R2F Weekly Analysis - 1st June 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss as you will miss how I analyse the market:
We are at a new month, the month of June. I am still monitoring how the DXY acts this month to validate the monthly SIBI I've been talking about to turn into an iFVG. However, on the lower timeframes it looks very much like lower prices are in the making, which would be bullish for XXXUSD pairs and vice versa for USDXXX pairs.
- R2F
R2f
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 12 - GBPAUD - (1st June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing GBPAUD, starting from the 12-Month chart.
- R2F
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 11 - SGDJPY - (1st June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing SGDJPY, starting from the 6-Month chart.
- R2F
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 10 - EURJPY - (31st May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing EURJPY, starting from the 6-Month chart.
- R2F
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 9 - NQ1- (31st May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing E-mini NASDAQ, starting from the Weekly chart.
- R2F
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 8 - EURUSD - (29th May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing EURUSD, starting from the Monthly chart.
- R2F
S&P - Short Trade IdeaHere is a short trade idea on the S&P, using the SPX500USD chart.
We are basically at all time highs right now. This short idea is based on buyside liquidity recently raided, and now looking to ride a retracement/reversal down to a Discount PD Array.
There was a good-looking Unicorn setup that formed. Price is already in an entry area, but I've indicated a higher POI should price come up one more time (if we are ready to retrace). The targets are either Weekly BISIs, with the terminus at the beginning of the lowest Weekly BISI.
Overall, a pretty straight-forward trade. Since this is the 4h, I will be looking for a lower timeframe manipulation at a Killzone during a likely day, or news event to confirm lower prices.
- R2F
R2F Weekly Analysis - 26th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss as you will miss how I analyse the market.
Currently, the sentiment is still the same as last week's analysis. I am mostly keen to see how this monthly closes on the DXY. If we can close above the nearest Monthly gap and create new Weekly gaps higher, I would be keen to hunt for a short on XXXUSD pairs and longs on USDXXX pairs. If we do expand higher before the month is over, via a news event or convincing manipulation, then I would also be interested in the same as sooner or later I am anticipating a bullish USD.
- R2F
Implementing SEASONAL TENDENCIESHi guys,
In this video I go through what are "seasonal tendencies", and how you can implement it into your analysis and strategy(ies).
Seasonal tendencies in the context of financial markets are basically what the particular market or asset has historically done throughout the years in terms of bullish or bearish movement. For example, in April-May the US Dollar is usually bearish, and from May-June it is usually bullish. This is useful information because it can add confluence to your bias/analysis. However, you do not want to solely use this information as a reason to get into a trade. The data is based on the past, and is not indicative to the present/future and also does not represent how much a market or asset can move because the data is only measured relative to what it has previously done. The best approach is to use this as an additional thumbs up if it coincides with your analysis, and if it does, then it allows you to be a bit more cautious or risk averse.
A simple analogy is the weather. If you were planning a holiday to Thailand for a sunny getaway, the best times would be from March to July. Most likely you are not going to book a holiday in November during the monsoon season, unless you actually wanted it to rain every day. However, some years have had very little to no rain during the monsoon season. That being said, you would most likely choose to go during a time that seasonally has hot and sunny weather. This is how you can use seasonal tendencies to add an additional layer to your analysis.
I hope that was insightful and gave you some ideas to test if you've never heard of seasonal tendencies. You can implement this both as a technical or fundamental analyst (or both).
Til next time, happy trading.
- R2F
Ethereum to Lead The Alt Season!Hi guys,
Related to my recent analysis on ETH/BTC, we could very likely see ETH/USD(T) making some big moves, which is already starting to do. This would be very bullish for alt coins as Ethereum leads the alt market.
Check out my analysis in the video to see how I break things down using ICT's Concepts in a very simple and easy way to determine bias and narrative. This works in Forex, Commodities, and of course, Crypto.
Happy trading!
- R2F
XAGUSD - Long Trade IdeaHello all,
I have a long trade possibility forming on XAGUSD.
Basically, my draw on price is the Relative Equal Highs residing above. My POI for taking a trade is where the BISI 2D is. Since we have a SIBI 2D, we should see lower prices to this POI. If price does not reach my POI before trading higher, I would like to see a clean 2D close above the SIBI 2D. Preferably I see price start to halt and create a consolidation at my POI. What I DON'T want to see if price blast right through it and have a 2D candle close below the BISI.
Silver is lagging behind Gold, so I am using that to back up my bias. Based on my proprietary analysis, price SHOULD go to the current target, if not at my POI, then still soon. Of course, we make allowance for wicks, and I will still hold my POI valid should any 2D candle not close below the BISD 2D and no other SIBI 2D be created, at least without an instant rejection through it in the next 2D candle.
Overall, simple and clean by the looks of it. We can always go to the lower timeframes to refine the narrative and frame some trades.
Have a good weekend!
- R2F
Ethereum About to Make a MONSTER MOVE??Hey everybody,
Hope all is well.
Today I take a look at the ETH/BTC chart as there is something significant on it. Price has just reached a YEARLY FVG. Yes, you heard that right. For ICT traders, you know what i'm talking about. This is significant in that large moves can occur. So let's dive in as I do my analysis, clean and simple stuff.
Basically, ETH/USD may be a better choice than BTC/USD in terms of returns. As usual, do not over-leverage or get greedy. This is the yearly chart that I analyzed so patience is paramount.
- R2F
COMPOUND INTEREST: The Secret SauceIn this video I cover the topic of "Compound Interest". I go over the WHAT, WHY, WHO and HOW of it.
The Importance of Compound Interest in Trading
Compound interest is a fundamental concept in the world of finance and trading, offering a powerful mechanism for growing wealth over time. Unlike simple interest, which is calculated only on the principal amount, compound interest is calculated on the principal and also on the accumulated interest of previous periods. This seemingly small difference can significantly impact long-term investment returns.
Amplifying Returns
In trading, compound interest can exponentially increase the growth of your account. When profits from trading are reinvested, they start to generate additional earnings. For example, if a trader earns a 10% return on a $1,000 investment, they would have $1,100 after the first period. In the next period, the 10% return is calculated on the new total of $1,100, resulting in $1,210, and so on. Over multiple periods, this effect leads to exponential growth, far outstripping the returns from simple interest.
Long-Term Benefits
The magic of compound interest becomes particularly evident over longer time horizons. The longer an investment is allowed to compound, the greater the potential growth. For traders, this underscores the importance of patience and a long-term perspective. By consistently reinvesting earnings and allowing them to compound, traders can achieve significant wealth accumulation even if individual trade returns are modest.
Mitigating Risk
Compound interest also highlights the importance of managing risks and minimizing losses. In trading, avoiding substantial losses is crucial because significant drawdowns can severely disrupt the compounding process. A trader who loses a large portion of their capital will need significantly higher returns to recover, which can be challenging. Therefore, prudent risk management and maintaining steady, positive returns are key to leveraging the power of compound interest. Psychology plays a role as well as losing large amounts of your account can negatively affect your decision making.
Conclusion
Understanding and leveraging compound interest is essential for traders aiming to maximize their long-term returns. By reinvesting profits and allowing them to compound over time, traders can achieve exponential growth in their investments. Coupled with effective risk management, the power of compound interest can transform modest returns into substantial wealth, making it a cornerstone of successful trading strategies.
How Many Monitors Do YOU Need? - R2F's Professional OpinionHi everyone,
I get this question occasionally, so I figured I would share my opinion on the matter.
There are many misconceptions about trading or being a professional trader. One of them is, the more monitors you have, the more successful or advanced you are as a trader. That is complete nonsense. In this video I explain what I think the best number of monitors is to have, and hopefully give you some insight into what works for you.
At the end of the day, trading is a personal endeavor and not a one-size-fits-all. Always start with the least, and scale from there, which is the same way you should approach the growth of your trading wealth.
- R2F
R2F Weekly Analysis - 19th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss as you will miss how I analyse the market, the TLDR is that my bullish Dollar bias is on hold until I can see May's candle closes. However, I am slightly leaning for a possibly bearish Dollar to the Yearly Bisi below, but as we know things can change in an instant as this year is also election year in the USA. All my analysis of other pairs revolve around my opinion of the DXY.
Hit me up if you have any analysis request or just want to learn how to do all of this independently by yourself.
- R2F
The 3-Step Method For High-Quality AnalysisIn this video I give you the 3-step method I use to do my analysis.
By incorporating these steps, it is also how I do my top-down analysis. You can think of it as a checklist as well.
First, I have my Bias, which determines where I believe price is drawn to. For example in the case of SMC/ICT Concepts, we observe where the liquidity is in the market and use that to frame where price is likely going to go to sooner or later.
Secondly, I have my Narrative, which is on a lower timeframe, and paints the picture of HOW price is going to form in order to initiate the move to that price target. This usually includes more engineered liquidity on lower timeframes, and manipulation to happen.
Thirdly, I have my Confirmation, which is where I want to enter a trade. This is the lowest of the three timeframes, and is the final point in which I will frame a trade setup. Usually I will look for the exact same things I look for in my Bias and Narrative, but on this timeframe. I also tend to include the factor of time, such as Killzones, Seasonality, and News Drivers.
Note that the timeframes can be anything you want them to be, and you are not restricted from moving from timeframe to timeframe. But, the important thing is to be consistent with WHERE you believe price is going, HOW you think it may get there (this can change as price forms), and again WHERE you are going to enter a trade.
- R2F
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 7 - ETHUSD - (16th May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing ETHUSD, starting from the Monthly chart.
- R2F
EURUSD - A Top-down Analysis (BEARISH BIAS)I'm going to start from the yearly timeframe and work my way down to the monthly, weekly, and lastly the daily timeframe.
Here on the yearly timeframe we have price coming into a yearly SIBI a couple of times before displacing down into a yearly Sibi. After which, we have a close above equilibrium, and the subsequent year came up into a yearly Breaker (Body) before what looks now like a move lower to take out at the very least the previous year's low.
12-MONTH
On the 6-month timeframe we see a nested Sibi support my bearish bias/narrative. At this point I do not see any discount PD Arrays, but I will be mindful of consequent encroachment of large wick of the swing low's candle.
6-MONTH
On a closer review of the 1-month timeframe, we see a monthly BISI seemingly about to close below it. If that is the case, I would like to see a return into that to be treated as an iFVG. My current draw on liquidity is the relative equal lows (Body).
1-MONTH
On the weekly timeframe we have an even clearer picture. The recent displacement is more prominent, and we can see that a weekly SIBI was created into the monthly potential iFVG (BPR). High up at my second POI is a weekly Bearish Orderblock that may still be a viable possibility for price to reach towards. Inside of that is a daily Unicorn model, which can be seen on the current daily chart. Much of my narrative is based on red folder news coinciding with how I am anticipating the weekly candles to close, mostly anticipating it closing below the SIBIs/iFVGs. The closer price gets to one of the major red folder news events such as CPI/PPI/FOMC, the more extreme of a displacement I am expecting. It is also key that I see some sort of manipulation to take place to shake out the retail crowd.
1-WEEK
So, let's see what unfolds in the coming weeks.
Trade safe!
- R2F
Trade Like a Sniper - Episode 6 - XPDUSD - (15th May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing XPDUSD, starting from the Monthly chart.
- R2F
R2F Weekly Analysis - 13th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss, the TLDR is that I am still bullish Dollar and waiting for the manipulation and reversal back to the upside, potentially this week with CPI/PPI/FOMC red folder news occurring. All my analysis of other pairs revolve around this.
I did not go to the sub 4H timeframe in this video, but how I do my analysis on the higher timeframes is the same as how I would look for entries on the lower timeframes. The only difference is that I would consider the ICT Killzones and weekday tendencies along my usual techniques.
Hit me up if you want to learn more or are struggling to find your footing and need help.
- R2F
When Are You READY to Trade with REAL MONEY?Hello hello, R2F here with another discussion.
Today, I'd like to go over the question, 'when do you know you are ready to trade with real money?'
Too many traders rush into trading with real capital before they are ready, and end up losing more money than neccessary on learning journey. People are generally impatient creatures and want to get into actions as soon as possible. Perhaps they want to find out if they are magically a trading savant before wasting time on all the usual work that is required.
However, trading is extremely simple, albeit not easy. The difficult part comes in the form of the investment of time and experience, and refining yourself as a person. Once you had that in the bag, trading offers the potential for generational wealth that comes with the freedom of time.
Without further ado, I share my thoughts on how to approach this burning question.
- R2F
Trade Like a Sniper - Episode 4 - XAGUSD - (10th May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing XAGUSD, starting from the Monthly chart.
- R2F
GBPUSD - Short Trade Idea, Analysis, and ICT EducationHi friends,
I hope everyone is doing well.
In this video I share my analysis and bias with GBPUSD, I show you how I come up with this analysis, and I advocate additional confluences in your analysis as well as demonstrate what I mean. But please note, I am using ICT Concepts. If you aren't familiar, then it wouldn't make sense to you. However, you will probably have your mind blown anyway. No other concepts allow you to predict price action with accuracy before patterns form.
As you know, I've been expecting a stronger USD and Weaker XXXUSD pairs. We have quite a few confluences going on which give me faith in this bias and narrative. You'll have to listen to me ramble in order to find out the sauces that I use for my bearish dish. Apologies to the lazy folks ;)
I implore you to go into your own charts and study the same thing. If not, you'll be cheating yourselves.
- R2F