USDJPY Inverted Cup and Handle Again? March 20-24 Trading PlanFX:USDJPY broke the 50DMA once again and looking bearish in my opinion. The breakdown and downtrend is also supported by the moving averages on the hourly timeframes.
Don't have any big positions as I expected it to retest the 114 breakdown level but it didn't happen
4H Timeframe View:
FX:USDJPY tried to break the 200MA but it failed and continued its downtrend breaking the 113 support
1H Timeframe View:
Looks like its consolidating after the 113 breakdown but I wouldn't discount a possible pullback to retest the 113 level and it would be a great short level if the downtrend continues.
Preferred Entry: 112.9-113
Stop: 113.3
Profit: 111.6
But there is also a possibility that it would stay on this level until it once again breaks down. If that was the case then we can simply wait for either the 20MA(red line) or the 50MA(yellow line) on the 1H timeframe to reach the price and short it at the level if it doesnt break above it.
If the 111.6 profit target is reached, we can take partial profits or move stops to profit as its possible FX:USDJPY will bounce on this area as it has done multiple times in the past or finally break that daily support
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
RATE
Make XAUUSD Great Again! March 20-24 Trading PlanOANDA:XAUUSD has broken out of the downtrend after the 1260 rejection and with hourly timeframe moving averages confirming the trend change. Bulls are still in the game and it looks like it will have another try against the Wall of Trump resistance.
No big positions as of yet as I expected a pullback that didn't materialize and it consolidated for 2 days straight after the FOMC breakout.
4H Timeframe View:
OANDA:XAUUSD is sitting just right above the 200MA and its looking to be a firm support for the next upmove
1H Timeframe View:
OANDA:XAUUSD is forming higher lows after the FOMC breakout which suggests buyer strength. The 1230 level/20DMA is still acting as a resistance but as long as the current momentum continues it will be great to take a long position if there will be a short pullback to the 1206-1207 level and if the said level holds.
Preferred Entry: 1226-1227.5
Stop: 1223
Profit 1260
Just in case the level doesn't hold, we can look for a pullback till the 1219-1220 and take a long position if it holds.
Preferred Entry: 1219-1220
Stop: 1216
Profit 1260
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Dollar Index Daily ChartThe dollar index on the daily chart you can see that we are now in a key area where it is testing resistance from February and November 2015, due to recent results from the US raising interest rates this has caused concern for investors and we have seen a big sell off, I believe we may see a big sell off again after the pullback to 99.26 0.382 fib or even gain strength and break back through the 0.236 fib at 101.00 and then break resistance as shown in the chart.
Euro-Bund big correctionEuro-Bund starts to have more corrective moves.
The last week Euro-Bund correction add some strength to Euro against most of currencies.
If the price of Euro-Bund continue to fall, we may see more strength in the Euro.
Euro-Bund is challenging a major support levels.
A bigger drop or a massive correction of Euro-Bund, may even put pressure on ECB to revise the Interest Rate.
XAUUSD VS The Wall of Trump and Moving Averages Round 2: HAMMER!FX_IDC:XAUUSD now has a bullish daily hammer courtesy of Janet Yellen after being rejected from 1260 level. If the bullish momentum continues then FX_IDC:XAUUSD might have the weapon it needs to break that wall and the cluster of moving averages but it needs to get back to the fight.
Entry: 1229.02
SL: 1227(Moved to 1229.5)
TP: (tp1) 1246 (tp2) 1251 (tp3) 1260
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
EURUSD UncertaintyCurrently, the sentiment of the pair seems to be clearly inclined to a down movement of the price. But we should rather wait until Friday to find out more about what will be the real direction of the pair.
Note that the US is strongly considering a hike in interest rate which can cause the USD to grow much stronger.
However, the France is currently on crosshead of most European traders. Le pen is one step ahead against his opponent. Her winning the presidential election will be crucial for the Euro and combined with the increase in the FED Interest rate we can almost definitely conclude that the EURUSD pair will undergo a downfall.
AUDUSD pivotFREE FOOD
"Fed on course to raise interest rates at an upcoming meeting: Yellen" -Reuters
This means that the US dollar will appreciate again by around 300 points after the decision.Now seems to be the good time to go long usd. Personally i believe that the AUDUSD is overvalued and should be in the range of 0.65 and 0.7 in the years of 2017/2018 ,but thanks to the rising commodity prices and Donald Trumps fear mongering protectionist policies the aussie dollar stayed clear on the course and has appreciated from falling to 0.72 from 0.75 from the December FED interest rate rate.
NZD/USD downtrend developingHello,
NZD/USD downtrend taking shape, price is pulling back, will look for short position as soon as pull back momentum will decrease, probably rejecting 50 EMA and 0.382 fib, even though given the current acceleration I'd say it could even reach 0.5 or 0.618, while waiting for Fed's rate hike.
Either way keep your eyes peeled and be ready to get in the trend!
Price behavior patterns - Long term analysis Looking back since 1995 we see clear price behavior pattern in SPX:
1. Smooth and steady climbing of the Index throughout years.
2. Just before a major reversal we see a price action widening and choppiness increase.
3. Bearish reversal following a close below the Fast MA line.
As you can see, since 2015 we are inside the trading range period. It is wider than before and that probably due to the level of engagement of central banks in the markets.
After the elections SPX bounced from the Fast MA line and therefore didn't provide the bearish trigger... instead, it provided a bullish one with strong bullish reaction to the MA line.
Things look like we still have some more upside in SPX but it is limited. We are probably in a wide distribution phase and it'll end when SPX will close again below 2000 (below the Fast and 50 MA lines)
Read more about what's in store for 2017 in this week's newsletter (link in signature)
Short article on USDCADUSDCAD, 1 Hour.
Elliott Wave - suggests corrective waves (we're basically at the end of the B leg at the time I'm writing this), it might form an advanced pattern to go short. But nothing is complete yet, I'll update this topic when I see changes in the market.
News - RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) as well as other banks changed their mortgage rate (they actually increased it) and investors might not like this, causing a small devaluation of the canadian dollar. According to these news, the pair would do a upward move.
USDollar - We can also see that the US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) is going up and almost touched a 14-year old high today (November 16th). So theorically, the value of the USD is increasing, and the value of the CAD is decreasing a little bit.
I might go for a short-term LONG position, from B to a little bit higher than A, than take profit (SL just below 5). But to be honest, with the USD going up and CAD going down, I think the currency rate won't be so good for Canadians. (USD/CAD going up on a long-term).
Testing trading range lows$EURUSD suffered great losses last week as the Dollar Index (DXY) broke above the 100$ price zone with Yellen's help.
Now the Dollar Index is testing the monthly 61.8 Fibonacci level (102$) and $EURUSD is testing 2015 lows - The bottom of a weekly trading range.
The harmonic pattern hasn't been violated yet and X will be tested as well.
Focus Zone - 1.05-1.06
Potential target zones - 1.075 and 1.08
Is the EURUSD going to be a good buy towards 2017?
Read more about this setup and more in this week's newsletter (link in signature)
Dollar RallyEven with the disappointing unemployment claims release today, the overall trend of unemployment claims is on a downwards trend which supports continuous jobs creation and thus the case of a rate hike by the Fed in December. The dollar rally is likely set to retest the yearly high at 12,300.
Friendly Unique Forex Reminder to NOT Trade TodayHi there fellow traders, I hope you are all having a great day and a profitable week thus far. This week has been a rough week to trade with all the major economic news events. Last nights the BOJ announced their interest rate decision which they left unchanged and now today we have the interest rate decision from the FED. It is expected that they will leave rates unchanged and therefore the statement will be key. Depending on the view of the FED, hawkish or dovish, will ultimately push the markets. That all being said, it is a complete crap shoot. It is likely that the FED will remain hawkish, but we just never know. As traders it is our goal to facilitate an edge in the markets where the odds sway in our favor. By attempting to trade the FED interest rate decision you are attempting to trade during market conditions where the odds are overwhelmingly against you; that is gambling. Don't be a gambler... be a trader..
We suggest you turn off the computer and get outside. Enjoy the day!