Was This The Only Bounce Up?Things appear to look good for Cycle C so far, but the top within the next 2 days is crucial to confirm we are in fact in the early stages of Cycle C and Cycle B ended last year on December 28. Looks like Intermediate wave 1 ended last Friday, meaning Intermediate wave 2 could end soon too, if not already completed. The first study is the historical percentage retracements. The pink levels are historical quartiles based on the most specific relational dataset. The light blue levels are slightly broader and the yellow is the broadest dataset. The three red levels are the maximum historical retracements.
The next study is based on specific wave relationships for duration and movement levels. The duration models have strongest agreement on 40 hours (the length of Intermediate 1) and unlikely. Second strongest is a fraction thereof at 20 hours (also unlikely). Third strongest is at 13 hours which would occur on Tuesday, and 27 hours which would occur on Thursday. Fifth agreement is 6 hours which is in progress at this time of writing. The quick upward move, could make 6 hours quite possible, especially with the current retracement bouncing off the 68.49% historical third quartile. The movement levels have strongest agreement with the high at 4758-4759; secondary agreement at 4742-4745; third agreement is a tie at 4750-4751, 4756-4759, 4762-4763, and 4770-4771; fourth is 4788-4789.
Intermediate wave 1 was 40 trading hours long and only dropped around 2.31% off the high. The original Intermediate wave 1 in Primary wave 1 from Cycle wave A back in January 2022 gave up nearly 5% in 29 hours. Intermediate wave 2 has moved quite a bit already which could hint Intermediate wave 4 is more of a slow retracement when we get to that later this month. The quick move up so far is either all of Intermediate wave 2 or just the Minor wave A of Intermediate wave 2. Confirmation will not be available for at least another day, but the next ultimate direction should be done. I will most likely publish an Intermediate wave 3 analysis tomorrow. Intermediate wave 3 will likely see a sharp drop through next Friday depending when it begins. Current plan is market top today around 4765-4771 and about 7 more days of downward movement.
