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USD/JPY Reaches Six Year Highs!USD/JPY reached six-year highs and is currently testing fib resistance levels at 120.516 to move higher. If this first level of resistance is broken, the next level seems to be 121.607 and obviously new highs. The reason we are seeing this rally is largely precipitated by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, dollar weakness after the Fed hawkish tone as compared to BOJ’s dovish tone. Of course, all these factors will play into the direction and momentum of this rally moving forward. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party. SUPPORT 1: $118.374 SUPPORT 2: $117.683 RESISTANCE 1: $120.516 RESISTANCE 2: $121.607
by Yohei183
Treasuries Get Smashed as Investors Brace for HikesBonds continue their selloff ahead of the FOMC meeting today . The Fed is expected to raise rates, and we could be in for as many as 6 rate hikes total this year. This is impacting yields sending bond prices tumbling. ZN has made a brief attempt at higher levels but got batted down around 125'07, a level we identified yesterday. It is likely to continue the bear trend, currently finding support at 124'19 by a thread. The next target below is 124'06.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Is the US Federal Reserve hiking 25 basis points tomorrow?The US Federal Reserve kicked off its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday, with the markets widely anticipating a 25 basis-point hike in what would be the first interest rate increase since 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had earlier raised the prospect of a 25bp hike, telling a House financial services committee hearing two weeks ago that he is "inclined to propose and support” the increase as inflation has sat above 2% and as the United States’ labor market continued to recover. High inflation underscores need for tightening With the US consumer inflation soaring to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February, a rate hike this week is highly anticipated, although uncertainty lies in how much the Fed will have to tighten to tame inflation. Markets are also pricing in up to six or seven hikes this year, one for each of the upcoming FOMC meetings. Higher inflation expectations among US consumers, according to surveys by the New York Fed and Cleveland Fed, also ramp up the likelihood of a more hawkish Fed. 50bp hike also on the table Although many market watchers anticipate a 25bp hike when the Fed caps off its meeting on Thursday, some economists say a 50bp is also likely. Last month, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a full percentage-point hike by July 1. ING Bank’s Chief International Economist James Knightley in a note last week said it wouldn’t be surprising “to see maybe two FOMC members vote for 50bp.” Knightley and other economists from the Dutch bank most recently said markets are back to pricing 160bp hikes in six meetings in total for 2022, although the Fed may have five rate hikes planned for the year. Russia-Ukraine war places Fed in a precarious spot However, the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has reached its third week, puts the Fed on alert due to expectations that the war could worsen inflation and result in a potential global economic recession that could derail the United States’ recovery momentum. Still, the Fed appeared to be undeterred by the crisis, with Powell saying in a recent speech to Congress that the near-term effects of the war and Western sanctions on Russia remain highly uncertain. "Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook,” Powell said. Squeezing household income A rate hike in the US — the first since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged — could further squeeze household income at a time when gas prices hover around record highs. Gasoline prices in the US surged to an all-time high of $4.33 on Friday, before retreating over the weekend, according to data from the American Automobile Association. Higher interest rates will raise borrowing costs in banks, lifting variable rates on credit card debt and affecting interests on auto loans and mortgages. This could further weigh on consumer’s spending habits.
by BlackBull_Markets
$US10Y Breaking Out OF 40 Year TrendHistorically, in the absence of QE (Quantitative Easing), the US10Y (US 10 Year Treasury Bon) exceeds inflation. This means that bond yields must rise to exceed inflation for non-Federal Reserve buyers to enter the market place. Non-Government buyers will not buy a bond below inflation as their real returns would be negative. A SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS/CONSIDERATIONS: How The Fed May Reduce The Balance Sheet: - If they flood the market, we could see a squeeze on the bond market as the FED represented 2/3 of the bond market prior to ending their aggressive purchasing of bonds last week. How The New "Standing Repo Facility (S.R.F)" Will Effect The Bond Market: - Unclear, as it is untested in this Quantitative Tightening (QT) climate. - The premise is that the S.R.F is a tool that FED now has to avoid what happened in 2019. The goal is to help prevent a spike in bond yields. Explanation from Federal reserve website: www.federalreserve.gov "When the Federal Reserve conducts an overnight repo, it buys a security from an eligible counterparty and simultaneously agrees to sell the security back the next day. The difference between the purchase price and the sale price of the securities implies a rate of interest earned by the Federal Reserve on the transaction. The FOMC sets the S.R.F minimum bid rate, which is the minimum interest rate the Federal Reserve is willing to receive in an S.R.F operation; if the amount of bids exceeds the operation limit, the actual interest rate that a counterparty pays is determined through an auction process. The securities accepted in S.R.F operations include Treasury securities, agency debt securities, and agency mortgage backed securities."
TVC:US10YLong
by VakninAnalytics
3
How the Fed's Rate Hikes Affect the Market (or Not)In this post, I'll be demonstrating how the Fed's rate hikes affect the equity market (or how they don't), through historical examples and analyses of market psychology. This is an issue that has been going on for a while, and one that has caught the attention of all market participants. Yes, tapering and rate hikes aren’t necessarily good news, but I don’t think that 1) they necessarily indicate the beginning of a bear market/recession, and 2) the Fed is as powerful and influential as we think they are. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. Introduction - There’s a myth, a misconception in the market that the Fed allegedly rescues falling markets with rate cuts and easing measures, and vice versa for when the market is overheated. - This myth began in 1987 during Black Monday, when Alan Greenspan’s Fed cut rates after the crash, creating an impression that the Fed was directly responding to the stock market. - This is when the (mis)belief that the Fed would put a floor under a a falling market stuck. - Nevertheless, if we analyze the data, it actually demonstrates that the Fed stood pat for most corrections, and cutting cycles typically arrive during bear markets, just as coincidence. Historical Cases - There are only two occasions in history where the Fed’s cutting cycles corresponded with market lowpoints. - The first is the aforementioned Black Monday of 1987, and even for this case. - If we take a look at the situation back then, it’s not so much that the Fed made international moves that contributed to history, but rather that the bear market started amid a global liquidity crisis. - With excess liquidity, the rates should have been flat, or down, but that wasn’t the case. - Thus, the Fed’s rate cuts were vital to unfreezing credit and ensuring banks and clearing houses would have access to liquidity they needed, while the market was under severe stress. - The second occasion was the rate cut in 1998, when stocks were reacting to the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). - There was fear in the market that this collapse would lead to a domino effect, ending in a banking meltdown. - Generally, when people fear a banking contagion, liquidity in interbank funding markets dry up. - The Fed’s action to cut rates during this time helped keep money moving, and ensured that banks met their regulatory obligations. Market Psychology - In order to understand the recent discussion revolving around the importance of the Fed’s actions, we need to understand human nature. - People love finding narrative threads and grand explanations because we’re biologically wired to make sense of the world that way. - They confuse correlation and causation, and zero in on evidence that supports their view and shuns whatever suggests otherwise. - But it’s important to remember that in most cases, a fact that everyone knows, tends to be closer to myth than reality, and even if it weren’t a myth, the fact that everyone knows it does not give us an edge in the market. Summary Market shocks are caused by surprises. News about a pandemic or cyber attack that catches investors off guard is much riskier than macro events that are predictable and can be anticipated. Given that the markets are efficient (which I believe they are), it's rational to assume that news about the Fed's rate hikes, and people reaction to it are already priced in. While short term volatility is definitely expected, I believe that the likelihood of this event becoming a trigger for a multi-year recession is extremely unlikely. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
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TVC:IXICEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
61
10 Year Rate: Price keeps moving up!Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1D Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It has broken out of the top trendline of the falling channel with a recent re-test of the S/R line. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges (LONG-TERM). The measured move is noted. 4) There was a Bull Flag Pattern forming on the charts within the falling channel pattern, which helped the price move higher. The measured move for the SHORT-TERM is noted. 5) I discussed this breakout in the first week of December 2021 when the price was still at around 1.40ish. PAY ATTENTION! What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
3
Markets price in five Fed rate hikes in 2022, cut by 2025Fed policy bets are evolving, which may explain why gold has managed an upswing alongside the S&P 500 while the US Dollar has fallen so far in February. Policymakers’ increasingly assertive posture on stimulus withdrawal coupled with supportive economic data – most recently, January’s payrolls report – have driven up near-term rate hike expectations. The longer view has softened, however. Fed funds futures imply that the push to price in five 25bps rate hikes for 2022 has likewise seen the 2023 outlook soften, from three such increases to two. A single rise seems to have drifted out to 2024, implying adjustment to a more gradual path after fireworks this year. Strikingly, a cut is now priced in for 2025.
by IlyaSpivak
Khans SPY-Update for KW04 - 26.01.22FOMC-DAY Today will be wild. Expect the Usual Bullish/Bearish Nightmare Candles right before the FOMC-Meeting and the usual trap and reversal. Given that the Market as a whole pushes like crazy since PM Start, i expect a top-resistance test at 442/3 With that push, a lot of Shorts trapped below from yesterday, If 442/443 fails, breakdown to give them a chance of closing the positions No one (at least no retailer) can predict todays' outcome, i expect a 0.25 hike and a more dovish stance from Powell. In the end one "wrong" answer to a question and we will tank. But my bet would be that we end green. If that is the case, i would expect the volatility to fade during the next few days IF you want to trade today, expect to lose all money and be aware that today could be a climax of volatility and move in all directions.
AMEX:SPY
by KhanPhelan
Drawing Parallels from 1999-2000 Hiking Cycle During the 1998-2000 period we had a 20% correction in SP500 in the LH of 1998 followed by WTI bottoming in the low teens and 3 very fast rate cuts In the following 8 months up SP500 gained just shy of 50%, WTI gained 60% and the first 25bps rate hike come in 30th of June 1999 SP500 corrected to retest previous low, then second rate hike of 25bps come in on 24th Aug 1999 SP500 corrects again briefly trade 3% below previous low. 18th Oct 1999 will remain the low for the next 16 months ! From the first rate hike in June 1999 and the last in May 2000 (175bps) the SP500 gains 8% and WTI 160% The Market, both SP500 and WTI did not start breaking until Sep 2000 that is 14 months from the first rate hike. The parallel to today are March 2020 correction 35%, WTI bottoming in April, Rates cuts to 0.00 SP500 from Mar 2020 to Jan 2022 gains over 100%, WTI gains 300%, first rate hike in sight My conclusion is that the hiking cycle isn't going to break the market, Energy/Cost of living will be where the pay is going to come from. Lets put it that way during 1999-2000 hiking cycle the music never stopped it only slowed down it stopped 8 months later when there was no more BUYERS, I believe we will follow a similar path into 2022-2023
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ElReyChristophe
US100 Institutes trapping retails for exit liquidityWe closed Friday at the local support pf 14600 and went through it like a knife through butter down to the next major support at 14400. If we do not hold that there is a high chance we dive into 14000. A Pattern that keeps repeating is that we see green candles in premarket, fooling average Joe that the dip has ended, average Joe buys in, and in the second half of the trading day institutes DUMP IT. That is, the retails SEND IT and later Institutes DUMP IT. Be very careful on green candles...false breakouts are a known tactic to attract exit liquidity. Only get in the market when it is very well clear that the tanking has ended.... hard to call but you know...
CAPITALCOM:US100
by GoatOfWallStreet
Time to decide!!! Up or down?!As we can see the price squezzing inside the triangle..probably tomorrow we might see sharp move “up or down” Btc volatility 39% which means too early to talk about new ATH’s 1) If the market wants to liquidate shorts,there will be a short squeeze approximately 46K-47K could be more! 2) If long squeeze; price may drop to 35k-36K 3) Institutional investors selling their Btc since December.Macro side still risky. There will be min. 4 interest rates increase this year (which is not good for us for Crypto) 4)There is a lot of stablecoins are waiting on the sidelines to enter the market.. I think everyone “Institutional investors” “Retailers” “Shrimps or Whales” everyone is waiting for clear direction! Stay safe :)))
by Madinakh
11
S&P 500 Reacts to Rate Hikes - Forecast for 2022The S&P 500 had a tough week with notable losses in tech stocks. The stock market tends to be reactive to interest rate decisions so this performance may not be so surprising when considering the hawkish tone of the Fed. The fight against inflation looks set to dominate 2022 and Goldman Sachs predicts four rate hikes this year from the Fed. But, is the bull run over for S&P 500? There are reasons to be optimistic that it may continue even with these market conditions. You may recall that many top companies have fared well in the pandemic. Investors will be more wary of risk assets, but blue chips with strong fundamentals could experience strong growth throughout 2022. Once March rate hikes are priced in, we could see the index regain its strength and continue a push upwards. In the short term, bearish pressure could see the index slip to 4630 which is a strong support level. There is strong resistance around the 4725 level where the MA200 is on the 4-hour timeline. Once this resistance is broken, we could see a test of the ascending channel and from there price could continue to surge past all-time highs.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capitalcom
Gold's Yearly Outlook 2022Hi guys, Welcome to 2022, the year where gold will make new all time highs. But (there is always a but) not before all bulls will be flushed out and the whole market will start turning bearish. There will be no free lunch and prices of below 1680 are possible. The bears set the tone for Q1 and they treated us with a strong engulfing bearish candle on the 1st trading week of the year. ⚠️ Start of new rate hike cycle This year is a special year because it is expected that the FED will start a new hiking cycle in March 2022. Until that time, gold will remain in the claws of the bears and under strong selling pressure. The most important day to write in your calendar is ofcourse January 26th, as Uncle Powell will treat us with a new monetary fireworks show. This FOMC meeting will be extremely important as Powell will reveal to the market when the first rate hike will happen and if the tapering will be accelerated again just like in the December meeting. 🐻 Bearish environment for Precious Metals This is obviously a bearish environment for gold, since the strongest driver for gold is monetary policy (especially the FED's). I am expecting to see around $1725 near or after the next FOMC-meeting. From that point we need to listen carefully to what the FED will tell the market. The market is pricing in a rate hike as early as March, immediately after the end of tapering. If Powell hints on a rate hike in March, gold will remain bearish until March and I am expecting to hit 1650-1675 by then. 💎 The Golden Magic But then the magic happens. At a certain point the market will realise that there is no more cheap money. They actually now have to pay interest on their borrowed money. Which means plunging stocks, cryptos, commodities, you name it. And that is when gold will shine, as gold is an anti-cyclic asset. If we may believe history, every new rate hike cycle was followed by a strong recession. Lucky for goldtraders, that is an environment where gold feels very comfortable. Recessions, war, conflict, pandemics etc are another strong driver for gold. I expect gold will turn mega bullish by summer 2022 and I am aiming for $2000 before end of this year. But not before 1650-1675 and not before the first rate hike. ❌ No rate hike scenario If Powell surprises the market and not reveal plans for any rate hike in March, gold can jump to 1850 until the next FOMC in March with a possible test of 1900. This is a scenario that we need to take into account, and also technically still possible. 🔮 Cesaro's Crystal Ball For the coming weeks leading up to 26th of January, I am expecting to see the 1775 horizontal support to be tested with a wick. From there we are most likely going to be ranging in a bearflag formation between 1775-1815, where the market will wait for the fundamental trigger to breakdown the bearflag towards 1725 or invalidate it and bulls move the price back to 1850. For now all shorts need to have SL's above the most recent lower high 1832. Cheers, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CesaroPelucci
6
STOP STOP HUNTING!!!THIS IS THE DEFINITION OF A STOP HUNT! we've all seen how the dollar has exploded over the past couple of days but NZD is not giving up without a fight you can see that every time the kiwi goes below .695 on the weekly candle it rushes back up before the week is over. now fundamentally speaking, WE KNOW the RBNZ (New Zealand Central Bank) will be raising rates next month from the current .25%. & WE KNOW THE SMART THING TO DO IS TO PUT OUR MONEY INA STRONG CURRENCY WITH HIGH INTEREST RATES, ESPECIALLY AGAINST LOW ONES JPY( -.10%) CHF(-.75%), & USD (.25),which happens to be all the "SAFE HAVEN" currencies i cannot be the only one looking ahead and seeing the true potential of the KIWI. nzdusd must go to .7315 (400+ PIPS) nzdchf must go to .662 (250+ PIPS) nzdjpy MUST GO TO 83.9 (800+ PIPS)
Long
by SlattYSL
3
USDCHF bulls aim for 0.9115 confluence after Fed, SNBUSDCHF extends Fed-led rally to the fresh high since May 06 even as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reiterated status-quo during early Thursday. The pair seems to prepare bulls for the bi-annual SNB press conference while heading towards a convergence of 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement January-April upside. Given the upbeat RSI conditions, not oversold, the quote may battle the 0.9115 hurdle with a notable strength. However, a daily closing beyond the same becomes necessary to aim for another hurdle, near 0.9080, to the mid-March low of 0.9213. Meanwhile, failures to cross the 0.9115 resistance could trigger a pullback towards the early month top close to 0.9050. Though, any further weakness will be questioned by the 0.9000 psychological magnet and a horizontal area comprising multiple levels since December 21, 2020, around 0.8930-20. In a case wherein the USDCHF prices drop below 0.8920, February lows near 0.8870 and January bottom close to 0.8835 could offer intermediate stops before dragging the pair to the yearly low of 0.8756.
Long
by MTradingGlobal