Rally
NZDJPY Potentially heading to pre-covid19 levelsTechnically
- On a strong resistance --> Hopeful to see slight retest before break up to levels before Covid-19
Fundamentals
- Risk on --> Economies around the world are opening up, this will potentially result to selloff in safe havens assets like Japanese Yen and Gold, this will likely result in medium term selloff of JPY against other countries currencies NZD in particular.
We are having a medium term bullish bias in the pair
If weekly closes above 10.5k, a new rally will startIt is looking better and better for the emergence of a new rally, despite all odds.
Now, if the weekly candle closes above 10.5k this week, this will be a huge cofirmation, the one we need to be very sure that we will indeed see a giant new bullmarket.
This will culminate in hitting 20k still this year, and new all time highs by late 2020 or early 2021. 100k and more by late 2021.
However, only if the weekly really closes above 10.5k. If not, this still could be a fake breakout, like the last times almost 1 year ago. So we must be patient and see what BTC will want to do.
But the chances for a rally have greatly increased now. BTC is still full of surprises.
BTC: Revisit of MA200 likelyI suspect that BTC's inability to break through 10k decisively means one further big dump towards the weekly MA200, currently sitting at around 6k.
BTC might complete the huge triangle since late 2017 by one last move down to the support line which coincides with the weekly MA200.
However, it could also surprise us and just break through 10k after all in the next days or weeks.
Knowing BTC however, it wants to annoy as many people as possible, and a move to 6k would be definitely annoying to many.
After that, the halving will start kicking in, and become more and more noticeable, therefore pressuring the price upwards, even should the worldwide stockmarket continue to crash.
Also, inflation will rise strongly in the next years, which will also continue to fuel this rally. For me, the scenario to revisit 1200 has become more unlikely, though of course not entirely impossible.
A revisit of 6k on the other hand is indeed possible.
Target for BTC remains at least at 100k in the next years.
AMAZON to the MOON?!Good morning traders!
Why do we see a confident breakout to the upside in the AMAZON market? The whole world is bothered by the coronavirus...
Amazon is a very strong player on the Internet and in Europe, it was these companies such as Amazon that made the most profits.
The broken structure below the market acts like a magnet. So we will probably see some retracement and that will be our ENTRY POINT!
It´s time to get ready for the continuation LONG move.
Good trading,
Jakub
FINEIGHT
A textbook reversal? Volume has been steadily decreasing for 9 consistent weeks.
We expect the new Unemployment report on the 5th of June.
I am a complete noob and due to my close to textbook understanding without too much technical analysis I would arguably say that what is happening right now is too easy to spot.
Therefore, a lot of people believe this will crash hard and this is why I believe a technical breakout above 3000 is possible as the last push due to its psychological value to squeeze shorts. If that happens, I don't think it will surpass 3100 and an ATH in the near future should be outright impossible.
If it goes higher just sell it and have your stop loss close to the ATH. I can't even think of a conceptually, riskless trade in this environment. Please correct me if any of this is wrong.
Almost graduating, would be nice for this to play out. If not, well lesson learned. WATCH CONFIRMATION
EURGBP - LONG FOR 440 PIPSEURGBP may be giving us a excellent opportunity for a long trade.
After a big rally, it finally retracted to a support zone and broke out on the start of the week. Now it has came back to retest and broke a trendline on lower time frames. My inputs for this trade will be:
SL: 0.86700
TP 1: 0.88530
TP 2 :0.90365
TP 3: 0.91870
I will be updating the idea as the trade runs, with recomendations on the stop loss positions or early closes.
SPY ShortG9er, Double Top, Rising Wedge, Bear Market Rally, Fib 61.8, Super Guppy Trend...
Enjoy......
Currently in SPY puts for June / Sep
Targeting 264
246
217
180
Possible that we ignore all TA and continue to hold levels regardless of this outlook. Just looking at this as a possible short scenario. Good luck to all
SPY possible turn ??? + 3 REAL trades with explanationHello traders,
I would like to share my Friday trades with you. To avoid watching a long video, I have picked only 3 trades for you.
But don´t worry, I will explain the reasons that led to the opening of trades.
I think it is important that you have an explanation of why the trade is interesting or not.
In the end, we look at the AMEX:SPY market too.
List of markets:
1) NYSE:WRB
2) NASDAQ:TTEK
3) NYSE:GPN
Have good trading,
Jakub / FINEIGHT team
BTC monthly picture: When will the rally start?We can see in the monthly picture that the Bollinger bands are actually not really narrow enough yet.
This means that a big move is still a few months away.
If we look at 2015/16, then BBands were quite a lot narrower in the monthly.
It is therefore likely, that we will see the big moves coming later in 2020, possibly as late as early 2021.
But in which direction? Well, that will depend on macro-economic factors which are currently impossible to foresee.
I am inclined towards the upside should the MA200 hold, because of halving and giant money printing, thus,
rise in inflation of fiat currencies. Longterm, the bullish picture remains intact, as long as BTC doesn't go below 1200 for prolongued periods of time.
Only then should we start being worried.
Retest time?Seems like levels are close to the halfway mark in the Fib retracement. We're looking at a 27% rally from the low. Not sure why the rally has lasted this long and been so strong, it could be from a short squeeze...who knows. It has to end soon I would imagine.
We are heading into earnings with bad news ahead of us plus more bad economic news, so I anticipate the move down is coming soon. I just can't believe the market has completely priced everything in yet. Prove me wrong.
Would Gold continue the unstoppable rally since late of March?The rally of gold had obviously lead by several reasons such as the investor's fearful on the global economy recovery after the covid-19, the unlimited quantitative easing and bail out policy by the FED, the great uncertainty of geopolitical tension among the middle east and China-US, as well as the instability of the "Asia Financial Hub" - Hong Kong since 2019. Investor tends to adopt more risk aversion investment strategies and the precious metal like gold and silver, the traditional safe haven, has been getting more attention since 2019.
Starting from 2020, we are delighted to receive good news by the long lasting trading deal between China and US has been settled by a Phase 1 deal in January. However, the covid-19, as known as the black sweans, had crashed the global market immediately after the deal has been signed. Upon the largest historical slumped of the world's financial market in Feb and March, followed by the quickest recovery in April in responding the largest quantitative easing and bail out policy announced by the FED, possibly to be a $6 trillion package, market make the responses disregarding the real economy impact under the global broader shutdown, which still in effective, and the difficulties of debts repayment by the enterprises. Unemployment rate had rises followed by the historical largest amount of initial unemployment claim for nearly 16 million citizen in US from past 3 weeks. In my point of view, I don't see a quick, sharp V-shape economy recovery as Janet Yellen said, instead Ben Bernanke raise up a depression view which would be possible to align with the current economic conditions, both the Former Federal Reserve Chairman.
Besides the economic view, the liquidity of the financial sectors has been caught more investors attention. Although the FED had announced it's historical largest bail out package, the global shutdown has strongly impacted the countries' trading balance, local unemployment rate and bank liquidity as more enterprises has to be fall by lack of free-cash-flow in operation. Frankly, the Government could not save all of the enterprises during this period, the cases from the credit default among entities will rise significantly start from Q2 which lead to the liquidity problem among the banks and insurer, by a more tighter dividend and buyback policy issue by the EU and UK among it's financial sectors, no doubt that the impact of the covid-19 on global liquidity would last for at least one more quarter from now. Investors should not be enthusiastic on aggressive trading strategies and be caution on recent high volatility market.
Hence, I believe the gold can provide a more stable and risk aversion choice to investors which we can see by the rally of gold prices since 20 March. The rise of gold price from $1450 to $1750 was stunning, the modified pitchfork was being more evidential support for the rally of gold. Furthermore, by observing the previous trading pattern on RSI, gold price faces a short rebounce when RSI reaches 80, this could provide a more uptrend opportunities as currently trading at 60. By breaking through the resist of $1700, followed by a short consolidation break on top of it, next target of gold could possibly be $1860, the 1.618 of previous decline in mid-March.
Looking forward to see gold reaching the price within this month.
gold rushGold seems not to touch the emas anytime soon, offering no "cheap" buy-in opportunity.
However, with phyiscal gold getting rare, it could get sought after soon enough (mines shutting down is also a "plus").
In 2008 bottom, gold rallied after ema touch - but the s&p did aswell.
This year we might not have seen the bottom of the index, yet.
Most interessting for gold is, that I havent seen another asset yet, that didnt went under long term ema, but actually rallied.
The dip could be explained through margin call refinancing and general fear - food is more valuable than money, period.
Im definetelly long on gold and would just use it as inflation proof store for liquidity yet, rather than speculating much with it.
Nonetheless I highly appreciate your opinion on the matter, as Im rather new to gold as an instrument.
Trade save and keep diamond_handz!
USDCAD PFHGood morning traders,
So yesterday, I did post an idea about the usdcad going higher, how ever, I woke up this morning morning and noticed a PFH has been printed.
Which has dramatically changed my bias on the direction.
USDCAD is now a clear short to me, would be looking to enter on a pullback.
As always, keep the risk managed!
Cheers :D