Rally done or just pullback? Maybe bear trap: too soon to short?Caution is in order, this rally has faked us out twice already, looking near pivot, then jumping higher. Bears been expecting a double bottom formation and still are waiting.
On the daily chart Sand P has an Elliott Wave bullish impulse form developing, rather than the ABC many contributors have suggested. The segment labeled (3) is quite a bit longer than the (1). In an ABC countertrend, if these were A & C segments, we'd expect them to be nearly identical in length; these are not, and (3) has both broken above the 0.50 Fibo and exceeded the previous downtrend low price of higher order (1) from October, violating EW principles for an ABC.
If this pans out, we can expect a Fifth rally wave to touch the 0.618 Fibo. Today's price turned back from the TL reaching back to 3 Sep. A lower order TL from Nov suggests a Fifth wave could get to near 2712 price. Any positive news in a market pounded with worrisome tweets will do it. The EOD pivot on 1/22 also implies a bullish undertone.
Market index has closed the gap up from Friday's enthusiastic runup. Was this an exhaustion gap? It may have just a bit left to run, perhaps within 2-3% of the rally top now.
Still too early to short IMHO.
In my other idea on Dow I suggested the TL and Fibo both coincide at price $25040, just a bit over 2% above today's close. Let's see if the bulls can get it up there.
As always, this isn't advice, just another crackpot idea, trade at your own risk; GLTA!
PS I labeled this idea "Neutral" as it is a study of price near a pivot, which may have come, or may still be yet to come soon.
