Trade Alerts: SA Rates and BoC Decision South African Inflation South Africa is expected to maintain its key interest rates at 8.25% and 27.25% on Thursday, citing persistent inflationary pressures. Central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago has emphasized that rate reductions are unlikely until inflation sustainably returns to the 4.5% midpoint of the target...
NewGold ETF which tracks the rand price of Gold has been knocking hard on the R360.00 level. A breakout of this level should see an explosive move upwards which possibly supports the longs i am seeing in DRD and AngloGold. The break of the flat top triangle targets R386 which is an approximate move of 7% in the rand price of gold.. Good, especially for our local...
Based on the chart, Im seeing nothing else but a sell from here. Weekly has a crazy divergence between the price and the RSI. A Top was created in February 2016. Range 19 to 20 rands is a liquidity area. from here if price does not break above 20 rands, then expect more price drops from here. Based on my TA, from November 2023 till 22 January 2024 we were in a...
remember my previous rand idea, this is what it is based on. Daily timeframe we sold around 19 rands, because we had just completed a correction cycle Y which is a top when looking on the weekly timeframe. From 19.80 rands we have been in a sideways correction, so for the correction cycle to be complete, we need to break below 17.60 and break above it again,...
Based on the previous idea this is what i was referring to. check the related ideas section.
We might see R20 a dollar before continuation down to 13 etc, but if not the case then from where the price currently is then we might continue dropping. Shared an Idea on Monthly, and this is how Weekly looks.
USDZAR some interesting developments for the Rand bulls. 50dma < 200dma (death cross). 3 lower highs forming what could be a potential flat bottom triangle with the base at 18.10-18.20. Some bullish characteristics here which could be shifting sentiment in favour of the bulls but it's still too early too call. Range bound between 18.95 and 18.20 now. A convincing...
USDZAR saw a bearish reversal off the important 18.75 level which was strong support previously. Should we trade below friday's low at 18.61, i suspect we will see a re-test of 18.43. However if no follow through of the reversal occurs and price manages to gain traction above 18.75 i would then expect the 18.90 level to come into play where we find the 50dma and...
Still looks like the play here is to buy rands between 19.20 - 19.30. Buying back short positions on USDZAR pair at 18.80 and then 18.40-18.50 which is the low of the range
Inv H&S has formed on the USD/ZAR since 6 June 2023. The price has recently broken above the neckine, showing the US dollar is poised for upside. The DIXIE (US Dollar Index) is also showing upside to come. 7>21>200 and confirms the US dollar is going up. RSI>50 - Bullish First target is R21.00 ABOUT THE DIXIE: HOW IT’S CALCULATED The USDX is...
Rev C&H has formed on the USD/ZAR. If we get a slight retracement back it could be forming a Right shoulder to an Inv H&S. Regardless, this looks bearish for the ZAR and bullish for the USD. Other indicators are showing upside to come for the greenback. 7>21>200 RSI>50 Target 1 will be R21.72. Ouch for the rand. The government and load shedding is really...
Cup and Handle has formed over the last few months with EUR/ZAR. We got a break down below R19.65. Now it looks like there is further downside to come for the EUR which is good for the rand. 21>7 Price >200 RSI<50 Target R17.32 The big warning technically is that the EUR/ZAR is flirting with the 200MA. Until the price breaks down, then I'll feel more...
Right off the bat, I normally get short analyses wrong with USD/ZAR. But the system is the system, so I have to keep to the rules. Since the trade hit my first target at R18.90, it's been forming an Inverse Cup and Handle. Now the price has broken below, which means the USD is likely to weaken from here. The indicators however are conflicted. 7>21 (about to...
A short Idea for usd/zar following the 2 week downtrend
Back in January I predicted that the USDZAR pair will climb to the 2020 high of 19.35 if the rand fails to hold the pair below the critical support rate of 16.80. We’ve seen this move play out, and then some, which saw the rand slide to an all-time low of 19.90 this week as the pair completed its 5th major impulse wave. Now it’s time to look at what lies ahead for...
The rand has now posted convincing gains in the past three sessions off the back of an increase in global investor risk appetite following a strong US NFP’s print on Friday and the conclusion of the US debt ceiling debacle. An ABC corrective pattern seems to be the most likely move for the pair at the moment as per my previous idea linked below. The rand has...
Background (a quick look back): The rand's covid recovery, on the back of the Fed’s QE infinity policy and a strong commodities rally, ended in June 2021 after the rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 13.40. The rand got hit by a quick one-two in the middle of 2021 as the DXY found support around 90.00 and the local riots in July which saw the local unit...
The charts never lie! I posted this trade alert in October 2022 with the massive Falling Wedge on the Weekly. It broke above the R20.35 and it showed the next strong resistance at R25.00. target will be R25.00. I called it a long term analysis but changing it to a MEDIUM term analysis because of how quickly it's accelerated. I guess we can only wait for the...