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Price behavior patterns - Long term analysis Looking back since 1995 we see clear price behavior pattern in SPX: 1. Smooth and steady climbing of the Index throughout years. 2. Just before a major reversal we see a price action widening and choppiness increase. 3. Bearish reversal following a close below the Fast MA line. As you can see, since 2015 we are inside the trading range period. It is wider than before and that probably due to the level of engagement of central banks in the markets. After the elections SPX bounced from the Fast MA line and therefore didn't provide the bearish trigger... instead, it provided a bullish one with strong bullish reaction to the MA line. Things look like we still have some more upside in SPX but it is limited. We are probably in a wide distribution phase and it'll end when SPX will close again below 2000 (below the Fast and 50 MA lines) Read more about what's in store for 2017 in this week's newsletter (link in signature)
FX:SPX500
by themarketzone
Short article on USDCADUSDCAD, 1 Hour. Elliott Wave - suggests corrective waves (we're basically at the end of the B leg at the time I'm writing this), it might form an advanced pattern to go short. But nothing is complete yet, I'll update this topic when I see changes in the market. News - RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) as well as other banks changed their mortgage rate (they actually increased it) and investors might not like this, causing a small devaluation of the canadian dollar. According to these news, the pair would do a upward move. USDollar - We can also see that the US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) is going up and almost touched a 14-year old high today (November 16th). So theorically, the value of the USD is increasing, and the value of the CAD is decreasing a little bit. I might go for a short-term LONG position, from B to a little bit higher than A, than take profit (SL just below 5). But to be honest, with the USD going up and CAD going down, I think the currency rate won't be so good for Canadians. (USD/CAD going up on a long-term).
by bbatrading
Testing trading range lows$EURUSD suffered great losses last week as the Dollar Index (DXY) broke above the 100$ price zone with Yellen's help. Now the Dollar Index is testing the monthly 61.8 Fibonacci level (102$) and $EURUSD is testing 2015 lows - The bottom of a weekly trading range. The harmonic pattern hasn't been violated yet and X will be tested as well. Focus Zone - 1.05-1.06 Potential target zones - 1.075 and 1.08 Is the EURUSD going to be a good buy towards 2017? Read more about this setup and more in this week's newsletter (link in signature)
Long
by themarketzone
Friendly Unique Forex Reminder to NOT Trade TodayHi there fellow traders, I hope you are all having a great day and a profitable week thus far. This week has been a rough week to trade with all the major economic news events. Last nights the BOJ announced their interest rate decision which they left unchanged and now today we have the interest rate decision from the FED. It is expected that they will leave rates unchanged and therefore the statement will be key. Depending on the view of the FED, hawkish or dovish, will ultimately push the markets. That all being said, it is a complete crap shoot. It is likely that the FED will remain hawkish, but we just never know. As traders it is our goal to facilitate an edge in the markets where the odds sway in our favor. By attempting to trade the FED interest rate decision you are attempting to trade during market conditions where the odds are overwhelmingly against you; that is gambling. Don't be a gambler... be a trader.. We suggest you turn off the computer and get outside. Enjoy the day!
TVC:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn261897
2
THE BUND IS READY FOR A CRASH! HIGH PROBABILITY!RESISTANCE LEVELS: 168,25 - 168,75 SUPPORT LEVELS: 160,90 - 161,40 155,75 148,7 - 149,20 EXPLANATION: The Central Bank is trying to keep Rates at record low to stimulate the economy. How hard they will try this will never never work, there is always and end. Also to this! The Trend will change at some point! It seems that this will not take a very long time before it will crash and the Trend will change. The signals are verry clear! We are looking on a Weekly chart, this gives some room to look in a larger/ longer term perspective. What we see here is that we are moving in a WIG this means that the range is narrowing and the Price will make a hugh move 10 - 12 percent when the Trendline is broken. It is supported by the Indicators that show NEGATIVE divergence . THE KEY LEVEL TO WATCH IS; 166 . When this level breaks, then much lower prices can be expected. First move has some room to 149!
GShort
by Forextra_official
DYNAMIC STRADDLE: USDJPY & GBPJPY - TP FROM BOJ & FOMC EVENT VOLThe best Idea to play BOJ and FOMC from a risk-averse perspective is to own both in a Long Straddle Strategy Dynamic Straddle: Long USDJPY & Short GBPJPY - TP from volatility & Event likely hoods TP levels = cannot be greedy else you may miss one trades exit point so <25 pips when it goes in your direction for each - total TP = 50pips as 2*25pips Reasoning - Traditional Straddle involves would be long and short the SAME cross.. - However i suggest we long USDJPY as UJ has proportionately MORE upside possibility: 1. FOMC is likely to be neutral-Hawkish, this will help UJ trade flat/ higher = Supports long - - *FOMC PARADOX* important to note that in this sensitive risk-off market if the FED is too hawkish/ hikes it can cause a UJ sell off, as higher rates means greater economic/ market uncertainty as liquidity and financing becomes tighter (despite rate hiking usually making USD trade higher through increased $ deposit demand for higher rates) 2. BOJ is likely to be dovish, this will help UJ to trade higher (especially in this risk averse market - easing helps calm mrkts) = supports long 3. USDJPY ISNT directly impacted by BREXIT fears as GBPJPY as USD and JPY can be considered safety assets, this helps USDJPY trade higher = supports long So we have 3/3 for long USDJPY. - Now to hedge this trade AND benefit from possible downside, we SHORT GBPJPY as GJ has proportionately MORE downside possibility. 1. FOMC neutral-hawkish, drives risk-off momentum (higher rates reduces market liquidity and undermines economic growth thus increasing uncertainty) which drives demand for Yen/JPY, increased demand for JPY supports short GBPJPY 2. BOJ being dovish/ easing potentially helps JPY sell off - however, GBPJPY will be the least sensitive of JPY seller of the JPY crosses, as GBPJPY is the perfect play for Brexit and risk-off, hence in the long run JPY selling wont last long in GBPJPY as once JPY is cheap, buyers will enter to continue hedging/ speculating on brexit with the favourite pair, poor potential/ long run JPY sell side = supports gbpjpy short 3. GBPJPY is directly impacted by Brexit uncertainty in two ways. 1) as investors wish to sell GBP as the uncertainty is only negative for GBP (especially when polls are at 55%). 2) as Investors wish to buy JPY for their "safe haven" asset play. UJ only has the JPY buying to push it lower, which is limited/ offset further as USD buying can also be considered a "safe haven asset) = Supports short GBPJPY We have 3/3 for short GBPJPY Evaluation. - We have 3 points supporting both LONG UJ and SHORT GJ - AND by playing this trade we are able to gain from ALL eventualities, we dont have to guess the BOJ or FOMC outcomes since we have a LONG and a SHORT we have covered ALL eventualities. - Also from a vol perspective, GBPJPY risk reversals continue to become negative by a significant amount 1wks lost 0.6 to -2.1 (from -1.5), so investors continue to demand GBPJPY downside puts for speculation/ hedging - supporting the short. - USDJPY ATM volatility, sold off significantly with 1wks losing 3.55 to 12.45 - lower vol in UJ supports buying. *Any questions on why i think FOMC will be neutral-Hawkish or why BOJ will be dovish-easing please ask in the comments*
by QuantumLogicTrading