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Quantguy

Stocks Reach Our Target!!Stocks had another day of gains, breaking out to test 4408, the exact level we identified here in these reports. We are seeing two red triangles at this level on the KRI suggesting it is providing resistance for now. The price action does appear to be rounding off, suggesting that we may be in for a retracement or some ranging. Candidate levels for a dip include 4380 and 4327. The Kovach OBV is still pretty bullish but does appear to be rounding off as well.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Oil Regains $100Oil has gotten a lift from the mid $90's back to the $100's. We were able to break through $101, and are currently ranging in the vacuum zone between $101 and $106. The Kovach OBV has picked up slightly as oil has gained momentum. It is likely that most of the geopolitical factors are priced in, so we might not see an aggressive rally back to highs, but a gradual progression is likely. We should see support from the base of the $100 handle, but if not, then we could retrace all the way back to $95. Our next target is $106, then there is a vast vacuum zone to $116.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
DXY Retraces, PivotsThe DXY has retraced significantly from highs. The level 99.40 has proven to be an absolute high for now, and the dollar has rejected these upper levels as we have predicted in these reports. We have retraced lower through multiple support levels including 98.82, 98.24, and 97.89. Finally, it appears we are seeing some support just above the next level down confirmed by a green tirangle on the KRI just above 97.62 at 97.73, which we have added as a new technical level. From here, 97.73 should continue to provide support but if not watch 97.63, 97.47 and 97.32.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Holding $40KBitcoin has topped out at $41.6, the exact target we have predicted here. It got a lift from the range it had held at $38K or so, but momentum quickly faded and we have established a range again between $40K and $41.6K. The price action is steadily drifting downwards, as the Kovach OBV levels off. Watch for support at $40K but if not, we could reestablish the range between $38K and $40K once again. We have two significant levels in the $41K's to break through but if we can do that the next target is $43.1K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
2
Ethereum Presses Higher!! 📈Ethereum got a nice lift from the mid $2K's to $2800 or so. Although level $2852 was prohibitive for ETH, we still were able to break past $2762 which is a significant level, and recent high which was rejected earlier this month. We have found support at $2762, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. It appears we are at least establishing a new range between $2762 and $2852. If the lower bound does not hold watch the vacuum zone to $2651. Otherwise, the next target is $2965.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
3
Litecoin Pressees HIgherLitecoin has blasted off with the Fed decision yesterday. Cryptocurrencies and other "Risk On" assets have benefitted from the certainty of the decsion. The hike has been pried into the markets for months. Litecoin found support at $101, and tested $105, breaking it solidly, before breaking $109, which we have added as a technical level. We broke above that yesterday, but could not quite make it to $114, the next target. Currently we are testing $109 again, this time from above. We should find support there but if not, $105 or $101 should hold. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, which implies we will range or retrace.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Ethereum Rallies Over 10%!!Ethereum has pivoted from $2500 or so and rocketed up to higher levels in the $2700's. The FOMC decision did great for "risk on" assets as we were predicting in these reports. The Kovach OBV has ripped higher, but is starting to level off as ETH finds resistance at $2762. This remains a barrier confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. From here we could range further, which is likely as ETH feels out this price range. If we retrace, the $2500's should provide a cushion. The next target is $2852, though it is doubtful we will test that.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
2
Oil Tests $100 AgainOil has continued its decline but the bleeding seems to have stopped for now as we have found support in the mid 95's. We have found support at $95.24 as confirmed by multiple green triangles on the KRI. Subsequently we have lifted to $100 which seems to be providing resistance at this point. The Kovach OBV is still bearish but does seem to be leveling off. If we are able to recover then $106 is our next target, otherwise we should find support again at $95.24. Watch out for the vacuum zone to $92.03.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Stocks Blast Off After FOMC!!Stocks have rallied after the first rate hike in three years by the Federal Reserve. Novice traders might surmise that stocks would collapse off this news, however dedicated readers here should have been prepared. We called this rally days ago. Why? The rate hikes have been priced in months ago and we are seeing a 'relief rally' which follows with more clarity on monetary policy.We pivoted from 4144 and shot up through multiple levels to break highs at 4327. When the decision came we saw a brief pullback then a subsequent rip to even higher leves (A friend bought at 4261 and crushed it, cheers MJ!!). From here we can expect either ranging or higher prices, but will likely see resistance at 4421. We must break this level to see anything higher. Currently, we are seeing a brief pullback to 4327, where we should find support. If we retrace further 4293 should provide further support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Bitcoin Lifts Ahead of FOMC. What to Expect??Bitcoin got a lift last night with the stock market, as investors prepare for the 25 basis point (one quarter of a percentage) hike in interest rates . As the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks (and other risk on assets) increases, investors appeared to gain a surge of confidence with the certainty of the rate hike to fight inflation . We tested as high as $41.6K, which was our target from yesterday, then sold off immediately. After the volatility, we have seen a steady lift in BTC, back to $40K or so at the time of this writing. We will see if stocks continue to rally after the FOMC meeting, and if so this should bleed into Bitcoin as well. The levels $41.6K, $41.9K and $43.1K remain targets if see a lift. If not, then we will likely retreat to support at $38.2K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Relief Rally in Stocks ahead of FOMCStocks got a major lift ahead of the FOMC rate decision today. As we are all well aware, the Fed is expected to lift rates by 25 basis points (one quarter of a percent) to begin their 'firefight with inflation' . The rate hikes were heavily priced into the markets, and when the decision is made, we can expect a relief rally as the uncertainty is lifted. Inflation is weighing on global stocks, so the action could help ease investor fears. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply with the buying, taking us all the way back up the entire range to 4327. If you recall this was our exact level from yesterday's report. It is likely that the majority of the rally has taken place, but we could test as high as 4421, a relative high. If we face resistance, however, we could retrace the entire rally back to support at 4144.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Treasuries Get Smashed as Investors Brace for HikesBonds continue their selloff ahead of the FOMC meeting today . The Fed is expected to raise rates, and we could be in for as many as 6 rate hikes total this year. This is impacting yields sending bond prices tumbling. ZN has made a brief attempt at higher levels but got batted down around 125'07, a level we identified yesterday. It is likely to continue the bear trend, currently finding support at 124'19 by a thread. The next target below is 124'06.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Maintains $100Litecoin has dropped from $105, which we predicted yesterday. We noted that $105 was providing prohibitive resistance and there was no reason to expect any momentum in crypto unless some major news broke. The level $101 has provided support, confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI. We expect support to hold and for ranging to continue. However, watch the vacuum zone to $94, below. If we are able to break $105, there is a vacuum zone above as well to the next target at $114.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
1
Ethereum in a Narrow RangeEthereum has leveled off in a very narrow range between $2509 and $2595. This is a very narrow range for ETH as ambivalence in the crypto markets hits all the majors. We have very low activity on the network as well, with gas prices last night falling as low as $2 for some operations. If this disinterest continues, we could test lower levels. The first target below is $2454, then $2402, which should be considered a floor for now. From above, we must break $2595 then $2651 is the next target.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
Bitcoin Holds the Range... For NowBitcoin is ranging safely in the $38K's. We made a brief attempt at $40K again which was quickly batted down. Resistance at this level is confirmed yet again by a red triangle on the KRI. We appear to have strong support from $37.7K, with this level holding strong after an attempt to test lower levels. If these levels do not hold, watch the vacuum zone to $36.7K. From above, $40K seems to be a prohibitive barrier, but if we can break through the next target is $40.8K then $41.6K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Two Reasons to be Wary of Stocks 📉Stocks are hanging by a thread as investors weigh a new Covid outbreak in China , and Geopolitical Tensions . The stock market in China has crashed with 2008 level severity as investors panic over the potential of new Covid lockdowns and sanctions as a consequence of support for Russia. US stocks have been hit as well, with the S&P testing relative lows at 4144. We do appear to be getting good support at this level confirmed by green triangles on the KRI, but we are not seeing much follow through. The level below, 4122 is a significant low, and the barrier between current levels and the lower 4K handle. If we are able to break 4122, then we will likely test the lows of the 4K's. If we see momentum, then 4214 is the next target, about mid way between the range between 4144 and 4327.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Bond Yields at Highest Levels Since 2019Bonds have edged out new lows as investors weigh deescalation of the war in Ukraine and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike . Yields in ZN, the 10 year treasury note, are the highest they've been since July 2019. We have sliced through multiple technical levels below, and have established new lows, yet again. We do appear to be seeing a brief pivot from lows at 124'19, but 125'07 is providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we are able to continue the rally and break through resistance, then 125'17 and 126'00 are the next targets above. If we continue to sell off, then 124'06 is the next target below.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Holds on to the Low $100'sLitecoin has been bouncing around the low $100's between $101 and $105. We have seen strong support at $101 by a green triangle on the KRI, and but a red triangle is confirming resistance at $105. It has held this range for the past week or so. The Kovach OBV is pretty flat, though it did dip slightly with the selloff. It is difficult to anticipate where it will go from here, but continuing to hold the range is highly likely. It is highly likely we will reject $105 and seek support at $101 again, but if not, there is a vacuum zone above to $114.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Ethereum Clings to the Mid $2K'sEthereum has leveled off consistantly around $2595, which we have added as a new technical level. It held almost completely flat over the weekend, but tested a relative low at $2509, which we have also added as new technical level. We seem to be filling out the range between $2454 and $2651. From here, it appears we are seeing resistance at $2595, but if we are able to break out then $2651 is sure to provide resistance. From below, $2509 appears to be a low, but $2454 should be considered a floor for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
2
Bitcoin Still in the Doldrums 🥱Bitcoin has been in the doldrums all weekend. It has flatlined around $39.2K, which we have added as a new technical level. We are seeing resistance at this level currently, as confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. It has really shown a preference for the range we have called out many times in these reports: $38K to $40K. The only good news is that Elon Musk, crypto's self proclaimed cheerleader, has announced that he will not sell his crypto holdings . Bitcoin appeared to rally off this, after testing lows at $37.7K, which should be regarded as a floor for now. The Kovach OBV is pretty bearish, but if we do somehow gain steam, then we must break $40K before seeing higher levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy