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Rateofinflation

The Great Inflation AGAIN? US Inflation Rate YoY Comparison - ECONOMICS:USIRYY Stark similarities to the beginning of the Great Inflationary Period (GIP) which ranged from 1965 - 1982. The GIP fractal is not a prediction, it only offers us perspective and context. As an example, US Inflation YoY could potentially bounce around between 3 - 4% for another 32 months as it did between 1975 - 1978 before making any major move. This is a scenario I had not considered, an almost 3 year sideways boring consolidation. We will continue to track this chart to see how it compares moving forward into the future. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by PukaCharts
CPI - January Recalc / Base effect 1982 to 2020 MedianFriday, I received a call from a friend, she was beside herself in disgust, anger, and disbelief by the latest disturbance in the Farce. Her communication caught me completely off guard, left me overturned in anger, shock, disbelief. Questioning as to whether I should have seen this coming, anticipated the exponential change in outright "distortion" - the effect was as if someone had set off a Nuke inside my head. The BLS website confirmed the change, Zerohedge picked it a few hours later. Media outlets ignored it - given Fitch was the only rating agency to contact EverGrande... Moody's and Standard and Poors made no attempt... the News was left in the Dumpster Fire of Inequity. ___________________________________________________________________________________ 1982 has been used in the Majority of CPI Methodology for CPI Calculation. Friday the BLS Issued the following statement - "January 2022 CPI weight update Starting in January 2022, weights for the Consumer Price Index will be calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020. The BLS considered interventions, but decided to maintain normal procedures." Effectively reducing the Denominator for CPI by a large Margin. www.bls.gov _____________________________________________________________________________________ CPI Formula: CPI_t = ( C_t ) / ( C_0 ) x 100 CPI_t consumer price index in the current period C_t = cost of the market basket in the current period C_0 = cost of the market basket in the base period _____________________________________________________________________________________ 1982 was chosen as the Shocks of the late '70s to 1981 were beginning to subside from a High of 14.6%. By Example, for simplicity: Base Years: 2012 / 2013 / 2014 Base Basket of Goods / Services Consumed: $15 / $20 / $25 2012 @ 15 / 12 x 100 = 125 2013 @ 16 / 12 x 100 = 133 2014 @ 17 / 12 x 100 = 142 ________________________________________________________________________________________ Inflation Rate Calculation - Year over Year Base Adjustment 2012 to 2013: ( 133 - 125 ) / 125 x 100 = 6.4 % Year over Year 2013 to 2014: ( 142 - 133 ) / 133 x 100 = 6.67 % Year over Year ________________________________________________________________________________________ Using the BLS Base year for Cumulative Rate of Inflation as the denominator is where Reality sets in and provides a cumulative result. 1982 to 2013: ( 133 - 75 ) / 75 x 100 = 77.3% The Cumulative Base Effect using the 1982 CPI - Inflation Rate of - 77.3 % ________________________________________________________________________________________ Beginning January 2022 the Denominator will be changed - to precisely where we do not know. What we do know is this, it will be moved far higher. This will reduce the Rate of Inflation. _________________________________________________________________________________________ By Example ( Assumed Newly Adjusted Base Unknown ) 2022 to ~2020 Base ( 102 - 96 ) / 96 x 100 = 6.25 % 102.1 is the BLS Stated Rate of 2021 CPI My Inflation rate is far higher, as it includes all Goods and Services weighted by average Household Consumption It currently remains on an increasing trajectory @ 28.96%. It includes an approximation of most, if not very close to ALL of the "Things We Need". ___________________________________________________________________________________________ The impact of this change will have far-reaching Economic, Political, and Social consequences. I'd prefer to hear your thoughts on the ramifications as opposed to providing commentary.
FRED:MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE
by HK_L61
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