GOVT ETF: Bullish Reversal on the Horizon?The GOVT ETF, representing U.S. Treasury Bonds, shows signs of a potential bullish reversal, according to our proprietary QuantEdge Momentum System.
Key Indicators:
Z-Score:
The Z-Score has surged to 1.60, signaling an overextension to the downside in the past months. This indicates that the recent downward momentum might be exhausted, leading to a possible trend reversal.
Z-Score of RSI:
The Z-Score of RSI at 1.72 shows a significant bullish momentum shift. This suggests that the asset might be gaining strength, with buyers stepping in to push prices higher. The crossing above 0 confirms that bullish sentiment is currently prevailing.
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD):
The CVD indicator reflects a strong buying pressure, as demonstrated by the marked shift from deep negative territory (-451,481,504) towards a less pronounced negative reading. This shift suggests that the selling pressure has weakened, and buyers are beginning to dominate the market.
Price Action:
The price has broken above the green momentum cloud, signaling a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. Given the alignment of other indicators, this could be the beginning of a bullish phase for GOVT.
Projection:
Over the next quarter, GOVT is likely to experience a bullish correction, driven by strong buying momentum. The ETF could target resistance levels in the $25.00-$26.00 range if the current momentum continues. The Z-Score and RSI suggest that the upside could be substantial as the ETF looks to recover from recent losses.
However, caution is warranted if the Z-Score or RSI starts to diverge negatively, as it could indicate the potential for a correction or consolidation before resuming the uptrend. Monitoring these indicators will be crucial to confirm the strength of the reversal.
Based on the proprietary QuantEdge Momentum System, GOVT appears poised for a bullish quarter. Investors looking to capitalize on U.S. Treasury Bonds might find this an opportune time to consider GOVT as a potential buy.
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SPTM Prepare for Consolidation or Pullback in the Coming QuarterThe SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market ETF (SPTM) has shown impressive performance over the past months, driven by a general bullish market sentiment. However, as we approach the next quarter, key indicators from the QuantEdge Momentum System suggest that the ETF might face significant resistance, leading to a potential period of consolidation or even a pullback.
Key Technical Insights:
Z-Score Analysis:
The Z-Score currently stands at 0.7583, indicating that the price of SPTM is trading above its historical mean. However, this value is nearing a threshold where the momentum might start to slow down. This suggests that while the ETF has experienced an uptrend, the room for further gains could be limited unless there is a strong bullish breakout.
Z-Score of RSI:
The Z-Score of RSI is in the negative territory (-0.9841), which is a divergence from the positive price Z-Score. This indicates that the momentum behind the uptrend is weakening. RSI being below its average typically signals that buying pressure is diminishing, which could result in a stagnation or decline in price.
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD):
The CVD reflects a higher level of selling pressure, with cumulative volume favoring sellers. This is another warning sign that the upward momentum might be unsustainable in the short term.
Projection for the Next Quarter:
Given the mixed signals from the proprietary QuantEdge Momentum System, it is likely that SPTM could encounter resistance near current levels. Traders should be cautious as the ETF might enter a consolidation phase or experience a pullback during the next quarter. The weakening RSI momentum and increasing selling volume suggest that upside potential is limited unless there is a significant catalyst to drive prices higher.
For traders, this is a crucial moment to assess risk and possibly secure gains from the previous uptrend. Those looking to enter new positions may want to wait for a clearer breakout signal or consider short-term trades based on confirmed support levels.
Stay vigilant and adjust your strategies according to the evolving market conditions. The QuantEdge Momentum System will be your guide to navigate the upcoming volatility in SPTM.
Rob Smith - smithintheblack - Quant Edge learning11/26/17 – Bias: Neutral. Outside bullish month and week up.
Momentum inside hammer in August.
Inside week 9/11/17. Tried to go higher in
September, long upper shadow. Rev Strat
Weekly Down Under 79.68. We will see what
December brings. 4 consecutive bearish months.
Has not made a lower low since 01/01/16 at 68.33.
Rob Smith - smithintheblack - Quant Edge learning11/26/17 – Outside bullish month and week up.
Momentum inside hammer in August.
Inside week 9/11/17. Tried to go higher in
September, long upper shadow. Rev Strat
Weekly Down Under 79.68. We will see what
December brings. 4 consecutive bearish months.
Has not made a lower low since 01/01/16 at 68.33.
Rob Smith - smithintheblack - Quant Edge learning11/26/17 – November, outside month up, bullish month.
2 inside bullish months within September. There is no
argument that this currency is going up. Railroad tracking
the 20 & 40 up since June 2016. Timeframe continuity.
There is no actionable signal to believe the price is headed
down. With a continued bullish move we can expect target
areas of 132.50-136 to 144. Higher highs and higher
lows since 03-06-17, 9 months
Rob Smith - smithintheblack - Quant Edge learning11/26/17 – November, outside month up, bullish month.
Timeframe continuity to the upside. Outside month,
week, and day up, we will see what new actionable
signals December brings. There is no argument that
the price is not moving up. A sustained December
move above 86.38 is bullish to the top of the triangle
with a target area of 89ish. Then we can potentially
get into the 88, 89, 92, and 95 and 97ish areas.
Rob Smith - smithintheblack - Quant Edge learning11/26/17 – November, outside month and weeks down, bearish sentiment.
Full timeframe continuity. Possibly going to bottom end of triangle,
91ish area. We will see what the beginning of December brings but
there will be a lot of work required to make it back up to top end of
triangle. There is no argument that the price is moving downward.
Rob Smith - smithintheblack - Quant Edge learning11/26/17 – Bias: Neutral. Conflicted with inside month
of November, inside month up, and outside up week.
4 inside weeks within the bearish month
of August. Week of 11/20, Outside week up. We will
must wait and see what actionable signals December
Brings. A move over 77.86, I would be bullish, and a break
Below 76.90 and then 76.37, I would be more bearish than
bullish.