Get started

Rallies

This is nuts, or I'm nuts--or BOTHMaybe this is well known among the crypto community. I don't know. I'm kinda here in my own little bubble. I was organizing and setting up a ginormous list of crypto charts when I noticed that there were a few odd coincidences about the 2021 rallies. In my estimate, there were three major rallies last year (Spring, Summer, Fall) and two minor ones (January, December). Many--most--of the cryptos I was charting would start going on bullish rallies at the same time. Not much of a surprise there. Wherever Bitcoin goes, everyone follows. I used the Date and Price Range tool to explore this curiosity. What I found interesting was that the rallies tended to start on the second-to-last week of the month. Not all of them did, but most did. The coins that followed these trends had been around for a while. New coins took a few months to find their sea legs, and then they follow the same flow. Some didn't have a rally in autumn. I kept seeing this pattern, so I set up a Google Sheet and crunched the numbers of 20 popular coins. Here was what I found. Spring Rally Start - March 25 or 26 (37.5%) | April 25 or 26 (43.8%) Summer Rally Start - July 21 (100%) Autumn Rally Start - Sept 21 or 22 (16.6%) | Sept 29 (75%) OTHER OBSERVATIONS - Percentagewise, newer coins enjoyed greater gains than the more popular Bitcoin, Etherium, and Litecoin. - For a majority of coins, the rallies lasted 40-50 days for summer and autumn rallies. I measured from the first to last green bars in definite reversals. Out of the 20 that I checked, they ranked as follows: SPRING RALLY TOP FIVE MATIC 535.31% LUNA 311.24% XRP 274.79% BNB 195.42% DOGE 174.18% SPRING RALLY BOTTOM FIVE BTC 30.06% ALGO 44.88% AVAX 52.98% ATOM 59.79% ETH 62.41% SUMMER RALLY TOP FIVE SOL 737.22% LUNA 638.88% AVAX 531.77% ATOM 382.08% DOT 250.04% SUMMER RALLY BOTTOM FIVE BTC 76.76% WBTC 79.69% BNB 93.60% DOGE 99.41% UNI 109.44% AUTUMN RALLY TOP FIVE MATIC 175.74% AVAX 152.27% LUNA 118.76% DOT 106.55% SOL 100.17% AUTUMN RALLY BOTTOM FIVE UNI 41.97% XRP 43.54% DASH 60.07% BTC 64.53% LINK 64.95% These were the percentage gains for the Spring, Summer, and Autumn Rallies. Those that didn't get rallies I just blanked them. ATOM 59.79% 382.08% DOT 65.52% 250.04% 106.55% LUNA 311.24% 638.88% 118.76% BTC 30.06% 76.76% 64.53% ALGO 44.88% 226.58% SOL 125.24% 737.22% 100.17% LINK 105.31% 153.27% 64.95% XRP 274.79% 162.94% 43.54% WBTC 79.69% 65.83% ETH 62.41% 125.60% 73.54% BNB 195.42% 93.60% 98.74% LTC 73.74% 121.38% 87.54% MATIC 535.31% 160.93% 175.74% ADA 116.96% 180.54% AVAX 52.98% 531.77% 152.27% DASH 135.27% 117.89% 60.07% SUSHI 133.88% DOGE 174.18% 99.41% UNI 109.44% 41.97% MY TAKEAWAYS Maybe this is a psychological cycle. Many were expecting that January Bounce that the stock market usually gets, but that didn't happen. Crypto works on different cycles. So if this whackadoodle observation has any prophecy, anticipate seasonal rallies to start around the 21st to 29th of a month. Everyone's talking about Bitcoin and Etherium hitting major supports--I believe the supports that launched the Autumn Rally. If the rally starts, though, I wouldn't focus on the Crypto-Biggies like BTC and ETH. I'd watch SOL, AVAX, MATIC, and definitely LUNA.
by ZenKimchi
3
Similar MACD histogram ranges for BTCI used a “Price range” to measure the difference between the highest and lowest MACD histogram for BTC on the 1D chart for the following 2 periods. I picked the top of the previous BTC rally and the bottom of the subsequent dip (ie. 9-22 Jan) as one period to take the MACD measurement. For the second period I chose a similar period, ie. the top on 22 Feb to the recent 28 Feb low. Note that I did not measure the MACD histogram value on the exact dates of the top and bottom, but used the highest and lowest MACD histogram values around the same period. I observed that the percentage difference between the top and bottom of the MACD histograms is similar. For the first period: 209%, for the second period 211%. Perhaps this is a useful pattern to help identify future post-rally bottoms during this long-term bullrun. I’d appreciate your opinions on this, especially if you are a fan of MACD!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by tantraguy
1
SHORT THE RALLIES!!---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis : been running up for the day, looking for the steam to run out by the time it Reaches the level which is well located. Trend : Sideways Momentum : UP Strategy : S3 - Support & Resistance Direction : SHORT Entry : 1.09599 Stop : 1.09788 Target 1 : 1.098366 Target 2 : 1.08806 Risk : 1% of the account Break Even : move stop to break even upon price reaching 1st Target Reward : 1:2+
Short
by BLADE_INVESTMENTS
ETHUSD Range trading whilst DXY ralliesETHUSD Range trading whilst DXY rallies Dollar strength today is forcing Alts onto a back foot. See DXY charts and comments to get a better handle on when to trade these, needing DXY weakness to really thrive with the tail- wind behind them. But when this littel dollar counter-rally ends DXY should fall back to 91, over 2% from here and give the Alts a big boost at that point. We are long here from 463 (stops just 2 points below) but it's struggling...look to take the meagre 2% profit at 473. These 9 or 10 points can then be used as stops for the next trade,which will trigger on a break above the dynamic coming off the recent high..as usual we need to see a decent break at that point, greencandles, increased volume to know it's good, surviving any retest of the line from above once broken. Then it will have to break above 477 and that longer term dynamic which is currently arresting any chance of meaningful advance form here. Once it can manage that ETH should run free - a good place to either enter long or increase if not already in. But until we see that ETH is likely to drift, a sell/take profits from 473 and and a buy again at 463. Range trading for day traders here working between the lines, which seem to be working quite well on this pair.
BITTREX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
EURUSD: Continue to sell EUR rallies up to neckline of HandSEURUSD The sell off from the neckline of the large Head and Shoulders top formation above it hasn't been particularly aggressive so far, but the littlle rally attempt today has been severely knocked back. DXY hasn't quite finished unwinding the recent overbought condition after a recent near 2% spurt (see comment) and will likely move sideways to mildly down for a few days yet, finding buyers again at 94.41 and forcing EUR a little higher here, potentially back to the neck line itself at 1.1665 at the peak of DXY weakness but likely no higher - look to sell EUR into any further strength from here towards the neckline with a stop 40 pips above and/or when 1.1545 is broken on downside looking for a staggered decline back to a minimum downside target at 1.1241. It's still likely to bounce the next time it touches the lower parallel and to recoil sharply from any encounters with the upper parallel (at best) until the target is achieved. Continue to sell EUR rallies.
Short
by sumastardon
USD/ DXY: FOMC DUDLEY & WILLIAMS - BREXIT & US ECONOMY SPILLOVER1. IMO Dudley tipped to the dovish side, especially on key inflation highlighting that it is " rising again, but still low". Other rhetoric reaffirmed much of what has been said post the brexit vote e.g. Uncertainty being the biggest factor. 2. Meanwhile, Williams was notably more upbeat/ optimistic, shrugging off the US's shock miss NFP report to instead point out that the underlying trend remains upward. He also relatively underplayed Brexit by saying his baseline view is that it will have a "modest impact" vs Dudleys sitting on the fence of "too soon to say". Further, Williams went on to underplay Brexit as a "normal global economic uncertainty". 3. Nonetheless, both found common ground regarding the "Uncertainty" surrounding the Brexit US spillover effects and "data dependency" being key for FOMC decisions. This has been the case not only between the two today but also for several members in the past few weeks/ months. 4. USD now looks to FOMC Minutes from the June Meeting for any further hints of net member direction and NFP on Friday. I expect much of the same, with bias to Dudley's more cautious/ dovish approach likely to underlie the Minutes but hopefully an outstanding NFP report to spur the USD. 5. The 30-day Federal Funds Rate futures market sold-off Fridays Hawkish gains today, with the Implied Probability of a 25bps FOMC rate hike significantly flattened across the curve, with a Sept/ Nov Hike now at 0% vs 5.9%, Dec at 13.7% vs 22.3% and Feb 2017 at 13.4% vs 21.8%. We also saw a dovish skew across the tenors in favour of a 25bps cut, with Sept/Nov probabilities increasing to 2.4% vs 2.2% Sept and 4.4% vs 2.2% Nov. July expectations traded flat at 97.6% no change. 6. Nonetheless, it was William's bias that won the day as DXY Traded well offered, up 66pips at 96.21, much of which driven by the risk-off turn markets have taken, sending USD higher across the board, most notably against the antipodeans (RBA driven), CAD (oil 4% lower) and GBP (down 2%) as BOE Gov Carney continued to provide dovish sentiment. Also imo earnings season $ demand may have started to price the index higher. 7. Going forward I expect to see continued USD strength across the board as GBP, the Antipodeans, CAD and JPY are likely to realise weakness on the back of poor economic fundamentals, brexit, and further oil falling (global growth worries - brexit/ china linked). Also I expect BOJ easing to price UJ higher in the near future which, all in all, should provide the perfect environment for a higher DXY and USD especially against JPY, NZD and GBP over the next 4-6wks for the attached reasons. End of week DXY should close up 3%+ if NFP comes in firm/ strong - 98.5 target Dudley on US Economy: - Dudley: Brexit Main Uncertainty, Too Soon to Say Impact Yet - Dudley: Investment in U.S. Also an Uncertainty - Dudley: Inflation Is Rising Again, But Still Low - Dudley: Fed Policy Remains Data Dependent - Dudley: Uncertain Outlook Means Can't Predict Fed's Next Move Williams on Brexit: - "I think the economic effects, on the baseline scenario, are relatively modest, but there still is the uncertainty about how things are actually going to play out," - "I would say that what's happened with Brexit has been just one of the normal uncertainties that always occur in the global economy and things that we just have to take into account," - On the poor US Jobs Report - "the underlying trend continues to be good, continues to be above trend and continues to show that the economy is strengthening and not weakening,"
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading