on re-test. I don't expect and dip below $29.
little quantum shortwhile i await to take on a long term position, i'm taking a little short here for the time being :^)
