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NZDUSD Likely To Decline Further Towards 61 Cents! Have a look at the snapshot above. It represents the nearby support and resistance levels on monthly TF of NZDUSD. A convincing close of monthly candle below 0.64000 would likely confirm probable bearish continuation until 0.61000 where the next support lies. Looking at the main chart, there is a nice descending channel continuation! Should the monthly candle and this week's candle close below 0.64000 we can take this pair SHORT to target 0.61000 level. The fundamental outlook too is against the KIWI as global slowdown due to trade war is affecting the KIWI. With the Tradewar far from over and RBNZ leaning towards slashing rates again to boost the economy, a visit to 0.61000 is highly likely. This just represents my outlook on this pair, shall a trade opportunity arise i will post it in a new thread.
Short
by FX618Analysis
3
FED Rate Cut Outlook & TradeWar May Take SAFEHAVEN YEN TO 105.00INSTANT ENTRY AT AROUND: 107.350 LEVEL POSITION TYPE: SHORT STOP LOSS: 109.500 TAKE PROFIT: 105.00 RR: 1:1 SHALL THERE BE ANY UPDATES I WILL PROVIDE THEM IN THE THREAD BELOW. BENEATH YOU CAN FIND THE ANALYSIS BEHIND THIS TRADE SETUP As seen from the main chart, the weekly TF shows the price respected by a long term held triangle (black lines). The blue line represents another concrete trendline which was broken as the weekly candle closed comfortably outside the trendline. As of now the next support that lies is present at 105.00 level where the main triangle's lower trendline is present. So we can expect the price to make its way to that level in the coming weeks. On the fundamental perspective, the prospect of US interest rate cut has already sent the greenback tumbling against all major currencies. USDJPY is the most sensitive pairs of them all. Inevitably the FED would cut the interest this year and it might be two times potentially! although this event has not been priced in at 100% in the markets, the coming weeks may seem to reveal further USD weakness as the prospect of eventual rate cut gets priced in! Additionally, the trade war is not helping the greenback either against the yen, as any negative news or developments seems to favor traders rushing for safehaven yen. As said the coming weeks are crucial and will show clear picture as to where the price headed but at the moment the technical and fundamental picture are both in our favor.
Short
by FX618Analysis
Swiss Franc(CHF) to fall ahead! With ECB committed to ease in September, pressure is increasing on SNB to further cut rates towards minus 1 percent from current minus 0.75%. CHF has appreciated considerably as a safe haven move recently making higher possibility of intervention by SNB. chart structure has started to favor fall in Swiss franc in coming weeks. Further looking at SMI 20 strong bounces on dip support that franc is going down by SNB actions ahead. It makes high interest rate currencies good buy against chf... USDCHF, CADCHF, AUDCHF, NZDCHF and GBPCHF may remain bid and shall be accumulated on dips for solid gains in coming weeks.
Long
by Bitbloxx
Opportunity Knocks For The NZDJPYWith global equities continuing to be supported by favorable liquidity conditions and little else, it was really just a matter of time before risk assets came under more pressure. The biggest red flag was flying in the bonds market, where global bonds have continued to rally sending yields sharply lower. Equities rallying strong along with bonds is not sustainable, and considering slowing global growth, trade conflicts, and political unrest risk assets have appeared the most vulnerable. The constant flows into bonds highlights the increasing uncertainty and demand for safety. The current equities decline started when the Fed disappointed doves with only a 25bp cut, delivered with a neutral statement. The decline was accelerated by news of new tariffs that will be imposed on China by the Trump administration. This sparked a sell off of risk assets, and flows into safe havens such as JPY and CHF. The USD missed the boat this go around partly due to the unwinding of the EURUSD carry trade caused by the quick spike in volatility. There were also some EM factors that contributed to the USD decline, but those are outside the scope of what we are trying to convey here. After all, we are here for the NZDJPY. NZD is a high beta currency strongly tied to the performance of the global economy. It is also directly impacted by the US-China trade conflict, just like its cousin the AUD. Today the RBNZ surprised the market by cutting 50bp (market was expecting 25bp). Soft inflation expectations wiped out any positive the currency picked up on strong employment figures yesterday, business confidence remains very poor, and the RBNZ has even floated the idea of unconventional monetary policy. All of these things should keep the NZD weak over the medium term. On the technical side, we have now traded through key monthly support, which should now serve as a barrier for any rally attempts. Over the coming months we are looking for continued declines towards 65.00 and then 62.00.
Short
by ChrisMathis
1
Fed action further distanced SP500 from 3000This is a follow up to GAMS' first post. The Fed's 25bps cut, coupled with hawkish verbiage, added more weight to the already dwindling American corporate earnings and further confirmed GAMS's bearish view towards the rest of 2019. Strong USD will create strong headwind to heavy-weight components in SP500 like MSFT, AAPL, etc who rely heavily on foreign revenues. As corporate earnings start to take a nose dive as it is about to now, the Fed wouldn't have any ammunition to turn the tide any more. GAMS is extremely bearish with USD and SPX, in the medium to long term. We see GLD, JPY and long UST duration as safe havens in this environment. To express above views, GAMS had entered below strategies. 1. Bull put spread on GLD, 132/152, Dec2019 exp. This creates upfront credit 2. Credit from leg 1 to buy TLT 3. Monthly TLT Covered Call 4. ITM put on SPY, Dec2019 exp.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by WhatsTrading
EURO LONG NOW OR NEVERAs far as risk goes you have to.. for the biscuit. We see Multiple technical confluences surrounding the 1.1170 handle with an X marks the spot scenario. Quarterly chart implies a continuation of the long term up trend for the pair. We are sitting around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and have support from an ascending and descending trendline. With the possible US rate cut later this week we could have the catalyst needed to get the ball rolling. With a 50bp cut the EUR/USD could be sent back above the 1.1300 handle by the monthly close on Wednesday. Speculatively we are looking for the 1.3900 handle being respected at some point in 2020. The 1.1700 handle will be met by the end of the year.
Long
by zenithmarkets
USDCAD Long Term Downside SetupUSDCAD Weekly chart gives us an indication of overall price momentum to the downside as price has retested the weekly resistance zone of 1.35200. Overall a break in upwards channel from 1.34150 has seen USDCAD sustain its shorts over the last 3weeks. After a break - Price will usually form a pullback/consolidation zone. Perfect for re-entries. A Weekly Pullback from Support Zone of 1.30200 has encountered yet another wall of weekly resistance of 1.31500. Weekly Depicted Below Daily Chart gives us a bearish flag continuation pattern with ideal swing target set at 1.25000 See below D1 Down to the 4HR Chart, a huge range of consolidation confirms our higher time frame bias on going short on USDCAD Overall . It is important to note that the only driver of higher CAD prices could indeed be fundamental news/ lower OIL prices. Fundamentally CAD sees itself losing steam gained against the USD as FED may hold true of cutting rates.
Short
by HuracanFX
Monthly TF Perspective Of Yellow Metal. Door Open to Test 1550!This is a monthly TF analysis of the yellow metal. The main chart shows numerous horizontal lines, these are concrete support and resistance levels taken from monthly charts. This year many people predicted the yellow metal to break out of its long term held range and it happened! After 1370 level was broken, the next hurdle was present at 1430 which held against a very bullish pressure from the yellow metal. So in short 1430 is not a new resistance just formed! it has been held on numerous occasions and broken too. Therefore from a technical perspective GOLD is still indeed bullish however just to be safe, it is advisable for the monthly candle to close above 1430.00 before going LONG to target 1550 where the next resistance is present Any trade deal between US and China if agreed it could take the yellow metal down where another long term held ascending trendline is present. Until this trendline is not broken we are still bullish on gold! Another thing to consider is that at the moment the price is confined in a triangle practically preventing the price from further climbing. Should a strong bullish candle close above 1430 this would not only confirm resistance break but also the triangle/trendline break too. Fundamentally, the factors are in favour of yellow metal appreciation! First of all the tradewar is having effects on the economy and many central banks have started to cut rates with the FED thinking of cutting rates too and turning dovish in a surprising manner in the last couple of FOMC meeting. Fear of recession are also alive and well as the US yield curve has inverted again. In this classic scenario the safe haven currencies such as CHF and JPY appreciate but so does GOLD Therefore it remains to be seen what develops in the coming months but a test of 1550 level is very much on the cards!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by FX618Analysis
1
FED's Easing Cycle Has Opened Path for DXY To HIT 93.00 Level !For the last several months we have seen the USD rise against all major currencies and while this was happening we were technically starting to get warning signs of BEARISH DIVERGENCE in the RSI! Fundamentally the US Economy remained strong back then with little worries regarding the trade war and geopolitical issues. The markets thought that the economy wont be impacted by the trade war in a long run as a trade deal could be reached soon but its been months and the saga still goes on. The US economic data has been under achieving and the FED instead of raising rates to a possible two times this year has switched its course to cutting them. A MAJOR DOVISH SWITCH! As this happened, the USD Index fell from the highs and has now comfortably broken the triangle's lower trendline and the weekly price has also closed below the EMA 50. All this indicates a strong trend switch is now in play and we could see the price potentially drop towards 93.00 where the next trendline is present. 93.00 also is a concrete support drawn from the monthly charts which has been respected on numerous occasions. As the time goes, the picture will be more clear and clear but one thing is clear, FED's easing cycle will surely be the main driver for DXY downfall to 93.00! Many predicted that the yellow metal will rise this year and boy they were not wrong as many major central banks have switched to easing cycle. Should the FED keep easing to support the economy we could see the yellow metal reach new highs and SAFEHAVEN FX currencies such CHF and JPY Appreciate against other currencies.
TVC:DXYShort
by FX618Analysis
1
EURUSD Might Attempt An Up Move to 1.14! A LONG TRADE SETUPENTRY AT AROUND: 1.12600 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 1.12000 TAKE PROFIT: 1.14000 RR: 1:1 On technical perspective the triangle has broken out and the price has retraced for us to go LONG here. The triangle breakout confirms that EURUSD is starting to consolidate and aim towards the weekly 50 EMA. With all the rate cut news going on and the US economy slowing, it should help this PAIR reach the 1.14000 in the near future. shall there be any updates i will update them below. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis