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Rangetrading

Deviation? what deviation?!I saw a lot of short setups today and their reason was that $BTC deviated from the range high. Hmm, no it hasn't! and in fact, the market structure in the high time frame hasn't shifted yet. BUT, it is true that this is the last place for Bitcoin to defend before entering the bear territory! Let me break it down for you: This is what we are dealing with above the range high. I like how the mid-range is aligned with the weekly open! that's the first short I would take if we sweep that level and reject immediately. The deviation is valid only if we break and close below the dotted line! after that, you are welcome to short $BTC to the ground. the logical target for this scenario is the range low. But again, for now we have no confirmation of a trend reversal. stay safe and try not to trade on Monday! make sure to hit the boost button so more people find this post xoxo
by CryptoSep
An Idiot's Guide to EURUSD: 5 Steps to Success 💲💲💲Synopsis If you trade Forex then you know the weekends are the best time to analyse the market. Everybody likes to talk about how volatile EURUSD is, but what they don't tell you is that the market is ranging a good 80%-90% of the time; good deals do NOT last long. In fact, half of a days price movement can play out in 15-45 minutes, It's that fast. The best entries are usually snatched up in a matter of minutes, meaning that slow momentum oscillators and lagging trend following indicators don't perform well in these conditions. EURUSD in my opinion trades a lot like CL (crude WTI), where trading decisions need to be made while volatility is low to mitigate risk. Translation: if you can't win in a range, you're going to blow your account in this market, trust me. I see so many people on here setting targets 2-3 times the daily atr with the expectation that they'll be paid by the end of the day or the next day. Don't do that, please. It's not a sprint, it's a marathon. Long term gains depend on practical consistent returns, not 10:1 RRs. It's actually a lot more realistic to take ZERO to two 20-40 pip trades per day. Over the course of a week it adds up. The chart: This week we came off of a really strong bullish surge away from parity, and the market then did what it does best, range. And the way that prices are moving right now is just classic EURUSD, I love it...I get so nostalgic, because ranges like these are how I learned to trade; the way that the market recycles over and over makes it so fun to trade, it never gets stale. Since it's the weekend and the markets are closed, I wanted to take this opportunity to share with anyone who might be wondering what it's like to day trade this market. How to trade ranges: Step 1: Find your levels... The easiest way is to map out support and resistance zones. On the chart, I use my own variation of the Williams fractals indicator (I call them Neo fractals 😎) for every prominent swing high or swing low, the indicator draws a horizontal ray from the highest, lowest close and projects it out into the future. You can see the spots where lines start stacking up in a certain price range act as stronger support or resistance than the areas with only one dotted line. It only takes about 5-10 minutes per day to do this by hand though, so an indicator definitely isn't necessary. It's really important to be able to eyeball pivot points yourself anyways. Step 2: Determine market phase... After you've mapped everything out, it becomes a lot clearer what's happening in the market, and if the market is ranging or trending. If the market's ranging, you will see far more s/r lines on your chart especially once you start seeing s/r lines stacking up close to one another. A clear giveaway that the market is ranging is when price makes strong moves in one direction, only to return back from where it came, later in the day. Once you've determined what phase of the market you're even closer to spotting high quality trades. Step 3: The next step is to find areas of value... In general you want to find the areas within the range which provide the most exclusive prices, And steer away from price ranges that hold 80-90% of the activity on the cart. Being 5-10 pips in profit before a big move will completely change the way you feel about a trade when it starts to go against you (plenty winning trades will go against you, especially if you're trading reversals). On the chart you can see that the supply and demand zones only produced 2-4 trades this week, but all of them were for over 50 pips. These aren't the only trades you can take, but they're definitely the highest RR trades, you can get in a ranging market. Step 4: What for confirmation... There are so many ways to confirm a move, but my favorite for this market is a phenomena that I like to call a spike. (There's probably an actual name for it, but I'm self taught so I just make stuff up as I go 😅) Find a hammer or star candle on a higher chart like the daily or 4hr and it look at that time period again on a lower timeframe, what you'll see is that the hammer or star is actually just a large price movement in one direction followed by an equally large movement in the other direction. What might appear as a spike on a lower timeframe will appear as a hammer or star on a higher time frame, and the larger and longer the chart pattern takes to complete, the larger and longer the move will be in the opposite direction. These are the Rolls Royce of signals. When you realize that a head and shoulders pattern is really just a series of spikes, it will completely change the way that you trade. In my experience, trading price spikes alone out performs every other chart pattern there is, because most candlestick and chart patterns are made up of a series of spikes anyways. Most consolidation periods end in a large spike followed by a 1-200 pip surge in the opposite direction. They appear most often on higher timeframes as hammers and stars, or large engulfment. but on the lower time frames you can watch these things play out over 5 ,10 or even 100 periods sometimes. The key is to have very strict rules for what you consider a spike to be, how many pips? What kind of ratio are you looking for? is it happening in an area of value? etc. Step 5: The range leads to the trend... The reason that trend following strategies under perform in this market is because strong trends don't last long on EU AND getting good value is insanely competitive. The key is to spot these trends early, you have to be looking when nobody else is looking. That means waking up earlier than everyone else and having a plan in place before the move happens...Not seeing a big candle and just hopping in. I try to have a daily strategy in place before the Asian session ends, that way, I''m ready for London and NY. I live in the US, so that means I'm waking up everyday around midnight to 1 in the morning. But most of the time, if my trade starts well, I go back to bed and check back in around 7. If you want to trade EURUSD, that's what it takes though. There might have to be lifestyle changes that you have to make (especially for North and South American traders) in order to really commit yourself to this market and give your trading it the attention that it needs.
Education
by NeoDaNomad
🔃✅💲Short term reversal for $ETH confirmed! #Ethereum 🚀🔜✅This chart is meant to show the confirmation of the reversal in the $ETH price. This is shown on the BYBIT:ETHUSDT chart, because of the higher (more speculation based) trading volume. It is currently showing strong confidence in traders for #Ethereum. As shown, during the downtrend that $ETH has been in, there were multiple closes below the lower Bollinger band. These each signaled further $ETH price suppression at the time. After finding a possible bottom, then ranging sideways in what is now the current range of support, $ETH price finally broke out above the top of the range. This is very likely due to a short squeeze, however I believe that it being in conjunction with the recent bounce in $BTC and other cryptos, has allowed for confidence to be restored in $ETH price growth(at least for the short-term). Breaking above the range, with very tightened Bollinger bands, $ETH price managed to close above the upper Bollinger band multiple times. This is the first time this has happened on the daily chart since we had one (very brief) close above it, in October last year. To me this signals a (possibly very strong) reversal for #Etherem. Going forward, I would personally expect a move up to the current strong resistance level around $2,100-$2,200, then a retest of the previous range-high/resistance, flipped to support. After that would be when I would assess everything to see if this confirmation truly has the merit that I personally believe it has. Any strong close above $2,500 would be a very strong confirmation of this theory, and a close below $1,100 would possibly invalidate this whole theory. **This is all my opinion, based on chart data. This is not financial advice.**
Long
by DoozerInvest
Market Range - What are they trying to tell us?When the market range, it is telling us they are lost with the main direction. And we are seeing that between all the US major stock indices and many stocks since the second week of May. Prices basically still trading around the same price since then. In today’s tutorial, we will discuss: • How to identify when market started to enter into a range and • Which direction will it ultimately break away from a range market? The concept of “Less is More” When we trade into a contract that is within our means, we will be able to focus on trade set-up that is so helpful for entry, stop loss and profit taking than trying to manage our emotions as we have over traded. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by konhow
SOL/USDT : Short-term bullish signsBINANCE:SOLUSDT BYBIT:SOLUSDT Hello everyone 😃 Before we start to discuss, I'll be so glad if you share your opinion on this post's comment section and hit the like button if you enjoyed it! $SOL has formed a short-term range bound and it's very possible to have a breakout above it. But there're two things to look for before getting into any Long on $SOL. - The higher S/R zone. - The higher S/R line. Despite the bullish bias on market from day-trading sight, It's better to wait for a hold above $38... With any confirmation above $38, You can enter Long with a final target of $43. Invalidation after taking a Long position should be a dive below the marked S/R zone! Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support us with your likes and comments! Attention: this isn't financial advice we are just trying to help people with their vision. Have a good day! @Helical_Trades
Long
by Helical_Trades
6
How to find THE BEST SHORT entry in a Range bounding market !!!!Welcome to this tutorial This is my personal take from multiple resources and +20 hours of research and my own experience with trading in a range-bound market. Range-bound trading or in this case shorting in a range-bound market contains 5 simple phases: phase A Range High + Range low forms which lead us to have a Range market. phase B Price tends to deviate above the Range High or simply sweep (upthrust) above it. Reasoning and psychology behind that= in order to catch the liquidity above the range high and trap breakout traders who just opened a long above the high before nuking to the Range Low. phase C BOS happens in ltf , triggering a trend reversal. Supply forms below the resistance, that's where we would like to build our short position later on. phase D ltf Range forms after the first sell-off, creating our base to revisit the supply that previously formed above it. (Ideally, you can enter a scalp long trade in this phase and close right at the supply) phase E Price finally revisit the supply in order to test it as resistance. Any bearish price action at the supply or ltf BOS triggers our entry, targetting the Range Low as our take profit point. There you can have a nice +4 R/R short setup, remember to place your invalidation above the newly made local high just to be safe from stop hunters ;) Make sure to leave a like and a comment if you find this small article useful I will share 2 more topics about range bound market and how to trade it in near future so follow me on Tradingview so you don't miss them xoxo
Education
by CryptoSep
9
SPX: Still doing some RANGE TRADING!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today! In the 1h chart, the index is still inside a range between 4,168 and 4,073, the 21 ema is flat, and its movements have been erratic in the short-term. This is just a consequence of this congestion, and it must either lose the 4,073 to reverse the trend, or break the 4,168 in order to resume the bullish bias. Meanwhile, any correction that brings the index close to the 4,073 is an opportunity to buy, while every time it gets closer to the 4,168 could be an opportunity to sell. In the daily chart, we still see the Double Bottom chart pattern, triggered when the index broke the 4,090 (red line), while we are trading above the 21 ema (which is ascending). In addition, it seems we have a Flag chart pattern in process right now. Since we are trading above its support levels, and we see some good bullish structures, the bias is bullish, unless we lose the 4,090/21 ema. Either way, opportunities to buy have a higher risk/reward at the moment, considering that our target is 4,500. The only thing missing is a good reaction with high volume. So far, the volume has been too low, and the longer it takes to break the 4,168, higher are the chances of a bearish reversal. Let’s keep our eyes open, and watch the key points for now. I’ll keep you guys updated every day on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses.
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
4
BABA: Bottom's in, now what?The bottom formation is confirmed with rising Accumulation/Distribution and a nice, controlled base at the low. This is evidence of a Dark Pool Buy Zone, aka accumulation zone, where bargain hunting has occurred. But a bottom formation is a sideways pattern first, before it becomes a sustained uptrend. Resistance overhead is strong, so swing traders should be planning their exit strategies at this time, to get out soon profitably if you took the trade as it moved out of the base. Position traders will have stronger entries with lower risk when bottoms breakout to "complete." We have a market that is range-bound for most stocks, most of the time, which can be a difficult market for KEEPING profits. Bottoms provide some of the most lucrative trades, but it's important to follow a set of rules according to your intent for the trade, to get the best results. You can learn more about this at my website.
NYSE:BABA
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
[Potential] XRPUSDT: 3-6 Mth Range PlayBITSTAMP:XRPUSD Technicals: - The two Horizontal Trendlines range in Yellow is a good consolidation area albeit quite a wide range - The other 2 Horizontal Trendlines (0.73 and 0.90) are also consolidation areas (good to either TP at those levels or take some off exposures off the table at those levels) Fundamentals: - The crypto space has taken a drastic hit from big capital wipeouts from major selloffs in various asset classes - There is still plenty of fear going on in the market and this bear market may drag on for some time - For Ripple, there is alot of ongoing legal issues that needs to be resolved with the SEC before we can see XRP moon ----- Expecting XRP to keep ranging in the Yellow area for now; watch for bounces off Trendlines to make good use of the XRP buying demand at key levels. We will be waiting for confirmations of multiple confluences before considering this trade setup ready. Patience is the key to success. ----- *This pair outlook is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this outlook is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by weekendanalyst
XAUUSD Price Action BreakdownGold has been in a range for almost two weeks with price bouncing back and forth between 1867 and 1829 (about 37 points). I think that the NFP report will bring in volume to push price out from this major range and could possibly continue the bullish trend on the daily TF. As long as the level of support holds around 1843 or 1838, we could see more bullish momentum as the week comes to a close. For now, I have mapped out some scalp trade opportunities going into the Asian session and possibly the NY session tomorrow.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by dreadhead4_life
SPY Channel Analysis with Levels (Week in Review Part III)POST FOMC MINUTES: 0DTE Credit Spreads, Long Trades, and LONG POSITIONS We must start with the TRENDLINE BREAKOUT that has been on our charts for weeks, and with the FOMC news behind us, the question for Thursday Premarket is do we reverse and drop during the Opening Range (OR) as we have seen so many times post FOMC. THURS: We got our answer pretty quick on THURSDAY with a GAP OPEN and immediate move over the WHITE SUPPLY Zone with the 1st ORANGE-BUY TARGET being hit in the Opening Range. Our AM Session included an Opening Range Breakout (ORB), so we held our LONG $ES_F and sold 0DTE $SPX Put Credit Spreads (PCS) under 3950 for Thursday...both of them printed. Our $SPY Traders still had 405.02 as Targets on their Daily charts from previous levels, and that level was hit immediately following a breach of the GRAY Line (R2-404.60). From there, we looked for a move towards the 2nd ORANGE Line (TGT 2) but SPY just couldn't quite get there. Any long positions cold have used the Daily 405.02 or the Intraday R2 (404.60) as a STOP EXIT for huge gains. SPY pushed almost 9pts on Thursday. FRI: In looking closer to the INTRADAY LEVELS, you need to recognize that FRIDAY's RED SELL TRIGGER was almost exactly where the previous day's BUY TARGET #2 was located. How can a SPY Level go from an extreme upside target to an actual SELL TRIGGER the following day? We cannot give the WHY, but rather just use the levels from our algo and trade what the day gives us. With the GAP OPEN, we cleared above the OVER/UNDER (not shown) and the GREEN BUY TRIGGER (408.57) in the first candle. From there, SPY hit the WHITE SUPPLY Zone early, and our upside targets were 411.02 (white dots from Daily chart) and 1st ORANGE TGT Line at 413. We anticipated the LOWS for the DAY (LoD) were in, so many held long $ES_F and others sold 0DTE $SPX PCS at 4050 and ultimately 4085. It was not until midway through our PM Session that SPY took out TARGET 1 (413) and then set it's sights on the Daily 415.15 (white dotted line) and Intraday R2 at 415.35 --which is EXACTLY where SPY CLOSED!!! What a late day squeeze...this was discussed and expected from the start of Power Hour!
AMEX:SPY
by VeteranWS
1
SPY Channel Analysis with Levels (Week in Review Part II)WED Analysis - the LOOK & FAIL followed by the BREAKOUT WED was a huge day, with the looming FOMC Minutes Release at the 1400 hour mark. We have broken the week down to provide insight into HOW & WHY we trade $SPY - both our ENTRIES & EXITS. WED- RANGE Morning between the WHITE LEVELS (SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONES) Textbook LOOK & FAIL from 10:15-11:15 and the ONLY REASON we did not initiate a LONG POSITION (different from a Long Trade) was the Downward sloping Trendline that we drew weeks ago. This Trendline never gave us a Breakout Signal w/ a close over it and the upper WHITE Line-SUPPLY ZONE was too strong of Resistance when coupled with the Trendline. SPY Returns back to our Intraday OVER/UNDER Line (not depicted on the chart). and flirts back with the RED SELL TRIGGER. There was no close under the RED TRIGGER, so our Thesis was still Long Trades (and possibly LONG POSITIONS) if we broke back up through the WHITE SUPPLY ZONE. Following the FOMC Minutes release at 1400, $SPY finally broke above the TRENDLINE & SUPPLY ZONE by 1420 hours (2:20pm) and we adjusted and closed some longer dated Put Debit Spreads (PDS). WED PM Session gave us an upside Target and we achieved a decent return longing some calls up into the ORANGE TGT1 Level for an INTRADAY / 0dte trade. $SPY/$SPX/$ES_F all closed above their prospective WHITE SUPPLY Zones, so we held some long ES Contracts overnight. PSA- TV would not allow us to publish a 5min Intraday Chart outlining the specific levels & times, so we used a zoomed in 15min Chart... PART III is next, covering Thurs & Friday
AMEX:SPY
by VeteranWS
SPY Channel Analysis with Levels (Week in Review)Last week, we provided a SPY Channel/Trend Analysis for the upcoming week. This weekend, we will break the week down into 2 segments: 1) the move to challenge the upper channel & 2) the $SPY channel/trendline break. In doing this, we will keep the 2 basic Channels/Trendlines on the chart, and overlay them with our Intraday Levels from our algo. This provides a greater perspective into how our preparedness meets the market throughout the week and why our confidence and expectancy in trading are so high. First, we have color-coded our INTRADAY LEVELS for speed in determining direction and postioning. This is our "Legend" if you will: GREEN/RED Lines are BUY/SELL Triggers WHITE Lines are SUPPLY/DEMAND (These are KEY R1/S1 levels with more significance than I will go into here) GRAY Lines are Support/Resistance (R2-R5/S2-S5) ORANGE Lines are BUY Targets (R1 goes to T1 / R2 to T2 / R3 to T3, etc...) PURPLE Lines are SELL Targets (S1 goes to T1 / S2 to T2 / S3 to T3, etc...) SPY INTRADAY- MON & TUES in Review MON- GAP Open and retreated back to the GREEN BUY TRIGGER, then hit WHITE SUPPLY (R1) & ORANGE LINE (TGT1) upside; $SPY was unable to push much over Gray Line (R2), but remained POSITIVE for the day TUES- GAP Down, SPY hit S4/T4 on Tues at 1045am, and put in a bottom...rallied all the way back up to WHITE DEMAND (S1) level and finish POSITIVE for the day
AMEX:SPY
by VeteranWS
SPY Channel Week in ReviewJust a follow up/review from last weekend's analysis on $SPY and a big part of our success is having a plan & knowing what to expect before it happens. Just from the 2 basic Channels (using simple trendlines), you can see SPY was GREEN all 5 days last week. Spy hit the Intermediate Trendline last Friday (5/20) and bounced off there for an expected return to the upper (Minor) level...SPY closed above the descending channel on Wed, following the release of FOMC minutes. From there, we had Targets (white dotted lines) drawn at 405 / 411 / 415.15 / & 420.9. Thursday & Friday achieved the first 3 and these levels were simply drawn from previous key lows. Our next chart idea will actually overlay just 1 of our algo's data on the intraday SPY chart and show you how simple yet powerful are the levels.
AMEX:SPY
by VeteranWS
1