AUDUSD pivotFREE FOOD
"Fed on course to raise interest rates at an upcoming meeting: Yellen" -Reuters
This means that the US dollar will appreciate again by around 300 points after the decision.Now seems to be the good time to go long usd. Personally i believe that the AUDUSD is overvalued and should be in the range of 0.65 and 0.7 in the years of 2017/2018 ,but thanks to the rising commodity prices and Donald Trumps fear mongering protectionist policies the aussie dollar stayed clear on the course and has appreciated from falling to 0.72 from 0.75 from the December FED interest rate rate.
RATE
NZD/USD downtrend developingHello,
NZD/USD downtrend taking shape, price is pulling back, will look for short position as soon as pull back momentum will decrease, probably rejecting 50 EMA and 0.382 fib, even though given the current acceleration I'd say it could even reach 0.5 or 0.618, while waiting for Fed's rate hike.
Either way keep your eyes peeled and be ready to get in the trend!
Price behavior patterns - Long term analysis Looking back since 1995 we see clear price behavior pattern in SPX:
1. Smooth and steady climbing of the Index throughout years.
2. Just before a major reversal we see a price action widening and choppiness increase.
3. Bearish reversal following a close below the Fast MA line.
As you can see, since 2015 we are inside the trading range period. It is wider than before and that probably due to the level of engagement of central banks in the markets.
After the elections SPX bounced from the Fast MA line and therefore didn't provide the bearish trigger... instead, it provided a bullish one with strong bullish reaction to the MA line.
Things look like we still have some more upside in SPX but it is limited. We are probably in a wide distribution phase and it'll end when SPX will close again below 2000 (below the Fast and 50 MA lines)
Read more about what's in store for 2017 in this week's newsletter (link in signature)
Short article on USDCADUSDCAD, 1 Hour.
Elliott Wave - suggests corrective waves (we're basically at the end of the B leg at the time I'm writing this), it might form an advanced pattern to go short. But nothing is complete yet, I'll update this topic when I see changes in the market.
News - RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) as well as other banks changed their mortgage rate (they actually increased it) and investors might not like this, causing a small devaluation of the canadian dollar. According to these news, the pair would do a upward move.
USDollar - We can also see that the US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) is going up and almost touched a 14-year old high today (November 16th). So theorically, the value of the USD is increasing, and the value of the CAD is decreasing a little bit.
I might go for a short-term LONG position, from B to a little bit higher than A, than take profit (SL just below 5). But to be honest, with the USD going up and CAD going down, I think the currency rate won't be so good for Canadians. (USD/CAD going up on a long-term).
Testing trading range lows$EURUSD suffered great losses last week as the Dollar Index (DXY) broke above the 100$ price zone with Yellen's help.
Now the Dollar Index is testing the monthly 61.8 Fibonacci level (102$) and $EURUSD is testing 2015 lows - The bottom of a weekly trading range.
The harmonic pattern hasn't been violated yet and X will be tested as well.
Focus Zone - 1.05-1.06
Potential target zones - 1.075 and 1.08
Is the EURUSD going to be a good buy towards 2017?
Read more about this setup and more in this week's newsletter (link in signature)
Dollar RallyEven with the disappointing unemployment claims release today, the overall trend of unemployment claims is on a downwards trend which supports continuous jobs creation and thus the case of a rate hike by the Fed in December. The dollar rally is likely set to retest the yearly high at 12,300.
Friendly Unique Forex Reminder to NOT Trade TodayHi there fellow traders, I hope you are all having a great day and a profitable week thus far. This week has been a rough week to trade with all the major economic news events. Last nights the BOJ announced their interest rate decision which they left unchanged and now today we have the interest rate decision from the FED. It is expected that they will leave rates unchanged and therefore the statement will be key. Depending on the view of the FED, hawkish or dovish, will ultimately push the markets. That all being said, it is a complete crap shoot. It is likely that the FED will remain hawkish, but we just never know. As traders it is our goal to facilitate an edge in the markets where the odds sway in our favor. By attempting to trade the FED interest rate decision you are attempting to trade during market conditions where the odds are overwhelmingly against you; that is gambling. Don't be a gambler... be a trader..
We suggest you turn off the computer and get outside. Enjoy the day!
THE BUND IS READY FOR A CRASH! HIGH PROBABILITY!RESISTANCE LEVELS:
168,25 - 168,75
SUPPORT LEVELS:
160,90 - 161,40
155,75
148,7 - 149,20
EXPLANATION:
The Central Bank is trying to keep Rates at record low to stimulate the economy. How hard they will try this will never never work, there is always and end. Also to this! The Trend will change at some point!
It seems that this will not take a very long time before it will crash and the Trend will change. The signals are verry clear!
We are looking on a Weekly chart, this gives some room to look in a larger/ longer term perspective. What we see here is that we are moving in a WIG this means that the range is narrowing and the Price will make a hugh move 10 - 12 percent when the Trendline is broken. It is supported by the Indicators that show NEGATIVE divergence .
THE KEY LEVEL TO WATCH IS; 166 . When this level breaks, then much lower prices can be expected. First move has some room to 149!
GOLD POSSIBLE PATHWAY FOR NEXT MONTH1318-1327 swing is possible, but I'm also expecting a drop to 1305 in a few days (maybe even today). I'll long if it bounces from 1300 and put TP to.. well, sky is the limit ;) Nevertheless, I'll have my SL at 1295 because I suspect price might go for 0,618 which is 1297.
If it breaks 1297 downwards, then 1275 gets on the table and I'll be cautious arond those levels. GL to you all.