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All Eyes on FOMC for Equities PositionsData from the U.S. has improved by the barest of margins. The New York Fed Consumer Survey finds inflation expectations rising (by less than 1%) above expectations, and the ECB rate cut means lots of free cash to play with. Keep in mind we have the FOMC meeting coming up and their decisions will determine the direction of the markets for the near term. Expectations for the federal funds rate remain pretty consistent and the consensus is no change. Personally, I expect them to pay more lip service to foreign issues and reiterate data dependency. But the tone of their message could have a huge impact on the direction of the markets, in particular with the S&P. Moreover recession fears are still high as discussed in the attached article. The chart on SPY forms a near perfect bearish crab pattern. Further, the Aroon indicator notes we are still in a long term down trend. The OBV does show some buying pressure, though the buying volume at present does not match selling volume from December. Further, the RSI is dangerously close to reflecting overbought conditions. Although the MACD histogram is still positive, it is decreasing indicating a potential crossover in the near future. Finally, there is a growing divergence between the price and the Ichimoku cloud portending a correction soon. Trading idea: Don't enter a short position until you see a strong bear candle. After this, you can place a protective stop at the high of that candle, and set a conservative price target at the first fibonacci level at $195.26, or at $192.20 or even $189.81 depending on your risk tolerance.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
Can Gilead Beat the Markets?As of March 3rd, Gilead earned a 'buy' rating from Citigroup as verified by the link. It is true that GILD should have performed better after earnings as has been historically demonstrated, but it took a beating with the overall index but failed to share in the rebound. Personally, I think this is a good thing, for you'll note from my previous post here previous post that this is nothing but a massive short covering rally, just like we are seeing with oil The good news is that we seem to see see a nice breakout to the upside from the consolidation in terms of a bull triangle. We are not out of the woods yet, as we face resistance from the ichimoku cloud overhead and a neighboring fibonacci level at about $90.30. In fact, the level mentioned above would make a great stop buy order to enter the trade, and clearly that strong level of support at $87.22 would serve as a good stop loss. The subsequent levels after $90.30 make perfect profit targets.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by quantguy
Massive Short Covering Rally in Oil: Trade AccordinglyThere's been a massive short covering rally of near historic proportions in oil recently. As the OPEC circus continues to 'cry wolf' regarding freezing production, the market, once overwhelmingly short on the commodity, takes the opportunity to cash out some of its short positions. There is really no fundamental reason for oil to rally so hard as the attached article cites. Further, note that the OBV does not indicate any true buying pressure that would warrant such a correction. In fact, it still demonstrates quite a bit of selling pressure, an extreme divergence with price. Further, note the bearish gartley pattern. It is not quite fully complete. But when the price hits anywhere from $40.30-$40.98 (as the pattern has been drawn to anticipate), we'll see almost perfect fulfillment of the ratios. Note further that this level happens to align with a strong fibonacci level on the fibonacci extension (if X-C is to correspond to the 50% fibonacci level). Finally, we see that the 100 period Aroon indicator still notes that we are in a long term downtrend, and the MACD looks due to change directions and head toward a crossover into negative territory. The RSI is very close to indicating overbought conditions as well, to indicate a near perfect setup for a mean reversion short in and of itself, let alone the data cited above. Look for it to retrace at least to 23.6% fibonacci level, if not to fully retrace and visit the $20 handle once again.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
S&P Rally Short LivedWith the tsunami of data this week, it was really hard to sieve out anything stellar. At best, we had employment data that was above expectation on Wednesday, as well as a moderately improved ISM manufacturing index. PMI and Factory Orders left much to be desired. Central Bankers all over the world are scratching their heads and trying in futility to save face against waning markets and negative interest rates that have taken Europe by storm and seem to be spreading at a clip rivaling the Zika virus. So why is S&P rallying? As Keynes himself said, "The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent". With the overtly bearish momentum this year to date, a proverbial 'dead cat bounce' was due. But that's all it is. One of the prime directives of trading is to trade with the volume not against it. This recent buying volume is still paltry with respect to the selling volume which drove the market down. Timing is everything in trading. When can we expect a turnaround? If we take a look at the chart of SPY and apply some fibonacci analysis, we see a bearish butterfly pattern foreshadowing another bearish turnaround. If you apply fibonacci time slice analysis, you see that we can probably expect this to begin as early as tomorrow or to even by market close today. The RSI seems to hint that the market is becoming overbought at this point, and we see a macd cross starting to form at 1 hour intervals. The OBV is still indicating positive pressure which indicates now is not necessarily the time to enter a short position. This is confirmed by the Aroon and ADX indicators as well. Wait for a big bear candle tomorrow or by Monday, 2016-03-07. At this point you can set a stop loss at the base of that candle and ride the trade down to the 0.5, 0.382, or 0.236 levels drawn out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
No End to Bearish News for the S&PYesterday, Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve spoke confirming expectations that the Fed would sit tight on interest rates. She even admitted today that the Fed is considering negative interest rates. Her ominous tone did not bode well for the markets as evinced by the abysmal market opening today here in the US. In fact, the world's markets are rearing from this glut. As for the technicals, we have a bearish Aroon crossover, with the ADX signifying a solid negative trend. Additionally the MACD has crossed over into negative territory, yet the RSI indicates we are not yet oversold. Also note the bearish head and shoulders pattern which suggests we have a way to go before the bulls return. Consider any rallies due to short covering at this point. Fade into any uptrends, for they will be short lived.
SShort
by quantguy
S&P Solidly BearishAny hopes for a recovery this week were quashed by today's open and marked declines henceforth. There really doesn't seem to be any indication of a turnaround, unless some good data comes out this week, and there is quite a bit to anticipate. As the attached article notes, analysts are cutting their expectations for the S&P, and it would be good advice to any investor heed this warning and do the same. The head and shoulders pattern drawn here indicates a bearish trend, and today's open confirms this. Its a bit oversold at present (although the RSI does not confirm this, yet), but any rally should be a good point at which to enter a short trade, or exit a failing long position, thus easing the sting a bit. As for the technicals, the MACD histogram is still in positive territory but its hanging by a thread and looking to cross soon. The OBV indicates a lot of selling pressure, and ADX indicator is distinctly bearish, and the difference between the up and down components are widening further, despite a recent apparently bullish Aroon crossover.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
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Dark times for the EuroFrom political instability to ineffectual QE, bullish news for the Euro is scant. We can look for more confirmation from Draghi to this effect soon to come. As far as the technicals are concerned, we have a very strong bearish head and shoulders pattern forming on the weekly chart. There is massive resistance from above via the ichimoku cloud which will make a turnaround difficult. The MACD is waning and the RSI indicates entry into a position is safe. Further, there seems to be some high selling pressure via the OBV indicator. The Aroon indicator notes that we've entered bearish territory (on a day chart), and the ADX indicator is waning with the MACD, suggesting a collapse may follow soon, perhaps even after Mr. Draghi's speech.
Short
by quantguy
Bearish Double Top on NetflixUnfortunately for NFLX on the fundamentals side, they were ousted from Indonesia, which was a prime target for their international expansion endeavors, due to a failure to fulfill their censorship standards. Unfortunately for them, this simply adds to the list of bearish technical indicators despite 'buy' ratings from numerous sources. First, note the bearish Aroon and ADX indicators indicate a solid down trajectory. Also note that the MACD has been bearish for some time now, since before the new year (2016) in fact. Note further the strong selling pressure via the OBV. The optimal time to enter a short position? Wait for a short covering rally sometime in the next week following the massive dive from today, similar to what we saw in oil earlier this week. It will look head for the Ichimoku cloud bound from above, but most likely turn sharply after a Heikin Ashi doji candle when the market ranges for a day or so.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by quantguy
Bearish Head and Shoulders and a Gloomy Outlook for AAPLWhen Apple was using the Power PC line of processors in their computers, I was extremely skeptical of them. Their operating systems prior to OS X were abysmal. They crashed all the time, and the availability of software for anything I wanted to do was scant. Then they started rolling out Intel processors, and updated OS, and a slew of performance upgrades and I was sold. But, as the attached article mentions, the hegemony of AAPL is slipping. From the dreadful abomination that is iTunes, to less intuitive interfaces, to slipping iPhone sales, they are slowly and surely losing ground in the markets. The most obvious support for this statement technically is the bearish head and shoulders pattern apparent here. Next, we see a clear rejection from the important technical and psychological level of $120, and an exodus from the Ichimoku cloud. The MACD is solidly in negative territory, and the Aroon indicator together with the ADX confirms a lot of bearish momentum. The RSI indicator shows AAPL is oversold slightly, and the selling pressure evinced by the OBV seems disparate to the bearish price action, so we may anticipate a small rally soon, but this should be interpreted as a good time to enter a short trade, at around the $104-105 level. The doji candle at present seems to confirm a turnaround, or at least a pause from the recent landslide.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by quantguy
The Bears are still in full force on CrudeThere seems to be no shortage of bearish news on Crude oil lately. In fact, today's 'dark cloud cover' candlestick pattern is a bearish rejection of the level formed by Friday's close proves the little rally we saw on 2015-01-22 was merely just a short covering frenzy. Almost all the technicals indicate we are in a solid downtrend. The Aroon indicator is still at almost maximum divergence, and the ADX indicates a very strong downtrend. Although the MACD seems to have crossed, the strength of today's rejection shows its not likely to last. The OBV indicates strong selling pressure, and the RSI confirms this might be a good time to enter a short position. Also note that it closed below the important psychological and technical level of $30, as it is consistently breaking lower lows. The only concern is the distance from the Ichimoku cloud. Typically, this amount of distance may indicate a rally is near as we saw on 2015-08-27.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Green Light on US Treasuries The China crisis has the world's markets in panic mode. Stocks had the worst first week in history. Currencies are tumultuous and volatile. Its difficult to endorse the Euro for anything more than short term swing trades at best due to their own problems. Commodity currencies are sure to tank, and stocks are too volatile lately in my opinion. One good idea for a long seems to be US treasury products, which historically have faired well in times of fear and panic. In particular, take a look at this bull ETF which tracks the US ten year treasury note. Observe the steadily rising lows and the roughly consistent level the highs have maintained at $78.00, a nice round number at that. Further, note the support from below via the ichimoku cloud indicating that a 'bounce' or retracement may be in order from the recent bearish momentum of the past week. The RSI confirms its a great time to get in, though admittedly, the MACD still suggests a bit of bearish momentum. I'd set a stop loss at either $73.75, or $72.50, both recent lows and psychologically sound, round numbers.
DLong
by quantguy
Remninmi Bottomed?With the China crash still fresh on everyone's minds its time to ask if the Renminbi has bottomed out or if there is still room to crash. Based on the link attached, there seems to be the potential for a lot more bad debt that China is trying to avoid confronting, and probably couldn't even account for if they tried. On the technical side, note the massive resistance from above via the Ichimoku cloud, successive massive drops and the inability to break previous highs. There seems to be a nice profit target at about 0.13730, which was tested and rejected on October 14th. As for a stop loss, there seems to be a level of support around 0.14032. The MACD and RSI do not indicate that this asset is oversold, despite the massive downturn as of late.
Short
by quantguy
China fears wreck commodity currenciesAs we all know by now, the Chinese markets were only open 14 minutes before a crushing 7% loss tripped safeguards. Recently, news came out to the effect that we can expect a further devaluation of their currency. This will hurt commodity currencies like AUD. In fact, its slipping as I'm writing this. My short position is bolstered by massive pressure from above via the Ichimoku Cloud, and the difference between the MACD and signal is rapidly closing suggesting a bearish turnaround. The RSI gives us a green light.
Short
by quantguy
Bearish outlook on the S&PA variety of technical indicators coupled with the Fed's recent rate rise may suggest a bearish outlook on the S&P 500. Note the gap up on 12/15 only to be followed by a gap down two days later, from which SPY was never able to recover. We also see tremendous pressure from above via the Ichimoku Cloud, but lots of room to fall from below. The MACD/RSI combo suggest a meager attempt at reversal, though the OBV suggests massive selling pressure. Look to today's high at $202.67 as a stop loss and the congestion area right around 200.80 for a profit target
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
The Rich Get Richer...While the Fed is boasting good data supporting rate hikes, they neglect to mention the fact that 51% of Americans make less than $30K a year, or that they work more hours than any country in the world. Something else they focus on are broad market indices for which the top 500 companies carry the slack of the smaller cap companies which are feeling the weight of the economy on their shoulders. The Vanguard small cap ETF tracks such small cap businesses and multiple factors besides fundamentals point to a good short position on a swing trade. For example, none of the highs can come anywhere close to December's levels. There's lots of resistance from above via the Ichimoku cloud, and MACD, RSI, and OBV indicators suggest lots of downward momentum and selling pressure. There's a relative vacuum below, but look for 12/17's high of $112.65 as a stop loss as this is the most recent high.
AMEX:VBShort
by quantguy
Candadian Dollar Still Can't Keep UpLargely a function of what crude oil is doing, the Canadian dollar simply cant keep up, even despite the rally in crude earlier today. Further, weak jobs data does not help. Although we have a nice 0.7403, the slope of the upper bounds steepens indicating the bears are awake. Also, there is a "dark cloud cover" candlestick pattern indicating a level was tested and rejected. Finally, with a finer time scale we see what looks to be a head and shoulders pattern forming. There is strong resistance from the Ichimoku cloud from above as well. The MACD/RSI indicate a strong downtrend.
Short
by quantguy
How to Profit from the IMF's Decision on the YuanFollowing the IMF's decision to add the Yuan to the SDR bucket. Fundamentally, this will imply a rush to stock up. Many central banks keep a reserve supply of other currencies, commodities, etc, with an emphasis on SDR's. This fact, coupled with the dollars eventual deceleration come an interest rate decision in December could imply that CNHUSD will be a good long trade. The technicals look weak, to be completely honest. There is some resistance from above via the Ichimoku cloud and the MACD suggests some negative momentum, though the MACD/RSI combination does suggest now is a good time to make a move, not necessarily a long position. This chart pattern does look conspicuously like an ABCD pattern waiting to happen. The ratio of the first leg is right in the sweet spot at just over 0.6, so assuming a completion of this pattern, we can expect the other leg between 1.2 and 1.6, so a conservative profit target has been set using a ratio of 1.2, which is right around 0.15829. Assuming a 50% Fibonacci retracement anchored at 8/25 and 10/30, we can set a stop loss at 0.15208.
Long
by quantguy
Markets Shake with Impending Rate HikeThe bullish run for the markets appears to be slowing especially as the impending interest rate hike gets becomes more of a reality. Some bearish signs are especially prevalent for QQQ, as we see a relative vacuum area from below and lots of room before we hit any resistance from the Ichimoku cloud. Moreover, the RSI, MACD and OBV all indicate an unfortunate turn of momentum for this asset. For profit targets, consider the first fibonacci level at around 111.59, or the high of 10/22 at 109.82. Be especially wary of 115.52 as it corresponds to a recent high and a fibonacci level concurrently.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by quantguy
BTCUSD Short Term Long TradeBTCUSD looks like it might rally here shortly. We see some strong resistance from below via the Ichimoku cloud. The OBV indicates strong buying pressure still. The MACD and RSI are right in the 'sweet spot'. Moreover, we have somewhat higher lows and a double bottom formation. The Fibonacci retracement indicates some nice profit targets, otherwise we can use the level at 384.90 or so. For a stop loss consider the congestion area around 379.37. As for fundamentals, BTCUSD seems to have come back into favor after retracing a bit from its epic rally last week as per the linked article.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
GBPUSD Shorting OpportunityLower highs on the day chart note that the GBP is struggling to maintain footing. Further, the strong resistance from above by the Ichimoku cloud casts doubt on any bullish rallies. The RSI and MACD indicators suggest that this is an optimal time to enter a position. The Fibonacci retracement gives us some profit targets and stop losses, as well as a level at 1.5373 that could serve as a trigger to execute the short order. On the fundamentals side, the attached forecasts a rally in the dollar. This was confirmed at about 3 am this morning when the dollar rallied against all majors around 3 am.
Short
by quantguy