Qualcomm
USDCAD bearish divergenceThanks for viewing,
Just a quick one to say that there is some quite strong RSI divergence apparent on the daily timescale - a higher high compares with a (much) lower RSI peak. Maybe you have some reasons to be bullish on the USD right now - I don't.
- Recent 0.5% emergency rate cut and expectation of another 0.25 - 0.5% cut next week - Early last week many saw negative interest rates as impossible - not so much towards the end of the week though. Cramer, Gundlach and others now envisage near term negative rates,
- 10 year treasuries now WELL under 1% nominal return - this is already a negative real rate of return, The only possible way to make money off these instruments is in the hope that yields go to zero or lower, because rate increases during the duration of the instrument would wipe out significant value.
- The US President has raised USD devaluation as a possibility as well as calling for lower and lower interest rates. Luckily for him, the US Fed has come to believe that it is their role to support the stock market so he will gt his wish - no matter the downstream implications for the US.
- Ok, I am going off track for a bit. It is becoming evident just how badly managed the C****-19 outbreak is being handled in the US (especially Washington State - which has gone from containment to triage / management of the outbreak) with cases well on their way to going geometric - By the way; what large manufacturer is based in Washington State that will be affected by a freezing up of global travel, financing and has already had a string of super negative stories preceding this outbreak? The CDC that is so effective in containing an outbreak on the movies blocked testing for weeks, produced a flawed test that has had to be recalled, might just have produced an semi-effective test that will enable testing of the virus that is already out of control. The only way to stem the spread now is to enforce mandatory and aggressive social distancing, testing, and contact tracing (Singapore has seemingly prevented exponential growth at this point - as well as producing a 99% effective test that takes 3 hours). Clearly putting someone who doesn't believe in science in charge of a task-force trying to counteract a fast mutating, fast spreading virus is not helping and may cost hundreds and possibly thousands of people their lives - if you don't believe me just wait until the cases pass 1 million in the US which will likely be in late April to early May (this is someone else's prediction - not my own). Canada will undoubtedly also be affected, but it will respond appropriately and recover sooner. Soon we in the US will know definitively why a single payer healthcare system isn't socialism - but is just essential in a wealthy democratic society. In Canada people do not have to face bankruptcy if they get sick, they get paid sick days, they have a proper employment contract (I was blown away when I found out from people that worked on Wall Street for one of the largest Companies (at that time that they had "at will" contracts - meaning that even after years of dedicated service they could be terminated without notice and did not get paid sick leave). In the US people will avoid healthcare even when they are sick, even if they are employed and have insurance (because some cannot afford the co-pays and out of pocket expenses) resulting in people infecting their co-workers. There are some pretty fundamental structural reasons why the US is expected to not do as well as Singapore, Canada, or Hong Kong in the context of a extremely easily communicable virus. So, what I am saying is that there are several reasons for people to have the perception that the US is likely to be more impacted by this virus and very possibly is also incompetently run. No one wants any of this to happen, including me.
LONG
- I am long on gold and silver - assessing Platinum in case of mine closures, Unfortunately mining stocks may not be the winning trade in these circumstances (lower energy costs will help (energy intensive), but freezing up of corporate credit (credit intensive industry), potential virus induced mine shut-downs (labour intensive), and a general sell-off in equities may mean they remain a risky trade in the short-term).
-Gold because I wanted to diversify away from fiat currency due to the certain dramatic expansion of the money supply / quantitative easing coming and possible helicopter drops is bullish for gold - the more money printed the more gold has to appreciate in $ terms to account for that - plus I like gold and there are very few safe havens left. I will not be selling gold when the crisis is over but will retain it as unsurance (insurance for when you are unsure and as protection against larger systemic crises with fiat currency or a potentially insolvent Government). Presently around 25% of assets are in gold (which I admit is possibly a bit much) and another 8% in silver.
-Silver for the same reasons as gold, and because the % upside is potentially greater, and because I believe that the goldsilver ratio points to historic significant undervaluation of silver relative to gold. If / when the goldsilver ratio dips below 45 (currently 96) I will trade silver for gold - buying silver as a way to get more gold. Bullionstar in Singapore has some great offers - and low storage fees.
-Platinum because it is a strategic metal in US industry and defence and domestic sources cannot fulfil US demand. 75% of supply is from South Africa and Southern Africa and is susceptible to labour, electricity supply issues. Potential play for Canadian and US platinum miners -but not yet.
I am long some equities - but only unloved undervalued ones (hard to find these days) that have good fundamentals and solid revenue streams.
SHORT
- I am short USDCAD, USDCHF (flight to safety), and crude oil since it broke below $50, because of cratering demand - OPEC can not cut deeply enough to impact price without drastically cutting their national income.
- I am short treasuries in that I wouldn't touch them under any circumstances. They currently guarantee a negative real return and are becoming more and more risky in my view,
- I am short S&P500 and a number of individual Companies heavily exposed to supply chains in China (e.g. Qualcomm) or dependent on a majority of their revenue streams from China (e.g. Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands - both get more than 50% of their revenue from China), and some Airlines, also some Oil and Gas Companies.
QUALCOMM IS A STRONG BUY NASDAQ:QCOM price action has defined a ascending triangle, a strong breakout and bounce after the retest confirms the market structure is in play.
The trade opportunity is to bet long entries from $87- $90 , the measure profit target is at $150 with a stop loss at $80.
this trade idea is validated if price trade below the ascending (green) trendline. it also important to note that this structure is formed on a HTF which will mean a start of a bullish run for this stock
QUALCOMM INC (QCOM), How Support/Resistance Zones works...Just check how the Support/Resistance Zones works and how many times the price bounced from it.
We can make our predictions using such strong zones and trade it properly and safely.
Push like if you think this is a useful idea!
Before to trade my ideas make your own analyze.
Write your comments and questions here!
Thanks for your support!
QCOM 5GWith 5G release imminent, Qualcomm aims to be one of the biggest exporters of this service, behind Huawei. This bullish fundamental analysis is also based on present chart patterns including a bull flag on the daily chart, a clear parabolic uptrend, a LARGE bump and run, a bullish MACD, and a possible break above the mirror top level that was provided by the previous massive bull run. Will QCOM soar?
Qualcomm to drop by 15% ? Possibly even 25-30% within the year?Qualcomm overall is a solid company and usually performs bullish in the longer holding time frame..
BUT....
I have seem to come across some shorter to mid time frame bearishness.
First I' noticed QCOM forming a Head & Shoulders with weak looking shoulders that decline from the L.shoulder over to the R.shoulder. A gap also occurred from the L.shoulder over to the R.Shoulder within the same price region showing weakness here.
On Balance Volume shows that there are low exchanges of hands and could be signaling weak buying power and a sell off to come.
OBV to price also shows a Bearish Divergence.
Last but not least, we seem to be in the process of forming a descending triangle (iHVF) with flat bottoms and that is low slung.
Only sign of slight bullishness would be in the weekly time frame in which QCMON is bouncing within a channel that we seem to be within the bottom region of. QCOM has exited this channel before but usually tends to be extremely volatile when done so. Could this be a sign of another series of hyper volatility and a hint of the temporary health of the overall market?
QCMON to see around $48 soon and possibly even mid $30's within the year
MOONSHOT - attacking the most violent stock on earth!Qualcomm is probably the most violent stock on the planet. The resent trip to the moon was a result of the signing of a truce with Apple (APPL). Apple - the giant - had sued Qualcomm for $30 billion in an overcharging dispute. Qualcomm had fired back with a paltry $7 Billion counter-suit for lost payments. They settled their dispute and investors went into a frenzy.
But have a look at this chart on any time frame. It's not just about the recent lawsuit. I've never seen such volatility before, in all my years.
So - how does one exploit this. Volatility is supposed to be essential to making money in markets - right? Errrh.. so why is this one gonna scare a lot of people?
The problem is in finding entry and exit positions! Those with keen eyes, have a look at the amber ATR indicator. Nearly every time there is a Grade A trend switch, $$ should flash in your eyes! It then becomes simple. The trend could decide your entry and exit points! No predictions!
Now the challenge is to find a suitable trend switch on the recent moonshot! Note the folly of shorting on ridiculously high or low RSIs. On this chart the RSI peaked most recently at 95.
Taiwan Semiconductor (Reversal)TSM is moving towards a key resistance level which could in-turn create a reversal. That level is just under $39.00. Big tech companies are anticipating the release of 5G, so most if not all mobile devices will have capabilities and Qualcomm which is a customer of TSM will be producing a lot of chips.
QCOM Earnings: Test of 2-year ResistanceQCOM looks like it wants to test it's 2 year support at the $50 mark. Secondary support is somewhere around $43. QCOM is coming off of a finished head and shoulders pattern, making its D leg downward. Typically a D leg is finished by a sharp reversal. In case of negative earnings, QCOM will likely drop well below the $50 support and have a sharp reversal upward. If earnings are positive, QCOM will likely bounce off the $50 support and make a less drastic reversal upward. Fisher transform also indicates the potential for an upward reversal. With QCOM's extreme debt levels, the FED put will serve them well going forward.
CALL YOUR BROKER, BLOCK "SHARE LOANING" TO SHORT SELLERS!Hello folks,
THIS GOES FOR ALL PUBLIC COMPANIES, NOT JUST TESLA - PLACE A BLOCK ON YOUR ACCOUNT(S)
Many may not be aware of this corrupt Wall Street loophole, when you sign a brokerage account, fine print in your contract allows the brokerage firm to loan out your shares to short sellers.
It's like buying a Rolls-Royce and you paying the loan, and the company turns around and loans the car out to another person while you are not driving the car and profiting off both sides at your expense.
Stopping Short Sellers from accessing your shares will stop a lot of the market turmoil.
Wall Street Corruption at some point must stop.
Don't wait, call your broker and DEMAND IT, they will be very surprised you are asking them and hesitant to freeze your shares.
THEY MUST FREEZE YOUR SHARES ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE A CASH ACCOUNT! DO NOT TAKE NO AS AN ANSWER!!!
IF YOU HAVE A MARGIN ACCOUNT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE ACCOUNT IS WORTH, IF THEY DO NOT WANT TO LOSE YOU AS A CUSTOMER, THEY WILL FREEZE SHARE LOANING ON YOUR MARGIN ACCOUNT TOO.