Get started

Ratehike

Next BTC movement🔥 Agree?📈Bitcoin has followed this pattern 2 out of 2 times. In this idea, I will explain why Bitcoin is very likely to continue its rise instead of falling a third time. Are you ready to a PUMP? Write in the comment! Bitcoin has fallen every time after the false breakout of the key levels: 🔥$45800 - a drop by 40%. 🔥$31460 - a drop by 44%. 📊Fundamental reasons for Bitcoin's fall: 1️⃣ Cryptocurrency overbought by retail traders. 2️⃣ Terra Luna collapse. 3️⃣ SnP500 correction. 4️⃣ War in Ukraine. 5️⃣ High inflation. 🚩All of these 5 points caused not only Bitcoin but also the stock market to fall. But why the current situation is not the same? The false breakout of $23 000 key level farced BTC to fall to the $21k but i think that this is the end of the local correction. Only if the whales want to accumulate more BTC and take retailers sl they push BTC lower and make a relow of the $21k. After this BTC will be able to pump and we catch this pump also using my free trading strategies. 📊The reason for Bitcoin's pottential growth: 1️⃣ More than 60% of long-term cryptocurrency holders are at a loss and selling their crypto below the purchase price. 2️⃣ Bitcoin is down -75% from its highs. Historically, when Bitcoin fell 80-85% the fall of cryptocurrencies ended. With such a huge capitalization (about $500 billion), Bitcoin can no longer fall or rise that much. So a 75% drop could be the bottom. 3️⃣ The test of the previous ATH as a support. 4️⃣ The test of the 200 WMA which has historically been the bottom of the bear market. 5️⃣ Capitulation of the miners. 6️⃣ Buy signals on the Greenwhich✅indicator for BTC and Alt`s. This indicator has NEVER been wrong in identifying market dips. 7️⃣ A lot of retailers ans whales expect fall to $10-12k. The majority don`t earn at hte financial marets and in trading. 8️⃣ The more people use the same pattern, the worse it works. A false breakout of a key level after a consolidation probably won't work this time, since that's what most people expect. 9️⃣ A rate hike of 75 or 100 bp will have little or no effect on the cryptocurrency market, because all markets have been waiting for this rate hike for a long time. 🚩So the current situation is changing at the global economy and the crypto market. Bitcoin is not the same as it was half year or 1 year ago, now it`s much stronger. 🔥Write in the comment your thoughts on BTC? Will we see the new bottom or it`s pump soon to $31-35k? 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
by Yuriy_Bishko
9
Oil down post fed discussion Technical analysis: on the daily time frame oil has broken the down trend; and pulled back to test that area again. Also creating a double bottom as well. On the 2hr timeframe at around 98.00 oil is sitting at the neckline of a minor structure double bottom; also at the top of the demand zone. Waiting for confirmation to sell down into a pullback down to 96.00 area if it does not break the demand zone around 99.00. If it does break the price 99.00 wait for a retest then enter for the continuation buy to next resistance area $101.00 Fundamental: Fed decided to do an interest rate hike at 1300 of 75 basis points. The hike in interest rate brings on fears of a dent in fuel demand. Recession fears have also caused oil to fall for the past few weeks. Weekly jobless claims have hit five month highs which is signs the economy is not in good shape.
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn36761102
Stocks Range Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 is ranging near relative highs. We broke out into the 4000's, but fell short of 4009. Several red triangles on the KRI are confirming strong resistance at these higher levels. We have some support from 3909, and a break down could take us back to the mid 3800's, likely 3848 or so. A rally could test 4009 again. We expect the S&P to respect this range, and don't expect too much action from the FOMC today, as the markets have largely priced in a 75bps hike to combat inflation with a small probability of a 100bps rate hike, the largest hike since 1989 .
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Down-Trend Confirmed, Rejection and Drop to 7,500Strong Rejection from the Upper Resistance trendline Reconfirms DEscending Downtrend of Bitcoi/usdt. Projected Support Intersection at 7,500. Fundamental conditions are the root causes of the continuing bitcoin plunge 1 FED Rate Hikes cause strong Risk aversion of Institutionals and Investors, and rotation into Dollar Cash. 2 Continuing wave of BAnkrupcies of Crypt-Frauds, Crypto-schemes and Pyramids only Grows and adds to Bitcoin mistrust by inestors: LUNA. TERRA, Celsius, Voyager and that list grows daily. 3 Liquidation of 140,000 bitcoins from Mt Gox by Court authorities - and anxious owners biting at the bit to finally REALIZE their Profits after years of being unable to do so. Immediate selloff of a stash that is times bigger than the Musk selloff that caused winter collapse of the price from ATH. Emphasis: HUNDRED THOUSAND Bitcoins DUMPED ON the Market.
Short
by cure4virus
39
A Look at 30y US Bonds, Fed Fund Rate and InflationTreasuries are an intersting play right now. Depending on your home currencies it still might be a good moment to consider stocking up on them in your portfolio. Couple of notes looking at the chart. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate was shown to be around 4% (per June 15 '22 Summary of Economic Projections). The bond market had been signaling the need for FED fund rate hikes for some month already. Looking at it from a EUR buying perspective you can currently get 30Y treasuries at around 3.3% (2.75 - 3% nominal plus slightly stronger EUR at the time of writing yield with an ~5% lower price still. Forecasting a continued weak EUR and a top of the fund rate at around 4% these treasuries ought to be bound to rise latest in 2024. Newly issued bonds ought to be reaching 4% soon. If so those will be attractive too. It should be noted that there is no guarantee that the FED (nor the ECB) will be able to contain inflation or the starting recession. The EU is likely to be hit harder for both. That said the FEB may continue and we may end of up with much higher FED fund rate of above 4% (5%, 6%, .....). This scenario seems unlikely as such high interest rates would break the financial markets and econimies. It is to be noted that the FED's fund rate it approaching to be break a downward trend since 1984. On the chart the trend from 1988 has already been broken. This chart does give some indications of the dependencies of these three key figures. But one can easily spot that it is not a clear when X goes up then Y does too. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
TVC:US30YLong
by CarpeMomentum
That's why the Fed needs to stop hiking before a system collapseThis is a quite interesting chart showing a ratio (black trend-line) of the Interest Rate, 5Y Yield and Federal Debt trading within a Megaphone pattern since the 1990s. Its (Higher) Highs have naturally coincided with peaks in Rate Hikes (red trend-line). The last peak was on October 2018 and currently the ratio just broke within that range again (red area). This shows that the Fed is on a timer and has only limited time to act and stop hiking before they jeopardize collapsing a system that is in place for three decades now and brings balance to the market. The S&P500 (blue trend-line) has seen great periods of growth and stability systemically with this in place as long as the Fed doesn't go off limits with hiking. Do you also think its time they act now and stop or at least ease this round of hiking before total collapse? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Editors' picks
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by TradingShot
46
Out of resistance comes strengthSince we last covered Euro Dollar in our Timing is everything! piece, the pair has traded lower, playing out exactly to our assessment and hitting both of our price targets. However, things have changed quite a bit ever since. Inflation has skyrocketed in the EU and the ECB seems ready to start playing catch-up on rate hikes. Looking at the charts, the Euro Dollar pair has been trading in a triangle pattern with prices bouncing off the support multiple times but failing to breakthrough. The 1.0400 level seems to mark the longer-term resistance, which has been tested multiple times but held strong. We see these as confirmation of a strong resistance. With prices close to the resistance now, we favor the long side in the short term and expect the pair to make its way to the top of the triangle. Entry at 1.04880, stops at 1.03575. Target at 1.0630. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:6E1!Long
by inspirante
Has Gasoline Price Already Peaked?NYMEX:RB1! While the U.S. stock market performed miserably lately, energy commodities have a banner year. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average gasoline price reached an all-time high of $5.016 a gallon on June 14th. Diesel logged its own record on June 19th, at $5.816 a gallon. Crude oil price hike is certainly a major contributing factor. However, refined products have been rising a lot faster. AAA gasoline was at record high $4.114 in July 2008 when WTI crude oil made history at $147 a barrel. Last month, WTI peaked at $123, at 16% below the 2008 high. However, gasoline broke $5, a whopping 22% above its 2008 record. Since mid-June, WTI lost steam and entered a downturn. It trades below $110 today. Meanwhile, gasoline price barely moved and still stands above $4.80 per AAA data. In my view, the gasoline market has already peaked, and a downtrend would follow. RBOB gasoline wholesale price, currently at $3.68 a gallon, could fall 30% or more in the next year. I came to this assessment based on two key factors: Firstly, refining margins could decrease significantly due to mean reversion. Refinery is the process to turn crude oil into gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil and other petrochemical byproducts. Refining margin measures the revenue from selling refined products, subtracting the cost of crude oil and natural gas going into the process. Below is a simple formula: Refining margin = revenue (94% of crude processed) - costs (crude oil + natural gas used) Whereas refining revenue = 23% gasoline + 63% diesel oil + 8% heavy fuel oil A barrel of 42-gallon crude oil is processed into 40 gallons of refined. For each barrel, you would get approximately 25 gallons of gasoline, 9 gallons of diesel, and 3 gallons of heavy fuel oil. According to Polish oil refiner LOTOS Group, the latest daily model refining margin is $59.06 per barrel of crude oil. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refining margin was below $10 in February. Margins were in single digits throughout 2021 and sometimes even turned negative. Crack Spread is a “quick and dirty” way to measure profit margin of a U.S. refinery. To calculate the 3:2:1 crack spread for a Gulf Coast refinery that processes Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) crude oil, add the spot price for two barrels of Gulf Coast conventional gasoline to the spot price for one barrel of Gulf Coast ultra-low sulfur diesel. Then subtract the spot price for three barrels of LLS crude oil. Finally, divide the result by 3 to produce a crack spread in dollars per barrel. Once the summer driving season is over, I expect crack spread to go down due to a combination of market force (reduced demand) and political pressure. Secondly, gasoline demand could decline significantly in a U.S. economic recession. In the past 15 years, gasoline market has crashed three times. The first was in 2008, following the subprime crisis. The second time in 2014, driven by a 60% crude oil price fall. The latest was in March 2020 when COVID-19 broke out in the U.S., leading most states to travel restrictions, lock-down or social distancing. Today, a Federal Reserve tracker suggests that the U.S. has already entered a recession. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, which tracks economic data in real time, sees second-quarter GDP contracting by 1%. Coupled with the first-quarter’s 1.6% decline, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP fits the technical definition of a recession. Gasoline market is very sensitive to changes in consumer spending. Automobile driving, which shows clear “seasonal patterns”, is the dominant demand factor. In my view, this is the defining price driver in RBOB. For viewers who read my previous writings, you would understand why I prefer RBOB over WTI in forming a trading strategy – it’s more straight-forward with fewer moving parts. A short position in NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures (RB) is a way to express this bearish view. The January (RBF3) contract is quoted at $2.779 on July 1st. RBOB futures is based on wholesale gasoline price. We could add $1 to RBF3 to get to a ballpark estimate of retail price in January. For the month after the Christmas holiday seasons, $3.80 a gallon seems to be overpriced. RBOB futures is quoted at USD per gallon. Each contract has a notional value of 42,000 gallons (1,000 barrels), equivalent to $116,760 in current market value. To place an order, $8,500 margin is required per contract. A move of 1 cent in gas price will result in $420 gain or loss to your account. Alternatively, if you are uncertain of which direction gasoline price would go, but agree that refining margin could revert to mean, we could Short the Crack Spread . A 3-2-1 short crack spread can be constructed by placing 3 Short WTI, 2 Long RB and 1 Long HO contracts. We can also monitor the following data points to be released to test the validity of these two trade set-ups: • Holiday driving data (July 4th, Labor Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas) • Q2 and Q3 earnings releases from the retail sector (Walmart, Target, Dollar General, etc.) • Q2 and Q3 GDP data • Monthly CPI data • Fed rate decisions (JUL 26-27, SEP 20-21, NOV 1-2, and DEC 13-14) Russia-Ukraine conflict poses the biggest risk to our trade. If the contagion risk intensifies and ripples through Europe, energy prices could hike sharply again. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Editors' picks
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
76
Bear Market is Far from OverCME_MINI:ES1! In the past six months, the S&P 500 has fallen from an all-time high of 4,818.62 to a fresh 52-week low of 3,636.82, down 1,181.8 points, or -24.5%. Following a brutal week, the U.S. stock market rose on Tuesday, as investors weighed the Fed rate hikes amid rising fears of a recession. The Dow rose 2.15%. The S&P popped 2.45%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.51% at market close. Has the stock market correction ended? Let’s look at a 5-year chart. The previous peak of S&P 500 was 3,383 on February 10, 2020. It hit bottom on March 23 at 2,177, down 35.6%. Since then, the S&P has a great run for nearly two years, up 121%, with very little hiccup along the way. The new high was 40% above the pre-pandemic high. After recent steep fall, the S&P is still 400 points above the pre-COVID peak, which, in my view, is our first support line. If recession fear materializes into a real one, the post-COVID dip will become the second support. I believe that the bear market is far from over. My reasoning bogs down into two essential questions: 1. Will Government policies be effective in controlling the runaway inflation? 2. Will U.S. economic growth be sustainable at current high price level? On March 16, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). A second hike followed on May 4, for 50 bps. On June 15, a big 75-bps move upped the Fed Fund Rate to 1.50%-1.75%. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation continues to rise. In May, the official Consumer Price Index rose 8.6% year-over-year. The core CPI (all items less food and energy) was also at a record high of 6.0%. While aggressive Fed tightening could reduce the excess money supply, it could not affect the record gas price, nor the supply chain bottleneck from China. President Biden will try to convince the Saudis to increase oil production during his visit. However, we need to understand it is the best interest of OPEC to maximize oil revenue. High oil price is good for them as long as it does not cause demand to decline. Besides, if Biden can’t control his own bike, do you really expect him to get OPEC to fall in line behind us? Removing the Trump era tariff could bring some relief to U.S. consumers. However, the extent of imported goods covered by tariff reductions remains unclear. From policy discussion to actual implementation, it would take months before we see price drops on store shelves. In a nutshell, my answer is NO for the first question. As to the second question, even if the Fed succeeds in bringing down the inflation, will the U.S economy sustain its growth momentum? Take the $5 gas price for instance. For an average family with two cars, the consumption of 100 gallons a month is budgeted at $500, and it is $200 more than when gas was $3/gallon. Record gas price has already resulted in less driving and reduced trips to grocery stores and supermarkets. A major impact of Fed rate hikes is higher mortgage payments for millions of homeowners. For a family with a $400,000 house and $300,000 mortgage, a 6.5%, 30-year-fixed loan will require $1,900 interest payment per month. This is $380 more than when the mortgage rate was 4.5%. High energy and mortgage costs trickle down to every corner of American life. Even if inflation is tamed, at current price level, everything is too costly for the economy to function properly. We need to have deflation, starting with energy and housing, to avoid a recession. With headwinds to the economy and massive overhang over the stock market, I’m not optimistic for the near-term U.S. economic outlook. A short position in CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures is a way to express this bearish view. The December (ESZ2) contract may be a good one, considering both liquidity factor and time to allow major market-moving events to play out. At 3,788.00, each contract has a notional value of $189,400 ($50 times index value). CME requires an initial margin of $10,500. Futures contract is marked to market daily. For a short position, a decline of 1 index point will result in $50 gain in your account balance because of the $50 multiplier. Likewise, an increase of 1 index point means a $50 reduction in your account. If you don’t want to deal with the daily profit and loss accounting, consider a Long Put Option on the same E-Mini S&P futures contract. For example, the out-of-the-money 3685-strike (100 points below market) is currently quoted at $9.00. To buy an option requires $450, again because of the contract multiplier of 50. When is the good time to place the order? The next market rebound. Put premium generally gets cheaper following a price rise in the underlying futures. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
7
FEDS, I'M READY FOR YOU 🦉🔋Time for volatility, Professor's favorite time and bring it ON! 1 Leg on each boat (Long and short) and either there will be a dip we will buy, if there will be a pump we will take some profit and wait as we have more on the right side (Long). Not sure if this makes sense to everyone but big days like this take praparation. TECHNICAL: A bit of a pump/rise Rejection at first fib level 0,236 is bad news (woke up sellers again) If rates are risen by 0.50 we could see a pump if the 0,75% rise happens we will buy the dip here (unless we post a new idea here) CAN WE DARE A PREDICTION? Well, either a PUMP (35%) or a DIP TO BUY between 19 and 18k (45%).. There is still a good 20% that the market can trick me One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
4
What's worse: The Federal Reserve or the Niagara Falls?🍁🌈 Niagara falls happened the minute we lost the key levels. . good news is that we are finally close to support again...the area close to 2017 ATHs and also 19700 technical support Usually after the falls we have a 'lake' but hey, this is Bitcoin: Can it rebound now? a bit Can it rebound tonight? Yes, if rates are not increased by 0,75% but only 0,50% Can it break lower? it can go to 12k but personally i don't expect anything less than 18k. Tonight could be a great dip to buy..unless Powel decides to go extreme. In the video we give you prime education about rates and you should watch it. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR we could see a nice rainbow later today
Long
by FX_Professor
7
USDJPY (Hedge Idea) With all financial markets preparing for the upcoming summer rate hikes, I predict markets will consolidate within a larger than usual range presenting great opportunities for investments. Next Hike: June 15-16, 2022. Hedge Idea (Scale / Intraday): Short: Scale into positions when price breaches 130.000 handle up to the top third end of the range (131.500) Long: Scale into positions when price breaches 128.250 handle & below to the bottom end of the range (127.000) POST FOMC HIKES (Mid-Term Forecast): LONG Target Price: 140.000 Target Date: End of July / Beginning of August
by brandonmattis
A Potentially Life-Changing Opportunity Most People Will MissToday I'm going to address my perspective on Bitcoin. I see this as a potentially life-changing opportunity for a lot of people, but I also understand that many people will simply overlook this opportunity. I'll talk about the overall macro structure of what I'm seeing for Bitcoin's cycle, the force behind this bearish price action, and the most logical and reasonable approach to the market. This post is not financial advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Macro-Cycle Chart - Above is the macro cycle chart for bitcoin that I have been referring to for almost a year now. - I've explained this in multiple other posts, but just to reiterate some of the key points: Bitcoin demonstrates diminishing returns and extended cycles due to its tokeneconomics supply structure. - After the halving event takes place, it takes longer and longer for Bitcoin to reach its cycle peak, as demonstrated in the case of 2012 and 2016. - We can also use the fibonacci retracement tool to understand key support and resistance zones. - The 1.618 fibonacci level first acts as support, before Bitcoin marks the cycle top at the 2.272 fibonacci level. - After the cycle ends, it then acts as support, and the price forms a bottom near those levels, where smart money accumulated before the beginning of the next rally. - Applying the same logic to the chart we see today, we have only tested the 1.618 fibonacci level, and are yet to test the 2.272 fibonacci level. - From an elliott wave perspective, I think that one last impulse wave is still a probable structure, despite how dire the situation is. Driver Behind Bearish Price Action - So what's causing Bitcoin to crash so hard? - Recently, bitcoin has been heavily paired to the equities market, which has been hit with the sentiment of fear regarding rate hikes. - Additionally, the Terra ecosystem's crash offered an appealing arbitrage opportunity for traders, incentivizing them to sell, which led to a market crash. - It's important to understand that sentiment is the key driver behind this price action. - Fed rate hikes, contrary to popular opinion, does not have a direct impact in the financial markets (click on the post below) My Thoughts on the Best Course of Action - Personally, I believe selling (or cutting losses for most) at these levels is the most imprudent move one can make. - Have the fundamentals changed? Is Bitcoin not what we used to know anymore? Has the network been hijacked to create more than 21m in supply? - If the answer to the question above is 'no', the investment thesis shouldn't change. - I think $30k is a very appealing region of interest, and I continue to accumulate at these levels. - On a personal level, this gives me vibes of when Bitcoin was at $9k, and Ethereum at $350. Conclusion Eventually people will do what they feel like doing, so I really have no intentions of convincing anyone to buy Bitcoin. But before you press that short button, take a minute to think about exactly why it is that you're shorting. What makes you bearish on the most innovative invention of the 21st century? The simple fact that prices have gone down significantly? I'm looking forward to the next 3-5 years in the crypto space and making decisions today based on it. I'm either overlooking a simple fact that most people (except myself) are aware of, or I'm possibly on a path to making generational wealth. I think I'm leaning more towards the latter. Regardless, I hope this post helps you in adjusting your view of the market to be more objective, so that you can make better decisions today for your well-being in the next few years. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
BNC:BLXLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
7
Bitcoin Pivotal Week AheadBTC has followed a descending parallel channel since Nov 2021 ATH shedding >52% in late Jan to.$32.9k. Since the low, BTC rallied to a local high of $48k in late March before resuming the gradual mark-down. Currently sitting >40% from ATH @ $38.8k. Bitcoin Weekly Chart currently above 100 EMA while the 20 EMA has crossed below the 50. Previous FOMC in early March following 25 bps hike, the market rallies in the face of a "hawkish sounding" Federal Reserve... casting doubt on the seriousness of reining in rampant inflation that's achieved highest levels in >40 years w/ no sign of slowing. Critical juncture in price action, as BTC will likely put in a red daily candle Monday 5/2 and look for direction from the broader markets over May 3rd & 4th. Potential for market upswing following the Fed's decisions is possible and would fall in line with March market response to Fed's seemingly hollow words. The more like scenario is market realization that inflation is problematic and Fed's efforts to reduce central bank balance sheets via quantitative tightening has teeth and will continue the gradual market corrections we've seen in Q1. Macro factors are indicating headwinds continue as GDP in Q1 was down, labor remains incredibly tight, prices remain unsustainably high. Bitcoin likely to creep down to $35k range as the market considers Fed actions and decides on a direction.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by R0MM3LL