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Quantguy

Two Factors Contributing to a Stronger Dollar this WeekThe US dollar has soared against major currencies. Strikes in the UK have exacerbated existing supply chain issues impacting GBP/USD, and fears about the European energy crisis has sent the Euro plummeting back below parity. Additionally, increased expectations for a more hawkish Fed have contributed to higher yields, also boosting the dollar strength. We have already hit our target of 108.50, but some red triangles on the KRI are starting to indicate resistance here. If we can break through this target, we have a high at 109.28 or so, then the next target is 109.86. If we retrace, then 107.20 should provide support.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
What Factors Will Weigh on Stocks This Week?Stocks have opened in the Asian session in the red, as the European energy crisis and hawkish Fed expectations weigh on the markets. Additionally, we have several stocks cutting dividends and also several downgrades. We are currently just below 4188, where we anticipated support. We are just above 4178, the next level down, at the time of this writing. If things continue to go south, then we should have further support deeper in the 4100's, 4122 in particular. If we can muster the strength for a rally, then 4214 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold Tumbles Through Major Support LevelsGold has plummeted, smashing through significant levels of support. We have broken through the 50% Fibonacci level at 1750, and are testing lower levels in the 1700's. Currently, we are in the 1740's and should see support from 1742 or 1747. The Kovach OBV has steadily declined, confirming the bear trend. If things continue in this manner then we should have support from 1729, teh .236 Fibonacci level. If we can muster the strength for a relief rally, the 50% Fibonacci level at 1780 is our next target.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Two Reasons Why Bitcoin PlummetedBitcoin has plummeted, likely due to a stronger dollar, and hawkish Fed expectations. Wednesday's Retail Sales data demonstrated the impact of high inflation, and the probability of another 75bps rate hike is about 50%. We smashed through $22.4K, and are hovering in the range between $20.7K and $22.4K. The Kovach OBV took a very sharp turn down, and we will see if momentum will continue, or if we can hold current levels. We are seeing some greent triangles on the KRI which could indicate a pivot, but we will need more momentum to follow through.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
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Stocks Facing ResistanceStocks have steadily drifted down from highs at 4327. Retail sales data on Wednesday confirmed the impact that high inflation is having on the economy, and investors are fearing another 75bps rate hike in September. We are seeing a lot of resistance at current levels confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. However, we are also seeing support at 4245, at least for now. If we fall further, then 4188 should be considered a floor for now. We must break out past 4327 to solidify higher levels, which likely won't happen until next week at the earliest.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold Slides SteadilyGold is on a steady bear trend, after rejecting the 1800's. We have smashed through multiple support levels in the upper 1700's, in particular from 1780, the 50% Fibonacci level. Currently, we are hovering in the 1760's, just a few ticks above 1758, the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This will provide support if gold slips further. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but we are due for a relief rally, even if it is just a technical move. If so, 1780 is a reasonable target.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bitcoin Breaks SupportBitcoin has broken down through support at $23.9K. We have been teasing this level for a while now, and finally broke through. We anticipated lower prices, as several attempts at higher prices, including $25.1K have failed swiftly. We are currently in the vacuum zone above $22.4K. The Kovach OBV has slumped, indicating that momentum has petered out for now. We need some buyers to return to the table before anything significant happens. If so, $23.9K and $25.1K should provide steep resistance. From below $22.4K should provide support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Oil Struggles to Recover $90Oil seems to have bottomed out at $85.55. We saw good support from green triangles on the KRI, and a subsequent pivot back to the high $80's. We are now just below $90, with $90.06 in particular being the level to break before attaining higher levels. We should see significant resistance there. The Kovach OBV is bearish and keeps pressing lower. If we fail to test the $90's, then $85.55 should provide support, with the next support levels below including $84.75 and $83.76.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Retail Sales Dampen StocksStocks have slipped a bit from their week-long rally. Retail sales data confirmed the impact inflation is having on consumers, justifying the current Fed interest rate trajectory. The probability of another 75bps rate hike is above 50%. A retracement from highs was due, as higher highs were increasingly more labored. We gave up the 4300's, after making it as high as 4327. We then retraced the mid 4200's, currently just above our support level at 4245. If we retrace further, 4188 should surely provide support. The Kovach OBV appears to have topped off. Watch the open to see if more momentum comes through today.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
How Will Retail Sales Effect Stocks Today?Stocks have pushed higher, spiking up to our level at 4327. However, we have retraced back to the high 4200 handle. The rally appears to be growing weaker. We have some risk off news including Tencent, the Chinese tech firm reporting negative revenue for the first time in history. We also have retail sales at 8:30AM EST, which another data point the Fed will be looking at. A softer reading will weaken the Fed's case to aggressively hike rates, though the headline is only expected at 0.1% . If we do retrace, then 4272 is a reasonable level to expect support, with 4188 a likely floor. If we break out, then 4350 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Bitcoin Clings to SupportBitcoin is back to support after an attempt at a rally got batted down at $25.1K. We saw another brief attempt that could not even make it past $24.4K before immediately retracing back to support. The level $23.9K appears to be holding, the failed attempts at higher levels could be a bearish sign. The Kovach OBV is roughly level, but does appear to be increasing slightly. If we do see a rally, $25.1K is the level to break before considering higher levels. If support gives out then $22.4K is the next target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
The DXY Holds the Range Ahead of Retail SalesThe US dollar has stabilized in the range it has established between 106.13 and 107.20. We are sitting in the mid 106's at the time of this writing. The market is likely awaiting retail sales data at 8:30AM EST before making a significant move. If numbers come in soft, then this could dampen the Fed's hawkish stance. We are still anticipating a 50% bps hike in September, and this has already been priced in, but a weaker forward guidance may weaken the DXY. Expect support at 106.13 then 105.78 and 105.25.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
Can Ethereum Test $2K Again?Ethereum has retraced after rejecting the $2K's. We hit our target of $2025, then dramatically retraced back to support from a cluster of levels in the high $1800's, giving up the $1900's as well. We are seeing strong support forming at $1872, confirmed by multiple green triangles on the KRI. If support does not hold, we expect $1748 to be a floor price for now. If we pivot from here, $2K should be considered a hard upper bound for now, and significant barrier to a rally.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy