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Quantguy

Stocks Press LowerStocks pressed lower as we anticipated yesterday. The S&P 500 was hanging on by a thread yesterday at 3825, and sure enough, support caved, and we were able to test lower levels. We crossed a vacuum zone to find support at 3758. We currently appear to be finding support there, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. If support does not hold here, we anticipate 3658 or 3645 to hold as a floor. If we are able to rally, then watch for resistance at 3825, with 3937 a likely ceiling.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Relief Rally in GoldGold broke down into the value area between 1815 and 1795, but swiftly spiked back to 1826, where we are seeing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, but we are starting to look oversold as both Kovach momentum indicators are bearish. We will see if the spike back to 1826 can sustain, or if it is just a relief rally. If momentum sustains then 1836 and 1851 are the next targets. Otherwise, we expect it to stabilize between 1795 and 1815.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Clings to SupportLitecoin gained considerable strength, but topped out just below our level at $61.75. Recall that from the previous report, we anticipated this as a ceiling. Sure enough, we rejected this level and have fallen through $55.84 to find support at $51.92. We are seeing good support at this level, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. However, the lack of buying interest and follow through with a pivot are concerning. The Kovach OBV has slumped so if we do not see any momentum come through, then we may penetrate through to the vacuum zone below. The next level of support below is $45.48.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
7
Ethereum SlumpsEthereum topped out at our level at $1235, which was our target from the last report. Momentum quickly faded and we have since rejected that level. Currently, the price action is meandering in the value area between $1017 and $1235, however the price action is rounding off, and there is little buying interest. We should see support from $1017 should we fall further, but for now we are seeing good support at $1100. If we can pivot here, then $1235 should hold as a ceiling for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Looking WeakBitcoin appears to have peaked for now just shy of $22K. There is very little buying interest at what would seem to be fire sale prices with respect to prices from just a few months ago. The price action is rounding off and the Kovach OBV is still hugging lows. Additionally, the contractionary GDP figure is likely to weigh on stocks which is not likely to help at all. We have broken the support level at $20.7K, and $20K is hanging by a thread. If that caves, we should see support in the $19K's, with $17K the floor for now. If we do see momentum come through, then $22.4K is a likely ceiling.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
GDP to Weigh on StocksStocks took a dive from the high 3900's. We identified 3909 as a likely target in the previous report, and a brief rally was able to hit this target and then some, coming just shy of the 4000 handle, and retracing just shy of a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the selloff from the 4000's back in early June. We have since retreated to support at 3825, which is a relative high and strong technical level from a relative high on June 15th. We appear to be hanging on by a thread and the Kovach OBV has slumped. If momentum does not pick up, then we could test lows at 3645. US first quarter GDP came out contractionary , and the second quarter is not looking much better. Recall that two quarters of shrinking GDP is what many use as the definition of a recession.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
DXY Bear Wedge PatternThe DXY has continued its range in the low 104's. We are seeing good support from 104.00, but strong resistance from 104.53 and 104.83, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. Lower highs seem to indicate we are forming a bear wedge pattern, with the lower bound at 104.00. If support does not hold, then watch the vacuum zone below to 103.24. If we catch a bid, then 104.53 and 104.83 are the next targets. After that, we have 105.25, which is the last level before highs at 105.78.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
Stocks Testing Relative HighsThe S&P 500 has steadily risen, though this rally looks very weak. We have gredually made higher highs, and are currently encroaching upon a relative high at 3825. The Kovach OBV appears quite bullish, which could indicate there is more in the tank for stocks. If we are able to breakout further, we could solidify the mid 3800's, with 3909 a likely ceiling. Since we are at relative highs, watch for momentum at open. If it is insufficient to break through current levels, then a retracement is likely with 3758 a likely support level and 3645 a likely floor.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold Tests Lower LevelsGold is encroaching upon lower levels of support as we predicted yesterday. It has steadily trended downward, though spikes in volatility have tested higher levels. We are seeing good support from 1826, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has been steadily down trending, but appears to be leveling off, suggesting support may hold, but if not, 1815 is the next target. Recall that there is a value area between 1795 and 1815. If we break out, then 1836 and 1851 are the next targets.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
3
S&P 500 Breakout??The S&P 500 has continued to range establishing an upper bound at 3792, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We have been edging up with higher lows, and volatility has consolidated suggesting we are gearing up for a breakout. The Kovach OBV is still pretty bullish, suggesting a bullish divergence and possible bull breakout. If so, we must clear 3825 before attempting higher levels. The level 3792 is providing strong resistance and if we fail to break it at open we are likely to reject it in which case 3694 is a likely target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold Tests the Lower $1800'sGold broke out through the vacuum zone after edging down in the lower 1800's. We tested 1826, though multiple green triangles on the KRI started to indicate that the selloff was encumbered. This suggested a break out was near and subsequently we hit 1851. Recall that we can expect increased resistance starting at this level through the mid 1850's and that is exactly what we saw. After hitting 1851, we immediately rejected it and plummeted back to 1826. If we fall further, watch for support at 1815, then there is a value area between 1795 and 1815.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Ethereum Clings to $1KEthereum has sold off with the rest of the crypto market, but is maintaining the broad range between $1017 and $1235. We were running into resistance below $1235, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI, and were unable to even reach $1235 or even $1200. Currently, we are finding support in the low $1K's, and we anticipate $1017 to hold as a lower bound. The Kovach OBV was starting to pick up potentially suggesting a bull divergence, but has slumped with the selloff. If $1017 does not hold, we should find further support in the $900's.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Recession Fears Impact BitcoinBitcoin sold off with stocks, testing the lower $20K's. It is hanging onto the $20K handle by a thread. Despite the stock selloff, we were starting to see increased resistance in the low $20K's confirmed by red triangles on the KRI and were unable to test even the first level of the $20K's at $22.4K. The Kovach OBV has slumped, suggesting we will not make another attempt any time soon. If it dumps further, then we should see support at $19K with a floor at $17K. If we are somehow able to break $22.4K, then $23.9K is the next target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Stocks Dump on Recession FearsStocks have taken a dive, off renewed recession fears. We anticipated resistance at highs, and if you recall from yesterday, we surmised that if momentum was insufficient to break the relative highs at the time, a dump was likely. That is exactly what happened. We were barely able to peak above 3758, but failed to test the next level at 3792. Subsequently, we slid back to 3694, where we are currently seeing some support. We could see a further selloff to lows, however, it is likely that stocks will range between 3645 and 3792.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Holds the Low $50'sLitecoin has rallied, finding resistance at $55.84 but forming a bull flag type pattern. We are getting good support from the next level down at $51.92, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has flattened, suggesting we will need more momentum to come through before LTC is able to break the range either way. If bull momentum comes through we will need to break $55.84 then we can consider the $60's. If it breaks down, watch the vacuum zone to $45.48.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy