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Ratehike

My Idea on FOMC USD rate hike decision for EURUSDSo the time is coming, this is the last chance for the FED to demonstrate that the US economy is strong enough to withhold an interest rate hike and continue to show improvements. there are many political and idealogical factors behind this decision and this is a worry to investors and speculators that think this rate hike should not go ahead and that is only happening because of NON economical influences. lets see first, prior to the 16th meeting >>> the pair could well continue its bullish momentum, revisiting the high of 1090 and even penetrating all the way to the 1200 area where the down trend of this year has been established. also prior to the result and news release, some big brokers and desks will take positions to ensure they have enough liquidity to provide dollars to those who will buy it, so this will produce a few big EUR orders. Take a look at the CME options expiring at the NY cut, this will give you a good idea of what level is the market expecting. WITHIN THE MEETING/DECISION the key word here is VOLATILITY, while traders and brokers decide whether the statement is hawkish or dovish, you will probably see some spikes up and down as they hedge/cover and close their positions currently open. no one will open brand new positions during the event unless is to cover their large contracts to prevent losses here is when you need to be careful with your SL, if this is hit during the event then stay out until you can clearly asses the decision. bear in mind that experts analysts have great tools that electronically analyse the statement and is capable to identify different words and highlight this for the banks so their capacity of response is going to be pretty big nevertheless unlimited. AFTER THE DECISION here is when new positions will be opened, as liquidity returns and new players enter the market, big banks will look to find out how the decision affects their long term outcome and new positions could be undertaken over the next few days. looking at where the initial spike ends up you can get an idea if the outcome was scenario A B or C but still.. this may not probe to be the case and the pair may reverses within a few days of the initial euphoric move. SO IN SUMMARy - Prior to the event, keep an eye on positioning - during the event, volatility could kill your positions, ensure you are covered - after the event, reach the same conclusion than the big traders is essential, load yourself up with good news provider - if you are not sure, or you have no capital, or you feel insecure about trading in historic events, please do not trade this event. HAPPY TRADING HAPPY XMAS! any questions, please ask below :)
by SolidSnake
1
Gold Surprises as Dollar Gets Monkey-Hammered LowerIn " Gold Leaps Higher as Worries Mount ," I briefly pointed out how those very same institutions that championed quantitative easing policies implemented by the Federal Reserve are now coming out to proclaim quantitative easing added no substantial benefit to the real economy . Gold was pushed lower on the assumption that central banking policy would all pan out and that the U.S. would finally achieve escape velocity; but the exact opposite is occurring. Despite the near 12 to 16 months of absolutely horrendous, even recessionary data, market participants believed that if the Fed began to tighten monetary policy then the economy must be alright. Central bankers,misguided by classroom academics and abhorrent to real world economic dynamics, believe that if you tinker with interest rates that somehow inflation will magically begin to rise. Not so because it is real, meaningful growth that produces inflation; and it is more evident now that the these policies do not produce meaningful growth. I mapped out the dollar's downward trajectory, which was largely based on the floundering economy and the inability for the Fed to take action that will pop asset inflation. I still believe this is based on the above factors and that the dollar will likely gather strength as the US slips into deflation. Traders and CNBC pundits think that if deflation takes hold then gold will surely decline into the abyss. And just like their "lower gas prices equal booming consumer spending" myth, gold falling off a cliff during deflation is just as preposterous. Gold is unique in that if can act like an insurance policy against both sides of tail risk (inflation and deflation). It is well-known that gold had a massive bull run when stagflation took hold of the US during the 1970s. Inflation ran amok. However, nobody mentions that gold tripled, in inflation-adjusted dollar terms, during the early 1930s (the Great Depression) prior to President Roosevelt outlawing the private ownership of gold. As I wrote last April: " There is an assumption that the dollar and gold’s performance is strictly inverse of one another, but that is not so. The WGC (World Gold Council) indicates that between early 2014 and March 20, 2015, the dollar has gained over 20 percent while gold only fell 1.2 percent. Historically, gold prices more than double on a weak dollar than it falls on a stronger dollar. Thus, a stronger dollar is not indicative of massive gold depreciation. When the dollar declines, gold has appreciated 14.9 percent. Yet, when the dollar strengthens, gold has only fallen by 6.5 percent, according to the WGC. " If you look at this chart, you will notice one thing: gold sure looks to trend with the SPX. There is an argument that this due to simple asset inflation. Notice the massive divergence began when gold began to top in 2011. The divergence is what I call the "perception" gap. I expect that divergence to close. It's no secret that I was right about the volatility of 2015, along with other key macro trends. I believe by the end of 2016 and 2017 is when the real fireworks begin. Gold's recent move has been huge, and, of course, there will be profit taking. But those who follow me know that the underlying fundamentals for gold has been strengthening for some time. (Note: the gold chart is the same I used in the above mentioned gold idea, but the minor uptrend (along with new resistance) were added). Please follow me @lemieux_26 and check out my other ideas, which have links to previous writings.
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
11
GBPUSD: Potential weekly downtrend spottedWe have an interesting trade setting up in GBPUSD. The time at mode signal points to an intermediate term decline to 1.4222, that can extend to 1.39366. What's interesting about it is that the resistance above very strong and that the signal generates close to the expected Fed rate hike week. I think we might get a fill this week, and if the trade works, it will be a very sharp selloff. For assistance managing positions and entering without having to do the work, you can check out my Zulutrade page in my profile, I'll be sending trades through it from now on for convenience. Seems like a fair way for people to follow my trades without being forced to pay a fixed monthly fee (which only benefits the trader, who doesn't need to even profit from trades to make money! -red flag-). Follow me on twitter, I'll update charts here but not with trade management and trailing suggestions like before (I do need to pay bills :) ) Check out my recent TLT trade for an example of trade management. We will have few trades, but good ones if all goes as expected, the sharp selloff in the S&P500 was the start of a new trending enviroment possibly, and if that's the case, we can expect to see strong volatility, and sharp and wide trending legs for us to take. Cheers! Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
13
FED POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR EURUSD (Dec Meeting)Hi All! As I did back in August with the september meeting, I have decided to create a possibility of different Scenarios for the EURUSD pair for the month of December. I have outlined 3 scenarios based on the price range seen and recheable so far this year, this would give you a good idea of where to buy, sell or hold positions if you are thinking about trading in Dec. As ALWAYS! please be careful what you do, this is not for beginners but Im sure it would be a great time to try a few things with demo money as well. In a nutshell... IF THE FED RAISE THE RATES - the question here is not will you?, or, will your not? The question is, how much? and for how long? - investors will have to digest the FOMC minutes to make sure they understand how much the FED is prepared to raise and what is it going to be the path of increases. in every outcome there is an idea of what would happen if the rate hike is symbolic, when I say Symbolic I mean so small that is just to show they are taking some action but not enough to make Institutional investors change their mind about the Euro. IF THE FED HOLDS ON THE RATE HIKE - this would just take us to the same place we are at the moment, important to watch that pivot line (green) because we will continue to pass over and below this line for a long time and only the ECB decisions on the EURO QE purchasing program will decide what moves the pair (and puntualities like Greece, migrant crisis and also fundamental news) IF THE FED DECIDES TO LOWER THE RATES - this is the less of all outcomes, chances of this is nearly zero and this is why I havent mentioned it on the chart but there still a possibility, if this happens, forget about parity, the Euro and other majors would instantly take over the dollar and we could see levels we havent seen for 2-4 years. Crazy eh? well... we know central banks can be crazy (remember SNB flash crash begining this year) So... here we go, no only the action of increasing will move the market, but also how much is increased and for how long, watch out for inflation and unemployment as these will be the triggers. any questions? - ask me here or on my twitter account @SolidSnakeUk89
by SolidSnake
1
MACRO VIEW: IRX HINTS NO SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE BY FEDIRX (13-week treasury bill index) failed to hold above relevant highs of 0.07% and reverted back to hear-zero levels. Due to its correlation to Effective Fed Funds rate, IRX will serve as an expectations indicator of upcoming federal reserve rate hike Most likely reason of the lack of expectations regarding the rate hike in September is another leg of downtrend in oil happening currently, which will again drive US inflation towards zero and away from the FED's 2% targat (one of 2 key conditions of the perspective rate hike)
IShort
by Killy_Mel
Gold: Triangle still unresolved; Entry levels refinedThe US employment report was mixed. Payrolls posted a 215,000 jobs gain, around June's level, while analysts had expected 225,000. The previous number was upwardly revised to 231,000. The unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, while wage growth came out at 2.1% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in the previous month. According to a latest Reuters poll, the median probability for septermber rate hike estimated by US primary dealers is 60% vs 55% in June. The number for December meeting stands at 80%. 9 of 19 dealers expect two rate hikes this year. The short-term reaction has been very volatile, with violent swings in both directions. The price of Gold has tested both trendlines that form the Triangle pattern. There is a clear 5-wave advance that usually sets a new uptrend. The key support cluster is projected @1089. Our approach is to wait for a 4-hour candle to close either above 1099 to generate a buy signal; or below 1082 for a sell signal. While the intraday chart to the right suggests higher prices based on last swing's wave structure, the long-term trend is, obviously, down.
FX:XAUUSD
by Nickonomics
2
MACRO VIEW: 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD ON THE MOVE UPSince mid-July the 3-Month T-bill yield has been trending upwards on quarterly basis (broke out from the 1st standard deviation from 66-day mean amid expanding volatility) The yield is a choppy instrument, however current uptrend (if it holds) may actually signal Federal Reserve rate hike expectations by institutional market participants. 3-Month T-bill is closely correlated to the Effective Fed Funds Rate - and thus will move upwards significantly if there is truly a move in the Fed's key target rate.
FLong
by Killy_Mel
DATA VIEW: CURRENT AND PERSPECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATERecent expectations in the media regarding Federal Reserve rate hike look a bit overblown. What the Fed is actually planning to raise is the Target Range for the Effective Federal Funds Rate. The Effective rate, however, now trades firmly below the upper border of the range (0.25%), signalling no actual pressure to raise the Target Range. The nature of this phenomenon is examined in detail in a 2009 NY Fed paper "Mechanics of a Graceful Exit" (www.newyorkfed.org) One of the key conclusions from the paper is a proposition that there is just not enough demand for Federal Funds on the market to push the Effective Rate closer to the upper band of the Target Range. It is thus very likely that the "rate hike", if there is any, will have only "media hype" effect on financial markets, while the Effective Rate can even trade below the new Target Range for some time.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by Killy_Mel