The DXY looks like it could start to break down below 100. If we get a weekly close below the grey box I think we see stocks and crypto perform very well. FED interest rate decision coming up as well this week with markets expecting a cut in rates, combined with DXY breaking down, would be cause for a strong move up in markets. We could however, see a hard landing...
A nice alignment comparing SPX, NDX, RUT with the Fed Funds Rate showing when the FED raises rates and cuts rates and how it impacts the indexes. 1995 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 1998 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 2001 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2007 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2019 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher (but after 30-40% COVID Crash) Nobody knows how this cycle will impact current...
Technical Analysis: Gold The price is approaching its all-time high of 2450 and is expected to consolidate between 2450 and 2428 until a breakout occurs. Bullish Scenario: If the price continues its bullish trend to reach the all-time high of 2450, closing a 1-hour or 4-hour candle above this level will support further increases towards 2466. Bearish...
ANALYSIS ON FED STANCE Powell has consistently indicated that interest rate decisions would hinge on economic data, a stance reaffirmed by the unchanged rates in the latest policy announcement. Despite the Fed's clarification that rate cuts are unlikely until there is more certainty that inflation is consistently heading towards the 2% target, some still question...
Daily chart. Resistance zone. It remains to be seen the position of the FED, whether or not to lower the rate? Make up your mind.
Dear ZTraders, We'd like to provide you with an analysis of the factors contributing to the potential decline in gold prices. While recent gains were largely attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, several significant factors at play may lead to a drop in gold prices: Stronger U.S. Economy: A robust U.S. economy tends to reduce the demand for...
*** end of INFLATED USD Deflation is coming. Food for thought. Because THE CYCLES EXIST and THEY RHYME.
2023 saw one of the narrowest bull markets in history, with only 10 stocks contributing 14.3% out of the 20.6% rally during the first 7 months of the year. Since then, markets have turned with the S&P 500 and the MSCI World dropping around -7% since their top1. Looking forward to the rest of 2023 and beyond, uncertainty is high: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has...
Thu Aug 3 10:00am CHF CPI m/m -0.1% 0.1% 2:30pm GBP BOE Monetary Policy Report GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 7-0-2 7-0-2 GBP Monetary Policy Summary GBP Official Bank Rate 5.25% 5.00% 3:00pm GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
Fundamental Backdrop Overnight Rate on Wednesday is expected to maintain at 4.50% Technical Confluences Resistance level at 1.36374 Support level at 1.33166 Idea If the Overnight Rate maintains at 4.50% as expected, we could see the price drop towards the support level at 1.33166. However, if the Overnight Rate increases, we could see the price...
Fundamental Backdrop RBA Gov Lowe spoke today He mentioned "Very Much in Data-Dependent Mode on Interest Rates", " "Monetary Policy in Restrictive Territory" This means that the RBA is closely monitoring economic data and could potentially continue increasing interest rates CPI y/y also increased from 6.3% to 6.8%, this shows inflation is still on a strong...
On GBP/USD, I am betting on a rise this morning before the rate announcement. I am expecting a weakening of the dollar, as large banks are starting to sell the currency in anticipation of buying it back at a more advantageous price after the data release. This setup comes with a very high risk. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to all. Forex48...
*SMC = Smart Money Concept - See related Ideas for Tutorials on these concepts. I pulled two smart Money Fibs on the latest waves. The largest of the two has a Liquidity point that could be broken by the end of the quarter as "Smart Money" or the intuitional powers that be, may push it that way. After it breaks the Liquidity Level (Below 1.20120) or near the...
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.
Doge is in a declining parallel channel. Awaiting breakout of the channel, and clearing the moving averages will setup a long to 0.96, then 0.108 and 0.146 resistance levels. The rsi is also supportive of such a move with it currently trending upwards and not in an overbought position. The MACD is also beginning to trend upwards with the MACD line crossing over...
2023 has been ushered in with a rebound in pockets of equity underperformance from 2022. Markets are coming to terms with the fact that stickier inflation and more resilient economic data globally are likely to keep central banks busy this year. Owing to which the spectre of interest rates staying higher for longer appears to be the dominant theme for the first...
This chart shows the effective federal funds rate in comparison to the 30 year and 3 month yield over the past five years. There are 5 interesting times to look at: 1. Late 2018 long term yields began to peak right before the fed stopped their hiking cycle. Yield curve began to flatten. 2. They then stayed put for about 6 months with the 3MY hovering right...
Here's SPY x Fed Funds Rate / M2 Money Supply. The only times this metric was this high was in 2000 and 2007 when stock market was in Bubble status. Looks like SPY is overvalued. What do you think?