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Quadwitching

Quad Witching: Mark Your Calendar for 2024Quad-witching is a phenomenon unique to the stock and options markets, occurring four times a year. It captures a flurry of activity sparked by the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivatives contracts: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. The third Friday of March, June, September, and December marks these critical days in the trading calendar, bringing with them distinct opportunities and challenges for investors and traders alike. Quad Witching S&P 500 Index Price Drops 2023 March -1.1% June -0.37% September -1.22% December -0.1% Average Drop 0.7% The Basics of Quad Witching Quad Witching is a critical event for anyone engaged in the stock market due to its pronounced effects on market volatility. Understanding its mechanics, significance, and impact helps investors and traders navigate the complexities of financial markets. Definition of Quadruple Witching Quadruple Witching is a term used to describe the simultaneous expiration of four types of financial derivatives: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. This event happens every quarter, specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. It poses distinct considerations for market participants. Significance of Quadruple Witching Dates It is important for those who are involved in the financial markets to mark the calendar for Quadruple Witching Dates. These days witness increased trading activity as investors and traders adjust or close out their derivative positions. This period of adjustment is a display of strategic decision-making as market participants act to manage their investments before contracts expire. Impact on Market Volatility During Quad Witching, there is a simultaneous expiration of derivative contracts that can lead to higher trading volume and market volatility. Traders and investors need to be aware of the potential fluctuations in prices resulting from the amplified trading activity, which can significantly impact the short-term valuation of securities.
SP:SPXEducation
by liberatedstocktrader
1
📢 Quad witching. What is it? What to expect? How to trade it.First thing, it's actually triple-witching now. There used to be a 4th contract, but now there's only 3. 3 contracts expire on this day: Index futures (S&P, Dow) contracts Index options (i.e. SP:SPX ) contracts Stock options ( NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:NVDA etc) contracts Single stock futures contracts. They don't exist anymore. That's why it's TRIPLE witching now. This only happens in March, June, September, and December. The third Friday. For example, when you buy "AAPL 100c 9/15/23", the date is the expiration. Only if it's ITM and you're holding before close, you will have to decide to KEEP your contracts, ROLL them over, or SELL them. If you KEEP, you'll get 100 shares per contract. Now imagine $3.4T worth of contracts having to go through that on the same day. Volatility. There's $3.4T worth of contracts expiring tomorrow--- the highest ever in any September expiration, and the 6th largest ever. 10 of the last 11 September witching, SPY finished red around -0.50%. I calculated the range for SPY during the last 3 years of witching, it's around 6.5-7 points. The ATR for SPY for the last 60 days is 4.58 points. The week after September witching tends to be a rollercoaster ride. March 20, 2020 was a witching day (yes pandemic, but good to know) So what should you do? If you have no experience, do nothing. If you're **day-trading**, take your gains quickly and don't expect a lot. If you're adding to your swings, wait for good dips. Expect the highest volatility around 2-4 PM. Don't trade 0DTE. If you do, don't hold for glory. Lol. Watch for impulsive moves causing SL raids Watch the closely. It will be very telling since whales will be readjusting positions and possibly rolling/ reloading. Expect volatility. High volume on indices, major stocks, and further out option contracts (people rolling over their contracts) Expect liquidity grabs, fake outs, etc. If you don't trade it, enjoy the volatility. Watch TVC:VIX (volatility index) Don't go heavy on any positions. Buy slow, don't chase, and ask questions if unsure. Don't force trades. Don't FOMO buy. Don't chase. Don't get caught in the volatility. Use support/ resistance/ supply/ demand zones. They work best on these days as they show liquidity grabs, fakeouts, etc. Just looking out. Hope you benefitted. I'll be posting my trades in my community linked below. Welcome to come & follow.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by kingdips
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/16/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2023 - PR High: 11463.50 - PR Low: 11446.00 - NZ Spread: 39.0 Evening Stats (As of 1:25 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237) - Session Open ATR: 307.47 - Volume: 24K - Open Int: 234K - Trend Grade: Bear - From ATH: -31.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 12391 - Mid: 11820 - Short: 10678 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQH2023Long
by mv3trader5
1
2 Weeks until Quad WitchingLots of volatility possible in between now and Quad Witching in 2 weeks. Thu Dec9 30-y Auction Fri Dec 10 CPI Wed Dec 15 FOMC Fri Dec 17 Quad Witching The first 3 I don't think are going to cause much volatility, but it all depends on the result of each. The Quad Witching may be a bit more predictable. During the past 2 years, the QE+Stimulus driven markets have changed how derivatives effect market price. A side-effect makes market indexes somewhat more predictable, particularly around OPEX (options expiry). Most notable is the quad witching expiry days. The third Friday of March, June, September, December It's when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. I plotted the last 4 Quads with comments so you can see the extent of sell offs. -1.18% to -1.81%. Sept 17 -1.39% - Sell off started after a rejecting 20D MA June 18 - 1.81% - Sell off started 3am and continued to close. 20D MA to 50D MA Mar 19 - 1.24% - Volatility Overnight, 9am sell off, 10am - 3pm rally, Sell off into close. Breaking and ending on 20D MA Dec 18 - 1.20% - Overnight melt up, 9am sell off until 3pm. + %1.16 rally into close. Buy The Dip Trend. The Market forgets quickly. Overnight it seems sometimes. Pepperidge Farms Remembers. We just reentered bottom of 2yr trading channel MSM caught wind of the OPEX buy the dip trend. VIX Structure To help with entry of my puts / UVXY I refer to the VIX structure a week or 2 in advance. Not Financial Advice. A 007 Trading Journal.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
SPX: High volatility in this Quad Witching Day!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today! The volatility is quite high, thanks to the Quad Witching , but we can find some sense of this crazy market using Price Action. The SPX it is doing a Double Bottom chart pattern in the 1h chart, but the situation is still delicate. If it loses the previous support, then it’ll ruin the pattern and the index will become slightly bearish for the next few days. However, if it reacts near this double bottom, it’ll resume the bullish momentum in the daily chart. Speaking of daily chart: It is frustrating because we are losing the purple line for the first time. Maybe the 6th time is the charm, as we thought. However, keep in mind that we are losing the trendline without bearish structure. Again, only if we lose for good the support at 4,435 in the 1h chart we might see a bearish reaction lasting for a few more days. Surely, the bull trend got weaker, but this is all we can assume for now. Since it is Quad Witching day, I prefer to wait for more confirmation next week. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates! See you on Monday. Have a good weekend!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
13
SPX: Weekly Outlook and Targets.Hello traders and investors! As it is Friday, let’s do our usual Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA) and try to understand what’s going on with the market. Today the index is falling sharply, and it is losing its support around the red line. Also, it is triggering a bearish pivot , resuming the bear trend and making SPX seek further supports, which short sellers can use as targets. The targets can be seen on the daily chart: Since I don’t believe the yellow line will hold the price, the next targets for SPX are the red line, then the blue line. I explained the reasons why I believe in a sharper pullback on yesterday’s analysis, which is one of the most interesting analyses I ever did here on Tradingview , I really recommend the reading. Link below. Also, it is interesting to notice that the yellow line, if lost, will trigger another bearish pivot in the daily chart , along with the one seen in the hourly chart. These two pivots in different time frames reinforces the odds of a pullback. As long SPX trades under the 21 ema, it will remain in bear territory, and we don’t see any clear reversal sign. Now, let’s see the weekly chart: The index is falling more than 1% this week, and since this Dark Cloud Cover started the bearish movement, SPX could do a simple pullback to its 21 ema, which coincides with the previous resistance at 3232 (purple line). This pullback would be a natural movement and wouldn’t spoil the long-term bull trend. Also, the 3232 is an intermediary point between the next two supports seen in the daily chart, making it a reasonable target for SPX in the mid-term. Let’s see if it will be hit in the future! And if you found this analysis interesting, please, support it! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses! Either way, stay safe, and happy Quadruple Witching!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
7
Changing trendSPY opened up euphorically, up 2.9% at it's high for the day. Strong 2 way trade ensued as expected (noted yesterday). Index closed up 1.3%, but much lower than the open. Thursday's strong down trend day was followed by sell into strength of Friday. Rips were sold, dips were grudgingly bought. SPY was down as much as 0.6% before buyers closed up the index for the day. For the week, SPY lost 5%. Almost an outside week. 300 held like a champ, through 2 tests. 4 day island top is big resistance. RSI is at 51.97%. When below 50% I expect deeper sell-off. Quad witching is coming Friday. Last quad witching was on Mar 15, a strong down week, Indicator divergence is notable on the chart.
AMEX:SPYShort
by insyyte
8