Quantstrategic
STI 3108 THEN WHAT?The STI continues its climb to test 3108.
Pivot 2920
Long positions above 2920 to test 3108 and 3270
Short positions below 2920 for 2871 and 2813
Looking at the monthly chart of the STI since 2007, the STI has been in a broad range between 2580 and 3898. A break of 3108 will test the 2 year downtrend cap on price since 2018. A break and hold above 3270 most optimistically tests the 2018 highs at 3646 (20 percent upside). A failure to break 3108 will likely test the 2020 lows at 2199 (30 percent downside risk).
An investor needs to consider the risk reward ratios when money is put at work. A range market poses considerable risk as there is no observable trend since 2007 to follow especially for those who look to build portfolios for the long term. Range markets favors the technical/swing traders and puts long term holders of stocks at risk.
SPX 4000?
The long signal at 3471 on 051120 is still valid with on the daily charts with a pivot at 3653.
On the 4hr charts, volatility is picking up with wide corrective moves and violent rallies.
This is often symptomatic when equities grind to new highs with portfolio repositioning and sector rotation occurring (US banks are rallying as an example)
Pivot 3653
As long as 3653 is supported, the SPX will continue to grind higher.
A break of 3653 will test 3481 and 3380
The Technical Analysis of the SPX is widely used a gauge for traders and portfolio managers to seek opportunities in whatever geographical markets and financial instruments they managed.
With multiple time frame bullishness and the technical picture of the SPX as of 080121, look for long term up trending equities that are making a technical breakout from a shorter term 4hr/daily set up from their corrective base. With the SPX rally since the October of 2010 post Lehman with a gain of 300% till date, a look outside of the US markets may have a greater risk to reward ratio.
STI BREAKS RANGE, TARGETS 3108After 5 weeks of hibernation, the STI breaks range and targets 3108.
Property and bank components are leading the charge.
3108 is the LT supertrend line that has capped the STI on a downtrend since 1st Oct 2018.
The SSSA line on the monthly charts sits at 3270.
Only a break and hold above 3270 on a monthly basis will return the STI to an uptrend.
Pivot 2892
Long positions above 2892 targets 3108 3270
A break of 2892 will test 2856 and 2792
SPX bullish Dec Opening. Pivot at 3655The SPX is bullish on ALL time frames and appears to have broken the Monthly Supertrend Line at 3655 into December 2020. Price must close above 3655 on the 1st of Jan 2021 to confirm the next long term Up Leg of the SPX over the next few months.
Pivot is at 3651
A break of 3651 will test 3557 and 3466 to the downside.
Price holding above 3651/4hr Supertrend line in the coming week will see new All time Highs.
STI support at 2767A short signal issued on 301120 on the 4hr signals a pullback to test 2767 ST line on the dailies. This is considered a pullback as price is still above the cloud on the 4hr.
Pivot : 2873
A Break above 2873 will test 2920 then 3108
A bounce below 2873 will test 2767 then 2671
The STI is bullish short term and medium term.
A long signal on the weekly charts was issued on the 071120 at 2693 targeting 3108.
The STI is still in a Long Term downtrend that started on 011018
SPX short term weakness. Target 3455.A short signal has been issued on 191120 at 3559. The target is on the Kijun line of the Daily charts at 3455.
A break below 3455 will test 3399.
A break above 3576 will test 3674.
The SPX is bullish on LT/MT and facing short term correction in the very short term.
Watch for price action within the 4hr cloud to be ranging and volatile. A clear break below the SSSB line must take place for 3455/3399 to materialize.
SPX bullish all time frames. Support at 3509.The SPX continues to hold its bullish tone on all time frames and is attempting to retry its intraday high of 3674.
Pay attention to the monthly supertrend line on the monthly chart currently at 3645. As we enter into the traditional year end Santa Claus rally, the bulls must break the supertrend line to the upside coming dec to maintain the rally into 2021. Failure to break and hold the supertrend line puts the uptrend in the ST at risk.
Short term support at 3509 must hold.
A break of 3509 will see a ST downtrend to test 3446 and 3325.
STI RALLIES WITH WALL STREET. SUPPORT AT 2506. A Biden win gave the STI a strong boost and broke the ST downtrend on 4hr charts on the 3rd of Nov 2020 at 2517. The STI hit and intraday high of 2519.
Levels to support uptrend on the day and 4hr charts will be at 2506.
Uptrend targets are now at 2626 and then 2697 initially.
A break of 2506 will see the test of 2200.
SPX REBOUNDS TO TEST 3647A Biden Presidency gave the SPX a bounce to test 3647 after it bounced of weekly support near 3176.
A long signal was issued on the 4hr charts at 3351 on the 3rd of Nov 2020.
A long signal was issued on the day charts at 3471 on the 5th of Nov 2020.
Target now stands at all time highs if we can break and close above 3647.
Support for the ST is at 3400.
A break of 3400 will negate this rally and resume a ST downtrend
SPX BREAKS 3333 TO TEST 3176A broad sell off across the globe started on the 281020.
This sell off spark the SPX to break its Supertrend line at 3333 opening the door to its weekly Kijun support at 3176.
The short signal was issued 2 weeks back on the 4hr chart at 3482 on 151020.
On a birds eye view, the MT and LT outlook of the SPX is still uptrend.
This move towards 3176 is ST in nature and corrective. 10% corrections are normal in the course of market lifespans.
A break above 3389 will resume ST uptrend.
STI BEARISH ON ALL TIME FRAMES. WATCH 2448.The STI short signal on the 4hr charts issued on 271020 gave traders 2 days to prepare their shorts and trim positions.
The STI short signal on 281020 the day charts was the last line in the sand to trim positions.
STI gapped down on 291020 to test 2448. A break and hold below 2448 will test 2200.
Only a break and hold above 2509 will resume ST selling pressures.
The STI has been on a MT/LT DOWNTREND SINCE THE SHORT SIGNAL WAS ISSUED ON THE WEEK CHARTS ON THE 5TH OF OCT 2019 LAST YEAR.
SPX WEAKNESS BELOW 3491The short signal issued on 151020 has prevailed throughout the week.
Price action in the cloud is often characterized by high volatility till a breakout from either side occurs.
A break below the 4hr cloud will test 3333.
A break above 3491 will resume the uptrend and test 3550 and 3585 (ATH)
STI TESTS 2516 TWICEThe STI made an intraday high of 2569 on the 13 oct and has since faced selling pressure throughout the week to test 2516.
A break of 2516 will quickly move to 2509 and a close below 2509 will resume downtrend in all timeframes.
A hold above 2516 will test 2569 and may start an uptrend on the daily charts.