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USO vs. USDNOK + divergence in Cash rate.Divergence in cash rate policy between US and Norway, creates an opportunity for shorting the pair. US is expected to cut its rate, while slower economic growth is waiting to hit the dollar. Norway's economy is doing great, and therefore they expect to increase the cash rate. also looking at USO vs the pair, as it have been highly diverge against each other. could though see oil lower as we are in driving season and a build is occurring, which means demand is low. entering on spot, with a hedge until a reasonable level to enter net short position for USDNOK. Happy trade :)
TVC:USOILShort
by Fx-AlphaStrats
US Inflation, damage to the global economy & PM BorisAccording to The Economist, the trade war between the United States and China has already caused the global economy irreparable damage, disrupting the supply chain that had been creating for several decades. The point is that, there are a lot of Chinese companies have found the way of delivery of goods to the United States. For instance, across Vietnam. The scheme is very simple: the label “Made in Vietnam” is glued to Chinese goods and the goods are sold in the United States without the additional costs associated with duties. The downside of this was the destruction of the old logistics chains, and the creation of new ones, apart from the general riskiness, requires additional costs. As proof of the damage, the information has been given as an example that the current business cycle is ending. Since the crisis in 2008, the world economy has gone through a very long period of recovery, and the business cycle usually enters a recession phase every decade. This assumption is confirmed by the data on exports from the developed countries, as well as exports from developed countries to other developed countries, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2009. In general, it is worth preparing for the worst. In this regard, we recall that our recommendations are buying safe-haven assets. It is worth noting yesterday's inflation data from the United States. Consumer inflation appeared below forecasts and reached the Fed target. This is quite an alarming signal for the dollar. Note, that the markets still believe that the Fed will leave the rate unchanged next week, but in a month in July, the US Central Bank will lower the rate by 0.25% (the current probability of this event is more than 80%). Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has launched his campaign to get a post of Prime Minister. His main slogan is "Brexit at any price". This is an alarming signal for the pound, because "at any price" includes a no-deal Brexit. In this case, the consequences for the UK economy as a whole and the pound, in particular, could be unpredictable. Our trading preferences for today are as follows: we will continue to look for points for the US dollar sales against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and sales of GBPUSD.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Buy EURUSDEURUSD is bouncing from the ascending trend line on daily time frame supporting the bullish view on the short term. SL should be placed under the 1.12 level. ECB will announce its rate decision tomorrow, although the inflation and growth risk are skewed to the downside but Q1 data is weak and could make Mario Draghi express his concern about economy losing its momentum which could put pressure on rate hike in 2019 summer expectations, and leaves the door open for additional easing measures. albeit I would prefer buying the pair from low level rather than selling it. Goodluck
Long
by Assem_Mansour
How the FED Will Pump SilverHistorically, when the FED decides to raise interest rates it ends up breaking the market. This happened in 2000 and 2008 with the solution being interest rate suppression and quantitative easing. Both of these methods produce abnormal rates of inflation, leading the FED to raise interest rates in an attempt to preserve the purchasing power of the dollar - and it breaks once more. It is practically certain that going into this next recession, the FED will once more lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Yet each time they do this, they must start by filling the "bad debt black hole" in order to prevent a complete breakdown in confidence. The black hole grows proportionally to debt, and considering there is more debt now than there ever has been in history, the initial round of QE required this go around must be unprecedented in scale. QE and suppressed interest rates are what caused commodity prices to take off in 2009, notably gold, silver and oil. We can expect the same result this go around. Once the FED is forced to lower interest rates close to or below 0%, there will be no floor on inflation. That point in time will be the perfect setup for silver to shine. When will it happen? It could take another year or so before we see a FED response to a market suffering from debt withdrawals. SLV calls are particularly attractive in such a scenario, as they offer superior leverage for limited risk. Assuming SLV went from $15 to $60 within two years (well within reason), SLV calls offer reward:risk of up to 70:1. Best positioning may be found after a drastic FFR rate cut. Side note: Largest physical holding of silver, and manager of the SLV fund, just so happens to be JPM. JPM also *coincidentally* held the largest net short position in silver on the futures exchange not long ago (cash deliverable only).
AMEX:SLVLong
by Derivati_Capital
2
Yields and Equities at critical junctureTop black line is the major resistance line. If yields break this, the US is majorly fucked and signals an end to "cheap money" at a time with debts and unfunded liabilities at all time highs. Yellow line is the support line of the 37+ year channel going back to the early 1980s. Red line is the more recent resistance line which began in June 2007 at the eve of the GFC. The election of Trump provided the catalyst required to push yields above this resistance line. A year later, the 2017 tax cuts and more specifically, deficit spending provided the catalyst needed to push yields to firmly break out of this pattern and test the long term resistance. Tax reform resulted in nearly year long sugar high in equities and rising interest rates for all. Resistance proved too strong, for now. What to expect going forward: In any event, long term yield will likely only go lower. Yields breaching the long term black line, at a time of all time high debt, means much pain and could even lead to war, so will likely be avoided at all cost. The end game is zero and negative. Currently, yields are resting more or less, exactly at the .786 fib support line; currently 2.85%. As support lines go, this one is pretty weak and won't need much of a catalyst to break and send yields lower to 2.52% What could send yields back up to test 3.26? An announcement of a trade deal and/or removal or decrease in tariffs could provide the catalyst needed to send yields back to 3.26 and possibly breach black line of death. This would be bad long term and any such deal will likely prove short lived. The US and China seem to be on an unstoppable path to eventual conflict/war. More likely, no deal is reached and trade relations continue to deteriorate sending both equities and yields lower. Or, such a deal is short lived and fails. 10 year reaches 2.52% and from here has an opportunity to crash straight to 2.07% or bounce back to 2.80-2.85 before ultimately going down to 2.07% (and below) anyways. Sorry. In short, no matter how one looks at it, yields are either going to continue their 37+ year trend LOWER or we're going to break that black line of death and then the US will REALLY begin to feel the (debt) squeeze. RSI suggest we will eventually test that black resistance line, at some point in the future.
TVC:US10Y
by jdharward
USDCAD: After BoC Interest Rate Good afternoon everyone, we are looking at the USDCAD pair again after the BoC Interest Rate decision. They did not change anything so the news were not that good for the CAD and for our long term short trade, that we linked below. On the other hand the pattern is pretty much the same as before. The only difference is that there is another spike high and a better entry chance for now - divergence also held its form. Means we are still overall bearish on this pair.
Short
by darian_fx
2
BoC on Deck this month ... fading corrective rallies in USDCAD=> We still maintain our USDCAD short position from earlier in the week and recommend selling all corrective rallies here ahead of the BoC rate hike widely expected this month. => Although the rate hike is expected this trade is far from crowded and we see incoming data to keep the BoC on track with tightening monetary policy. => Odds of any hikes are close to 90% probability (in other words it is a done deal) which makes complete sense considering that the decreased political uncertainty allows the BoC to completely focus on better fundamentals when setting policy (a rarity in this world...) => We are expecting payrolls to reach 195k and average hourly earnings expected to come in at 2.9% YoY. => Markets are expecting a better outcome, especially considering the price action we've seen in US yields and the USD via ADP and ISM employment components. => Good luck all trading this live
by ridethepig
1
BTP, calm before the storm, trigger the interest ratehello guys here's a new idea on italy BTP. First of all, we saw recently that the market wants to speculate (again) on BTP, this means that interest rate until September will go down, then will rise due to rating agencies decision and what is called 'DEF', the document of economics and finance by the Government. In this document there'll be the outline of fiscal policy, I expect a higher deficit and maybe a cut in taxes. This will trigger a sell in the bond market of BTP, driving interest rate up and consequently price down. Here I post a couple of interest readings on Italy, which can give us some idea of what to expect. www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com au revoir, docCDS
TVC:IT10
by DocCDS
Bitcoin S-curve with Mining History + Qualitative Hasing RateSome assumptions first: Bitcoin follows an S-curve typical of many growing technologies (and sometimes even stocks/indices): Adoption chart The exact gradients / inflexion points of the S-curve shown here is illustrative, as we cannot know its future development. The hashing rate shown here (brown line) is completely illustrative and represents only the changing trend (which has been increasing or constant since 2010). S-curves (which appear as exponential curves in linear charts) indicate a viral exchange of information which is typical of technology adoption and hype (this is where stocks/indices come in etc) In the case of Bitcoin, although the rate of production is supposed to be constant (hence difficulty adjustment) and therefore cannot affect the price, there is a clear relationship between price development and the development of network hashing rate. The hashing rate develops with the evolution of the mining sector from 2010 hobbyist to 2018 industrialist. The next big boom in Bitcoin will take place in conjunction with the next revolution in mining. There are some 4 million Bitcoins still left to mine. The next halving (block reward reduction to 6.25 BTC/block) is probable in summer 2020. But the halving is not necessary in order to start a new growth phase . In fact the previous two halvings occurred half-way through the growth cycle. Some reading: Controlled Supply Evolution of Bitcoin Hardware Bitcoin hashing rate Bitcoin mining price 2015 Bloomberg mining price 2018
BNC:BLXEducation
by RealMcafee
86