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Quantguy

Ethereum Testing Lower LevelsEthereum wavered in the low $1800's before selling off back down to the mid $1700's. We dove into the vacuum zone between $1821 and $1748, and are currently hovering about the midpoint, around $1760 at the time of this writing. We appear to be establishing value here, but weakness in the OBV appears to have set in, as it has bottomed out again. Our absolute low appears to be at $1717 or $1694, so watch out for another selloff. If we break these lows, we are free to test lower levels in the $1600's, which may need to happen before we get more buying interest.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Ethereum Seeks LowsEthereum has solidly rejected relative highs around $2K, and made a nose dive to seek out lows established during the selloff on May 12th. On that date, we had a wick extend down to the base of the $1700 handle, with several support levels above that to provide a buffer as we saw at the end of May. In particular, $1717 and $1748 seem to be holding nicely, and we are currently feeling out the range between $1748 and $1821. The Kovach OBV has slumped, suggesting that we will need more momentum to come through before considering higher levels, but $1906 should be an upper bound for now. In the event of a selloff, consider the aforementioned levels for support with $1695 as an absolute floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
2
We were Skeptical of the Bitcoin Rally...We warned readers that the Bitcoin rally may be short lived and that we were skeptical of the bull run. Sure enough, Bitcoin gave up up the $30K's where it appeared to be establishing value and collapsed right back down to the high $29K's. It is currently in the value area that it had held for two weeks, after the huge selloff on May 12th. The Kovach OBV is still relatively flat, so Bitcoin is likely to hold this range, between $27.9K and $31.0K until more momentum comes through either way.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Stocks Finding Support?Stocks have retraced, hitting our exact target of 4068 and finding support. Recall that this was the head of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that failed mid May. Failed inverse H&S patterns are usually bearish omens and stocks were in the doldrums for basically the rest of May. However toward the end of the month, we were able to break out, but 4068 remains a strong level. We were able to make a run for 4200, but met resistance and retraced. Currently we are ranging in the vacuum zone between 4068 and 4122. The S&P 500 may attempt to establish here. If we retrace further watch the vacuum zone below to 4009. The high just below 4214 should serve as a ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Holds Narrow RangeLitecoin has leveled off around $68. We were able to break past two strong levels at $64.37 and $66.94, before momentum petered out. We are currently holding a very narrow range just above $66.94. We have a bit of a vacuum zone up to $73.62. We do not feel that LTC has enough in the tank to even cross the vacuum zone to attempt this level, but if it does, $73.62 should hold as a hard upper bound. If those levels in the $60's do not hold, there is a vacuum zone below them down to $55.84, the low of the selloff on the May 12th.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Ethereum Unable to Hold $2KEthereum has topped out just below our level at $2025. It seems that the $2K's are still a barrier, and we have since retreated to comfort in the high $1900's. The Kovach OBV appeared to be edging up, but has since retreated with the retracement. We should see good support from $1906, and there are two more levels below in the $1800's: $1872 and $1821, before we have a vacuum zone back down to lows. If we are able to break out and clear $2025, then $2087 is a relative high, then we can attempt $2143 again, which we anticipate to hold as a ceiling for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
Oil Rally Lets off the GasOil has retraced a bit, after a fresh burst of momentum took us past 116. We appeared to be gunning for 122, but lost momentum in the middle of the vacuum zone, with several red triangles on the KRI suggesting that the rally was encountering resistance in this area. Subsequently, we smashed through 116, finding support just above 113. Currently, we are meeting resistance from 116. We are still bullish of oil, but it may range around these relative highs before momentum reignites.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Momentum Fades for StocksStocks appear to have topped out for now just under our level at 4214. We've since retraced, finding support at 4122, just above the vacuum zone to 4068. We are seeing several green triangles on the KRI which confirm the support. It seems that stocks are ranging and establishing value between 4122 and 4178. Optimistically, we might be forming a bull flag pattern, however the Kovach OBV has slumped, suggesting we will need more momentum to come through to break out of it. If so, we must break through 4214 before we can hit our next target of 4306. If support does not hold, watch the vacuum zone below to 4068.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Litecoin Picks Up!Litecoin has gained strength with the rest of the crypto market off of the stock market rally. We saw a rounding bottom form lows just above $60, with a nice rally taking us back to just below $70. The Kovach OBV is still a bit lackluster, so we will see if Litecoin has enough momentum to sustain this rally. It seems that crypto is really tied in tandem with the stock market, so keep your eye on the S&P for clues as to the price action of crypto. We should see support at $64.37, with a target at $73.62.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
4
Ethereum Tends Toward $2K!!Ethereum has rallied with the rest of the crypto market, who got a lift off the back of stocks. It was looking pretty abysmal there for a while, testing the relative low of the selloff on the 12th, before gaining steam to recover the $1900's again. The Kovach OBV has gradually trended up, but we remain skeptical until ETH can recover the $2K handle solidly. Currently, we are in the mid $1900's and momentum seems to have let up for a bit. If we are able to recover it, then $2143 and $2232 are the next targets with $2324 a likely hard upper bound.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Breaks Out!!Bitcoin caught a nice rally as crypto saw an influx of buying momentum from the stock market rally. We were finally able to break through $31K, which was a hard upper bound for a two weeks. We were able to hit our next target at $32.3K, with a wick barely touching it before retracing to the mid $31K's. So far, the targets in these reports were spot on. Recall that we predicted the first target to be $$32K, with a ceiling at $34K. The Kovach OBV has edged up, but we are still skeptical of this rally until we can solidly break $34K. We should have good support at $30K, in the event of a retracement.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Oil Rallies Off Russian Oil BanOil has rallied significantly off news that the EU is planning to ban Russian imports of oil , despite the fact that Russia supplies 27% of the EU's oil and 40% of its gas. Crude oil prices soared off this news and we were able to smash through a relative high at $116. This was our target from earlier. Recall that last week, we noted oil's relative strength and set a target at $116. It is difficult to find justification for a signficant retracement, but a technical pull back should find support at $116 or $113. Our next target is $122, which would be signficant as this is a relative high.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Stocks Surge as China ReopensThe S&P 500 has broken out of the malaise it has held all of last week. China seems to be reopening which has investors breathing a sigh of relief. After the inverse head and shoulders breakdown, we saw tremendous resistance and stocks were in the doldrums, hovering in the 3800-3900 range with 4K a hard upper bound. The neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern provided strong resistance as we had predicted all of last week. Finally, we were able to break out from this level, smashing through our previous targets at 4122 and 4144, and reaching a new relative high just above 4200. We are starting to face resistance from a congestion zone from the end of April, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI just below 4214. We are finding support at 4144, and should see continued support from 4122, but if not, we are set to cross the vacuum zone to 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern. The next target is 4306, a relative high from the very beginning of May.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Slumps 😟Litecoin has extended its decline exactly as we had predicted. Recall that we noted several factors that pointed to a continued selloff. The price action was 'rounding off' as we have illustrated on the chart. Highs were getting lower and the Kovach OBV has turned south. Lower levels were providing little support and we have just now cracked the lower bound at $64.37. We are currently meandering in the vacuum zone between this level and $55.84. This should provide strong support if we break down further. The levels $64.37 and $66.94 are targets to the upside if momentum comes through.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Smashes Lower Levels 😱📉Ethereum has fallen through the vacuum zone in a dramatic selloff back to lows at the base of the $1700's. The selloff on the 12th took us to $1694, and we are finding support just one level above that at $1717. We are starting to see mounting support confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI, but the lack of a buyback or pivot is concerning. The Kovach OBV is bearish and keeps pressing lower. If we break down again, then we have one more level after $1694, then there is a vacuum zone to $1547. If we are able to pivot from current levels, we should have resistance in the $1800's, with $1906 a likely ceiling as it is the low of the range ETH has held for two weeks.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Weakness 📉Bitcoin has slumped, but is still maintaining the range it has held for the past two weeks. The $30K's have remained a barrier for BTC, and we have tested lower levels at $28.8K and $27.9K several times. Yesterday, things started to look pretty gloomy, but $27.9K was able to provide support and we have since equilibrated. But highs are lower, and the Kovach OBV is tapering downwards, suggesting that if we do not see more momentum come through, we could break down again. If so, expect support at $25K, the low of the previous selloff. If that does not hold, we are clear to test the lower $20K handle. At this point, $30K is a significant barrier, but if we can break through, $31K is the next target with $34K an absolute ceiling.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
US Dollar Strength UnwindsThe DXY has fallen to support at lower levels, as the dollar strength has continued to unwind. We fell from the 104's to support at 102.86, then to 101.70, and finally the level below that at 101.39. We are seeing some green triangles on the KRI to suggest support at these levels. However, if they don't hold, 100.98, then 100.46 are the next targets below. If we are able to resume the rally, we will face immediate resistance at 101.70, then there is a vacuum zone back to 102.86.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
2
Oil Returns to Relative HighsOil has continued its rally, breaking through our level at $111 with ease. It is currently facing resistance in the middle of the vacuum zone between $111 and $116. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply with the rally, but has since leveled off. We have few fundamental reasons why we should see lower oil prices, however if we do retrace, we should have support at $111, $108, then $106 in the event of a retracement. Otherwise, $116 remains our target, then $122.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Stocks Meet Resistance EXACTLY at Our Level!!The S&P 500 has broken out from the upper 3000's and made a run for higher levels. We faced pretty steep resistance from 3978, about the midpoint of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern. We noted that failed inverse H&S patterns are usually a bearish sign, and we have been in the doldrums all week. We also noted several times that the neckline of the failed pattern would provide significant and prohibitive resistance. This is exactly what we are seeing. Though the S&P 500 has broken out, it is currently facing resistance exactly at the neckline at 4068, confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has trended up, but tapered and flattened with the resistance. We will need more momentum to break through. If so, the next targets are 4122 and 4144. If we retrace, then 3978 should provide support again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy