$USGDPQQ -U.S GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ 2.8%
Q3/2024
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
-The US economy expanded an annualized 2.8% in Q3 2024,
below 3% in Q2 and forecasts of 3%, the advance estimate from the BEA showed.
Personal spending increased at the fastest pace since Q1 2023 (3.7% vs 2.8% in Q2),
boosted by a 6% surge in consumption of goods (6% vs 3%) and a robust spending on services (2.6% vs 2.7%), mostly prescription drugs, motor vehicles and parts, outpatient services and food services and accommodations.
Government consumption also rose more (5% vs 3.1%), led by defense spending.
In addition, the contribution from net trade was less negative (-0.56 pp vs -0.9 pp), with both exports (8.9% vs 1%) and imports (11.2% vs 7.6%) soaring, led by capital goods, excluding autos. On the other hand, private inventories dragged 0.17 pp from the growth, after adding 1.05 pp in Q2.
Also, fixed investment slowed (1.3% vs 2.3%), led by a decline in structures (-4% vs 0.2%) and residential investment (-5.1% vs -2.8%).
Investment in equipment however, soared (11.1% vs 9.8%).
Quarterly
$EUGDPQQ -Europe's GDP (Q3/2024) ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ 0.4%
Q3/2024
source: EUROSTAT
- The Eurozone GDP expanded 0.4% on quarter in the three months to September 2024,
the strongest growth rate in two years, following a 0.2% rise in Q2 and above forecasts of 0.2%
The German economy expanded 0.2%, surprisingly avoiding a recession, after a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in Q2.
GDP growth also quickened in France (0.4% vs 0.2% in Q2) and the Spanish economy remained robust (0.8% vs 0.8%).
In addition, the Portuguese economy grew 0.2%, the same as in Q2 while the GDP in Ireland (2% vs -1%) and Austria (0.3% vs 0%) rebounded and grew faster in Lithuania (1.1% vs 0.3%).
On the other hand, the Italian economy stalled, following a 0.2% rise in Q2 and Latvia remained in contraction (-0.4% vs -0.3%). Year-on-year, the Eurozone GDP expanded 0.9%, the best performance since the Q1 2023, compared to a 0.6% rise in the previous quarter and higher than forecasts of 0.8%.
The ECB expects the GDP in the Eurozone to expand 0.8% this year.
$CNGDPYY - China's GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q3/2024
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
-The Chinese economy expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 of 2024,
compared with market forecasts of 4.5% and a 4.7% rise in Q2.
It marked the slowest annual growth rate since Q1 2023, amid persistent property weakness, shaky domestic demand, deflation risks, and trade frictions with the West.
The latest figures came as Beijing had intensified stimulus measures to boost economic recovery and rebuild confidence.
In September alone, there were some positive signs:
industrial output and retail sales both saw their largest increases in four months, and the urban jobless rate fell to a three-month low of 5.1%.
On the trade front, however, exports rose the least in five months while imports were sluggish. In the first three quarters of the year, the economy grew by 4.8%, compared with China’s full-year target of around 5%.
During the period, fixed investment rose by 3.4% yoy, topping consensus of 3.3%.
Euro-Zone GDP Quarterly *3M (QoQ)ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ (+0.3 %)
Q1/2024
source: EUROSTAT
The Eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2022, to beat market expectations of a marginal 0.1% expansion and gain traction following muted readings since the fourth quarter of 2022.
The result added leeway for the European Central Bank to refrain from cutting rates to a larger extent this year should inflationary pressures prove to be more stubborn than previously expected.
Among the currency bloc’s largest economies, both the German and the French GDPs expanded by 0.2%, while that from Italy grew by 0.3% and that from Spain expanded by 0.7%, all above market estimates.
Compared to the same quarter of the previous year ECONOMICS:EUGDPYY ,
the Eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.4%, beating market expectations of 0.2%, and gaining traction after two straight quarters of 0.1% growth.
Russel 2000 - Consolidation into Q3
Hey Guys,
For this Index the Consolidation period has been there since the big Engulfing Candle on the Yearly Chart happened in 22.
To become bullish again Russel has to move beyond 2280 (-1625 is the lower end with a mid-point of 1940)…
Until then I will take a neutral bias towards this Index. Most likely we will consolidate on the 3D Chart between the two white lines - Demand and Supply Lines from the Quarterly Chart. Keep in mind that the Blue Box is the High of 23 and the Red Box Constitutes the Middle Line of 22.
I am looking to go long from the lower part and short from the upper part of the Consolidation - until a break occurs.
Normally I would enter on the 4h or 2h Chart but I will break it down to the 1H Chart because I like to take entries from there (Risk - Reward wise).
Thanks for reading
Nasdaq Buy to SellSimple charting of HOW we should READ the MARKET/PA/ETC!! Focus not just on the structure(PRICE), but also TIME. We need to approach the market as if we are DOCTORS having OPEN Surgery..Each blue b0x is 6 h0urs, study the FL0W EACH 6H0urs then APPLY the FRACTAL "doubling down theory" Im SELLING MNQ1! the whole week unless proven wrong then I'll catch a trade next week. The BUY is the illusion in my eyes. (Monday & Asia High)Weak SSL rest at the top. Tuesday is Manipulation day.
Nissan Motors Long ScenarioI think it will be bullish til 2026. A stock I might just buy til then.! Price is in the manipulation area(quad 2/green box), where it showed false sell run as price ran it within the next 3 years. If price make it to (quad 3/blue zone) bullish; thats the confirmation to upside. Will Come back to this after a while.
Some thoughtsThinking of how quarterly Daye theory affects or reflexts price action.
Interesting how fridays role is changing but also how we cycle through xAMD or AMDx
Notice how this week we had last Friday as ACC and then Monday we were manipulating as for Tuesday and Wednesday to be the distribution and continuation days.
it actually maps pretty well with the Thursday being the day before NFP for which i believe to be a seek and destroy day aka ACCUMULATION and for Friday (NFP day) to be the manipulation day. I will stay out of trading these 2 days.
DXY Outlook (1st Qtr 2024)Last year, despite the volatility in the markets (fight against inflation, SVB collapse, conflict in Gaza....) the DXY traded in a slightly consolidative range, between the 100 and 107 price levels (compared to 2022, where the DXY rose from 95 up to almost 115).
The theme of the first quarter of 2024 is likely to be about if/when the Federal Reserve would begin to cut rates, from the current level of 5.25% down to 5%.
Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the Feds are likely to keep rates on hold in January, but there is a 72.4% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 meeting.
The DXY is currently at the 101.50 price level, finding support at the 100-round number area and the longer-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 99.25 price level.
A retrace to the upside can be anticipated early in the quarter. However, the upper bound of the bearish channel and the resistance level at the 104 price level could limit further moves to the upside.
Look out for inflation and employment data to continue to support the Fed's view for rate cuts in March. This could lead the DXY to continue trading within the bearish channel.
If the price breaks below the support level of 99.25, the DXY could trade down to the major support level of 95, and the lower bound of the bearish channel.
Major Events to Watch
5th Jan: Non-Farm Employment Change
11th Jan: CPI y/y
26th Jan: Core PCE Price Index
1st Feb: Federal Funds Rate Decision and statement
2nd Feb: Non-Farm Employment Change
13th Feb: CPI y/y
29th Feb: Core PCE Price Index
8th Mar: Non-Farm Employment Change
12th Mar: CPI y/y
21st Mar: Federal Funds Rate Decision
$US30 Final week Idea. I'm still a bit bullish on US30 even with the selling pressure we had this week in the market.
1. We're sitting over a Quarter point that was used as a support on the 17th followed by a retest on the 24th.
2. Last week created a bullish structure that market is already respecting, this structure also lines up with my quarter point levels.
3. we previously retested a supply zone at $3700-37100.
SOL 1D Analysis SOLANA has an ATH of $267, ~1300% from current price. With this huge upside potential/ almost minimum for the next Bullrun Q3/Q4 '24 - '25 it's an important token to stay up to date with, Here is a breakdown of current price action on the 1D:
SOL has been stuck in this range since November '22 that was created by the collapse of FTX. SOLANA's connection to the exchange sent it spiralling -68% over just 4 days.
Like most cryptos, SOL started to rally with the yearly open as BTC began climbing and altcoins following suit. The Bullish OB created from this initial rally was recently tagged last month which is made up of the point of control & value area low of the volume profile making the local low.
Purple key support and resistance areas that sit around the range midpoint area is controlling the majority of this choppy price action. Quarterly segments can be used to trade between, often bouncing between 0.25 to midpoint $15-23.
If SOL flips 0.5 midpoint next step is to push up to bearish OB key area. If/when that gets flipped and consolidated above, no doubt the range high of $38 is the next stop as the volume is thin and the FVG needs filling. That move would complete the recovery of the FTX event.
In my opinion I'm not convinced the bottom has been and done, yes price is down >90% from ATH, we still have macro economic problems with recession looming and almost a year to wait for the next BTC halving, the catalyst for the next bull market. I believe there will be an opportunity to buy lower for long term holds back up to that ATH, However this does not necessarily mean to go Short from here, if anywhere it would be range high $38.
CHFJPY Short for 3MGood day traders,
The CHFJPY is approaching it's all time high at 158 but I have good reason to sell now and hold. We observed CHFJPY reject on our resistance cluster after breaking out of our rising wedge pattern which caused a fakeout/ Fake out/ False breakout. We have seen this pair do this in the past thus we are considering the market close today to be within the rising wedge. In the event thaat we close above the wedge pattern, we will wait for the currency pair to get within the 148 - 158 region beffore attempting to short.
For now, we observe this quarter's close and take advantage of the opportunities it brings.
What do you think of this? Please share your thoughts below.
Disclaimer
NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
Inside quarter for SPY and many others Current environment seems hard to trade in. If you zoom out every now and then, you'll find a lot of Inside Quarterly candles, like $SPY.
Not saying market is expected to go up or down, but it's seeking for a (clear) direction.
Check your internals/sector ETFs, currently lots of inside's on the quarter:
DIA IWM OIH SLX SMH XBI XHB XLB XLC XLE XLF XLI XLP XLU XLV XLY XME XOP XRT
Bitcoin Quarterly review BTC Jan-March:
Quarterly Low : $16500
Quarterly High: $29200
77.32% increase Ytd
65 days spent above the 1d 200ema
25 days spent below the 1d 200ema
Biggest daily drawdown -9.08% (March)
Biggest daily increase 12.35% (March)
JANUARY:
High $24000
Low $16500
+46%
FEBRUARY:
High $25300
Low $21400
+0.94%
MARCH:
High $29200
Low $19600
%21.93
Anant Raj Limited fundamental and technical analysis Anant Raj showed excellent quarterly results (As posted by company quarterly results till September 2022). Expectations of continued growth in the quarterly results can be observed ( to be released on 19th January 2023. for December 2022 results)
Revenue growth (QoQ) is +23.14% (Till September 2022 quarter and growth expected more in December 2022 Quarter results)
Earnings growth (QoQ) is +14.28 (Till September 2022 quarter and growth expected more in December 2022 Quarter results)
Net Profit Growth (QoQ) is +21.80 (Till September 2022 quarter and growth expected more in December 2022 Quarter results)
By technical analysis SMA day 200 is Below SMA day 150 and SMA day 50 is below price, which is a very excellent condition to buy the stock. December 2022 quarter results will be released on 19th January 2023 and expecting a great growth for the realising Quarter results.
Considering fundamentals and technical analysis (Trend following) this stock (Anant Raj) is sure to turn into a multi bagger stock (by holding long term).
The beginning of the BIG short !Another wave another short, a BIG short !
After the bearish confirmation with the break of the $3636 level on Sept. 27, the first bounce wave ended on Oct. 5, and the bearish acceleration on Oct. 13 with the lows supporting Fibo 50%, yet another wave of technical bounce is about to end. The opening short area starts at $3750 with a more important area between $3800 and $3815 (highlighted in deeper red).
More acceleration could occur soon due to a confluence of factors : inflation data, FED interest rates, quarterly and the 50/100 weekly moving averages crossing downward (Death Cross).
I will open SHORT positions in the entire area from $3750 up to $3815, with larger positions between $3800 and $3815
The long-term trend remains unchanged as from the first analysis on August 26, with a long-term target in the $2200 area.
Quarterly DXY & Fed Fund RateChart Shows quarterly DXY and Fed Fund rate, with macro shark harmonic. Terminal PRZ of T1 at 117, t2 125 region with t3 at 136-38. Would be nice to see consolidation at 115-116 back to 106-8 area as other nations begin intervention. As of this hour, GBP halted trading trading as it collapsed 3.25%
***harmonics are not a predictive tool, they are a phenomenon of interest we see in the markets but I personally have no data suggesting they backtest in any consistent or reliable way across asset classes.
Bullish Quarterly Outlook for the EURGBPEURGBP outlook for the rest of the quarter. Eliminating swing trades focusing on taking one side on the yearly trend style of analysis. Within trading I advocate for looking at trading from a much longer term view and playing day to day trades within the larger trends to capture maximum pips and lowering risk by locking in pips and not dollars.
EURUSD END OF BEARISH SERIESEURUSD outlook for the rest of the quarter. Eliminating swing trades focusing on taking one side on the yearly trend style of analysis. Within trading I advocate for looking at trading from a much longer term view and playing day to day trades within the larger trends to capture maximum pips and lowering risk by locking in pips and not dollars.
EURNZD Quarterly outlookEURNZD outlook for the rest of the quarter. Eliminating swing trades focusing on taking one side on the yearly trend style of analysis. Within trading I advocate for looking at trading from a much longer term view and playing day to day trades within the larger trends to capture maximum pips and lowering risk by locking in pips and not dollars.