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Quantguy

Oil Still StrongOil has hit our profit target of $116 to the tick, then retraced past our newly identified support level of $113. Currently, it is meandering in the wide vacuum zone between this upper bound and $106. We should see support from $106, but if not, there is no reason to believe that oil will give up the $100's any time soon. The level $116 seems to be providing steep resistance and this is the level we must break before considering higher levels. The Kovach OBV is lackluster despite the recent action, so it could go either way, but there is no fundamental reason to anticipate lower oil prices any time soon.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Stock Breakout Near??Stocks have recovered from a retracement after testing 4521. The price action started to 'round off' and we suspected a technical retracement may be in store earlier this week. Our prediction came true and we found support at 4440 also as anticipated. Currently, we are testing relative highs again at 4521, but are encountering steep resistance from red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has been inching up but has leveled off slightly as stocks struggle to break out further. We are at some serious resistance, so watch for signs of momentum at open. If not, we will likely reject current levels and head to support at 4440. If we do see a breakout, then 4580 is our next major target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Gold Facing Resistance as it Tries to Break OutGold has encroached upon upper levels from its range between 1895 and 1956. We are currently facing resistance from a cluster of levels in the 1950's and 1960's. This dense patch of levels will continue until the 1970's or so. The Kovach OBV has picked up, and if we can break through all these levels we should be clear to test the 1980's, with 1982 in particular a likely target. If we break down, the former lower bound of our range at 1895 should provide support.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
Bonds Bear Rout Bottoming Out??Bonds have stabilized for now after a brief relief rally. We tested higher levels at 123'15 or so, after falling 7 handles from the 129's to the 122's in less than one month. The rally was short lived, and just a technical respite into the overall bear trend, exactly as we had predicted here. The price promptly rejected this level, as anticipated, and headed back down to lows. We found support just above the low at 122'10 and have been equilibrating thereabouts, between this level and 123'01. There is nothing to suggest any deviation from the bear rout, overall except perhaps for small relief rallies. If the bear momentum picks up again our next target is 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Ethereum Testing $3K Again!!Ethereum has gotten a lift from the crypto market and reestablished the $3K handle. We have found strong support from $2965, which held as we tested the vacuum zone below to $2852. We do appear to be meeting steep resistance from $3042, with several red triangles on the KRI at this level. However, volatility is consolidating so we could be preparing for another breakout. If so, $3148 is our next target. If we reject $3042, then we should see support from $2965 or $2852.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Tests $43K AgainBitcoin got support from the $41K's as we anticipated yesterday. We the lift seems to be coming off news that Terra has bought $125M worth of Bitcoin for its reserve. If we want to continue to see higher prices in crypto we will need more news like this. We are currently testing $43.1K again, but a red triangle on the KRI is providing resistance. We have tested this level again earlier this week, and are likely forming some kind of consolidation pattern here like a bull wedge or flag, as we gear up for a potential breakout. Our next target is $45K, which is the ultimate barrier that must be broken before we can consider higher levels. If we retrace again, watch for support in the $41K's or $40K's.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Bear Wedge Forming in the DXY??The DXY has edged up, however, we continuously are making lower highs. We are seeing multiple red triangles on the KRI at or near highs, suggesting that resistance is building. However, lows are consistent at 97.73-97.89, suggesting in the long term we may be forming a bear wedge pattern. If that is the case, we can expect the DXY to test these lows again. We are currently testing 98.82, which is a significant level. If we are wrong and we break out from here, consider 99.40 as our next target, which was March's high. This is the barrier that must be broken before we can consider new relative highs, with 99.82 the next target after that.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
Stocks Retrace as Oil JumpsStocks have retraced as we have called out yesterday. We were due for a technical retracement, and the fact that oil prices jumped provided a catalyst for this retracement. We have found nice support at 4440, a former price target, and expect this level to hold but if not, then we could test the 4300's, with a likely floor of 4350. Our next target remains 4580. The Kovach OBV has dipped slightly, but it still appears we are in a bull trend, so anticipate either some ranging today as we digest current prices, or another bull rally.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Showing Considerable StrengthLitecoin has broken out yet again, showing considerable strength with regard to the performance of the 'majors'. We have broken past $120, where we anticipated resistance. We then made a run for $124, and after hitting this target, retraced back to $120. The Kovach OBV is still strong however, suggesting this is a technical retracement. If so, $130 will be the next target if we can break $124. If we retrace past $120, expect support from $114.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Ethereum Facing Resistance at $3KEthereum reached our target of $3K, only to face immediate resistance and give up the $3K's. We are seeing strong resistance at $3042 from two red triangles on the KRI, but are seeking support at the next level down at $2965. The Kovach OBV is still strong however, which could suggest this is just a retracement into the overall bull trend. If we retrace further, then $2852 is the next level of support, then $2762. We must break $3042, which seems to be a Herculean task at the moment, before considering upper levels. If so, our next target is $3148.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Retraces, will the Rally Continue??Bitcoin has hit our price target of $43.1K, but fell short of our expectations to contiune the rally. Although stocks are strong, their strength does not seem to be met by the newly established intermarket correlation with Bitcoin. Two red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance at $43.1K. There is strong support around $41K and we anticipate it to hold, but if not there is no reason we should expect to see any lower prices than $40K. The Kovach OBV has slumped, suggesting momentum has let up a bit. We are still hopeful of a bull rally to our next target of $45K, but are skeptical with the lack of momentum.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Every Day a New Low for Bonds!!Bonds keep falling as yields are rising globally. It seems that we have to redo our levels to predict yet another new low in ZN. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish and we have fallen 7 handles, from the 129's to 122's in the month of March. We are currently testing support at 122'10, but the bear rout shows no sign of stopping. It would be unwise to try to catch a knife here, although the probability of a relief rally increases with each rung down. Our next taget is 121'28. A relief rally could test 123'01 or 123'15.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Hits $120!!🚀🎉Litecoin has gotten a lift from the crypto rally, testing $120 at the time of this writing. This is a significant step for LTC which has been in the doldrums for some time. We were seeing prohibitive resistance from $114 for what felt like an eternity (in crypto time), but were finally able to break through on the 19th. Prices stabilized around $114, and it was a toss up as to whether we could sustain these levels. However another burst of momentum came through and we were able to hit $120 with ease. From here, Litecoin will have to maintain current levels before we can consider higher levels with $124 being the next target. If we retrace from here, then $114 should hold, otherwise $109 is tne next level of support below.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
5
Ethereum Hits $3K!! 🤑📈Ethereum has finally reached our target of $3K. We blasted through $2965, after crossing multiple levels in the upper $2K's which had provided prohibitive resistance in the past. The Kovach OBV is strong, as is the Chande, which suggests that a retracement may be near. We will see how ETH deals with $3042. This is a major level and reltive high from which we fell at the very beginning of March. If we do break out, $3148 is the next target, otherwise $2852 should hold.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Bull Bias in the DXY??The US dollar has climbed higher but is encountering resistance at 98.82, confirmed by multiple red triangles on the KRI. This suggests a retracement is highly likely especially because we are near a strong technical level at 98.82. We appear to be seeing this retracement right now, with a retracement. We should see support at 98.22 if we continue further. Overall, we seem to be holding the range between 97.73 and 99.40. If we seek highs again, we could test highs again at 99.40, which could indicate a bull wedge is forming and if so, 99.82 is our next target. If we retrace again, then support should hold at 97.73.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Breakout Near in Stocks?? 👀🚀📈Stocks are forming a bull wedge pattern and appear to be gearing up for a break out. We did see some volatility at relative highs around our level at 4487, which could indicate a top. We are also seeing several red triangles on the KRI to suggest resistance here. However, the Kovach OBV is still strong despite leveling off a bit. Watch for momentum at open to confirm a breakout. If so, 4521 is the next target. If not, 4408 should provide support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Tops $114, What's Next??Litecoin has ripped showing impressive momentum with respect to the majors. We have broken through $109 solidly and then teckled $114 with ease. We made it as high as $118 or so, just below our next technical level of $120, before retracing. Currently we are equilibrating around $114. We could be forming a dragon head pattern, and if momentum persists, we could be gearing up for another break out. If so, the next target is $120. If not, then be careful of the vacuum zone below to $109.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
$3K Still a Barrier for ETH 🤚🛑🚧Ethereum has retraced from highs at $2965. We saw an enormous buying wave which topped out before the hard limit of $3K. The retracement could just be a technical Elliott wave corrective phase, and if so, we expect support from the lower bound of $2852. We appear to be seeing support here from several green triangles on the KRI. If support holds, anticipate ETH to range between this level and $2965, with $3K a hard upper bound for now. If it breaks, then $2762 is our next level of support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
2
US Dollar to Test Highs??The DXY has formed a double top at 99.40. We seem to be getting great support from 97.73, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI every time we test this level. We seem to be in a longer term sideways corrective phase with a lower bound at 97.73. We seem to be in the middle of the range right now, so it is important to see what we do from here. If the DXY is able to get a lift again it will likely test highs at 99.40. The price action is looking a bit weak, so we may test 97.73 again. If so, that would suggest we are forming a bear wedge pattern and perhaps portend lower prices perhaps at 97.32.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
Stocks Back to Life??Stocks have received a nice buying wave, blasting through 4440. It appears we are back to bull mode, as this was the level to break before we could consider higher levels. We do appear to be facing some resistance at 4462, an intermediary level before 4487, which is the next relative high and key level to break before we can consider 4580 which is a major target, and high of Frebruary. This level was tested and rejected twice, forming a double top that will be difficult to break out of. If we reject current levels, anticipate support at 4408.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy