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How to find THE BEST SHORT entry in a Range bounding market !!!!Welcome to this tutorial This is my personal take from multiple resources and +20 hours of research and my own experience with trading in a range-bound market. Range-bound trading or in this case shorting in a range-bound market contains 5 simple phases: phase A Range High + Range low forms which lead us to have a Range market. phase B Price tends to deviate above the Range High or simply sweep (upthrust) above it. Reasoning and psychology behind that= in order to catch the liquidity above the range high and trap breakout traders who just opened a long above the high before nuking to the Range Low. phase C BOS happens in ltf , triggering a trend reversal. Supply forms below the resistance, that's where we would like to build our short position later on. phase D ltf Range forms after the first sell-off, creating our base to revisit the supply that previously formed above it. (Ideally, you can enter a scalp long trade in this phase and close right at the supply) phase E Price finally revisit the supply in order to test it as resistance. Any bearish price action at the supply or ltf BOS triggers our entry, targetting the Range Low as our take profit point. There you can have a nice +4 R/R short setup, remember to place your invalidation above the newly made local high just to be safe from stop hunters ;) Make sure to leave a like and a comment if you find this small article useful I will share 2 more topics about range bound market and how to trade it in near future so follow me on Tradingview so you don't miss them xoxo
Education
by CryptoSep
9
BTC: Surviving the Chop! / Visual MapMorning/Evening all! BTC has entered a very choppy range, which means the price moves in a tight range bouncing between many levels chopping positions of all market participants, shorts and longs alike. In this picture I have marked and mapped the choppy areas as well as the zones that should be considered Resistance and Support. There are two ways to use this chart depending on what you are looking for: A) SWING TRADING THE TREND If you have entries in the green (support) zone and you want to catch bigger moves then hold your positions until price goes into the red (resistance zone). If this happens pay attention to momentum. If the momentum is strong you might want to keep your positions and let the price pump higher (which means you will be looking at taking profit around 25-28k area). Ignore the chop zone completely. It's there to make you let go of your positions, lose money or both. B) SCALPING If you are interested in scalping every move then the orange (chop) zone is your bread and butter. You try to get entries at the lowest parts of this range and take profit at the highest parts of this range. Taking smaller scalps for example from the mid of that range (~20.8) to the top of the range still works but your R/R is much different. Proceed with caution. Have very tight stop losses. Look for any signs that might show you that we're about to break out of the chop zone and protect yourself if you are in an opposite trade. Last but not least: -- All lines should be considered approximates. This means you have to check for previous candle bodies near these lines to find the exact "mini-range" that each line belongs to. -- Blue/Red boxes (frames) are put/ask areas. They are areas where price previously found either mostly sellers or mostly buyers, therefore, the volume profile has a gap too (possible support/resistance areas) It's highly likely that we will enter an "Inside Week" structure which means I wouldn't be surprised if these ranges play out for a couple of more weeks. So, what's an "Inside Week" anyway? I will make another post about it and explain in detail. Stay tuned!!
FTX:BTCUSD
by Athantonios
2
The range we are in. Failed H&S into W. Possible range Break-outHello again! Here's the whole clear picture so far: - We were in a bigger range (20k - 22.5k) - As soon as we lost 20k (bottom of that range) we broke down to 17600 (which is the daily low of 11th December 2020 - the last red day we printed before the beginning of the new bull market. Those numbers are not random. More on that in another post!!) - After breaking down we managed to reclaim the bottom of the range and we've been ranging between 20k and 21.6k with the mid of the range being 20.8k - In fact, 20.8k (the mid of the range) has worked as a pivot point - It first helped the price form a Head & Shoulders pattern, leading everyone into thinking that we will go much lower once we lose 20k (look at green pattern) - However, H&S patterns usually do fake breakdowns just to stop all the longs and trap shorts. Then they reverse. - In fact, H&S breakdown was reclaimed and on top of that we immediately converted the structure into a W bottoming pattern (look at pink pattern) - 21.6k is the "moment of truth" point. Should the price breaks above I can see us teleporting to 22.5k with the power of millions of short squeezes. - 20.8 is a very important price level. It worked as a pivot point and it will show us if we are truly going to break out of this range (20-21.6) and move towards 20.5k or we are going back to 20k, potentially even lower. In other words, 20.8k is your invalidation point. Now look at the daily candle. My guess is that the new day open (25th June) is going to print its lower wick into the 20.8k before we really try to break 21.6k Entry 20.8k. Tight stop loss below this. TP either 21.6k or 22.5k If we lose 20.8 you can short to 20k (or just open long 20.8k and hedge with short at 21.6) Good luck!
FTX:BTCUSDLong
by Athantonios
3
GBPNZD 63 day trendSince April 13th, we have seen the GBPNZD trade between a range of 1.920 and 1.960. Quarterly trends: It's been 504- days (8 quarters) since the price has moved above this price briefly, creating a wick on larger time frames. There have been 13 instances in the past 53 days where the stock price has been at or above the 252-day average price (4 quarters), which represents a 0.245% portion of time. It is evident from the 189- days (3 quarters) that the price is stagnant and there is a possibility of a one-day reversal. Vix Fix: Vix fix suggests that price contraction into smaller volatility channels is continuing. This could be interpreted as bullish for the GBPNZD, even though the 2022 season looks bearish overall. What this means for traders is that we should look for opportunities to sell at high points, and be alert for sharp reversals around 1.920. The 63-day EMA on the VIX Fix indicates that the sell-offs are becoming less severe as we move into the second quarter of the year. This can be seen as a result of the weak uptrend we have been observing. The next 63 days The 63-day outlook shows a low of 1.903 and a high of 1.980. I am looking for a break of the April 13th range and ultimately a short trade. However, this will not be confirmed until the price breaks and confirms below 1.903.
by RobinhoodFX