On the margin RBA remained in line with previous meetings, adding little but still keeping it on the dovish side imo. Once again, as in previous minutes (and from several other central banks) RBA continued to communicate the necessity of "watching key data" to drive future policy decisions. Interestingly though, they also mentioned the negative impact of a strong...
Short NZDUSD based on low CPI/ inflation = an RBNZ OCR cut is 90% likely - 105 mins after market open at 23:45GMT NZD releases their June CPI print. - In all RBNZ mandates they reiterate how they consider CPI to be their "main/ sole" target or dictator of the monetary policy they set (check any of their minutes etc). - Their target is 2%, plus recently they...
As expected BOE stood pat on their rate decision reiterating much of which was said last week by Gov M. Carney, the need for more analysis to be done is/ was key - " "Detailed Analysis" of All Policy Options Required" and "Extent Of Additional Stimulus Will Depend on August Forecasts". IMO the notes were very bearish and almost but 100% chance of some sort of...
Short NZDUSD is in my top 2 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. NZD is considered the riskiest G10 currency cross, so NZD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit occurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for NZD due...
Today, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said a rate cut is needed after the Brexit vote and hinted that it could come as soon as this summer! This news got the FTSE and the DAX flying up to nearly 300 points. Also, the Feds stated this week that they may cut rates this summer as well, possibly even this month (July) so that is really great news for global...
Bolstered by a rally in commodities, improved manufacturing data and employment levels in Australia, the economy is doing very well. In fact, it has been the best performing economy among developed nations outside Europe. However, the appreciating AUD is undermining this strong economic performance, dragging the country down and hampering growth. It is in the...
This Wednesday we have RBNZ's Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement. Will this news event give the signal for a bearish move to sub 0.7 levels? I can see price do a number of things by Wednesday. Already anticipating bad NZD news and break lower to 0.6680 region slowly moving towards the lower trend line which then breaks upon the news Staying around...
Strong channel breakout with decent volume. Beginning of multi-year uptrend?