Upcoming bull market in rare earth mineral ETFThanks for viewing,
I get a lot of satisfaction from identifying assets and asset classes that are under-valued. That means looking at some rather hopeless looking charts and looking for potential. Identifying under-valued assets e.g. commodities in chronic supply deficit is also a great way to both diversify a portfolio with uncorrelated (or negatively correlated) assets.
"Rare earths, which are used in the high-strength magnets found in much of the latest tech, from smartphones to wind turbines to electric vehicles, will remain a primary issue for the resource sector well into the next decade as more countries in the west work to create supply chains that depend less on China (investingnews.com)."
I will lay out my case for rare earths and you let me know what you think.
For:
- Bullish RSI divergence between Jan 2016 and March 2020 swing lows. Bullish RSI is when a lower low on the price chart is displayed as a higher low on the RSI. Not a bullet-proof indication, but a sign of weakening in the trend. I have identified some snorter-term bullish and bearish divergences in 2016, 2017, and 2019-20 that marked changes in the direction in price,
- A significant draw-down (think retracement). Of course the over-all trend is down presently, and there is the possibility that it could go lower, but I see signs of a recovery.
- Increasing volume.
- A very bullish aspect is the recent move (+86% in <100 days) since March 2020 which was achieved with much lower than average volume. When the chart goes up on low volume it strongly suggests that sellers are exhausted.
- Rare earth metals will be essential to a tech-driven / sustainable energy economy. I do mean essential, they allow jet engines to burn hotter, have greater reliability, and run more efficiently. The move to more efficient aircraft is a meta-trend that is only more important in present times - despite low travel demand (think aircraft retirements due to efficiency - the goal now is for airlines to lose the least money and more efficient aircraft.
- China reduced production targets significantly in 2018 due to reducing rare earth reserves (global reserves once stood at 70% but have reduced to ~37% in 2018 www.prnewswire.com)
- Trade war.
- Whatever happens in the vote in November, the world is turning away from China. Factories are relocating, the possibility of both cold and hot wars are being
discussed. But whatever happens, rare earth metals are "strategic metals." That means defence and industry in the US and elsewhere needs them to function almost
regardless of commodity price. In 2019 the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) threatened retaliation against the US via halting or restricting the export of rare earth
minerals to the US.
- Both the US and China have threatened tariffs or restrictions on rare earth minerals,
- There are signs that they are making good on this threat (although recent actions are not associated with a clear public CCP announcement about why exports are
being limited from the CCP - they never are),
- China rare earth exports account for 78% of US rare earth imports in 2017. The US is currently dependent on this stream of imports. Any substitution of supply is
going to take a long time to eventuate.
- Global trade is generally becoming "stickier" in terms of politics, transport, and travel.
Against:
- It is an ETF and I generally mistrust ETFs (e.g. SPDR GLD). While they can be useful, I will limit my ETFs to smaller positions.
- It is an equity ETF, so it carries higher risk than other more stable investments.
- The majority of Companies are from China. I am not a China expert, but I know enough to be concerned with the veracity and verifiability of their financial reporting, and maybe more importantly, there is a possibility that the CCP may annex some Companies or require them to do things that run counter to the organisations own best interests (i.e. restricting or blocking selling to some willing buyers).
- Investing in China may not suit you depending on your position on moral investing e.g. Chinese human rights record, mining pollution, or that in China or mine worker death rate is 10x that of the US.
- I expect a widespread draw-down in global equities due to a generalised deleveraging. So mining / refining equities will also be hit - possibly harder than average.
- MACD weekly histogram is trending downwards and a MACD moving average cross-over to the downside is also possible.
- I would put a short-term price at $28-34.
- The underlying securities in the ETF have an aggregate PE ratio of 37, which is on the high side.
- REMX has a 0.69 correlation with the SPX in the past 3 years, which is surprising given that the charts have been going quite different directions (0.7 and above is considered a strong correlation). If the time-frame was longer, say 5-10 years), the correlation would be lower.
On the fence:
- I will continue to buy on weakness and am looking for price to hold above $23.91 (i.e. make a higher low) for my bullish outlook to hold. If that low is not exceeded, I would call the bear market over.
My outlook is rather bullish, but even if we get a 61% retracement (of 2011 highs), that would mean 500%+ gains from the $23.91 low. If I had to put odds on it, I would lean 70:30 towards bullish - maybe more - given the political situation. If someone should make an ETF with high quality rare earth equities that excluded Chinese companies I would increase that to 80:20 or more.
I could write more, but I'm not sure anyone is here at the end :P
Protect those funds
