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Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 7 - ETHUSD - (16th May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing ETHUSD, starting from the Monthly chart. - R2F
BINANCE:ETHUSD
by Road_2_Funded
EURUSD - A Top-down Analysis (BEARISH BIAS)I'm going to start from the yearly timeframe and work my way down to the monthly, weekly, and lastly the daily timeframe. Here on the yearly timeframe we have price coming into a yearly SIBI a couple of times before displacing down into a yearly Sibi. After which, we have a close above equilibrium, and the subsequent year came up into a yearly Breaker (Body) before what looks now like a move lower to take out at the very least the previous year's low. 12-MONTH On the 6-month timeframe we see a nested Sibi support my bearish bias/narrative. At this point I do not see any discount PD Arrays, but I will be mindful of consequent encroachment of large wick of the swing low's candle. 6-MONTH On a closer review of the 1-month timeframe, we see a monthly BISI seemingly about to close below it. If that is the case, I would like to see a return into that to be treated as an iFVG. My current draw on liquidity is the relative equal lows (Body). 1-MONTH On the weekly timeframe we have an even clearer picture. The recent displacement is more prominent, and we can see that a weekly SIBI was created into the monthly potential iFVG (BPR). High up at my second POI is a weekly Bearish Orderblock that may still be a viable possibility for price to reach towards. Inside of that is a daily Unicorn model, which can be seen on the current daily chart. Much of my narrative is based on red folder news coinciding with how I am anticipating the weekly candles to close, mostly anticipating it closing below the SIBIs/iFVGs. The closer price gets to one of the major red folder news events such as CPI/PPI/FOMC, the more extreme of a displacement I am expecting. It is also key that I see some sort of manipulation to take place to shake out the retail crowd. 1-WEEK So, let's see what unfolds in the coming weeks. Trade safe! - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
2
Trade Like a Sniper - Episode 6 - XPDUSD - (15th May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing XPDUSD, starting from the Monthly chart. - R2F
OANDA:XPDUSD
by Road_2_Funded
R2F Weekly Analysis - 13th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it! If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss, the TLDR is that I am still bullish Dollar and waiting for the manipulation and reversal back to the upside, potentially this week with CPI/PPI/FOMC red folder news occurring. All my analysis of other pairs revolve around this. I did not go to the sub 4H timeframe in this video, but how I do my analysis on the higher timeframes is the same as how I would look for entries on the lower timeframes. The only difference is that I would consider the ICT Killzones and weekday tendencies along my usual techniques. Hit me up if you want to learn more or are struggling to find your footing and need help. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
When Are You READY to Trade with REAL MONEY?Hello hello, R2F here with another discussion. Today, I'd like to go over the question, 'when do you know you are ready to trade with real money?' Too many traders rush into trading with real capital before they are ready, and end up losing more money than neccessary on learning journey. People are generally impatient creatures and want to get into actions as soon as possible. Perhaps they want to find out if they are magically a trading savant before wasting time on all the usual work that is required. However, trading is extremely simple, albeit not easy. The difficult part comes in the form of the investment of time and experience, and refining yourself as a person. Once you had that in the bag, trading offers the potential for generational wealth that comes with the freedom of time. Without further ado, I share my thoughts on how to approach this burning question. - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
39
Trade Like a Sniper - Episode 4 - XAGUSD - (10th May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing XAGUSD, starting from the Monthly chart. - R2F
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDEducation
by Road_2_Funded
GBPUSD - Short Trade Idea, Analysis, and ICT EducationHi friends, I hope everyone is doing well. In this video I share my analysis and bias with GBPUSD, I show you how I come up with this analysis, and I advocate additional confluences in your analysis as well as demonstrate what I mean. But please note, I am using ICT Concepts. If you aren't familiar, then it wouldn't make sense to you. However, you will probably have your mind blown anyway. No other concepts allow you to predict price action with accuracy before patterns form. As you know, I've been expecting a stronger USD and Weaker XXXUSD pairs. We have quite a few confluences going on which give me faith in this bias and narrative. You'll have to listen to me ramble in order to find out the sauces that I use for my bearish dish. Apologies to the lazy folks ;) I implore you to go into your own charts and study the same thing. If not, you'll be cheating yourselves. - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
3
"The Bodies Tell The Story.. The Wicks Do The Damage" - ICTIn this video I'm going to go through one of ICT's most famous sayings, which is "The bodies tell the story, and the wicks do the damage". If haven't taken the time to understand what he means, then you are seriously putting yourself at a disadvantage if you are using his concepts. This is one of the most crucial and useful pieces of the ICT puzzle. You often hear him say that the wicks are painting outside of the lines, which he sees as permissable when he is trading his PD Arrays. So without further ado, I'll try my best to provide some insight. For illustrative purposes I'll use his Market Maker Sell Model. Just to note that this is not a video teaching about his market maker models, so the focus will not be on that or his other concepts. If you don't understand a certain term or concept, please check out ICT's YouTube Channel or the countless other resources online. This video will be predominantly shedding some light on candle bodies and wicks. I urge you to go into your own charts and do your own study. This will truly be something eye opening if it is the first time you've actually decided to take notice. - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
2
Delusions of Grandeur - Breaking Your Trading ModelIn this video I would like to talk about a mistake many beginners as well as intermediate traders make, which is having a potentially profitable trading model, and pushing it to the point it stops working. I will discuss WHY it happens, WHY it never works, and WHY you should avoid this blunder. Your trading model is the strategy that you use to trade with. It can include how you determine your entries, stoplosses, and targets, as well as how you manage risk. The only way to know if a trading model works, and how well it works if it even does at all, is through backtesting and forwardtesting. The more data you collect, the more insight into the model you will have. The main thing I want you to keep in mind is that a trading model’s efficacy relies on collected data, and this data must be consistent. It’s the same as any other industry that does research on their market or products. So, why do so many traders push a model until it stops yielding them profit? I would say the first reason is impatience. Humans are impatient, especially nowadays in this of social media and technology. Some traders won’t spend the time doing all the necessary testing required. They want to start making money as quick as possible, but little do they know they end up losing their account as quick as possible. Secondly, it takes time for your setups to appear in the market. People have this naturally preconceived notion that you need to be doing something in order to be working and making money. This is the complete opposite in trading, which goes against our programming. So what ends up happening is traders being less stringent with their model’s criteria just so they can trade more often. Next is greed. Generally speaking, the safest way to survive as a trader in the long run is through compound interest. Risking small, and letting the math do the work. But that’s not very sexy. Many traders go against their logical risk rules in order to potentially make more money, or more likely, lose more money, or all of it. Boredom is a factor as well. Seeking excitement from trading is a one-way ticket to blowing your account. You’ll never make it as a trader if you think like that. All good systems are rarely thrilling. It is perfectly fine to be in love with trading, but it should not get your heart racing. It all comes down to being disciplined. Doing the work, putting in the time, and following the trading model you have either adopted or created yourself. It absolutely doesn’t matter if you have losing trades. It absolutely doesn’t matter if your trade setup appears only once or twice a month. Those are not hindering you from becoming very wealthy in due time. But, running around jumping from strategy to strategy, not sticking to a model’s rules, those things will ensure that you never make it as a trader. It is as simple as that. I know, it is not easy for many of you. It wasn’t easy for me as well. I am naturally face-paced. So, one piece of advice I have is cultivate organized baby steps. What does that mean? Clearly plan what you want to achieve, and then start with frequent tiny goals that you have no reason to not accomplish. For example, you want to collect data for 500 backtested trades. Start with the goal of backtesting 1 trade per day for a week. The important part here is not only making sure you do that 1 trade backtest, but making sure you ONLY do 1. If you are in the “mood” to do more, DON’T. What would it demonstrate if your decisions are based on your mood? What will happen when you are in the mood to do none? If you say 1 trade, stick to 1 trade. After a week, you can stick with 1 or scale up to 2 backtested trades per day for a week if you are ready, or perhaps a month, it’s up to you. This is just an example. You can apply this method to anything. Basically, you want to condition yourself to be consistent and disciplined. You want to show yourself that YOU are the boss of your life. YOU consciously decide what happens, not your emotions. The only way to do that is to grow that muscle bit by bit. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. - R2F
FX:XAUUSD
by Road_2_Funded
The Value of an Unbiased BiasHi everyone, In this video I would like to discuss the value of having an unbiased bias when it comes to your analysis. It’s a dry subject with only a little chart illustrating near the end, but the boring stuff usually tends to be the most important topics when it comes to making it in this industry. I think most of us are familiar with the word ‘bias’. For those that aren’t, basically, in the context of trading, all it means is being in favour of the market moving either to the upside or downside. Your bias comes by means of your analysis and can be related to any timeframe. For example, I could have a bullish bias on a higher timeframe monthly chart, and a bearish bias for the lower timeframe daily chart. Now, you don’t HAVE to always have a bias. If you don’t know, then you simple don’t know, and there is nothing wrong with that, it would be unreasonable and nonsensical to think otherwise. But, sometimes your bias is wrong, which leads me to the topic of this video. I believe even for traders who don’t know how to form a technical bias, do so anyway in the form of psychological bias. Most of the time, we think the market is either going up or down, hence why we would even get into a long or short position. The tricky part is being flexible and changing your bias when the market is indicating you are clearly wrong. Smart Money knows how we think, and they know how to create sentiment in the marketplace. This is why its crucial to be able to change your bias on a dime, WHEN it is applicable, WHEN your analysis is showing you, and NOT for any other reason. The later you are to the party, the less pips you can catch, and the less likely your trades will win. As humans, we tend to cling to our beliefs. We block out any evidence indicating that we may be wrong about them. And when the market is showing us that we may be wrong, we just tell ourselves “Well now the market is offering me more pips, I have to get in on this move!”, hence one reason how you get long or short squeezes. - R2F
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by Road_2_Funded
R2F Weekly Analysis - 5th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Hi everyone, Here we are at another Sunday. Time for some analysis. Everything I had to say is covered in the video, but for a TLDR; I am still bullish on the Dollar. Although, I'm not convinced we have reached an intermediate bottom yet. I'm still waiting for more confirmation in order to have the highest probability of being on-side. Comparing with other forex assets, I also have the same sentiment. Lower prices for XXXUSD and higher prices for USDXXX, but still waiting for more confirmation for a larger swing trade. For now, scalps at most. Have a good trading week you guys. Stay safe out there. - R2F
TVC:DXY
by Road_2_Funded
2
EURUSD - Updated Analysis (Bearish Bias)Hello hello, I am anticipating TWO possible scenarios. For context, you would have to know ICT's Concepts, particularly Time & Price Theory, Price Delivery Continuum, and the PD Array Matrix. Sounds fancy shmancy, but it isn't, it's actually quite beautiful. Anyway, the TWO scenarios are: 1. Price comes up into the RED circle area. We have a large inefficiency on lower timeframes. On the Weekly we see a Body Breaker and a New Month Opening Gap. After that, price displaces lower this Thursday or Friday as there is also NFP. What i'm looking for is price closing below the current SIBI that the Weekly candle is in. 2. Price does not come up to that area this week, then I am looking for a 3W Sibi to be created and traded into first before moving lower. But preferably, I would like to see that no Weekly candle closes above the current Weekly gap. Please refer to my previous EURUSD analysis for more information on what I am looking for, and how I am looking for it. - R2F
by Road_2_Funded
2
EURUSD - Time to trap the herd going long?As mentioned in my previous analysis on EURUSD, what I was looking for came to pass. The large swing move did not occur yet, so i'm anticipating one more spike up higher before we head to the downside. I have a few things leaning towards my short bias: 1. Seasonal tendency for the USD is stronger. This is suspect for XXXUSD pairs to be going up. 2. May's monthly candle barely went lower in terms of Power of 3 manipulation, meaning i'm leaning more towards the manipulation being on the upside rather than downside. 3. DXY has my signature R2F Gap where I anticipate a reversal on EURUSD, and EURUSD has a nice area of inefficiency and a Breaker, which are both my favorite models. 4. Other EURUSD correlated assets are engineering Sellside Liquidity for later. A long could be taken higher, but I will be stalking the short setup i've been waiting for. I was open to it being the recent spike lower, but I see now the market is trying to do a multiple switcheroo. This will likely be the last one. So let's see what happens! Exciting times! - R2F
TVC:DXYShort
by Road_2_Funded
Crude Oil WTI - Long Trade IdeaHello hello, My bias is still long. I will link that analysis to this one. So, I am looking for a continuation to the upside. At the moment, everything looks good for a continuation to the upside. The Monthly candle closed above the annotated Monthly SIBI, and a new Monthly BISI was created. What i'm looking now is for price to come into any of those areas, but it will likely enter both. I have annotated 2 POIs for a trade on the Daily timeframes. My "R2F" and "Megaphone" setups are ready to go. The stoplosses illustrated are standard, so the safest thing to do is to wait for confirmation before solidifying a stoploss. The Monthly candle only JUST opened, and as we know the wicks can paint outside of the lines. Anyway, I'm looking forward to see how this pans out. I don't usually trade Oil, but futures are generally cleaner than some Forex pairs like USDJPY. - R2F
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Road_2_Funded
2
EURUSD - Long Trade IdeaHello folks, I am generally bearish on EURUSD at the moment, and I am still waiting for lower prices, but we could see more bullish momentum first. The logic behind this is of course to lure more bullish traders into the market, but I also do not see any significantly high impact news yet. However, if you see my other analysis, I am looking for a monthly close below the Monthly iFVG in order to be used as resistance, as mentioned in my previous analysis. That being said, take this trade idea as less than a A+ setup. Most of the probability of this trade lies price being at a ranged Discount, and in the efficacy of my R2F Gap coupled with a possible London Judas Swing. Safe trading! - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
NZDUSD - Short Trade Idea (ICT)Hello hello everyone, I see a potentially nice trade forming on NZDUSD. A possible 500+ pips to be had as a swing position. As you can see, my bias is bearish. I believe we will target the Relative Equal Lows below. I would have to see price start to move lower in the general vicinity of the illustrated path lines. If I don't get an entry in that area, then I would be keen to take one at the Bisi 2W R2F gap should we get a 2W close below it and then a retracement back into it. Let's see how it goes! - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
GBPJPY - Long Trade IdeaI like the long idea here. If the current day can form a Bisi, that would be fantastic. After that I would just be looking price to trade back into the Bisi, into one of the key Breaker levels annotated, at the right time of the day, then STRIKE. The highest-probability target would be the recent high, and the next discretionary target would be my Wick Chair model (out of view), which basically also has some EQHs as well. A runner could be left for even higher prices should both targets be hit. The stoploss is discretionary for a better RR as this is the Daily timeframe. The safest option would be the protected low annotated on the chart. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
EURUSD - Short Trade IdeaThis is just a "prediction" on what may occur on EURUSD. Price has reversed to the upside since bottoming out on the 2nd of April 2024. This coincides with the US Dollars seasonal tendency. However, I have been bullish dollar and expecting a continuation of lower prices on XXXUSD currencies. Currently, I am waiting for a reversal to occur, preceded by a final fake-out to bait the herd into going long. This would likely happen at a high-impact news driver such as the upcoming CPI or PPI. There is a Hidden Bearish Orderblock on the 4h timeframe, so that currently is my area of interest for this event to happen. Of course, this is all just anticipation. If the sequence of events in time and price do not align, I will just wait on the sidelines for more confirmation in market structure. - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
FOREX Pre-Week Analysis by R2F (Monday, 15th April 2024)Hello hello, guys! We have a new week ahead. Here is my analysis for my bias moving forward. For those who are lazy, I am basically bullish on the Dollar and bearish for XXXUSD pairs. But I suggest going through the video as I explain how I came to this bias as well as offer analysis for each of the major Forex pairs. We are in turbulent times, so trade safe out there. Protecting your capital is your NO.1 priority. It is not the time to go turbo mode all-in kamikaze style. - R2F
by Road_2_Funded
USDCAD - Long Trade IdeaThis is a long trade idea I have, based on the abundance of buyside liquidity in the form of relative equal highs that extend beyond the left of the chart, as well as the trendline resistance building up below it. Whilst it is possible for price to make new lows, my focus is on HOW and WHEN price reacts when it gets to this POI. Although the DXY seems overextended, many of the XXXUSD pairs have yet to reach their draw on liquidity, furthermore, they have created even more relative equal lows. This further adds to my USDCAD bias. My only concern is that the DXY generally sees more seasonally bearish sentiment during the month of April. Let's see what pans out. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded