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Corn - Bottom in place or expected very soonCorn is tracing out a major complex correction in wave B. This correction began way back in late September 2014 and has unfolded as a zig-zag from the 2014 low at 318 to 443 as wave W and has been followed a zig-zag decline in wave X from 443 to a low currently seen at 319. The X-wave could be complete and if this is the case, then a break above short term important resistance at 335 soon will be seen for a long term rally back to at least 443 and likely even higher towards 519. As long as short term important resistance at 335 is able to protect the upside, we must allow for a final decline closer to 310, but it's only a question of time before the low is in place and a new rally begins
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by EWS
XAU/USD Market Analysis and Trading Tips 6th July 2016 Overview: The Gold markets rally during the course of the session on Tuesday to the level of $1370. At this point in time, we strongly believe that market is on its bull rally and ready to go higher. The Gold market sentiment is still positive. The main trend of Gold is bullish on charts and and market is sustaining above the 100 days moving average on its 4 hourly chart. It is having important resistance level at significantly psychological number at the level of $1400 and support level at the level of $1340. On its 4 hourly charts, MACD is sustaining in its positive territory and RSI is sustaining in its buying zone indicating the upcoming bearish trend in the oil prices. On intra day basis one can go for buy on lower level strategy. www.tradingsignalreviews.com
FX:XAUUSDLong
by TheBanker
2
Second Entry for big target!!Hello trader!! So this week I want to share with you a trade opportunity that you might want to keep your eyes on it. Few weeks ago I made 675 pips on the biggest gartley after the brexit candle hit my 61.8 target. That is the best trade ever with very low risk. After the brexit there is a gartley formation complete at 1.09587 which I can't get involve because of market volatility. This week there is another opportunity to get involve in this trade on the completion of small gartley at 1.09858. Warning!!! This is a general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS FIRST!!! Follow your plan and rules. Good luck!!!
Long
by AdliJamalluddin
Ascending triangle short term. Up or down?I believe we're in an upwards facing triangle in the shorter perspective. Although upwards triangles tend to break to the positive side, looking at the daily chart we're also at a big up-spike right now which could increase the chances for a correction downwards. Should the triangle be broken downwards with strong volumes, be cautious since it could be the start of a bigger correction (which would just be a natural part of a healthy price rise). Still, seeing the strong market so far plus the recent news around ethereum, it is not too unlikely to keep going up for another burst. My recommendation if you're willing to take the risk is to buy close to the bottom of this triangle, set a stop loss below it, and keep a close look on the charts. Breakout from this triangle should happen before tuesday, in either direction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Robinerd
1
Apple: Low volatility, volume and price- where are the bulls at?Volume Apple-0.09% Volume continued falling on Tuesday and Wednesday, -5% on each to 20.8m which is 45% below the 1 month average at 38.5m and 50% below the 6 month average at 40m. This is Bullish IMO as it shows that at these prices holders are not willing to sell their AAPL-0.09% risk at these prices, as they seek higher prices before they offer higher supply, hence volume stays low and the stock trades with a bid bias - hence the gap up at the open today - illustrating the supply & demand disequilibrium caused by low supply side liquidity and maintained order demand. However, volume has contracted significantly every day this week, losing over 20% since the week start, providing a promising environment for apple-0.09% growth, but the stock has struggled to hold onoto any gains, with candles often closing in the lower 25% quartiles of their ranges - indicating the stock isnt necessarily looking to push up yet. IMO the stock requires more new buyers, it isnt a selling problem its a demand side issue. With the SPX0.33% rising, it shows liquidity is increasing in risk assets so im not sure why apple-0.09% isnt receiving some of the new liquidity and posting upside gains. Volatility & Apple-0.09% vs VXAP Correlation We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as implied vols dropped yesterday over 1% to 20.90. Apple-0.09% vol0.00% carries the trend with volume , falling every day this week and now sits at lows from June 2015. Also the correlation between APPLE-0.09% and its Implied volatility index continued to maintain deep into negative territory - at 93% falling marginally from 94% yesterday. This reinforces the bullish volatility signal - as historically, a higher negative relationship sets the best environment for Apple-0.09% growth. However, the correlation dips slightly, as PRICE that is starting to fail the relationship - as when correlation falls price SHOULD rise hence the high negative relationship. However, price is trading flat/lower thus the correlation is becoming more positive (lower vols and lower price = positive corr) Evalutaion Both the falling implied vols and volume , all of which in record setting/ bullish areas provide the perfect environment for growth so as per the last 3 days I am bullish on apple-0.09% and STILL expect a $100 break out to 101/2 this week, though the probability falls significantly, but thrusday is usually the best day for gains, with friday being the worst. These indicators make me especially bullish as the lower volume and vols are occuring whilst apple-0.09% trades close to 100USD, where usually, the psychological level causes volume to spike as the uncertainty causes sellers and buyers to flood the market - Which as a result also cause volatility to spike. Given that we havent see this, apple-0.09% should be comfortable with a price hike and is showing strong signs that this is the case. I feel apple-0.09% needs some upside stimulus at these prices and it will cause a cascaded rally from 100 to 1005+ in a short period of time. We just need to get past this 100 level, which keeps growing its strength every day
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
Gold on the rally after perfect pullbackContinuing from the previous analysis, we have seen a pullback for support right on the major rising lower trendline @ ~1200. From there, a rapid inversion of the expectations for a fed rate hike have caused the dollar to fall and have risen the precious metal. There is no guarantee that this will keep going as full scale risk aversion hasn't yet kicked in. Short term possible targets are: 1257.75 and then possibly into a solid resistance at ~ 1272
FX:XAUUSDLong
by LotsOfLore
The story of USDCADOnce upon a time their were a bull and a bear in a forex bar. The bear and the bull got into a fight. at first the bull was wooping the bear ass but the bear came back with hay makers himself. The bull put up a pretty solid fight until the bear got news that if knock down the bull he get free drinks all night. so the bear knocked his butt down. little did the bear know. the bull is bouncing back from the support he heard from a far distance from other bulls.... to be continued.
Long
by airmaxxprince
FINALLY! GOLD COMPLETES THE RISK-OFF *3* - !SHORT EQUITIES!Finally Gold completes the market risk-off 3 for rallying... we not have JPY, BONDS and GOLD all rallying - this completes the set of 3 -riskoff indicators, we are now in full bear mode for stock markets imo.. as you can tell from the US Treasuries and JPY, these riskoff assets have been gaining value for some time, gold has been lagging behind but today following a poor NFP print but STRONG Unemployment print. IMO gold is rallying higher as the probability for a fed hike becomes higher since unemployment is their target measure along with inflation (and not NFP as some will believe). with all 3 riskoff assets rallying this means there CANNOT be enough liquidity in the market to push risk assets (SPX/NAS100/DJ30) to new highs as well - its all but a 0 sum game - the liquidity to push JPY BONDS and GOLD higher MUST have come from risk assets. I believe this will be the end of the modest bull run for equities #downwego probably starting next week. A movement lower in equities at his point is well served - we have many high risk events coming up and i believe people will be getting out of risk and into safety starting next week given 1: fed on the 16th 2. brexit on the 23rd and also BOJ on the 16th (along with a slew of other Central banks also due to declare their monetary policy). Given the above uncertainties/ Risks NOW seems a perfect time for investors to flee to safety and for the SPX to follow suit 5-10% lower in the coming weeks. As per my previous articles this answers all of the questions, we now have enough uncertainty momentum to push gold UP and stocks down IMO.. the paradoxical bonds/jpy AND stocks higher will come to an end in the coming days with STOCKS selling off for at least 4 weeks. PLease see the attached articles for more information.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
Another unsustainable rally based on commoditiesFollowing the recent oil rally, the Russian equity index has also rallied about 30%. However, this - like the oil rally and the Petrobras rally I posted about - is unsustainable. See my post attached here for why the oil rally is unsustainable. Why is RTS unsustainable? Firstly, it is likely to follow oil's possible move down. Secondly, Russia is still in quite a severe recession. Thirdly, Russia's economy is forecast to contract 1.5% this year. As long as the outlook for oil looks poor (as it does in my opinion), then the Russian equity index shouldn't be making rallies of 30%. Technicals The market has hit a strong level of resistance, as indicated by the upper horizontal black line.
INDEX:RTSIShort
by olly_price
1
Short Petrobras based on an unsustainable rallyFundamentals Petrobras has seen an 80% rally through March, which is unsustainable. The reason for this is because the rally is based on the possible [ impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff, whose policies adversely affected the Brazilian oil market. While this is good news for the Brazilian oil company, the fundamentals of the company simply do not fit with such a rally. It still has the largest debt level in the entire oil industry at about £75 billion; it will continue to have legal costs incurred from a corruption scandal; oil prices are still too low to be strongly profitable, and in my opinion will move lower to about $30, which will further fuel this rally to be pared. Technicals The stock price has hit a very strong level of resistance in the 4.50 and 4.75 price range, as indicated by the horizontal black lines, and is likely to rebound off this. There has also been very strong bearish divergence on the RSI, which is all indicated by the thin black arrows.
NYSE:PBR.AShort
by olly_price
Looking for signal to short this bloody equity rally?I have a solution. Use the moving average 50 period low. Check the 4h chart on US30. Insert a 50 period moving average low. Insert support and resistance lines. You will notice a couple of things, at the end of the last equity rally, it was profitable to short the market EVERY TIME once the price CLOSED below the 50MA. In other words you couldn't go wrong using this signal. In the current rally, the MA50 has acted as a support EVERY TIME (along with upward trend). A close below this line will be a good time to sell based in historical patterns. A close below the upward trending black support as well will confirm selling signal. We are approaching historical resistance and I'm expecting the price to fall below the MA50 soon - probably this week. The rally has taken many scalps. Don't be cannon fodder. Trade wisely. There are many fundamental reasons why this rally should end, I feel that this rally is purely technical.
FX:US30Short
by maccabean
2