2/11/2017 GBP/USD AnalysisPrice has reached the support level with a big bearish candle, after Bank of England policy makers raised interest rates for the first time in a decade. www.bloomberg.com
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(4h) Short-Term Sell & Long-Term BuyAfter analyzing the bigger timeframe perspective of the GBPUSD, it seems that the market cycle for this pair is heading for a bullish trend . The Fed Interest Rate decision will determine the continuation of this trend, although it's more than likely that the Fed will maintain the current Interest Rate value until December 13th.
Utilizing the Fibonacci Retracement Levels, we can expect a downward correction in the following days, followed by a long-term continuation of the original bullish impulse.
So, for Scalpers , it's recommended to put a Sell order after the Fed decision as the price will move towards 0.5 level, possibly reaching the 0.618. Nevertheless, I'd say it's a good idea to place a Buy order once it bounces back, from these same levels, for the longer pip ride.
EURUSD Small Term Upwards Correction (First Published Idea!)If correct, we should expect a slight bullish correction. However, Fed Rate Interest decision will define if we'll have a bearish or bullish trend over the next months.
I'm adopting the Elliot Wave Theory for these initial series of ideas, mixing eventually with future Fibonacci retracements that will indicate the entry point of each trade.
NZDUSD long after RBNZ Interest Rate DecisionWe have two fake breakouts at NZDUSD, and a consolidation after. Two ways to enter the position:
1) After leaving the consolidation
2) Or now 0.7195 to maximize your R:R
NZDUSD - Bearish Bias Going Into RBNZ Rate StatementThe focus for this week will definitely be on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), a.k.a the Kiwi.
The New Zealand’s central bank – the Reverse Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be releasing their latest Official Cash Rate and the Rate Statement this Thursday. Since the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.75%, the key will be the tone of the Rate Statement.
A dovish tone will see more selling pressure on the NZD; while a hawkish tone will see the NZD being support by the bulls.
Based on our analysis, we are holding a bearish bias on the NZD.
Since late July this year, the NZDUSD has fallen from the high at 0.7557 to the low at 0.7131 in a 5-wave structure; and has since bounced higher towards the recent high at 0.7434 in a 3-wave structure.
According to Elliott Wave Principle, a complete price cycle comprises a 5-wave move, followed by a 3-wave correction.
With that, the correction in NZDUSD is deemed to be completed, and we are now expecting more downside potential for this currency pair.
Long GBPAUD - Anticipating No Surprise to MPC VoteSo generally the MPC vote is expected to be Neutral and if we look through a bit, if it does comes out 7 Hold to 2 Hike as expected, GBP should be weaken.
Now my intention is to look for clue if the market has already priced this in: on average, up to this point GBP is down with the most down being GBPAUD. Let's say the trend continues to in the next hour, my conclusion is the market has priced in the base case expectation. What I will do is to Enter Long GBPAUD as I bet if the outcome is Neutral GBP will rebound. The scenario where I will lose money will be not all of the results came out as expected i.e. one of those data point is even more bearish (increase in amount of APF, more than 0 dovish vote).
Technical level: it is hovering around 1.6476 - 1.65, I will make Entry with Stop-loss below these, TP is around 1.6574 - 1.66
DXY Bullish thesisA potential trade idea however due to FED rate hike potential we will sit this one out likely as volatility may be just to great and the risk is higher on this one, however this is a good one to watch and keep an eye on for June 14th 2017 US Session.
Falling wedge
Inverse H&S pattern (forming)
Higher low (forming)
Bullish MACD divergence
usd index (up) we have many technical analysis in this chart we have :-
1- head and shoulders pattern .
2- ABCD pattern .
3- support .
4- flag .
and all of this technical give us expectation the USD will go up .
tomorrow we have many news and pig news like :-
1- CPI m/m
2- Core CPI m/m
3- Core Retail Sales m/m
4- Retail Sales m/m
5- FOMC Economic Projections
6- Federal Funds Rate
7- FOMC Press Conference
all of this news are very important than technical
what will happen if this news Especial " Federal Funds Rate " are be greater than last time, USD will go to 97.80
and any pair against USD will fall down
and i expect this will go happen tomorrow
AUDUSD Daily AUDUSD testing descending trend line also EMA is crossing.
Rate decision,Trade Balance,GDP report will show clear direction of aussie keep an eye @ this level
float listFLOT Ishares Floating Rate Bond Etf 0.16% 0.32% 50.89 50.38 0.00% 50.84 Buy Strong Buy 50.85 768.111K
DRIP Direxion Daily S&p Oil Services Bear 3x Shares 43.89% -9.72% 54.75 10.28 -0.99% 17.92 Buy Strong Buy 19.08 779.961K
CHKP Check Point Software Tech Ltd 6.54% 32.90% 104.64 74.34 0.30% 103.05 Buy Strong Buy 103.41 1.036M
EL Lauder Estee Cos Inc 9.05% -1.87% 97.48 75.30 -0.91% 85.37 Sell Buy 85.18 1.502M
EWU Ishares Msci United Kingdom Etf 4.05% 6.58% 33.13 27.60 0.03% 32.44 Sell Buy 32.37 1.577M
ERY Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3x Shares 23.63% -3.99% 21.50 8.59 0.08% 11.84 Buy Strong Buy 12.41 1.809M
SPLV Powershares S&p 500 Low Volatility Portfolio 5.01% 7.46% 44.01 39.61 0.05% 43.52 Buy Strong Buy 43.61 1.873M
KCG Kcg Hldgs Inc 44.37% 29.00% 19.78 11.74 -0.15% 18.29 Buy Strong Buy 19.75 2.66M
CYTK Cytokinetics Inc 27.83% 46.49% 14.35 7.18 4.78% 12.76 Buy Strong Buy 14.25 6.551M
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AUDNZD Elliott Forecast & Flag Breakout TradeAt the moment, in the big picture we are forming an ABC zigzag correction pattern which will take us into the 1.07408 area in which price will continue upwards. For now we can short down to this level by taking flag breakouts in favor of the downside. We have just closed below an ascending triangle on the lower timeframes and this has lead me to go short taking conservative targets @1.08240.
I may, however, trail stops with structure if the AUD interest rate decision causes more bears to step in.
Potential Sell Zone towards FOMC24-25$ is a potential Sell Zone that includes:
1) Weekly Structure
2) Bearish Crab
3) The 78.6 Fib level (reversal level)
A close below 23$ can provide the confirmation signal - In such case, XLF target will be 21$
USDJPY Inverted Cup and Handle Again? March 20-24 Trading PlanFX:USDJPY broke the 50DMA once again and looking bearish in my opinion. The breakdown and downtrend is also supported by the moving averages on the hourly timeframes.
Don't have any big positions as I expected it to retest the 114 breakdown level but it didn't happen
4H Timeframe View:
FX:USDJPY tried to break the 200MA but it failed and continued its downtrend breaking the 113 support
1H Timeframe View:
Looks like its consolidating after the 113 breakdown but I wouldn't discount a possible pullback to retest the 113 level and it would be a great short level if the downtrend continues.
Preferred Entry: 112.9-113
Stop: 113.3
Profit: 111.6
But there is also a possibility that it would stay on this level until it once again breaks down. If that was the case then we can simply wait for either the 20MA(red line) or the 50MA(yellow line) on the 1H timeframe to reach the price and short it at the level if it doesnt break above it.
If the 111.6 profit target is reached, we can take partial profits or move stops to profit as its possible FX:USDJPY will bounce on this area as it has done multiple times in the past or finally break that daily support
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Make XAUUSD Great Again! March 20-24 Trading PlanOANDA:XAUUSD has broken out of the downtrend after the 1260 rejection and with hourly timeframe moving averages confirming the trend change. Bulls are still in the game and it looks like it will have another try against the Wall of Trump resistance.
No big positions as of yet as I expected a pullback that didn't materialize and it consolidated for 2 days straight after the FOMC breakout.
4H Timeframe View:
OANDA:XAUUSD is sitting just right above the 200MA and its looking to be a firm support for the next upmove
1H Timeframe View:
OANDA:XAUUSD is forming higher lows after the FOMC breakout which suggests buyer strength. The 1230 level/20DMA is still acting as a resistance but as long as the current momentum continues it will be great to take a long position if there will be a short pullback to the 1206-1207 level and if the said level holds.
Preferred Entry: 1226-1227.5
Stop: 1223
Profit 1260
Just in case the level doesn't hold, we can look for a pullback till the 1219-1220 and take a long position if it holds.
Preferred Entry: 1219-1220
Stop: 1216
Profit 1260
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Dollar Index Daily ChartThe dollar index on the daily chart you can see that we are now in a key area where it is testing resistance from February and November 2015, due to recent results from the US raising interest rates this has caused concern for investors and we have seen a big sell off, I believe we may see a big sell off again after the pullback to 99.26 0.382 fib or even gain strength and break back through the 0.236 fib at 101.00 and then break resistance as shown in the chart.
Euro-Bund big correctionEuro-Bund starts to have more corrective moves.
The last week Euro-Bund correction add some strength to Euro against most of currencies.
If the price of Euro-Bund continue to fall, we may see more strength in the Euro.
Euro-Bund is challenging a major support levels.
A bigger drop or a massive correction of Euro-Bund, may even put pressure on ECB to revise the Interest Rate.
XAUUSD VS The Wall of Trump and Moving Averages Round 2: HAMMER!FX_IDC:XAUUSD now has a bullish daily hammer courtesy of Janet Yellen after being rejected from 1260 level. If the bullish momentum continues then FX_IDC:XAUUSD might have the weapon it needs to break that wall and the cluster of moving averages but it needs to get back to the fight.
Entry: 1229.02
SL: 1227(Moved to 1229.5)
TP: (tp1) 1246 (tp2) 1251 (tp3) 1260
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
EURUSD UncertaintyCurrently, the sentiment of the pair seems to be clearly inclined to a down movement of the price. But we should rather wait until Friday to find out more about what will be the real direction of the pair.
Note that the US is strongly considering a hike in interest rate which can cause the USD to grow much stronger.
However, the France is currently on crosshead of most European traders. Le pen is one step ahead against his opponent. Her winning the presidential election will be crucial for the Euro and combined with the increase in the FED Interest rate we can almost definitely conclude that the EURUSD pair will undergo a downfall.
AUDUSD pivotFREE FOOD
"Fed on course to raise interest rates at an upcoming meeting: Yellen" -Reuters
This means that the US dollar will appreciate again by around 300 points after the decision.Now seems to be the good time to go long usd. Personally i believe that the AUDUSD is overvalued and should be in the range of 0.65 and 0.7 in the years of 2017/2018 ,but thanks to the rising commodity prices and Donald Trumps fear mongering protectionist policies the aussie dollar stayed clear on the course and has appreciated from falling to 0.72 from 0.75 from the December FED interest rate rate.
