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TLT BreakThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning. The monthly exponential moving average (EMA) ribbons have experienced their worse violation in the fund's 20 year history. Typically the monthly EMA ribbons act as very strong long term support. The lower 55 month EMA band can act as a low risk to reward long entry. The price at which the monthly candle closes is determinative. Fortunately, there is roughly an 80% chance that the 20-year bull trend in the price of TLT will hold in March 2022. (This probability comes from the standard deviation from the monthly mean). So for now, at least, the trend is likely to continue. However, the chart suggests that the decades-long trend is dangerously close to breaking.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SpyMasterTrades
4
JICPT| US10Y entered new range above 2%Hello everyone. Finally Fed hiked the interest rate for the first time since 2018 by 25bps to combat the surging inflation issue. Before the FOMC meeting, forks have already expected 25bps hike against the backdrop of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On the weekly chart, it looks firmly conquered the 2% trouble level and entered a range with upper boundary of 2.63%. On the daily chart, I would expect it to retest the 2% zone. US10Y is the cost of fund for risk-free asset. The rising will definitely weigh on the stock market, particularly tech stocks. However, market may shrug off if earning reports beat expectation, suggesting faster growth. What do you think? Will the rising yield bother you?
TVC:US10YLong
by JICPT
1
Is the US Federal Reserve hiking 25 basis points tomorrow?The US Federal Reserve kicked off its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday, with the markets widely anticipating a 25 basis-point hike in what would be the first interest rate increase since 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had earlier raised the prospect of a 25bp hike, telling a House financial services committee hearing two weeks ago that he is "inclined to propose and support” the increase as inflation has sat above 2% and as the United States’ labor market continued to recover. High inflation underscores need for tightening With the US consumer inflation soaring to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February, a rate hike this week is highly anticipated, although uncertainty lies in how much the Fed will have to tighten to tame inflation. Markets are also pricing in up to six or seven hikes this year, one for each of the upcoming FOMC meetings. Higher inflation expectations among US consumers, according to surveys by the New York Fed and Cleveland Fed, also ramp up the likelihood of a more hawkish Fed. 50bp hike also on the table Although many market watchers anticipate a 25bp hike when the Fed caps off its meeting on Thursday, some economists say a 50bp is also likely. Last month, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a full percentage-point hike by July 1. ING Bank’s Chief International Economist James Knightley in a note last week said it wouldn’t be surprising “to see maybe two FOMC members vote for 50bp.” Knightley and other economists from the Dutch bank most recently said markets are back to pricing 160bp hikes in six meetings in total for 2022, although the Fed may have five rate hikes planned for the year. Russia-Ukraine war places Fed in a precarious spot However, the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has reached its third week, puts the Fed on alert due to expectations that the war could worsen inflation and result in a potential global economic recession that could derail the United States’ recovery momentum. Still, the Fed appeared to be undeterred by the crisis, with Powell saying in a recent speech to Congress that the near-term effects of the war and Western sanctions on Russia remain highly uncertain. "Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook,” Powell said. Squeezing household income A rate hike in the US — the first since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged — could further squeeze household income at a time when gas prices hover around record highs. Gasoline prices in the US surged to an all-time high of $4.33 on Friday, before retreating over the weekend, according to data from the American Automobile Association. Higher interest rates will raise borrowing costs in banks, lifting variable rates on credit card debt and affecting interests on auto loans and mortgages. This could further weigh on consumer’s spending habits.
by BlackBull_Markets
Can technical analysis infer the result of Fed Tightening?This chart uses a simple downtrend in order to predict the terminal fed funds rate, which I believe will be 150-175 basis points by March 2023. As we can see, the previous fed funds rate hikes under the current downtrend have resulted in periods of lower GDP growth as well as yield-curve inversions and very regularly precede lows in total US jobless claims (the two criteria for a slowdown to be considered a recession are two consecutive quarters of lower GDP growth as well as a trough in unemployment). Historically, sharp increases in oil prices have been consistent indicators of economic slowdowns and very rarely move to the upside with a significant degree of magnitude without preceding a recession or at least a period of stock-market volatility.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by citrinityx
$OPEN - Falling Through the Trap DoorA good trading friend of mine asked for a fresh set of eyes on $OPEN. I figured I would share here. I don't like the impersonal style of this company. When people sell a home- they want a personal relationship with their realtor. Anyone with their chops would tell you it's best to expose the house to the market and let a bidding war take place. This model is smart, but I would never suggest friends or family use Opendoor. Considering higher rates coming and dropping home sale numbers, look for this name to continue to fall further after a failed breakout and rejection. Especially after missing earnings recently. More information about $OPEN from their website: "Opendoor is a leading digital platform for residential real estate. In 2014, we set out to reinvent life’s most important transaction with a new, radically simple way to buy and sell your home. We have rebuilt the entire consumer real estate experience and have made buying and selling possible on a mobile device. We’ve served tens of thousands of customers who have come to Opendoor to make their moves easier. Whether it’s getting married, starting a family, taking a new job or simply making a life change, we help people get to their next chapter in one simple, seamless transaction. Our mission is to empower everyone with the freedom to move. Opendoor currently operates in a growing number of cities and neighborhoods across the country. A full view of the markets we serve can be found here. Headquartered in San Francisco, we are a team of problem solvers, innovators, and operators building the largest, most trusted platform for residential real estate."
NASDAQ:OPENShort
by jaykenneyTRT
CADJPY Sell IdeaCADJPY has been in a solid uptrend for some time now however the price has been unable to past the recent high of 91.00. The RSI levels on the 30m and 1hr time frame are in very oversold regions which indicates that price could fall from here. On the 2hr time frame, there is some selling pressure appearing on the recent candle which also adds to our short bias. The target of this trade is located near the 90.100 area and our stop-loss is just above the 90.840 level.
Short
by Orion-Markets
AUDCAD - Our Forex Trade TodayCAD could be on the up rise for 2 main reasons: 1. Oil prices are sky-rocketing and the Canadian dollar is co-rellated to Oil. Oil up, CAD also Up 2. Rate Hike is inbound. The Bank of Canada’s First Rate Hike Since 2018 Expected This Week. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to increase its overnight target rate on Wednesday morning. Despite the market uncertainty unleashed by the current geopolitical crisis in Ukraine, the Bank’s hands appear to be tied given the headline inflation in January soared to a 30-year high of 5.1%. The target rate, upon which prime rate and variable-rate mortgages are priced, has been at 0.25% since March 2020, when the Bank cut rates at an emergency meeting at the start of the pandemic. Here’s a look at what some economists and analysts are saying in the lead-up to one of the most highly anticipated Bank of Canada meetings in years. So, we are Long on Canadian dollar for valid, Fundamental Reasons but why AUD on the other side of the pair and not EUR(that was our second option) on Turkish Lira or Russian ruble for example? The answer is in the chart. Price is offering us a nice technical entry level and we are taking it. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
Short
by FX_Professor
2
US10Y in-depth analysis - Why I think we will see Gold above 2k In this video I am going to show you why I think that we will have a major decreas e in bonds price this year. This is due to the fact that we are currently trading in a wedge shape , or a so-called Elliot Wave Diagonal which is characterized by a 5-Waves-Pattern , of which every inner wave is shorter than the first impulsive wave. Fundamentally spoken, I do assume that rate hiking might already priced in the current Dollar and Bond prices. Therefore FED rate hike announcement might be the catalyst for several sell-off waves. If you liked this analysis, please leave a like a comment and a subscription. Thanks. RT
TVC:US10YShort
0
by RT_Trading_
2
10 Year Rate: Price keeps moving up!Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1D Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It has broken out of the top trendline of the falling channel with a recent re-test of the S/R line. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges (LONG-TERM). The measured move is noted. 4) There was a Bull Flag Pattern forming on the charts within the falling channel pattern, which helped the price move higher. The measured move for the SHORT-TERM is noted. 5) I discussed this breakout in the first week of December 2021 when the price was still at around 1.40ish. PAY ATTENTION! What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
3
$DXY needs to hodl the line 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* FOMC meeting next week, February 16, 2022. Here are our expectations for $DXY. !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:DXYLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Fed funds futures pricing in 5 rate hikes in 2022?Economists are forecasting anything from 3 to 7 hikes in 2022 while the Fed funds futures market appear to be pricing in at least 5 rate hikes in 2022, starting with the first, a 25bp hike, at the March FOMC meeting. The Fed's current target range is 0 to 0.25%. March futures (ZQH2022) imply a rate of 0.23 suggesting that the lower target rate will be raised from 0 to 0.25. Assuming the the Fed sticks with a 25bp increment, the futures currently are pricing in at least 5 hikes as we see May futures (ZQK2022) implying a rate of 0.565, July (ZQN2022) implying 0.79, October (ZQV2022) with 1.06 & Dec (ZQZ2022) with 1.235.
CBOT:ZQG2022
by pete9564
Markets price in five Fed rate hikes in 2022, cut by 2025Fed policy bets are evolving, which may explain why gold has managed an upswing alongside the S&P 500 while the US Dollar has fallen so far in February. Policymakers’ increasingly assertive posture on stimulus withdrawal coupled with supportive economic data – most recently, January’s payrolls report – have driven up near-term rate hike expectations. The longer view has softened, however. Fed funds futures imply that the push to price in five 25bps rate hikes for 2022 has likewise seen the 2023 outlook soften, from three such increases to two. A single rise seems to have drifted out to 2024, implying adjustment to a more gradual path after fireworks this year. Strikingly, a cut is now priced in for 2025.
by IlyaSpivak
Big Four Macro Overview: Part 5For more detail please refer to the first four pieces in the series (linked below) and the accompanying charts. Markets entered 2022 with well established trends and trading ranges, but I believe that the coming year holds significant potential for change. This is particularly true in the equity and treasury markets. Because much of the outlook hinges on inflation (see below) it will be particularly important to monitor inflation related markets. Importantly, while it's easy to make the case that rates should rise significantly this year, modern financial history suggests that rising rates are likely to break the most vulnerable financial link. If that link has the ability to create systemic disruption, rates will fall again, even if inflation is high, as the market runs to the quality of treasuries. In my opinion, the most important trend of the last four decades has been the decline and subsequent quiescence in the inflation rate. Falling and low inflation allowed Treasury rates to decline. Falling Treasury rates supported equity valuations and home prices. They also enabled the wholesale financialization of the economy and allowed both public and private entities to add leverage without consequence. Importantly low and steady inflation also created the negative correlation between treasury and equity. Without that correlation 60/40 and risk parity strategies may well be in danger. Inflation: My working thesis has been that many of the trends that supported disinflation have reversed and that rising inflation will act as a headwind to investment for the next decade. Going into 2020 I believed that the stage for higher inflation had already been set and that higher inflation would result in higher rates and ultimately equities. Consider that in early 2020: • The output gap had closed for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis. • The economy had just reached full employment with a U-3 Unemployment rate @ 3.5%. • Wages as measured by the Employment Cost Index were rising @ +4.4% YOY rate. • The Cleveland Fed Median CPI had recently set a 10 year high. If not for the pandemic, by early 2021. the Federal Reserve would have been forced to respond to rising inflation by increasing rates. Instead, Covid crushed the demand side of the economy, derailing the growing inflation. Now the extreme fiscal and monetary response combined with disruptions in logistics and labor have combined to create very high inflation. While I think that many of the issues creating this burst of inflation are moderating, the same set of factors that were reversing in 2020 are still in place. In short, I believe that the broader trend has changed and that when everything settles out, will end up significantly in excess of the Feds 2% average target. Bottom Line: Above trend growth in inflation and monetary/fiscal tightening suggest higher volatility and a significant chance that many of the trends that have defined the last few decades will falter. My sense of the economy is that the best growth has already occurred as the result of historically supportive fiscal and monetary policies and now both paths are turning restrictive (see the second part of this series for a more in depth discussion) and markets will likely reflect that reality. Rates: • Bonds remain in a bull market defined by a broad declining channel, but rising inflation could easily change the trend. The most likely catalyst to end keep rates below 3.25% would be a financial accident created by higher rates. Equities: • SPX remains in a technical bull market and there are no overtly bearish behaviors evident in the longest perspectives. However short term weakness can easily morph into a bear market. Commodities: • Goldman Sachs Commodities index is in the center of a broad 14 year range, bounded essentially by the low set during the financial crisis and the resultant 2011 high. range. The most notable/useful current chart feature is the clear uptrend from the 2020 pandemic low. Until that uptrend is broken, the most immediate trend is to higher prices. US Dollar: • The wide macro range, 70.70 - 121.02 has contained price action over most of my trading career but volatility is more cyclical than price. These periods of low vol. set up conditions that often lead to explosive moves. Now, back to the charts! Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by CMT_Association
57
THE 40 YEAR BEAR MARKET IN 10 YEAR TREASURY NOTE INTEREST RATEThe attached chart shows 40 years of declining 10 year rates. As we all know, that rate is the basis for mortgage rates and just about everything else. During that half cycle the housing market boomed, the stock market boomed and generally speaking, corporations and individuals prospered. But that trend has ended. Thursday I would have said that rates would either remain low for an indefinite period while inflation soared or rates would be raised to quell inflation. But Friday Central Banks around the world announced tightening. The party is over! It is time to batten down the hatches, lock in long term profits on stocks, rentals and any other investments that correlate inversely with interest rates. Obviously the major players saw this coming and started bailing at the first of2022. Now us little fish must do what we can to avoid losing the wealth we have. As an aside, it was announced last year that Bill Gates was diversifying into farm land. Obviously that anticipates food shortages and inflation............. I will post more on this once the picture becomes clearer. midnitepoet
TVC:TNXShort
by midnitepoet
DJI WEEKLY - FIB RETRACEMENT - CORRECTION MODE - MEGAPHONEFollowing along with the MEGAPHONE theme from a previous chart taking the first touch of the MEGAPHONE TOP, as the top. Being a weekly chart, we need to see the weekly close below the RIBBON for CONFIRMATION that we are indeed heading into a period of CORRECTION. Given that the FEDERAL RESERVE will meet next week and have already stated that they will not move in to bolster the stock market I hazard a guess that the DOW will continue its current downward trend. As we all know the FED is slow to respond as that is the nature of the data cycle, they are at least 3-6 months behind real-world. We also need to keep in mind that the FED is an INFLATION fighting mode which means they will be announcing a rate rise of 25 basis points at the very least for a MARCH START, which the market has already priced in. My gut feeling is that they need to raise rates by 50 basis points to douse inflation, which the market has not priced in. We have a CHINESE NEW YEAR coming up and harsh WARNINGS FROM the WEF and DAVOS. Take care and stay safe. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
TVC:DJIShort
by alphamindset