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Ranges

RSI: A simple method to trade trends and rangesI write this tiny article to share the basics or my use of ths RSI indicator, coupled to supports and resistances levels, as well as trend lines (or any indicator you want to use as SUP/RES (moving averages, vwap ...)) This use implies a bit of practice in spotting divergences, but let's be honest, many of them appear on previous supports or resistances, just look at these levels and you can be sure you'll find them if a reversal is about to occur.) The second specificity is the use of a moving average applied to the RSI (in my exmaple, a 50 periods EMA) I developped my own RSI+MovingAverage script, but I'm sure you can find similar scripts that have already been shared within the community, thats why I don't publish it for now. Anyway, feel free to ask if you're interested in my script, it's obviously free. Lets consider two different contexts: Trends (Bullish/Bearish) Ranges In trends , there are two things to take into consideration. Let's explain what we need to work on a bullish trend: - If the price is on an interesting level (moving average, trend line, support), you can try to long upon the RSI crosses its moving average, indicating the potential end of the current retracement (even better if a bullish divergence appears close to this price) - If the price gets close to a resistance, and moreover if a bearish divergence appears on the RSI, you can consider it as a good exit price, or wait for the next retracement in order to pyramide your trade (depending on your approach). In a bearish trend, you obviously need to do the exact opposite, wait for retracements (flags or other), and find bearish divergences OR sell when the RSI is clearly crossing down its moving average. Of course you can wait for the RSI crossing above/under its moving average to get another confirmation that the movement is starting. You can see a few examples on the following screen In ranges , it's even simpler. Once you found your support and resistance levels (it can be old levels that have already generated good reactions) all you need is to spot bearish divergences on the resistance, and bullish divergence on the support. I personally like to cut at least a part of my position when we reach 50% of the range, which can be often considered as a support/resistance. It's totally up to you to exit on this point or not, depending on your preferences (simple scalping, anticipations of a range breakout to make a new trend, lower timeframe trend following, etc...) Range example: Additional notes When you trade a divergence, try to always open your position when the RSI rebounds on the divergence line, and not after, remember that opportunities are everywhere, don't mind if you missed the last one, don't enter too late in a movement. Even if a range is a global horizontal movement, it's still composed of alternations of bullish and bearish movements between the same supports and resistances, therefore, you're of course able to trade it as trends on lower timeframes Don't forget to look at candles, which can also give you strong signals on important levels, on current or lower/higher timeframes. The price is always the key Of course, think about the DOW theory.
Education
by noop-noop
2
Range trading: Forex as for 08/11/2021 Calculations of the fluctuations range for the present day are published in this section. That is, at the very beginning of the day, you can determine the maximum and minimum of this day (with a known probability). What does this information give? In fact, a lot. But first of all, these are guidelines for trade. For example, if during the day the price approaches the upper (lower) mark, you know that it won’t go above (below) this mark with a particular probability today. Accordingly, you can open a position opposite to the current movement, knowing in advance what the probability is to be profitable. EURUSD Long position 1 (The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.1511 Long position 2 (The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability 95%) 1.1481 Long position 3 (The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability 99%) 1.1451 Short position 1 (The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.1612 Short position 2 (The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.1642 Short position 3 (The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.1672 GBPUSD Long position 1 (The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.3406 Long position 2 (The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability 95%) 1.3366 Long position 3 (The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability 99%) 1.3325 Short position 1 (The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.3560 Short position 2 (The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.3600 Short position 3 (The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.3641 USDJPY Long position 1 (The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 113.04 Long position 2 (The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability 95%) 112.90 Long position 3 (The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability 99%) 112.76 Short position 1 (The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 113.95 Short position 2 (The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 114.08 Short position 3 (The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 114.22 Calculations are based on the historical data and history doesn’t necessarily repeat this particular day. About mentioned probabilities are not 100% and do not guarantee risk-free trading
by Trade24Fx
1
DXY November IPDAHello Traders! October is coming to an end and we are starting a new trading month November. Here I looked back 20, 40, 60 days to seek the open float and important areas where banks may have buy or sell stops. I have labeled most PD array that I could see on the daily time frame. There are many more but I want to keep the chart clean. If price does make a certain move towards the PD array I will annotate it. As of right now seasonally we know Dollar index is bullish in November. This allow does not mean the DXY should displace higher.
TVC:DXY
by ForensicForex
Eu Price action analysis coming into the London session Good Morning traders! Hope you are well. Todays forecast will be done on the 1hr timeframe to give more information. We are still in a over uptrend/buying range, with liquidity built above current PA. Over the past week price has retraced down and is now within the discount of the buy range, this offers great opportunity to go long. As always we look left for a range to mitigate. We can see one very obvious range this is marked in green-and its best seen on the 5minute TF. I will be looking for a sweep of the Asian lows and a trend change on the lower TF before entering long but price is shaping up nicely. One thing to note is that NFP is coming up so I will be more cautious getting closer to that time.
Long
by EnvisionEJ
When Doge Peaks; It crashes: And takes the Crypto market with itBack in 2019 I posted a chart on the Doge/BTC pair pointing out that the Doge to BTC ratio was a lifetime historical support and that it would likely pump to atleast the top of the range so long as our support wasn't broken and so long as we could break a midterm downtrend pivoting from support : Today i must say i'm quite happy with the result but now it's looking like the party is over and one thing i have realized overtime is that when Doge pumps to the top of the range it typically just goes right back down to the bottom and has often been an early indicator of an overall shift in the crypto market cycle. We may see crypto enter a Mid to long term bear market very soon. However, if in this bear market Doge can pivot and make a higher low this time around perhaps at the newly created 200 week Moving average then we may see Doge pump back to the top of the range and actually break above the resistance convincingly next time around.
Short
by RizeSenpai
3
NZDUSD - Short term correction seems likelyIt seems like we might get a short term correction on NZDUSD There is high odds for a correction if we get a close below the daily support trendline around 0.71115 (20.01.21). It might make sense to go short on a retest on the weekly resistance around 0.71550. it looks like we have a bigger player building a short position and might be ready to finish up before he starts to move the market. We could get as low as 0.68165 in one to two weeks time... So it might make sense to go short on a retest on the new weekly resistance around 0.71550.
Short
by SVENSSON_DK
There are two possibilities on GBP/AUD with short-term...Sterling is still displaying a degree of resilience on BoE rate recalibration grounds due to Governor Bailey’s NIRP push-back yesterday, but also on a slightly more positive note from UK PM Johnson who claims to see signs that national lockdown is stemming the pandemic spread. Cable has rejected 1.3700 again, but bounced from sub-1.3650 lows after a temporary breach of a Fib retracement level (23.6% of the move from 1.3450 to 1.3701 at 1.3642) and Eur/Gbp is filling what looks like pre-fix RHS orders just above 0.8900 after failing to extend the downside through the round number. Aussie under 0.7750 pre-NZ building consents and retail sales by card payment, plus Chinese trade data, with little lasting support for Nzd/Usd from ANZ retracting its forecast for the RBNZ to adopt NIRP. There are two possibilities on GBP/AUD with short-term upside favoured.
by FTUKcom
4
INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL RANGE LIQUIDITYwhen the market makes a new impulse and pulls back it is said to be operating in a range. within the range we observe internal liquidity formed within the range and external liquidity resting on the tips/swing points of the impulse. as the tape winds the market prefers to make attempts on internal liquidity followed by external liquidity or vice versa and the interchanging pattern continues throughout KEY TAKEAWAY: Always observe and record the current market range and internal and external liquidity areas
OANDA:XAUUSD
by qnafx
1
Bitcoin "boiling" to make another leg up!?Hey traders!! Couple days ago I posted my idea of bitcoin re-testing $8600-8400 zone before heading towards 12k. I'm changing my mind for the time being.. I'll share bunch of thoughts that are going through my mind right now.. What if market wants "orange box shorts" to suffer and liquidate more people? What if we are going after traders who opened shorts in 11-12k region and didn't close their positions expecting for $6000? Do you think it's a coinsidence that we didn't fill that gap at 8700-8800$ on cme futures? What do you think about cme futures gap at 11800$? :) Do you know that counter-trend price action is RAPID so that most of the people could be taken by surprise?? ((Look how long it took us to get from 10k to 7.5k and vice versa.. ) I can go on and on, you get the idea.. Right now I'm looking to open longs in @$9000-$9250 region with TP @$11900-$12100 Sell loss could be placed below $8940. Do not over-leverage!.. Expect high volatility. Keep in mind.. If we're to jump towards that level soon, it will be very rapid price action.. This is not a financial advise.. Let me know what you think! Have a great weekend ahead! :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Patrikas10
How much of their money can europeans lose in a single day?Disclaimer: For new people, or just the dumb people (I heard there were alot of those in crypto), these are AVERAGE TRUE RANGE numbers. Those numbers do not represent the most or even average you can lose in a day but the trading range in an average day. Days can vary widely... Just look at the NatGas chart, or Bitcoin that has some days in a 2.5% range and then days where the price goes up or down (organically) 20% in 3 hours. The most: Natural Gaz ==> 4% ATR * 10 leverage = 40% a day. NatGas that regularly soars massively and wipes out funds, gaps insanely very regularly, is the one with the most risk allowed. Regulators <3 The least (outside of absolute troll FX minors and probably some mysterious stocks): 10 Year T-Note ==> 0.50% ATR * 5 leverage (30 with FCA) = 2,5% a day. What about FX majors? EURUSD ==> 0.75% ATR * 30 leverage = 22,5% a day. USDJPY ==> 0.75% ATR * 30 leverage = 22,5% a day. GBPUSD ==> 0.85% ATR * 30 leverage = 25,5% a day. EURCHF ==> 0.50% ATR * 30 leverage = 15,0% a day. (probably smallest) GBPJPY ==> 1.00% ATR * 30 leverage = 30,0% a day. (probably largest) What about FX "minors"? AUDUSD ==> 1.00% ATR * 20 leverage = 20% a day. USDZAR ==> 1.50% ATR * 20 leverage = 30% a day. The biggest one I think. USDHKD ==> 0.05% ATR * 20 leverage = 01% a day. ... USDCNH ==> 0.40% ATR * 20 leverage = 08% a day. Smallest one that is not a complete joke. My interest for this collpased with the new restrictions... What about agri? Biggest "major" one is Coffee ==> 3.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 30% a day. Smallest "major" one is Soybean ==> 1.60% ATR * 10 leverage = 16% a day. What about stocks? I cannot check 50,000 tickers, but the typical big ones have ATR around 2%, with the vast majority of > 1B cap between 1 and 3 % a day, so with 5 leverage ==> Typical is 10%, and range is 5-15%. What about my big 3 commodities (Gold Oil Copper)? Gold ==> 1.25% ATR * 20 leverage = 25% a day. Oil ==> 3.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 30% a day. HGC ==> 2.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 20% a day. What about crypto? Bitcoin ==> 5.50% ATR * 2 leverage = 11% a day. With BTC the biggest less risky one you have access to the less risk. Pure regulator logic here. ETHUSD ==> 11.5% ATR * 2 leverage = 23% a day. XRPUSD ==> 13.0% ATR * 2 leverage = 26%. EOSUSD ==> 10.5% ATR * 2 leverage = 21%. Excrement On Shareholders moves less than this bigger ones, does this mean it is more stable and secure? TRXUSD ==> 20.0% ATR * 2 leverage = 40%. I haven't access to this but I checked etoro which I know is a broker very geared towards morons, and surprise suprise TRX is here... So you have the poopiest of cryptos (well in the top 25) fighting for first place with NatGas with leverage adjusted ATR of 40% a day...
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by MrRenev
TESLA long term rangesTesla is considered to be a volatile stock and it's showing just that when it gets the chance. Even so, it does tend to range and respect certain levels; rallying impressively but falling hard as well. The latest decline started near the area of the all-time highs around $380-$390, peak levels that were visited 4 times during the last 2 years. This time, the priced went as low as $231, that is a massive drop of $148 which is nothing new for this asset. At a first glance, the strong support line and bottom part off the latest range of $250 seems to have been broken. Taking into account that the company had their Q1 earnings report released recently so it might be worth waiting a couple of days before we get a confirmation of a real $250 break. The asset is definitely under pressure as it reported a loss of $702 million in Q1 but we could see a strong rebound above $250 in the next couple of weeks. Additionally, it could be noted that the bad Q1 report was in a way priced in as it was no secret that Tesla struggled with deliveries and would also report a loss. Regardless, the spike to $231 happened and here we are now just above it. Based on all this information, as well as the patterns of rallies/declines and general price behavior within these ranges we could be looking at a slow but steady attempt for another $100 rally which could take the price closer to $300-$320 again. That level was kind of the base for Tesla in the last 2 years and was broken only temporarily for a few weeks or so last year in April and October.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by InvestmentPros