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✔️ Sell the Rumors- Buy the News 👨‍🏫✔️✔️✔️So finally the rumors of an increased rate hike was the time to go short (sell) and the actual results was the news to buy... Usually we say 'Buy the Rumors- Sell the News' but this time it was the other way around. ⚠️🇺🇸🍿👀 Below i will inform you about the FEDS press conference, especially the best ones. - Real GDP growth accelerated this quarter ✔️ good news - participants lowered their economic activity forecasts with an average real GDP growth forecast below 2% to 2,4 ✔️ ok - we will continue to significantly reduce the balance sheet and reiterate that a rate hike at the meetings is appropriate ✔️ ok - inflation surprised (lol) and we will change forecasts ✔️ normal, expected - raising by 75 is our flexible and responsive approach to data (inflation) ✔️ ok , priced in? - the economy is very strong and well positioned to implement tighter monetary policy ✔️ Great to hear Question: What is the prognosis? Everything depends on the data. ✔️ told you employment data is Key - we are quickly raising rates to a normal level, 50-75 are discussed in July ✔️ ok - a rate of 3%-3.5% is suitable for reducing inflation ✔️✔️✔️ GREAT! CME prognosis was for 4-5% - we want to see a serious decline in monthly inflation figures ✔️ good luck, make friends with Putin - the goal is to bring inflation down to 2% and to keep the labor market strong ✔️ bla bla..will take time you need to control energy prices so..overall good things were said. Especially that rates will not be over 3,5%. great news really BTC TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Professor expects 24400.. we will see what happens then. For now I am bullish One Love
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
12
NASDAQ- Hikes Shmikes Nasdq should RiseI see support. going Long. idea would be invalidated under 11300. News: www.investing.com Fed Raises Rates by 0.75% as Rampant Inflation Forces Biggest Hike Since 1994 The Federal Reserve surprised markets on Wednesday with a larger than expected 0.75% rate increase as persistently high inflation compelled the central bank to deliver its biggest hike at a single meeting since 1994. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark rate to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% from 0.75% to 1% previously. That was more hawkish than economists’ expectations for a 0.5% rate hike. In the weeks leading up to the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he wasn't “actively considering” a 0.75% rate increase and signaled that a 0.5% hike would be appropriate at the June and July meetings. But several signs showing above-trend inflation could stick around for longer than feared forced the central bank to step up the pace of monetary policy tightening to prevent falling further behind in the battle against inflation. The steeper than expected rate hike pushes the Fed closer to reaching the neutral rate – a rate that neither improves the economy nor slows it down. The Fed had previously signaled that it was eager to move “expeditiously” to a restrictive stance, above the neutral rate, to bring down demand and cool inflation. Restoring supply and demand in the labor market is key to the central bank’s plans. A tight labor market in which there are about two jobs for every unemployed American – threatens to fuel a wage spiral that could push inflation beyond the Fed’s reach. Some on Wall Street have suggested that job gains would have to reverse before the Fed considers taking a step back. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR *dyor
ULong
by FX_Professor
1
Everything has changed.People ask me, "but why is Bitcoin doomed to fall back to Earth?" People ask me, "but why has Bitcoin risen so much the last 12 years then?" People ask me, "but why don't you want me to have a lambo?" I tell people, "Bitcoin is a failure of its own success. Blockchain is the internet of things. It has worked so well that governments are now developing their own versions and realizing they need to regulate." I tell people, "Bitcoin did so extremely well because (-) real interest rates caused any excess liquidity to flow into new pockets of the economy. Look at the yellow box. Most bond holders have been losing money in real terms even though bond prices were going up. You can see that all the growth since 2012 has been artificially pumped up. I tell people, "These last 10-12 years are the quintessential example of a Wave 5 Elliott wave. The sellers had all left. Volume and fundamentals remained low even though prices kept rising. Bubbles formed and whole new markets developed (crypto) as a result of monetizing the debt. So no, this is not like 2018, 2014, or 2011. You cannot compare this next cycle to the previous ones. Either the Inflation Rate (red line) crashes, or BTC and markets crash. (Not Financial Advice. This is my opinion.)
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by MonetaryRebel
2
FED - BANK - CustomerMoney flow chain 1.0: Fed(rates)->Bank (interest)-> Consumer(Credit). Timy to pay it back 2.0 : Consumer(Credit)->Bank (interest)->Fed(rates). we have steady 1.0 <->2.0 interaction. But. When Fed gives no money. banks cant close holes of fault credit mass. means bank gives no more credit , but banks wanna money from Consumer back. Consumer cant pay money back, couse fed increased rates which his Firm/Company cant pay = bancwupticy. Jobless Consumer cant pay credit back, loses his House through Forced selling and gives it for peanutes to bank. Bank keeps this house waits couple or even 5 years till prices go into heaven - and sells it again to Cosumer. Pigish behavior will you say? Wellcome to capitalism and demoNcracy.
WHSELFINVEST:USTECH100CFD
by Gamechanger_001
Bond - Equity Correlation: The Most Important Question?TVC:US10Y TVC:NYA A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield equates to a bull market in bonds. In January, bonds were still in a technical bull market as defined by the broad declining channel that had contained the 40 year bull market. In March the break of that downtrend turned the macro trend from bullish to neutral. Now, all that is left to define a bearish trend is a substantive violation of the 3.25% pivot zone. More recently, after testing the major macro pivot in the 3.25% zone, ten year Treasury yields have fallen sharply. The decline begs the question: Is the decline the result of the decades long negative correlation between equity and fixed income reasserting itself on the back of equity weakness or is it simply the beginning of a relief rally created by the combination of major support and a deeply oversold condition? While it is too soon to answer the question with any degree of certainty, it is clear that the outcome will have vitally important macro/portfolio implications. My guess is that if equities continue to weaken, that the bonds will continue to do better, but that without the bid provided by flight-to-quality that the outlook for bonds will quickly deteriorate as the oversold condition is alleviated. In future posts I will provide a deeper dive into the shorter term technical and fundamental outlook for bonds, but the posts from January 2, 11, and February 9 should provide adequate background for now. Early in the year I published a five part market overview detailing my macro technical and fundamental views of the "Big 4" asset classes: Equities, Rates, Commodities and the Dollar. As part of that series I discussed the importance of the correlation between equities and bonds and the central role falling inflation played in creating the relationship. This inverse correlation is a historical anomaly, yet it drives much modern portfolio construction. The idea is that when equities decline sharply, flight to quality in bonds pushes rates lower (bond prices higher). In other words, gains in the bond portion of the portfolio partially hedge losses in the equity portfolio. Variations of the 60/40 portfolio construction (60% equities and 40% bonds) and risk parity strategies are intended to shield investors from the worst of equity declines and indeed have had an admirable track record of reducing return volatility. After decades of success, the amount of assets devoted to this strategy, both overt and passive, is staggeringly huge. If the historic positive correlation is reasserting itself due to a change in the trend of inflation (stocks down and bonds down), the subsequent unwind has the potential to create massive dislocation. In my view, the combination of extremely negative real rates (nominal rates less inflation), an inflation cycle that has turned from virtuous to vicious, and equity markets, that at least at the index level, are extremely overvalued, may be setting the stage for a polarity switch in which bond prices and equity prices fall and rise together. That has clearly been the case so far this year. Year-to-date (YTD) the bond composite has returned approximately -12% while the S&P has returned approximately -1%. In other words, both sides of 60/40 and risk parity portfolios have lost considerable value. If the year were to end now, it would be a historically bad year for the strategy. Is the switch in correlation a short term phenomenon or the start of something much larger? To my mind, this is the central question for the remainder of this year. I think the next few months will be telling. There is also the tension between high inflation and the growing odds of a significant recession. Not only does high inflation serve as an inhibiter to real economic growth, but so will the Federal Reserves (Fed) effort to return inflation to its long term trend. Paul Volcker had to create twin recessions to beat the great inflation. I doubt very much that this Fed will escape without having to make a similar choice. Notes: It is worth remembering that in an economy that is overly financialized and debt burdened, rising rates often break the weakest link in the economic chain. Weak links can be systemically important institutions, sectors or simply a dramatic sell off in the equity markets. That markets are currently in distress is clear. What isn't clear is that the distress is enough to create a systemic risk event. Bonds and equities frequently move into and out of positive and negative correlation in shorter time frames. When I talk about historical correlation I am referring to the very long term. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:US10YEducation
by CMT_Association
26
Bitcoin Price Projections Based on Fed Rate IncreasesTraders, We all know that the USD is still the global reserve currency. And who governs the strength or weakness of the dollar? Yours truly, JPOW and co. Crypto currency prices are absolutely without question tied to the broader markets and the U.S. dollar. Therefore, we MUST consider how our crypto lead dawg will respond to JPOW's rate decision. With that said, here's what I see in the cards for ole' BTC. Let's start with the worst-case scenario: JPOW rug pulls the market with an enormous 75 pt hike or more - we drop below our strong and very critical 37550 support, somewhere in the purple JPOW does the expected 50 point hike & either speaks to another 50 pts hike soon or insinuates such action - we remain below our multi-year resistance level and move sideways-ish, somewhere in the red JPOW does the expected 50 point hike & either speaks to another 25 pt hike soon or insinuates softer action going forward - we either remain red or it is possible we go yellow again JPOW only bumps it 25! - Rocket fuel! It's moon time again! Green area. 🚀🚀🚀 Watch closely, everything (and I mean EVERYTHING) hinges upon the FED today! Press release 2:30 EST (I believe). Best to you all, -Stewdam.us
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
2
GS has great upside with PB 1.08I believe that $GS is a great opportunity to buy at this levels, their PB ratio is 1.08 which is one of the best ratios compared to other American banks at this point. They are one if not the largest investment banks in the world and they are also paying a 2.58% dividend yield. Combine that with the rising rates that will give even better margins and I truly believe its a great long term buy from this levels. I am thinking of opening a substantial position at this point and looking forward to hear your thoughts on that.
NYSE:GSLong
by Louk_Min
Breakout Of the 40 Years Old DowntrendUS 10 year bond rates are important indicator for investors. If its go up, it means investors are selling their bonds expecting interest rate rise from FED. This is happening for over 1.5 year now. Investors are selling bonds because they think inflation coming and FED will act accordingly. High interest rates cause risky assets, like crypto and stock market, to lose value. In this Monthly chart, Something huge is happening with the 10 years right now. We were in a downtrend that started in 1981. We tested the trendline in 1984, 2007, 2018 but never able to break it out. Last months, breakout occured and we may retest the trendline before going up. Around 3.25 area seems to have a strong resistance. Also around 3.25 area, investors may want to buy bonds therefore 10y rates can pause their rise for a couple of months. The breakout of this decades long trendline may mean that, we entered a new period of high interest rates. But in the end everything will be decided by FEDs actions. Thanks. Follow for more information and charts about markets and global economy.
TVC:US10YLong
by thegreatwall38
EuroDollar Futures CurveThe EuroDollar futures market is pricing in rate hikes as seen by the upward slope on the left, but the peak of the curve (contracts which expire in June and September of 2023) suggests that investors believe rates will reach their high and then go down after that and keep going down well into the foreseeable future. This is an ominous sign that the Federal Reserve, and likely central banks all over the world, will be forced to abandon their current monetary policy tightening cycles and go back to near zero or zero rates once again (and likely quantitative easing of an unprecedented magnitude as well. $200B per month in treasuries?). Bottom line, the downward slope in yield marks the approximate time of the next recession, according to the bets that are currently on the table. As always, anything can happen and opinions can change. Buy the dip < Sell the rip
G
by The_Arena_Trader
9
The #1 Chart to WatchLadies and Gentlemen, please take your seats. (...the music stops) Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you! The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily. It most likely will be a depression via stagflation which we have never really experienced long-term. Our leaders won't admit it but *News Flash* the Supply Chains are NOT getting fixed like they were before. China has no incentive or interest to fix them and we are the world's biggest debtor. We got 20% of all our imports from them in 2021. That doesn't sound like a lot but that 20% is involved in the supply chains of 70-80% of our goods. The Chinese gov has already warned its people of the incoming food shortage and have been far more honest with their people than our Western leaders have been. Good luck in the New World Order! Courtesy of the World Gov. Summit 2022, the IMF, World Bank, etc. (Not Financial Advice, Just what I see.)
TVC:US10YLong
by MonetaryRebel
1
🔥 Bitcoin & The Federal Funds Rate: An Easy ExplanationEver since the FED has been talking about interest rates, I see questions popping up on social media where investors ask why the federal funds rate (also known as the FED interest rate) is so important for the stock and crypto markets. With this post I'd like to write an easy understandable explanation on what the FED funds rate is and why it is important. What is the FED funds rate? The FED funds rate is the interest rate set by the FOMC (the committee of the FED). This interest rate targets the rate at which commercial banks in the USA can lend and borrow excess money to each other. Higher rates means it's more expensive to borrow money for banks, lower rates make it cheaper. Why is it so important? The FOMC changes the rate in order to control inflation. Higher rates reduce the money supply because money is more expensive to get (borrow), whilst lower rates increase the money supply because it encourages spending. The latter has happened during the 2008 Financial crisis and the more recent Corona crisis. Encouraging people to spend money generally helps the economy. Rule of thumb: if the economy is in good shape, higher interest rates are needed to control inflation. If the economy is in bad shape, lower interest rates will encourage people to spend and can help turn things around. Should I be afraid of it? Generally, no. As seen on the BTC chart above, the only time that the FED has increased the rates it did not have a bearish effect on BTC. However, this was done during a period of lower inflation than we currently have. To combat the current inflation rates, the FED needs to increase the rate at a much faster and higher rate than what we have seen in the past 30 years. During the 1980's the interest rate was set to 20% in order to combat strong inflation, I'd argue the FED has to do that as well if they don't raise the raids much faster this year. The imposed rate hikes of 0.25% every meeting are not enough to reduce the 10% year-over-year inflation. In case the FED decides to raise the rates with big steps (>1% per meeting), this can definitely have a huge impact on the stock- and crypto-markets. It will become much more expensive for banks to borrow (and invest) money since money will become more scarce. There's no immediate danger for the markets. However, if inflation spirals out of control because the FED decides not to act (keep the rates low), they'd have to increase the rates much higher and quicker than everyone anticipates, which will trigger a big sell-off in the markets. In my view, this will be the start of the next crypto bear-market. The FED interest rates are most definitely an interesting, but also difficult topic. If you think that I've skipped an important part, please share your knowledge in the comment section. The more people know about it, the better.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FieryTrading
88