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Rareearths

LYC - LYNAS - rare earth anti chinese monopoly playLYC - LYNAS - rare earth anti chinese monopoly play as the title says, china is once again applying restrictions like they did in 2010, low and behold we have the same price structure! these plays are cyclical for sure. they sorted their Malaysian issue recently, at least for awhile. i expect their move back to Australia will be facilitated by the western powers that be that are looking for independence in their important metals supply chain. Lets see how this plays out. "The Ministry of Commerce’s announcement on Monday is the latest move by the People’s Republic to leverage its dominant position mining and refining rare metals. It did so in 2010 against Japan over a territorial spat, enacting an unofficial, temporary export embargo against the 17 metallic elements that comprise the rare earths family. It also manipulated the market through export quotas and other policies, which held down global prices – deterring investment by miners overseas - while pushing local firms up the value chain. "
ASX:LYCLong
by Crypto-Quantum-Fox
Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) - Cautiously Optimistic The Heikin Ashi candlestick pattern suggests a recent trend reversal to the upside, as indicated by a series of green (upward) candles. The chart displays a consolidation pattern within a falling wedge, which has been broken to the upside, hinting at a potential bullish reversal. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) show the price is currently above the 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs, a bullish signal. A significant increase in volume accompanies the breakout, reinforcing the strength of the current upward move. The current price is near the upper bound of the falling wedge pattern ($6.60 - $6.50c), which could act as resistance and limit further upward movement. Prices holding above key EMAs, which may now act as support levels with current established support level at ~$6.02c
ASX:LYCLong
by entryspecialist
MP Materials: Falling Wedge With Bullish Divergence at a 0.886The Federal Reserve during the FOMC and in its SEP has hinted greatly towards deep rate cuts in 2024 because they see the CPI going down and no longer feel the need to tighten further, and are under the assumption that great progress has been made. I for one do not agree with this perspective and think rates need to go much higher before inflation can truly be subsided. Since the Fed is under what I view as a false assumption, I think we will now see Inflation and the CPI come back up even higher and faster than the first inflationary run up and that we will see this greatly reflected in Food, Energy, and Shipping prices. Along with this, I think it will affect the pricing of Rare Earth Elements which should end up being a positive for the Assets on the balance sheet of producers such as MP Materials, VALE, and US Steel: X, along with the REMX ETF; as demand for ships and other means of shipment/transport increases. The increase in demand for these types of shipments should also drive demand for the materials the shipping vehicles are made of, which should drive the prices higher for both. I do not think Gold and Silver will join this inflationary rally due to the collapse of the Japanese Carry Trade, and I do not believe the Dollar will lose much value during this rally in inflationary materials except against the Yen. This dynamic should also limit the rally potential in the big stock indexes, I only really expect certain names to benefit from the kind of inflation we are dealing with. So in short, I think the Bulk Dry Index continues to rise, Shipping Cost Rise, Ships themselves Rise, Oil Rises, and Rare Earth Materials Rise and when that happens, I suspect the Fed will pivot hard back in the other direction and start raising rates again.
NYSE:MPLong
by RizeSenpai
2
WATCHING THIS ONE… TMC has great potential!! People are up in arms after photos broke yesterday, showing the terrible conditions of a cobalt mine in the Congo. Of course, the irony here is that a lot of cobalt, along with many other materials powering the green revolution, are often sourced from places like the Congo with little regard for environmental or labor law. The reason I'm telling you this is that while all this was going on, a report came out of Norway. They went largely ignored by the media in which they announced they found a substantial amount of rare earth minerals on their seabed, many of which are currently being sourced from places like the Cobalt mine and the Congo I mentioned earlier. And here's the catch. They estimated to have found 3.1 million tons of cobalt alone. So how much is that? Let's do some quick math. The current market rate of cobalt is about $21 a pound. $21 a pound equals about $42,000 a ton. Multiply that by 3.1 million tons. That cobalt is worth 1.3 trillion, give or take, or three times Norway's total GDP. Now, of course, if Norway were to extract all that cobalt, it would be worth far less than 1.3 trillion because they'd flood the market with it. But nevertheless, when you consider all the other materials they found and how much of it, it's difficult to ignore the deep sea mining opportunity laying under the sea. Now, here's where I ran into some issues. There's only a few deep sea mining stocks and none of them have been able to commercialize yet, so they're all bleeding money. I was about to give up. Then I came across as CEO of a deep sea mining company with a ticker TMC that has been buying shares of his own company recently. This intrigued me, so I started researching them more and that's when I noticed that TMC second and third biggest shareholders are Maersk and Allseas Group. If you don't know, the reason that this is such a big deal is because Maersk is the largest container shipping company in the world by tonnage, and AllSeas is a major offshore construction company. The fact they both have major share positions in TMC, a company that has almost zero ceiling as far as economic and environmental benefits, along with the CEO buying shares all while the company is down 90% from its IPO. Makes me wonder if there's more than meet’s the eye. This might be more of a lottery ticket than an investment, but what do you guys think? To see what stocks, politicians, hedge funds, and CEOs are buying. Check out Quiver Quantitative www.quiverquant.com
NASDAQ:TMCLong
by RobertOttoman
2
MP Material one of the best SPACs$MP has been, for sure, one of the best SPACs when it comes to performance. SPACs got hammered multiple times. Barely did some of the known ones hold the $10 ground and some of them now are traded in $2-$3 range per share if now lower. I had a very high conviction on $MP from its DA announcement and I am holding it from before the merger. Today, I see more strength given the fact that they have a good moat when it comes to rare earth material. After China, they are the biggest one in the world and practically the only one in the US. Electrification is becoming more strategic and there have been rumors that China has threatened American companies on cutting off the supply of the rare earth. This is a very strong position for $MP. Their gross margin is not like a mining or material company, but like a tech company. This year they are projected to have an 82.10% gross margin on 446M revenue. The projection of the revenue for 2021 is 319.30M (137.7% growth compared to 2020). In 2022 the revenue growth rate is estimated to be around 40%. EV/GP (Enterprise Value/Gross Profit) for 2022 is 15.1 and EV/GP/Growth for the same year is 38.1. It shows the price of the stock is fair. Considering the growth, the price could go lower in a short term to offer a nice opportunity to buy or add. As it can be seen on the chart after the short report released on the 3rd Feb, the price recovered relatively and today it experienced nearly 8% hike so far. This shows the interest in $MP is high. If we can get a 20% discount from these levels to around 30s before the 24th Feb (2021 Q4 earning release) I believe it is a good level to start collecting or adding. This is not financial advice. DYODD
NYSE:MPLong
by IboProtrader
ICM - Iconic Minerals Ltd - D1 - 14NovICM - Iconic Minerals Ltd - D1 - 14Nov Last news : The economic model used in the PEA only covers the first 40 years of production. GRE has the following conclusions from the modelling. Average annual production of 32.3 million kg (32,300 tonnes) of LCE Cash operating cost of $5,974/tonne LCE All-in sustaining cost of $6,057/tonne LCE A $1.5 billion after-tax Net Present Value (NPV) at an 8% discount rate A 23.8% after-tax Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Payback period of 6.7 years Break-even price (0% IRR) of $6,545/tonne LCE
TSXV:ICMLong
by stratanic
When both technicals and fundamentals confluence$MP, the rare earth materials company, has reported great quarterly reports in the past year, and this year that proves it is pacing firmly to become a very sound investment in the course of electrification and the global clean energy campaign. After a 55% decline, the price became ripe for a good entry if you missed the train in the first place or add to an existing position. Today, a bounce from the 200 SMA confirms that $MP is on its way to higher targets namely: 39, 48, 64, 69, 89, and 97 in the coming months and years. This is a promising and pretty much a safe bet for those who are patient and want to surf on the wave of electrification regardless of the sector or the companies that fight for it to get a good share of the billions of dollars spent in the next 5 to 10 years. My target for the next 12 months was around $40, but if we continue with the momentum that we have seen in the past few days in the growth stock, we should be there this year. This is not investment advice, DYODD!
NYSE:MPLong
by IboProtrader
METALS - JUNIORS - ADDModel has given entry signals for Arctic Star Exploration Corporation - Arctic Star Exploration Corp., a junior natural resource company, acquires, explores for, and develops mineral properties in Canada and Finland. - The company primarily explores for diamond and niobium/rare earth deposits. - Its flagship project is the Timantti diamond project covering an area of 243 hectares exploration permit and 193,700 hectares exploration reservation located in Finland. - We are very excited about opportunities in niobium and rare earths, but as an added bonus, the company has unveiled compelling diamond findings from their Finland kimberlite zone. - Technically in a rising channel, and we expect a boom in the commodities sector. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
TSXV:ADDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
New position, MP materials LONG!After due diligence, I really like this company and it' future expansion plans and current execution. My PT is 45-47 so there is a lot of potential with this one. Hoping for more short term weakness to build a position (I am not expecting all my buy limits to get it, but if they do, even better. After position has been built, I'll let them roll until PT is hit. What do you guys think of MP materials? Seeing it from a risk-reward perspective for the long-term I am really liking this company!
NYSE:MPLong
by Fed02
More dip buying @ $29MP is at a critical support which is not just a trend line support, but also the 50MA. If the broader market weakness ends, I can see MP re testing the $50 high this year. Earnings later this month can be another possible catalyst, although I don't think positive earnings will be enough if market is weak. RSI still has room to dip, so I wouldn't be loading up here if you want to average in. If you don't hold a position though, great price to start at. If the sell off continues today, I see a great opportunity to dollar cost average at $28-29. MP is a great hold in my opinion, and has played beautifully with my previous price targets -- although a few weeks later than I expected (but eventually crossing my original price target of 42!) Good luck!
NYSE:MPLong
by Karam08
Upcoming bull market in rare earth mineral ETFThanks for viewing, I get a lot of satisfaction from identifying assets and asset classes that are under-valued. That means looking at some rather hopeless looking charts and looking for potential. Identifying under-valued assets e.g. commodities in chronic supply deficit is also a great way to both diversify a portfolio with uncorrelated (or negatively correlated) assets. "Rare earths, which are used in the high-strength magnets found in much of the latest tech, from smartphones to wind turbines to electric vehicles, will remain a primary issue for the resource sector well into the next decade as more countries in the west work to create supply chains that depend less on China (investingnews.com)." I will lay out my case for rare earths and you let me know what you think. For: - Bullish RSI divergence between Jan 2016 and March 2020 swing lows. Bullish RSI is when a lower low on the price chart is displayed as a higher low on the RSI. Not a bullet-proof indication, but a sign of weakening in the trend. I have identified some snorter-term bullish and bearish divergences in 2016, 2017, and 2019-20 that marked changes in the direction in price, - A significant draw-down (think retracement). Of course the over-all trend is down presently, and there is the possibility that it could go lower, but I see signs of a recovery. - Increasing volume. - A very bullish aspect is the recent move (+86% in <100 days) since March 2020 which was achieved with much lower than average volume. When the chart goes up on low volume it strongly suggests that sellers are exhausted. - Rare earth metals will be essential to a tech-driven / sustainable energy economy. I do mean essential, they allow jet engines to burn hotter, have greater reliability, and run more efficiently. The move to more efficient aircraft is a meta-trend that is only more important in present times - despite low travel demand (think aircraft retirements due to efficiency - the goal now is for airlines to lose the least money and more efficient aircraft. - China reduced production targets significantly in 2018 due to reducing rare earth reserves (global reserves once stood at 70% but have reduced to ~37% in 2018 www.prnewswire.com) - Trade war. - Whatever happens in the vote in November, the world is turning away from China. Factories are relocating, the possibility of both cold and hot wars are being discussed. But whatever happens, rare earth metals are "strategic metals." That means defence and industry in the US and elsewhere needs them to function almost regardless of commodity price. In 2019 the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) threatened retaliation against the US via halting or restricting the export of rare earth minerals to the US. - Both the US and China have threatened tariffs or restrictions on rare earth minerals, - There are signs that they are making good on this threat (although recent actions are not associated with a clear public CCP announcement about why exports are being limited from the CCP - they never are), - China rare earth exports account for 78% of US rare earth imports in 2017. The US is currently dependent on this stream of imports. Any substitution of supply is going to take a long time to eventuate. - Global trade is generally becoming "stickier" in terms of politics, transport, and travel. Against: - It is an ETF and I generally mistrust ETFs (e.g. SPDR GLD). While they can be useful, I will limit my ETFs to smaller positions. - It is an equity ETF, so it carries higher risk than other more stable investments. - The majority of Companies are from China. I am not a China expert, but I know enough to be concerned with the veracity and verifiability of their financial reporting, and maybe more importantly, there is a possibility that the CCP may annex some Companies or require them to do things that run counter to the organisations own best interests (i.e. restricting or blocking selling to some willing buyers). - Investing in China may not suit you depending on your position on moral investing e.g. Chinese human rights record, mining pollution, or that in China or mine worker death rate is 10x that of the US. - I expect a widespread draw-down in global equities due to a generalised deleveraging. So mining / refining equities will also be hit - possibly harder than average. - MACD weekly histogram is trending downwards and a MACD moving average cross-over to the downside is also possible. - I would put a short-term price at $28-34. - The underlying securities in the ETF have an aggregate PE ratio of 37, which is on the high side. - REMX has a 0.69 correlation with the SPX in the past 3 years, which is surprising given that the charts have been going quite different directions (0.7 and above is considered a strong correlation). If the time-frame was longer, say 5-10 years), the correlation would be lower. On the fence: - I will continue to buy on weakness and am looking for price to hold above $23.91 (i.e. make a higher low) for my bullish outlook to hold. If that low is not exceeded, I would call the bear market over. My outlook is rather bullish, but even if we get a 61% retracement (of 2011 highs), that would mean 500%+ gains from the $23.91 low. If I had to put odds on it, I would lean 70:30 towards bullish - maybe more - given the political situation. If someone should make an ETF with high quality rare earth equities that excluded Chinese companies I would increase that to 80:20 or more. I could write more, but I'm not sure anyone is here at the end :P Protect those funds
AMEX:REMXLong
by flyinkiwi10
11
#REMX - 100% safe? Rare Earth going up? #tradingviewThe Vaneck Rare Earth Metals ETF indicates an overall trend reversal in rare earths. The RSI - Relative Strength Index has not confirmed the lows of 2020 compared to the lows of 2016 and has built up a massive divergence on a monthly basis. In the course of the upward movement, the 2018 highs are likely to be surpassed, which from today's perspective would correspond to almost a doubling. Companies such as Defense Metals or Lynas are likely to react even more strongly than the ETF, and everyone should be aware of this, depending on their risk appetite.
AMEX:REMXLong
by StefanBode
2