EURUSD - Short Trade IdeaBearish trade idea on EURUSD.
The next DOL/Target from my point of view is the REQLs below 1.0795 at the first objective.
My POI to look for a short is within the 12h Sibi residing not too far away which is also a Unicorn setup. There is news on Tuesday, either to initiate the manipulation and reversal, or continuation of the reversal that will happen today (Monday, 25th March 2024). This is what I am anticipating and will wait for price to show evidence of a reversal before initiating a short.
- R2F
R2f
Crude Oil WTI - Analysis (ICT)Simple analysis on the Monthly timeframes.
There is trendline liquidity residing above, which I believe is the next draw on price.
With that in mind, I noticed price react nicely off of a 5-Month FVG and Orderblock. With that in mind, I'm anticipating price using the current Sibi that it is in to become an iFVG. I would like to see a Monthly candle close above it and then use it or a created Bisi as support to trade higher.
Life is simple, don't complicate it.
- R2F
DXY - Bearish Outlook? (ICT)This is my analysis on the Dollar Index.
It seems to me that DXY is finally ready to move lower, at least in the short-term. The seasonality of the DXY peaks about now and weakens all the way until the start of May. Whilst this is not the core of the analysis, it helps add more confluence.
Price-wise, I notice that last week's high took out the bodies of the previous 2 weeks before displacing to the downside, leaving a lovely Unicorn setup. In my eyes, this is already good to look for a short in that area. Further confluence is there is trendline sellside liquidity building up, so for a narrative we may be looking for price to touch/pierce or come close to it first before entering the Unicorn setup. If more sellside liquidity is created before entering the setup, even better.
Let's see how it goes!
- R2F
GBPUSD - Analysis (ICT)This is a possible scenario for GBPUSD, annotated on the 1h timeframe.
Price just took out sellside liquidity and reversed back up rapidly during news on the 1st March 2024. There is much trendline liquidity residing above, but there is also a 3-week and monthly FVG below (off screen).
The narrative I have in mind is for price to at least either make one more high near the C.E of the NDOG or slightly piercing the trendline, then heading to the downside. Or, for a bullish scenario, price breaks convincingly above the trendline, then finds support to move higher.
Let's see what unfolds.
- R2F
USDJPY - Short Trade Idea (ICT)This is a short trade idea for the Gopher.
There are equal highs as a target above, but I believe we will possibly head to the downside first towards the sellside liquidity and a signature Weekly R2F Gap, coupled with a refined Daily and 6h gap.
What I will be looking for is a convincing shift in market structure and displacement on a lower timeframe to validate this narrative, of course, at an appropriate day of week and time of day.
Let's see how this plays out!
- R2F
EURUSD - Trade Idea (ICT)Intraday trade idea on the EURUSD.
I see a reaction off a signature 2-day R2F Gap to give me a bullish bias to take price possibly to the highs.
For narrative, I see a signature 30m R2F Gap as a possible entry to take me up to the relative equal highs where my "low hanging fruit" objective lies. I have added confidence for the 2nd objective due to the trendline buyside liquidity on GBPUSD. However, this bias/narrative is still not ironclad as there have been a lot of N(D/W)OGs on the chart, at least for the FXCM data which I usually use.
Trade with caution.
- R2F
Top-Down Analysis (The CORRECT Approach!)In this video I go through how to effectively do a top-down analysis, and avoid common mistakes.
This can apply to any type of trading methodology, but here the focus will be on ICT’s liquidity and inefficiency concepts.
This topic is important to traders who are keen on improving their win-rate and catching those higher RR trades. Whilst those things don’t define a successful trader, only consistent profitability and sound risk management do, I believe an effective top-down approach to framing trades is a worthwhile endeavor. Better trade setups give you less stress, more profits, and more freedom of time.
What is a "top-down analysis"?
It is basically doing your analysis on a higher timeframe to get in line with where you or your strategy is showing price is likely moving to, then on a lower timeframe to wait for your trade setup to form, and then either entering on that timeframe or going to an even lower timeframe for an entry signal. For example, if the weekly chart is bearish, and you see a bullish candle on the hourly chart, you may be fooled into trading in the wrong direction. For the highest probability, you need to be in sync with the higher timeframe.
My approach is split into 3 parts:
1. I have my BIAS which is built on the monthly, weekly, and daily timeframe. This helps me determine the direction I want to trade in. If my analysis is bullish, I want to look for longs, and vice versa for shorts.
2. Then I have my NARRATIVE, aka my ‘story’ of how my setup may form on a lower timeframe, usually the 1-4h timeframe. For example, I may be looking for a specific pool of liquidity to be swept at a certain time of the day.
3. Thirdly, I have my CONFIRMATION, which is usually based on the 5-15m timeframe.
I hope you found this video insightful and that it helps enhance your trading.
If you need clarification about the content, or you are still struggling with finding your groove as a trader and need personal guidance or mentorship, feel free to reach out to me via TradingView’s private message or on X (formerly known as Twitter).
Til next time, happy trading.
- R2F
GBPUSD - Trade Idea (ICT Concepts)I'm anticipating lower prices on GBPUSD. The CPI move yesterday confirmed this bias. I am now looking for continuation lower. I don't believe price will move too much higher to fill the inefficiency. There is a signature Gap on the 4h timeframe that I will be framing this short on.
Possibly adding confluence with a Judas Swing coupled with the Classic Tuesday High of the Week.
The stoploss is for illustration only. I would wait for a lower timeframe shift in market structure along with BISIs being disrespected and SIBIs being created.
- R2F
Understanding the ICT BREAKAWAY GAPIn this video I go through the ICT Breakaway Gap and how YOU can use it to your advantage. I include some tips and tricks with a real trade setup demonstration.
The Breakaway Gap may have been an elusive concept to understand, but I present a simple way you can spot them on the chart and frame your trades around them. It is a powerful weapon that can be used to snag some awesome trades.
Simple put, the Breakaway Gap is a gap that does not get traded into with the NEXT FEW CANDLES. Emphasis on the last part because price is fractal, and the best way to frame a trade with ICT's Concepts is by taking a few candles on the higher timeframe for your bias, and going to a lower timeframe to form your narrative, and either entering on that timeframe or even going to a lower timeframe for your entry.
Hopefully this gives you some insight into one of the many concepts that ICT has bestowed upon the public.
If you need clarification about the content, or you are still struggling with finding your groove as a trader and need personal guidance or mentorship, feel free to reach out to me via TradingView’s private message or on X.
Happy trading and happy studying!
- R2F
AUD/USD - Loose Price PredictionHere is a loose prediction on how AUD/USD will move on the hourly timeframe using ICT Concepts, just for fun.
This prediction is based on an hourly Breaker and a signature R2F Gap.
Remember, to only trade what you see and not what you think. Our minds can play tricks on us.
- R2F
USD - FULL ANALYSIS [ICT Concepts]In the video I go through the timeframes in a top-down analysis, starting all the way from the yearly timeframe, down to the hourly timeframes. I share my thoughts on what I am looking for in order to build a bias for taking new trades.
The key indicator for me is the creation of new Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and the disrespect of previous Fair Value Gaps. Occasionally, I add the confluence of Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks.
Hope this is insightful.
- R2F
(Phantom) FTMUSDT AnalysisA short foreword. I do believe Bitcoin will come back to retest around the 40k levels. It is currently consolidating in a range with equal lows. Below the equal lows lie a void on the futures chart that has not been filled yet. I'm expecting some sort of manipulation move to the downside then a bounce back up as i'm still overall bullish on Bitcoin for now.
Everything I had to say about Phantom is in the video.
DXY Analysis - Monthly & Weekly Timeframe (ICT Concepts)Reacted BEARISH off of PREMIUM with hard displacement.
Now looking BEARISH at DISCOUNT zones.
3W candle closed below a Bisi 3W, but reacted off of lower Bisi 3W. Based on this timeframe, I want to see if price wants to move towards the higher disrespected Bisi 3W and then react bearish. That disrespected Bisi 3W is almost a 1M Bisi. It would make the most sense that if price were bearish is for it to come to a PREMIUM zone for that swing range into the Bisi 1M (BPR) before heading lower.
The bias is not concreate at the moment, so be wary of any change in narrative during high-impact news drivers and the general structure on lower timeframes.
Lower timeframe may present long opportunities to this shorting POI, but price may create a Sibi first.
- R2F
DXY - Intraday Analysis (ICT)My DXY interest for today.
Assuming the last dump was to trap shorts, with the confluence of trading into a Monthly Bisi and Monthly Breaker (Body) and New Month Opening Gap. I am interested to see if this can now move higher.
It also traded off a Daily Bisi then broke higher, again playing around a 4h Sibi, and now seems to be moving lower. There is a 1h Balanced Price Range inside a Breaker on this timeframe at OTE of that range. I would like to see it react off of there, go higher, use the 4h gap as support, then move higher to target an actual liquidity void above.
E-mini S&P - Weekly Timeframe Analysis Price had a relatively convincing reversal back to the upside.
In my opinion the highest yielding position would be a long from the weekly Bisi annotated on the chart. A short could be identified from the weekly Sibi, but I would be wary that the Sibi could be used as a point of support of there are Discount PD Arrays on lower timeframes within.
A possible target would be the relative equal highs residing near the top of the highest weekly swing.
USDJPY - Long Trade Idea (ICT)Based my bullish bias for the US Dollar (DXY), I am expecting USDJPY to head higher as well.
Last week price traded to a clear 4-hour Order Block before retracing and ending the week. Now there are 2 general areas where I expect price to move higher from and create new highs.
1. There are a few PD Arrays with my interest in this area, most of them overlapping. At the very least, I am anticipating the 8-hour Bisi to be traded into, and possible digging into the 45-minute Bisi and subsequent Order Blocks below.
2. There is an Order Block with a 2-hour Bisi in this zone. I could permit price to come into this area if price action was slow to get there, or if it were fast to get there I would allow for a sharp rejection.
- R2F
AUDUSD - Short Trade Idea(Refer to my linked HTF analysis on AUDUSD)
I still have Interest in the Buyside Liquidity mentioned in my previous post on AUDUSD.
Price took out the annotated Sellside Liquidity, however, not by much. I'm expecting one more run lower with a proper Daily candle close before we move up towards the Buyside Liquidity.
I will be waiting for a convincing displacement that breaks structure to confirm this narrative. Before that, only scalps.
EURUSD - Story Time (ICT)This is just a possible narrative that may unfold. Do not trade based on this without the proper confirmation. This is not a signal.
If Phase 2 extends higher, then will look for possible NY/News reversal. If price breaks utmost swing high, then I will post where I think price will likely gravitate towards to.