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I ANALYZE FOR YOUR COMFORT - TREASURY BONDSOn the chart we have a “Hockey Cross” formation, which as we know is played down, at the ice level. The price of American bonds decreases, their yield increases, which shows us the inflation spectrum on the Horizon. I analyze bonds for investment less than for the effect that their decrease can have on the entire financial market. Dovish BONDS, means rising inflation, which means cheaper dollar, safer more expensive hats. This is only if the EDF does not intervene. Because if he does .... if he walks and millimeters at interest rates, then keep it .... If you find the analysis interesting, given that the impact of bonds is general in the market, leave comments and I will return periodically with update!
CBOT:ZB1!
by Viorex
Only a fool would sell (long term) in this marketWith a similar situation emerging to the 2008 financial crisis wherein gold and the stock market along with many other assets depreciated simultaneously, and Coronavirus creating a more risk averse investing atmosphere, The best trade to take now is to wait for a pullback to 1450 (likely entry) or 1400. The long term trend line shows that gold will find support again at 1450 by August of this year even if it dips below now after the current spike upwards because of Coronavirus. Additionally, gold has already increased in price almost the same amount that it initially did in the years following the financial crisis and we are currently, supposedly not in recession. Many investment firms, hedge funds, and banks predict multiple Fed rate hikes in the future adding more inflation into the price of Gold. Predictions for a rate hike on the next Fed press conference are nearing 99.9%. All factors point to a buy signal in the 1400-1450 range after waiting for any fools to sell because of BIS paper gold price suppression (Note the record high volume of trading on the last candle)
FX:XAUUSDLong
by telephoton
Impulse and retracement, the danger of the one trend approachOANDA:GBPJPY 3 days ago I published my Bearish target for GBP that was reached yesterday @141 level. it is critical in a trading plan to anticipate retracement. Retracement is a necessary step to initiate a new impulse but what I would like to simply illustrate is why retracement can be so brutal and potentially very damaging by nature. On that 120 minutes chart we can see the downtrend impulse created by the bearish signal when the pair crossed below the 143 level. It was my expected signal to enter new Short positions. A Central Bank rate decision is a key Forex event. Given the Brexit context, many investors were anticipating yesterday a drop and that context has created a new down leg to that initial impulse to reach my defined target. That target area is a very dangerous place to trade for the following reasons: As many investors are willing to participate to the downtrend they place Short orders but because it's a very important event usually with conservative stop loss. All these orders placed very far from the beginning of the last impulse from around 142.50 have created a HUGE BUY volume opportunity! All things being equal Short orders are Long for the counterpart. Any retracement in that context can be initiated by the available volume in the first place. Then when the retracement starts many investors can change their mind and reverse their positions. It is fueling the strength of the retracement and by hitting Sellers stop loss the retracement is amplified and exaggerated by High-Frequency Trading. Finally, the retracement of the pair was so boosted that is has reached above the day high As a conclusion investor shall be very cautious when they join lately a market impulse and it is as well perillous to trade against the retracement trend as it can conversely just add power to it. In other words, investors are trading against their positions.
Education
by parisseine
EDUCATION I am short on GBPAUD, and here is why..On the GBPAUd pair I have identified a prosperous trade setup, an opportunity to go short. The GBp has recently not met a deal for the Brexit agreement which means the Sterling will soon be on its own. The impact this will have on the market will ultimately push the Gbp down to lower levels, I am personally seeking 1.6500. Also the Feds are speechless as to if they will hike interests rates 2 more times in 2019 this also plays a major role on the Forex market. Take a look at my analysis here and comment what you think!!
Short
by UrbanGeniusOfficial
1
SPY (Fine Line Between Love and Hate)Whats up Traders Total Breakdown . . . December is slow and low volume, and the bulls just are there to prop up this fizzling market right now. I think our next major stops are: 255 SPY and / or FOMC news release on December 19 If the fed maintains their hawkish stance, be ready for MORE PAIN.if they even hint at dovishness, be ready for a rocket to the MOON. Dont gamble on the move, trade the news bounce!!!! Message me if you have questions.
AMEX:SPY
by WillNixTrading
4
CADJPY LONGS FROM SUPPORTCADJPY has recently interacted with a key weekly support level of 85.60 with weekly 38.2 fib confluence and bounced breaking through a key trendline resistance. Technically this looks good for a long set up now we have created a higher high on the 4hr timeframe. Looking for price to retrace back into the 4hr highs around the 86.40 zone highlighted with the rectangle box. If we see bullish price action we can look for the long opportunities here. Band of Canada are looking to hike interest rates and typically you will see a currency increase in value in the lead up to a rate hike.
Long
by BlueberryMarkets
ETHUSD - 1D Chart AnalysisThe investors reacted to the rate increasing decision made by Feds with a lot of uncertainty - Here is why. What's the most important to know is that this decision is just a small part from a bigger plan which has the purpose to bring back the money in the banks from the economy (the markets are included). And of course, the questions always remains the same: - "Is this only the first wave of sell offs? Or it will be others as well?” - "Is it possible for the US Banks to have again liquidity problems?” - "Is it possible for the ECB to do the same? If yes, in how much time from now?” - "A new possible financial crisis will bring any kind of benefits for the crypto currencies market? Or it's still too early to think about this?” Overall, it seems that the fundamentals which are expected to bring a positive impulse to the market are late to appear. Technicals on the other hand shows that the Fed's decision hurts. Ethereum, like most of the crypto currencies has registered yesterday, for the 3rd time in a row, a day in which the price failed to close the day higher than it started and what we can see now seems to be more like a slight recovery attempt. The RSI has bounced back from the level of 32 while the price has dropped as well below the lower standard deviation of the Bollinger Bands indicating a possible rebound. Furthermore, the market confirmed in the meantime the drop which was indicated on the 10th of October by the Stochastic's "crossover" but it shows also that the price is still searching for the bottom. Based on these 3 indicators, we might be tempted to think that the market is having a "slow down" rather than a "bounce back", the later scenario being confirmed by the MACD. The possible target prices are : If the market will continue the correction it may encounter a difficult resistance at the price of 205$. If it will break it, we can consider 212$ as a target in extension. If the market will continue the downtrend, it may break the support level at 189$ scenario in which 179$ can be considered as a target price in extension.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by ReadBTC
EURUSD Looking For Direction To Trend. The 2 Possible Scenarios!Looking at the Monthly charts, it was already evident that the long term trendline at around the 1.23000 level was rejected for the 4th time and in the process to conform the break to the further downside, this pair formed a H & S PATTERN evident on the weekly charts. However you might be asking why is the pair not trending down as its suppose to and instead flirting with the major crucial levels? The answer can be very complex for the beginners as the market is not only soley directed by the technical analysis but also the sentiment and the fundamental factors! On the technical terms the pair seems to be favored to break to the downside. It must be noted that the neckline of the H & S was broken a few weeks back and retested as well, however the crucial support that lies just beneath the neckline also needs to break in order for this pair to trend down. So this said, the main driver of this pair according to my own view rests on in the hand of the FED as the expectations of rate hike four times this year seems to be in the balance. Fundamental factors have been so important in driving this pair in recent years, and if the FED keeps on track to raise rates 4 times this year then the pair is highly likely to break to the downside, in other turn of events should the FED fail to raise the rates as expected this year then the pair might break the wedge and head up! The long term fate of this pair is tied up in the hands of the FED as we approach the end of the year it must be noted to carefully observe what the FED plans and from here on then a follow up technical analysis can be done. For now the pair will likely to keep ranging until certain fundamental factors come in to play! Thanks for reading. please follow me if you like my analysis. If there are any signals pertaining to this thread i will repost again. This is just my personal analysis and i will keep monitoring this pair closely
by FX618Analysis
DXY - BullishHere we have the DXY on the weekly, what we are looking for is a drive lower to push out the now 'Net Longs' and to put them offgurad and to attract short sellers into this market. Next we next to see a higher low somewhere in the regions of the highlighted area, in order to look for SHORT opportunities in the likes of: EURUSD AUDUSD GBPUSD NZDUSD OR by going long on the FXCM USDollar index. This of course may not happen however this is something we are keeping a very watchful eye on for the next couple of months.
TVC:DXYLong
by ZenTrader108
2
EURUSD Bigger Picture Trade Forecast - That's a long way down!I have been watching this setup unfold and am really looking forward to the overall short trade that is coming here. I expect the corrective structure that we are currently in to complete with wave 3 to the upside and will then be looking for a reversal on lower time frames to enter this short. I am trading the wave 3 leg to the upside as well. Take note of the 3 TP levels as price could reverse from any of them.
Short
by Linton_White
TLT: Mother of all short squeezeEvery hedge funds and their wife, dog, cats, kids are short bonds. Everyone is trapped in the narrative of the FED's rate hike. The bus of short 10 year treasury is full. Its time for a train derail. In a risk-off environment, do you think the FED will ever hike rates further? Adding another level of uncertainly is the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore. Including the recent crash of Italian bonds, EU drama yet again (potentially 5x bigger than Greece) The only place funds can reposition themselves are the US dollar, and US debt/treasury. Uncle Sam. The VIX is currently near lows once again. ~13 It is time to counter-trade that, and reap the rewards of the short covering along 117 support line. You have only 2% to risk. Just buy August 2018 - June 2019 call/ bull spread and close your chart. No stop loss. If it doesnt get there, you lose your investments. If it does, you get back 5x~20x your investments. All conditions are perfect.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by LastBattle
8
SELL NZD ON DIVERGENT MONETARY POLICY"We recommend selling NZDUSD targeting 0.7130 with a stop-loss at 0.7315, implying a reward-to-risk ration of 2:1 (spot reference: 0.7252). In stark contrast to the Fed, the RBNZ is likely to strike a dovish tone in its March Statement, given recent disappointing activity data. Following the February MPS meeting, Assistant Governor and Chief Economist, John McDermott, noted in an interview with Bloomberg that while the central bank’s stance was neutral with “a significant probability that the next rate move could be an increase sometime in the future” he added “there’s also a substantial probability that the next move could actually be a cut. If we saw big moves in inflation expectations, the market should expect the bank to act.” As noted above, NZD may experience further downward pressure if a more hawkish Fed creates an environment of higher US interest rates and weaker equities, given that its high sensitivity to these variables will likely be exacerbated by a lack of real rate advantage, FX overvaluation, and a highly responsive government bond market." - BARCLAYS
Short
by itzbert
AUDUSD buy trade succesful, next: rate decisionHi guy's, in this week's video I mentioned the continuation higher in AUDUSD to fulfill at least the minimum requirements. This has been done and our original buy's have been succesful. Next the rate decision is on the agenda. In my video I also explained the difference between a continuation and an extension. The daily time frame does not show one unique wave to be over. This means; 'IF price moves lower as a result of the rate decision it is an extension lower on daily time frame and not a continuation'. Safe trades!
by TimStuyts
EUR/USD falls to 1.1836 amid progress on tax reformEUR/USD falls to 1.1836 amid progress on tax reform In line with forecasts, an improvement in consumers’ sentiment dragged the pair to the weekly PP at 1.1864, while the subsequent news that two hesitating senators agreed to join other Republicans to support tax reform pushed the pair even further to the monthly R1 at 1.1826. As this barrier is located slightly above the bottom boundary of an ascending channel and is additionally supported by the 200-hour SMA, the pair is expected to make a fully-fledged rebound and start surging back to the 1.1910 and then 1.1960 levels. However, a resistance posed by the weekly PP as well as concentration of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs near the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1890 suggests that the rate is likely to make one more turnaround especially if it matches with release of info on the US Prelim GDP.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Short AUDCAD - residue play post rate hike (Late Entry)This morning as the beginning of Asia session you can see that the market bid up AUD prepping for a good Trade Balance Data. This is kinda hit and miss historically, I just did a quick statistics analysis to data release since end of 2013 and the missed forecast currently at 49%. Not very encouraging for a certain bet. The price action up until the announcement was strongest in AUDCAD, which again tilting the odds in the Short favor. If data is a hit, it likely won't move much further given the pair has had a big retracement since CAD rate hike last night, on the other hand a miss would prepare you the best entry to squeeze out the last juice from the rate hike. Again, retail IG Sentiment is Long, I wanna be Short. Technical level was 0.98 and this week Pivot at 0.9817. I did not take the trade as I was away from desk but if it's retracing to just around the 0.98-0.9792 (Last Week Pivot) I will enter. Target wise, I'd love to hit the 0.971-0.972 area but it won't get there if there is no further support from CAD news coming Friday. As for AUD, I don't expect Governor Lowe to make any hawkish remarks. It's still a bit of a risk event that if you make early entry now and trail your stop loss just before the speech, I believe that gives a better protection.
Short
by vietbach1990
3
USDCAD - Waiting for CAD Rate AnnouncementThe USDCAD pair has been sideway after a quick drop and rebounce as 3 of the Fed members spoke dovishly. Today is gonna be a big day for CAD. Generally since Bank of Canada is expected to keep rate, the hint will be in the statement so we may see a bit more volatility back and forth during the announcement as people figuring out their next move. Looking forward on the calendar we generally have good numbers coming out for CAD while USD has some mixed signal with Trade Balance expected to be worsen while ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI expected to be good. Overall sentiment is bearish for USDCAD in my opinion, I would expect USDCAD to drift downward or flat toward news announcement. The IG Sentiment has Net Long so again, this makes me bearish. In fact if the USDCAD proceed to rise until nearer the rate decision, I will look to go Short as this provides very good risk-reward. Technical level to watch is round number 1.24 and 1.23, Weekly Pivot 1.2377.
Short
by vietbach1990
Gold Short CLV7Between a weakening DX and the potential for a couple more rate hikes this year I am looking for one last push in Gold prior to a larger move down. Keep in mind this is an October contract GCV7 chart as this overall play may push into the next couple of months to play out. Enter Short: 1267-1270.7 SL: 1276.5 TP1: 1245.2 TP2: 1232.8 TP3: 1219.8 If playing multiple contracts, I advise taking partial profits at each target and re-adding shorts as appropriate. Comments and questions welcome. Good trading all!
COMEX:GCV2017Short
by smitheric1970
4
USDCAD - Sell Bias For The Rest of 2017!And we get the second major central bank rate hike in 2017! The Bank of Canada raised interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% during yesterday BOC Rate Statement, hiking rates for the first time in seven years! "Governing Council judges that the current outlook warrants today's withdrawal of some of the monetary policy stimulus in the economy. Future adjustments to the target for the overnight rate will be guided by incoming data as they inform the Bank's inflation outlook, keeping in mind continued uncertainty and financial system vulnerabilities." With yesterday rate hike, it more or less confirmed our bias on USDCAD for the remaining of 2017. We will remain bearish bias on this pair for the year! That said, it doesn't mean we are shorting it right away, but for every retracement and correction to the upside, we will be seeing it as an opportunity to go for a short trade. Looking at how price has developed since May 2017, a decent retracement to 1.2886 will present a good shorting opportunity. Shared with our traders on this, the impulse moves down for USDCAD can be quick and strong; and more importantly, it presents us with a very good chance to scale in for this pair. *Again, this is not a trade call. Make sure you have a proper plan to engage the market and scale in accordingly.
Short
by KarYong
2
USD/JPY IDEA- Something to consider after Yellen statement. Couple scenarios to consider here depending on the tone and remarks made by Yellen regarding monetary policy. Currently USD has been moving up but the move will only continue if Fed chair Yellen reinforces her comments made 2 weeks ago when they decided to raise rates again and stated they were still on track and serious about another rate hike in 2017 either in September or most likely December even though the economic data has not supported this. I would expect her to repeat these kinds of hawkish comments that would keep USD on the rise, however if she decides to change course and takes back what she said 2 weeks ago and makes more dovish statements raising rates only when economic data supports it USD could take a big hit as the data hasn't been great.
by nick.trader4