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10Y YIELD CRATERING SOON? EXTREME FEAR EXPECTED IN 1Q OF 2022Hello traders & investors! As we look into the beginning of 2022 and use 10Y as our guide - expect enormous amount of fear coming to the markets/news channels/politician speeches.. I am expecting 40-50% correction on this 10 Year treasury. Cash will flow into bonds and DXY should strengthen at the same time too :) That being said, I expect this to unfold in first half of 2022. Multi-year and decade long views does not change - rates will climb much faster & higher. We have nice place to enter the markets in the times of extreme fear. Levels to watch: 1.52% & 0.90% Take care! This is not a financial advice.
TVC:US10YShort
by Patrikas10
2
10 Year Rates: Daily and Weekly Perspective: Important JunctureA reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices while rising bond yields are synonymous with lower bond prices. In other words, a yield downtrend is the same thing as a bull market in bonds. Last week we published macro overviews of rates and equities that should be referred to for context. 1) A weekly close above the 1.77% would represent the first time since the February 2020 - 0.33% low print that rates will have managed to set higher highs. This would represent a significant change in the markets behavior. 2) The market is currently testing the confluence of resistance generated by the pivot high (1.77%), the top of the channel from the August 2021 low, and the roughly 50% retracement of the 3.25% to 0.33% decline. The confluence should provide signficant resistance. 3) Combined with the oversold condition of the RSI oscillator (remember that rising yields = lower prices, so a high oscillator reading is oversold) it is reasonable to monitor the daily and hourly charts for tradable reversal behaviors. We will cover some of these behaviors and patterns in future posts. 4) At the very least the resistance confluence should create a period of consolidation. 5) The caveat is that longs would not be in harmony with either the weekly and monthly charts, which appear to be setting up for an extended period of rising rates. 6) With both weekly and monthly charts appearing to be in the midst of a signficant change of trend, a break out wouldn't be particularly surprising. 7) At important junctures like this, I typically adapt an, "If this happens, then I do this" trading approach. After all, the market can only do one of a very few behaviors. a. It can breakout and run. In which case finding a trade with solid risk reward becomes impossible. Move to a different market and find a trade. b. It can breakout, move higher and then make a clear consolidation pattern (for instance a flag or a pennant). You can buy breakout with risk stops below the pattern. c. It can upthrust the range (make a false breakout) and fail. This is by far my favorite trading pattern. We will cover it extensively in future posts. What fundamental could produce a produce a reversal? Equity weakness that produces a flight to safety is the most likely candidate. But note that SPX saw a strong reversal yesterday and this mornings dip attracted buyers. But, again, refer to part two of the macro overview for context. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:US10YEducation
by CMT_Association
26
Government Bond Yield Surge - US2Y, US5Y, US10YThe crypto & stonk killer. Rates have been exceptionally low because of crisis. Look back to 2009. They went up in 2016 for a little bit while donnie complained. (he wanted that easy money because he tweeted about stonks his entire time in office). They drifted lower thereafter and then BAM! Another crisis the government had to print through. Where did all the PPP money go??? Kodak? DWAC? Nobody knows. Frauds abundant and the Fed will now run-off their near $9T balance sheet and start lifting rates. Plebs keep buying $SPY & Tesla calls or Simpcoins. #clueless Should be an epic show. *valuations matter Rates will bust the Fed's 2% Long Term average goal with ease. Crypto kids will go broke and they should blame their doge daddy for pumping them for personal gain. The "trillion" dollar companies will implode. Shibby Bitty too. All of it. GL
TVC:US02YLong
by EpicEconomics
Buckle up!Dear reader How nice to see you again. I have been busy with public and private clients since 2020, and although I continue to take a keen interest in markets and etc, I no longer have much time other than the (very) occasional consultancy for detailed writings. I am looking for a solution as even the weekends cannot tempt me back into regular updates! There are a couple of trades though that I hear interesting things about - whether they will be suitable for your portfolios, I do not know, but they may be worth considering: Stay Long USDJPY looking for 150, and Short Gold for 1510. Full disclosure I am in full positions in both, Long USDJPY we have covered in great detail already, as with Gold . My in-depth knowledge of the commodity sector is decreasing now as I am further away from it, but from what I hear, these two are capable both medium and long term. I hope this information might be useful to you. I would be grateful for anonymity as a source. Wish you all the best for Q1. Thanks again!
Long
by ridethepig
5
EURNZD - another shortBased on the daily chart, the N100 stock index has grown today and the oil seems to be stabilizing preparing for growth. Both of the two assets are anti-correlating to the EURNZD pair which I explained several times in both educational articles and pair-delegated ideas. Furthermore, NZD did increase its interest rates. This would normally lead to NZD growth, hence EURNZD's drop. However, the drop has not started yet and although it never has to, it just doesn't have to work like that single time, I do believe that the recent rally was driven by a lot of fear in the commodity markets as the following chart explains. The commodity index CRB has just started dropping. Baltic Dry Index has been for some time, which is an average for shipping costs calculated every day. I will be opening another short in this market at some point. I am waiting for price action now.
Short
by OrcChieftain
1
Bond to Bitcoin CorrelationHere is a brief correlation between bitcoin and bond price action. Hope you find this useful! I haven't been posting much due to what's going on in the economy. Switching up my approach. We all know when bonds rise, yields fall. When bonds fall, yields rise. Think about this when reading this chart. Good luck to the HODL! Feel free to follow or simply keep up. I'm working on getting better always so bare with me. We all know what kind of journey this is! Would love your support!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Redimere_91
EURNZD: As rates increase, the currency growsNew Zealand national bank increased rates from 0.25 to 0.50 points. It doesn't take a genius to imagine how that impacts the price of the EURNZD pair. With higher interest rates, it is more beneficial for the banks to hold NZD. Plus this pair was in a downtrend before that. The most recent lows are broken ( dashed green ). A somewhat recent low meets a 2019 swing low of around 1.63 - this could be a temporary stop for the price ( green, transparent green ). A descending channel could be drawn here stretching from this June 2021 till Now. If I project its biggest breakout under the channel's angle, I will get the same support around 1.63 If the market believes that European Central Bank may increase the rates as well, the price should make another short-term bottom there. If it does, one of the broken supports will be tested, perhaps it will even reach the middle of the channel. Is it likely though? Indebted Italy and Greece would be in trouble if the rates on their debts increased further. I don't know about future fundamentals, but I think some long entries will be found in the area - especially on lower timeframes and I plan to join!
by OrcChieftain
1
Stocks To Watch This WeekThe Market's longer term uptrend still intact. Interest rates are driving the market.. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 21 total stocks on this list Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
NYSE:LYVLong
by Jtacher51
22
Rates Breakout - Be Cautious on the ramifications24/Sep/2021 08:22 AM AUTHOR: Brandon Gum -- 10 yr yield is breaking out. This is after they were down 5% on Monday of this week on Evergrande default contagion fears. Fed met this week. They indicated tampering(?) Sentiment trader suggested that lots of money managers are not positioned for a move higher in rates and to be careful of your positioning and know what you own. IWM should outperform (as they do with rising rates - though I dont understand the text book theory behind this. Regional banks should do well in rising rate environment. Growth names that leverage cheap capital will be hit. No comments on other sectors. Im not there in my development yet. ======================
TVC:TNX
by gumbtg
USD INFLATION!FUNDAMENTALS- the ONLY "Major" news we have this week is the USD inflation data on Wednesday 8/11 @ 8:30AM est ... Now we've seen what NFP has done already. Dollar soared because bloomberg revised down the expectations due to a poor ADP, (check 2 post ago), but NFP wasnt bad. Now i can see US inflation CPI data to continue it's trend of coming in WAYYY over expectations! TECHNICALS - 12Hr W on NZD & there's also more room to grow on the DXY. I can see NZD testing the bottom of the range for ANOTHER test then. FUNDAMENTAL SIDENOTE - NZD RAISES RATES NEXT WEEK FROM .10% TO .25% .. SO U MIGHT WANNA REALLY GET RRADY TO BUY IT AFTER THE SELL OFF STOP .693 - I FORGOT TO EDIT THAT PART IN ! :(
by SlattYSL
3
STOP STOP HUNTING!!!THIS IS THE DEFINITION OF A STOP HUNT! we've all seen how the dollar has exploded over the past couple of days but NZD is not giving up without a fight you can see that every time the kiwi goes below .695 on the weekly candle it rushes back up before the week is over. now fundamentally speaking, WE KNOW the RBNZ (New Zealand Central Bank) will be raising rates next month from the current .25%. & WE KNOW THE SMART THING TO DO IS TO PUT OUR MONEY INA STRONG CURRENCY WITH HIGH INTEREST RATES, ESPECIALLY AGAINST LOW ONES JPY( -.10%) CHF(-.75%), & USD (.25),which happens to be all the "SAFE HAVEN" currencies i cannot be the only one looking ahead and seeing the true potential of the KIWI. nzdusd must go to .7315 (400+ PIPS) nzdchf must go to .662 (250+ PIPS) nzdjpy MUST GO TO 83.9 (800+ PIPS)
Long
by SlattYSL
3
Most Valuable StockApple is the most valuable publicly traded company ($2.37T) behind Saudi Aramco. This title has been rightfully earned as the company continues to deliver in customer loyalty, growing services business, and continued product development pipeline. This stock has continuously made all-time highs since its inception and is currently within 1% of its all-time high of $143.15. Technically, there are three indicators that show favorable future price action. 1) The company is not in an overbought condition according to the MACD. 2) The company has tested its previous resistance of low $140s multiple times. 3) The company Price-to-Earning ratio has consolidated as earnings have risen in the past couple of months Furthermore, as interest rates have been low this company is a safe bet to outperform due to its historical growth. This provides a sense of risk-free return, a great hedge in the current high-valued market. Finally, there has been significant call buying recently further ratifying the potential for a breakout.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by howdydany
The Dollar Index Breaks Higher - A MirageAfter trading at the highest level since 2002 during the risk-off period when COVID-19 spread worldwide like a wildfire, the US dollar index fell, making lower highs and lower lows from March 2020 through January 2021. The index fell from 103.96 to a low of 89.165, a 14.2% decline in the index that measures the dollar against other world reserve currencies. The Fed tightens without tightening credit The dollar index breaks above a technical level The greenback remains in a medium-term bearish trend The long-term trend is higher Fiat currency moves are a mirage for one critical reason After consolidating around the 90 level from mid-May through mid-June, the dollar index took off on the upside in the aftermath of the latest Fed meeting. While the dollar has moved higher and eclipsed a short-term technical resistance level, the medium-term trend remains bearish. To confuse matters, the long-term trend dating back to 2008 is bullish for the US dollar index. Governments and monetary authorities manage currency markets to provide stability for global financial markets. Meanwhile, the overall foreign exchange market is more than a mirage because it is not readily apparent if the asset class gains or loses value in a larger sense. The bottom line is that the dollar and other fiat currencies rely on the full faith and credit of the governments that issue the legal tender. The dollar may be rallying against other currencies, but it can also be losing purchasing power making the entire currency market a farce. The Fed tightens without tightening credit At the June Federal Market Committee meeting, the US central bank left the short-term Fed Funds intact at zero to twenty-five basis points. The committee said it would leave its quantitative easing program unchanged and continue to purchase $120 billion in debt securities each month. The only change was a slight increase of five basis points in the reverse repo rate. The bottom line is the Fed continued on its accommodative monetary policy path. Meanwhile, the central bank increased its GDP growth forecast from 6.5% to 7% and its inflation expectations from 2.5% to 3.4%. While very little changed, the rhetoric shifted towards tighter credit policies as the Fed acknowledged rising inflationary pressures. Seven committee members project a rate hike in 2022, with two expecting two increases in the Fed Funds rate. The markets viewed the statements and rhetoric as a sign that tighter policy is on the horizon and tapering QE will occur sooner rather than later. Commodity prices fell in the wake of the Fed meeting as rising interest rates increase the cost of carrying raw material inventories and financing production. The dollar moved higher as interest rate differentials are a critical factor for the value of one currency versus another. The dollar index breaks above a technical level The dollar index took off on the upside in the wake of the June FOMC meeting, surpassing a short-term technical resistance level. The daily chart of the September dollar index futures contract illustrates the move above the May 5 91.41 high on June 16, the day after the June Fed meeting. The index rose to a high of 92.395 on June 18 before correcting. At the end of last week, the September dollar index settled at the 91.844 level, above the breakout level at 91.41, which is now technical support. The prospects for higher US interest rates were bullish winds in the dollar’s sails. The greenback remains in a medium-term bearish trend While the dollar index rose above a technical resistance level, the greenback remains in a bearish medium-term trend despite the recent rally. The weekly chart shows that the index has made lower highs and lower lows since March 2020. To negate that bearish trading pattern, it needs to rise above the critical resistance level at the 93.47 level from the week of March 29, 2021. If the dollar index stalls and fails to rise above that high, it will put in another lower peak to continue the bearish trend over the past fourteen months. The long-term trend is higher To confuse matters, the dollar index’s long-term technical picture remains bullish over the past thirteen years. The quarterly chart highlights a pattern of higher lows and higher highs for the dollar index since reaching a bottom at 70.805 in early 2008. With a bullish short-term trend, a bearish medium-term pattern, and a bullish long-term trend, the path of least resistance of the US currency against other world reserve currency remains in doubt. However, it may not matter if the dollar index moves higher or lower against the euro, yen, pound, and other leading fiat currencies. The index could be a mirage masking the overall weakness in the foreign exchange arena. Fiat currency moves are a mirage for one critical reason The foreign exchange market only measures the value of one currency versus another. The price differentials tell us nothing about purchasing power other than if one foreign exchange instrument is trending higher or lower against another. The recent rise in the dollar index that followed on the heels of a more hawkish tone from the Fed could be a mirage. The bottom line is the dollar’s purchasing power has been declining. The May CPI data shows a 5% increase and a 3.8% rise, excluding food and energy. While many commodity prices corrected lower in June, crude oil and natural gas made new multi-year highs. The energy commodities power the US and the world. Rising prices are inflationary. Inflation erodes the value of money, making it more expensive for consumers to purchase essentials. While the dollar index recovered from the 90 to around the 92 level, the move is a mirage that masks the long-term trend in all fiat currencies. In 2019 and 2020, gold reached a record high in all fiat currency terms. Gold in euros, pounds, yen, dollars and most other foreign exchange instruments rose to record levels. Central banks hold gold as an integral part of their foreign exchange reserves, making the yellow metal a reserve currency alongside the dollar and the euro. The bottom line is that inflationary pressures continue to rise. The dollar index could continue to power higher over the coming days, weeks, and months, but the US currency could be weakening at the same time. A pivot towards a more hawkish approach to US monetary policy may lift the US currency, but that may only make the dollar the healthiest horse in the glue factory. Click the link below to register for the Free Monday Night Strategy Call Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
ICEUS:DX1!
by Andy_Hecht
XAUUSD 15M EntryMorning Traders, Quick 15M entry here on Gold, the metal has been consolidating over the last 24 hours, most likely in preparation for the number of Fed speeches coming up this week including Chair Powell's speech this afternoon. The metal looks hesitant to move bearish or bullish after a strong week by the dollar last week, with the fed announcing interest hikes in 2023 (earlier than expected). After the USD strong finish to last week, the bulls retreated and avoided attempting to recover any lost ground. This week however the metal could make a bullish charge toward 1800 as the interest rate hike news dies down and reality hits many that the pandemic is still ongoing (though ending soon hopefully) and that we are still going to experience many more shocks and waves from the pandemic and government spending. The cliche of unprecedented times is never so evident as it is right now with US inflation surging and the S&P 500 hitting all time highs. However, on the 15M chart we can see a false breakout of the 15 minute trend only to see the metal return within its trend lines, the metal broke the trend and pushed at 1785 for only an hour so before returning to the gradual climb we've seen over the start of this week. This may have dragged a few bulls into earlier than anticipated positions for the push towards 1800 but we are now seeing some reinforcing analysis on the opposite side of the trend with Gold breaking the lower trend line and pushing towards 1775 in the midst of the Asian session. We are sitting in the middle of another false breakout which is prime position to take up stance for the return to trend and a hoorah towards 1800 as we push for the psychological level and hope to turn the resistance to support. The sheer fact that the hawkish turn by the fed has turned so many heads and created such volatility shows cloudiness within the markets and really highlights the weird and uncertain times that we are in. I feel the fed will turn towards caution after the market reaction and will urge caution within Fed powell's speech. This will ultimately drive us towards the 1800 mark as metals are safe havens during uncertainty and the suggestion of caution will only reiterate further confidence into the metal over the next few weeks. Hope you enjoy and happy trading!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by KaineArkinson1
TLT. for chuck555. Hope you like it.I think the way the markets are all linked and pull and push on one another is really fascinating, however, in most of the books I've read it says that you should stay away from that type of predictive trading and just do what the market is showing you on the charts. I think trying to piece everything together is fun, but again, I've read so many accounts of traders who place positions because they think they know what the market is going to do, then the news comes out exactly as they predicted and the market accommodates by twisting and bending in a way they were not expecting. For this reason, I like to keep it simple. This is probably why I'm only joining trends midway through, but I'm not placing life changing positions. Still, I think it's all very interesting, and today I learned a little bit about the correlation between bonds, inflation, and rates expectations. Inflation up = interest rates up. Interest rates up = bonds down. Bonds down = stocks up. Stocks up = gold down? gold down = what? and where does bitcoin fit into this? How much does a sailboat cost?
NASDAQ:TLT
by emehoke
2