Get started

RATE

DATA VIEW: CURRENT AND PERSPECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATERecent expectations in the media regarding Federal Reserve rate hike look a bit overblown. What the Fed is actually planning to raise is the Target Range for the Effective Federal Funds Rate. The Effective rate, however, now trades firmly below the upper border of the range (0.25%), signalling no actual pressure to raise the Target Range. The nature of this phenomenon is examined in detail in a 2009 NY Fed paper "Mechanics of a Graceful Exit" (www.newyorkfed.org) One of the key conclusions from the paper is a proposition that there is just not enough demand for Federal Funds on the market to push the Effective Rate closer to the upper band of the Target Range. It is thus very likely that the "rate hike", if there is any, will have only "media hype" effect on financial markets, while the Effective Rate can even trade below the new Target Range for some time.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by Killy_Mel
USDJPY Short - Poor US Data Abounds, Risk Aversion Vibes Update 1: SL was a little too tight. In reality SHort is still in play. SLs can't be moved on TradingView. Update 2: TP was hit at 121.423 Technical Factors: I like the Tweezer Tops on H4. The pair is currently trading below the 200,100 and 50 SMA. They are now dyniamic levels of Resistance. H1 has a number of rejection candlesticks off 122.900 (current pivot); This is around middleground of the the 50%-61.8% Fib retracement level of the previous bear move from 123.700 to 121.830 . Fundamental Factors: US Jobs Data was poor. ISM data was poor today as well. Tomorrow's trade balance is also expected to be lower, according to Bloomberg analysts' survey. This may dampen positivity on early rate hike expectations. Greece is potentially giving us a risk-off scenario that usually strengthens the JPY. Targets Price is below 122.900 Pivot and downside targets are preferred. Target is 121.400. Stop is tight at 35 or so Pips. Risks: The USD's Safe Haven status may make it an attractive prospect as Grexit fears loom and US Stocks devalue (7th July Monday Intraday) thus it may rise as USD demand increases. It is difficult to identify a true risk aversion scenario.
Short
by SimplePhi
2
DOWI: Toward a formation of a double top?The ichimoku chart shows that DOWI will go a little bit on the upside, but indicators show that there isn't a lot of room left on the upside. Tenkan Kijun twist may occur inside the cloud wich would announce a soft upside. Having an eye on the Kumo cloud and particularly on the next days show that there is a twist and confirme a reversal, at least a correction on the downside in the coming days. Therefore, if DOWI reaches 17080 or around on the upside, this may very much be a double top. This would then suggesgtthat the neck line is at 16333 and after a little upside correctio, the index may go down until 16000 or 15800. Having said that, bare in mind that 1-FED didn't decide yet to increase its interest rate. 2- There is still cheap money in the market. Therefore, the correction process is a fact, but we are not yet in a Bear market although this may happen sooner or later.
DJ:DJI
by Pashabxl
1
EURUSD: 4 Candle left before ECB Announcement. In principale market has already priced ECB interst rate decision i.e to lower the interest rate and refi rate to negatif. Therefore is no decision is taken, Eur will jump high against USD. If the decision of ECB is limited to interst rate cut, then, there may be a swift move down to 1.355 or even bellow to 1.352 but the buyers will come back on the market, because decreasing interest rate will not be enough for the market. European QE is not yet on the table even if this issue has been discussed by EU memberstates and ECB officials. Therefore, on a medium term, EUR may move again upside towards a more realistic level i.e 1.385 or even a little bit higher before any genuine intervention o nthe market of ECB. We are not a heart beat away, but just 4 candle away from ECB PResident Mario Draghi's press conference. LEt's wait and see
by Pashabxl
1