Central bank bros met traders’ loftiest expectations with a half-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday. But is that too good to be true and maybe even a signal of some problems with the US economy and looming fears over at the Fed? Trading today isn’t the same as trading yesterday. Even though prices don’t really confirm it — there wasn’t a super-duper rally...
THE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in...
FOMC + Rate cuts in T-minus 3 Hrs EST. Blue box = Bullish stocks / weak dxy 20,200 levels towards ATH Red box = Bearish stocks/ strong dxy 18,300 levels towards last correction Current price: 19468 Pick a pill...
Massive 6% move up today for Bitcoin in anticipation for a 50 bps rate cut tomorrow. CRYPTOCAP:BTC smashed through the 50D MA and back into the BMSB. However don’t be fooled; we are still very much in a downtrend as you see the 50MA is well below the 200MA. We could see price break through the BMSB and reject from the 200MA in the next 48 hours. There’s...
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision is teetering on a knife’s edge, with the odds of a significant cut climbing. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the chances of a 25 or 50-basis-point reduction are now evenly split at 50-50. The decision from the cental bank comes in on Wednesday. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley, speaking last week,...
Last weeks high: $59,829.20 Last weeks low: $52,551.34 Midpoint: $56,190.27 More sell-off last week in the crypto markets, very tough market conditions continue, hitting the $52,000 bullish OB+ again, the first time being exactly one month before. This area had held as support previously but it needs to hold this time around too, failing that $50,000 is the...
2007-2008 rate cut timeline in multiple instruments : SPX : RUS2000: NAS100: US Wall Street 30 : DXY : XAUUSD :
TLT bullish trend into 100 resistance with major Fed decisions coming in the next weeks/months. Has a gap to fill on the way to highest pt Pts are 98.30, 98.70, and 100+ - Shifted narrative from inflation to labor market - Data suggests Fed is very behind the curve - Jackson Hole - FOMC
I am Seeing a price crash and "V-Shape" recovery in the cards for the SUI price chart. Diamond pattern formation will break to the downside for a measured move down to the 1.618 fib extension. Fed emergency rate cut will reverse the markets back upwards into the US Elections. Lower buy target @ or around 0.272
Traders, Just a quick preview of what I expect for the week ahead and maybe the next few weeks?
DXY can see some correction to the upside and reach 102.5 or even climb up to 103.5 before September 18, 2024, which, most probably we'll see the first rate cut after a long time. So be patient and wait for this week's NFP. Check out my post on June 11 to see how DXY followed our yellow scenario. 😉
TBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of...
Are we heading toward recession? To answer this question, I'm pulling the recession prediction indicator based on GDP provided by FED (ticker:JHGDPBRINKDX) which is the purple color on the bottom chart. It shows that we are on fairly low probability of recession (around 4%) as of end of Aug 2024. The FED indicates it will cut rate on end of Sep 2024. However, if...
Markets have rebounded sharply after last week's fear-driven decline. Despite this, rate cuts are still anticipated in the upcoming FOMC meetings. Changes in monetary policy often benefit some sectors over others, providing investors a chance to adjust their portfolio allocations accordingly. This paper delves into a comparative analysis of sectors around...
The market has been desperately waiting for a FED rate cut for nearly a year now. We have not received one yet even with the recent flash crash in the market. Despite calls for an emergency rate cut after the crash we didn't get one. Why not? Why is that a good thing? The Fed does not cut rates out of the kindness of their hearts They cut rates only they...
No important economic data from US this week, only trade balance and initial claims to observe on Tue and Thu respectively. US stock market continued decline on Fri, following weakening labor market conditions and earnings from big tech companies last week. In expectations of rate cut, big shots are reducing portfolios. The situation may last until we actually...
There is no denying the last few months in crypto have been frustrating to say the least. With a brutal seemingly endless chop despite some very bullish events such as the halving, BTC & ETH ETFs, institutional interest and buying, presidential candidates in support of the industry etc. Bitcoin still struggles to break and stay above its '21 ATH @ $69,000. For...
Been watching for a reversal of the trend between the 2 indexes and a breakout of this bullish falling wedge for a while. Fundamentally it made sense to look for this breakout result because of the looming interest rate cuts and frothy bond yields since the start of the year. Small caps are highly sensitive to such things. Long IWM or TNA is the play on this...