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USD/JPY: time to sellUSD/JPY: time to sell. Infact the price has broken down the last key short-term static support. It is identified by 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement and placed at 109.35. After violating both key dynamic supports on weekly time frame (EMA 20 and 200 periods). Technically the price is set to a further downtrend. It is continuing this short/very short-term downtrend. This should lead it as the last step to retesting the first really important support. It could be found on the 78.6% of the Fibonacci retracement (set at 104.9). Before this, there are only static supports of secondary importance, which should not be able to bounce the price and reverse the trend. Obviously if the macroeconomic scenario does not change. This fundamental scenario is always uncertain in the eyes of investors, who are turning to the Japanese currency, using it as a "safe haven". This trade tensions between the US and China are tracing back all the major world lists. So on USD/JPY: time to sell and we will wait for a confirmation on the weekly closing before set any trades. If it closes below 109.3 we will position ourselves short; vice versa we will enter long with a very short term position as for us the main trend remains bearish.
Short
by BFCMInvest
Is silver a safe commodity ?Is silver a safe commodity ? This is the main question. In the short, maybe yes. The price of silver has once again returned to lateralize in this channel. Between static support at 14.07 and static resistance at $ 14.75 an ounce. Until one of the two is violated, the trend remains flat. So speculators will tend to trade this commodity on very short time frames. In any case, from a technical point of view, the silver seems to be directed towards the support just mentioned. In any case, from a technical point of view, the silver seems to be directed towards the support just mentioned. A test of the area around $ 14 will trigger a series of long entries by investors, who will keep the positions in the medium period, keeping them in their portfolios up to the maximum target between 16.50 and 17 dollars. Coinciding with the dynamic resistance zone identified by the EMA200 periods. Basically, this raw material tends to start rising again immediately. The tensions caused by a trade war between the USA and China, the political and economic instability that plagues Europe and a possible return to an even more restrictive monetary policy by the United States, will lead investors to take refuge and differentiate their portfolio with assets such as silver and gold, or other precious materials. Operative ideas So, as we said before: Is silver a safe commodity ? Maybe with this strategy. Having said that, it is advisable to start to position ourself long on the SILVER and increase if the price falls to the support indicated, from a purely technical point of view. As a first target we can hypothesize the resistance of the channel in which the price is lateralized ($ 14.75). If it is broken to the upside, you will see an acceleration of the price up to the second target in area 15.23. The short-term final target is located close to $ 15.74 an ounce.
TVC:SILVERLong
by BFCMInvest
The price of eur/usd is moving now!The price of eur/usd is moving now! It stopped below the dynamic resistance identified by the EMA20 daily. So it did not complete the movement that we expected this week. The analysts had expected a slight decline in the US dollar against the other majors because of the FED conference, the announcement of the pay slips of the non-agricultural sector and the level of unemployment. The price is going to look for the static resistance set around 1.13 on this pair. For after the announcement of Trump on the new duties that will be imposed on China, the USD has strengthened again. We close at Break Even the bullish position that we had opened on EURUSD. Technical point of view The main trend remained unchanged. The final target is reachable within a few months among the static supports set at 1.10-1.08. There wasn't the rebound we expected, is now very likely that it will continue in this downtrend.From here (1.12) the price should start to go down and re-test the non-key static support at 1.112 within a few sessions. Once tested and broken to the downside there will be confirmation of a channeling on the part of this change projected to the downside. Here the price will bounce between the upper and lower side until it reaches the minimum of the period which will presumably be the area around 1.08. Fundamental point of view Even the fundamental scenario supports this view. The European Central Bank will continue to adopt an expansive policy, devaluing the Euro. The FED does not intend to take steps back by cutting rates and reviewing its monetary policy. Trading ideas The price of eur/usd is moving now and the possible TPs that we will set for this pair are: -the first one on the support of the 1.112.-the second on that of the 1,104.-the third on the final target at 1.08 and coinciding with 78.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. The analysis will be invalidated at the break of the resistance zone in the 1.146 area.
Long
by BFCMInvest
The price of nzd/usd broke again the supportThe price of nzd/usd broke again the static support identified by 78.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. It's placed at 0.662 and the pair close the last week below it. Technically the trend has been declining since February 2018. It's starting from the area on 0.75 and has lost over 10 cents. Then bounced back to form this last wave of correction started in November 2018. This wave is ending its strength and is returning to the previous level, leading the price to break the support mentioned above. All the main indicators and moving averages are projected downwards on short and medium term time frames. Moreover on monthly tf you can see a figure almost at the end of its conformation. Started in August 2015, this Head-shoulders is reaching its final phase with the right shoulder completed for 50%. Within a few weeks you should see a retest of the support area from which this figure started, ranging from about 0.634 to about 0.62. This scenario is strongly supported by the macroeconomic studies. Thanks to the monetary policy that the two central banks of the respective countries are adopting, this downtrend should not change. In fact, in one hand the FED has slowed down its strongly restrictive policy. This by meeting the needs of the markets to Trump's requests. Without cutting rates and about to resume it. On the other hand, the New Zealand central bank, in the meeting of this night or in the next month, it will cut rates. This cut should be from 1.75% to 1.50%. This will cause a further devaluation of the New Zealand currency. The price of nzd/usd broke again the static support, for this reason we recommend "short-term" short entry with the first TP at 0.649, according to TP at 0.642 and final target at 0.627. the SL will be set above the EMA20 weekly periods at 0.674.
Short
by BFCMInvest
EurUsd price broke again the resistanceEUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.. It is returning to the side channel that has been stalling since October. This channel is formed by the static resistance at 1.151 and the support just mentioned (1.118). The main trend of this pair has been set down for more than a year. Due to the opposing monetary policies adopted by the respective central banks. In this period, in the short/very short term, after the slowdown declared by the Fed, that will leave the rates unchanged even in tomorrow's session, a slight weakness is expected from the US dollar against the other majors. An upward breach of 1.133 will bring the price to test the subsequent static resistance, set at 1.138. A rejection by that level will bring the price back below 1.12 sanctioning a continuation of the main downtrend that will bring EURUSD to touch the 1.10 psychological support very soon. To summarize EUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.
Long
by BFCMInvest
The price of the NIKKEI is above the key resistanceThe price of the NIKKEI is above the key resistance formed by the two EMAs (20 and 200 periods) daily and by 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement. With this weekly closing above 22070 points, it is very likely that the price goes directly to the target. The next is in the area about  22900 points. Coinciding with 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. This level will be very important from now to the next few weeks. In fact, if it is reached, it will be a watershed between a continuation of this short-term uptrend with the absolute maximum goals, or a rejection which will cause a retracement of over 1300 points. Basically, it seems that the first hypothesis is the most probable. The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged (it confirmed the deposit rate at -0.1% and the Japanese government bond yield target of 10 years around zero) and has committed to keeping interest rates very low at least until the spring of 2020. The BoJ also announced its new inflation forecasts. Noting that the 2% target will not be reached before 2022, despite years of ultra-accommodating monetary policy. This will keep the Japanese index stable. It should maintain a lateral/bullish trend in the short and medium therm.
TVC:NI225Long
by BFCMInvest
The price of gbp/jpy broke the support zoneThe price of gbp/jpy broke the support zone. The one identified by the EMAs 20 and 200 periods and by 50% of the Fibonacci retracement, on a daily time frame. Violating the whole area between 145.60 and 145.00 and confirming the closing below it, the price will continue this downtrend. The next target that coincides with the first key static support is at around 142.80. Once up to this point, the sales on this exchange should continue up to the final target of up to 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement set at 140.45. This technical scenario is supported by the fundamental one. With the "Brexit" situation still in development and far from a definitive conclusion, the pound is devaluing in the short term. This trend will continue at least until the end of the summer. This deadline granted from the EU to London to make a decision. On the other hand, although the Bank of Japan has declared that it is ready to implement an even more expansive monetary policy by stimulating the Japanese economy with further injections of money, it now seems intent on maintaining the line declared during the last meeting. Meanwhile, rumors are circulating on the markets. Japan has signed an agreement with China for the mutual purchase of ETFs. As part of an agreement called the "ETF Connectivity Agreement", Tokyo and Beijing would have agreed on the need to allow the fund managers of both countries to invest in the ETF market of their respective counterparts. This would be giving the yen some stability. It should continue to gain value against other majors in the short term. So, to conclude, we recommend a short entry with a target area in the 140.45 area; intermediate target i 142.7.
Short
by BFCMInvest
The price of usd/jpy is not able to break upThe price of usd/jpy is not able to break up the static resistance. This because of the macro scenario we can find around the us economy. We can find the minor one around 111.90. From here it is channeled again into a very short/short-term downtrend. That should bring it back to test the dynamic support area. As this movement is one of the most common in this technical scenario. That level coincides with the EMA 200 weekly and passing periods for the approximately 109.90. Moreover, following the macroeconomic scenario that is taking shape on the US dollar, it is very likely that this trend ends on the static support. In this situation we need to be ready to open a new order as a big opportunity, we can identified this level on the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement at an altitude of 109.3. In fact, with the FOMC minutes which were published yesterday and the monetary policy that will be declared at the next meeting of the FED this will certainly remain unchanged. This policy could not even modified to make it more expansive (favoring the pressures of Trump and the markets). Analysts expect a slight short-term devaluation by the US dollar against other majors. In the medium term, is expected a lot of laterality on the major pairs. The USD against the Yen should remain within this lateral channel.  This is formed by the support area set at 109.3 and the resistance set at 112.4. Unless there are sudden changes in the scenario, this is what is expected on USDJPY until the end of the first half of 2019.
by BFCMInvest
The price returned to test the medium term key supportThe price returned to test. The price returned to test the medium term key support at 123.8. If it were violated to the downside with closure below it would be a strongly bearish scenario. This would immediately lead it to the next static support at 122.6. Within a couple of sessions then could try to break it down. The pair could reach the next support area at 118 in a week. If, on the other hand, this level, where is the price now, resisted, a very short uptrend will follow up to the static resistance set at 125.7. Most plausible scenario Given the macroeconomic situation that is causing markets and investors worry, it is very likely that shortly we will be able to see a retracement of the main indices. This shifting investors to Japan’s currency. The scenario that is taking shape in the European currency also weighs heavily. The ECB’s stagnant economic and monetary policy is weakening the euro. The currency will continue to depreciate throughout 2019.
Short
by BFCMInvest
Further downside unlocked in GoldWe have some important updates here on Gold after the previous chart (see attached: "Large triangle forming...?"). It is now clear we are in the final leg of an ABC sequence. It is time to start paying attention to the Gold chart over the coming weeks, there is a very strong argument to be made for a top being formed here. This can retrace as much as 1255 here in another leg lower. To the other side, if we price starts to stabilise around 1325 then we may have set the low in the "E" chapter for those following the triangle. So to put it simply, what we have on the menu here to trade is the possibility of a top at 1325. If resistance holds here then we are unlocking a move back towards 1255 before eventually putting scaffolding up around a material low. Alternatively, I will be ready to add upside exposure should be crack the 1325. Good luck all those trading Gold for Spring.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian indexIn line with other major global index, in the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index. The price reached the resistance area between 21450 and 21550 points. A break on the upside would have led to a continuation of this uptrend up to the next resistance zone located between 21700 and 21900 points. A rejected, ( because as we said "In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index" ) seems to be happening, should bring the price to retest the key level of support identified by the EMA 200 periods and passing about 20500 points. European Macros  The fundamental scenario remains strongly uncertain for the Eurozone. Especially after the last ECB meeting in which Draghi stated that it is not only possible to change monetary policy due to slow growth. It is necessary to restore a low-cost liquidity injection to stimulate the economy by the end of 2019. Fed Effects  The uncertainty of the Fed is added to the ECB. In fact the Fed would seem to have decided to not raise interest rates. At least throughout this year, if not also the next. Due to a possible market destabilization with a restrictive monetary policy. In any case, even this choice has left uncertainty among investors who in the short term could liquidate long positions favoring a reversal of world indices.
FShort
by BFCMInvest
In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian indexIn line with other major global index, in the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index. The price reached the resistance area between 21450 and 21550 points. A break on the upside would have led to a continuation of this uptrend up to the next resistance zone located between 21700 and 21900 points. A rejected, ( because as we said "In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index" ) seems to be happening, should bring the price to retest the key level of support identified by the EMA 200 periods and passing about 20500 points.European Macros The fundamental scenario remains strongly uncertain for the Eurozone. Especially after the last ECB meeting in which Draghi stated that it is not only possible to change monetary policy due to slow growth. It is necessary to restore a low-cost liquidity injection to stimulate the economy by the end of 2019. Fed Effects The uncertainty of the Fed is added to the ECB. In fact the Fed would seem to have decided to not raise interest rates. At least throughout this year, if not also the next. Due to a possible market destabilization with a restrictive monetary policy. In any case, even this choice has left uncertainty among investors who in the short term could liquidate long positions favoring a reversal of world indices.
FShort
by BFCMInvest
What the market expects from the fed ?Macro view  The market expected that the FED on this occasion would not change the value of the interest rate. This had already been discounted in previous sessions. At a fundamental level, the US economy is undergoing a slowdown due also to the shutdown and this, together with the unclear monetary policy, is causing uncertainty. Investors want to see if this aggressive monetary policy can continue or if a period of stalemate has begun. The possibility of a rate cut if the situation remains stagnant. Rates  For now it is very likely that interest rates can be resumed in the next FED meetings, as the indicators on which the FOMC is based are aimed at this. The rates can be cut towards the end of 2019 if the market does not liked this monetary tightening. This hypothesis would lead the indices to follow the strongly bearish December trend. Index  At this time DOW JONES, (like SP500 and NASDAQ) tested the respective resistance area and was rejected downwards. The target to which it will aim in the very short term (if Powell makes it clear that there will be further increases soon) will be the area set at 25000 points, then continue towards 24200 if the level just mentioned should have been violated to the downside. The same goes for SP500, which will target 2640 points. The NASDAQ  should go back to testing the 6900.
DJ:DJIShort
by BFCMInvest
What will happen in the fed? No rate hikesTarget No rate hikes and this is the effect on the eur/usd pair: the price is heading towards the resistance area placed at 1.14.So what will happen in the fed? No rate hikes today. The American interest rate will be published, which will almost certainly remain unchanged. It is very likely that the euro will strengthen further against the dollar, moving between 1.14 and 1.144. From here, after Powell's speech, we think it is a good point to reposition ourselves short. The first target on the support set at around 1.12 ( the next one will be 1.10 ) Monetary policy issues What do investors expect from today's fed conference? Investors expect to understand the intentions of the Fed's next moves and its monetary policy: the market, with the stable and positive US economy, expects Powell to resume the aggressive policy adopted throughout 2018. This again means huge investments and speculations in favor of the US dollar.
Short
by BFCMInvest
Time to sell OILThe price is about to reach a key area of resistance to determine the trend in the very short term: between 58.80 and 59.70 a barrier has formed which is a watershed between a further climb of another 6 dollars towards the area between the $ 62/64 per barrel, or a retracement to the support at $ 52.20. The fundamental scenario that is taking shape is quite clear: according to analysts, the US is producing more oil than market demand, which remains constant (if not actually falling in certain periods). This situation is pushing investors to remain cautious with long positions on this commodity: despite the rise of the latter sessions, it is likely that the second hypothesis, (of a retracement ), is the most probable in the short term. On the other hand, the brent is supported by a stable production cut by the OPEC countries and by production interruptions in Iran and Venezuela, maintaining a sort of balance between demand and supply . We recommend a short market entry on WTI, despite the price is close to an important pivot, anticipating the market.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BFCMInvest
Have a coffeeThe Coffee and the dollar The price is above a key support zone, between approximately 96.4 and around 95, it fails to recover because exports are in sharp decline as the currencies of the exporting countries are affected by this devaluation against majors like the US dollar, tending to limit sales so as not to lose too much. All of this,  has caused exports fall from the country that produces the most (Vietnam) by almost 40% compared to January (customs data published in the session on Friday). So this is a commodity that is particularly affected by the weight of the US dollar: the USD should continue to strengthen during 2019 (especially the second half), it is likely that coffee will continue to remain weak (except for sudden changes in the supply/demand ratio ). Now technically, however, it could be a good entry into this area (97) with a short-term target towards 104. A closure below 95, will ensure that the descent continues until new period lows.
ICEUS:KC1!
by BFCMInvest
TWO is a good REIT to considerI like this name because of its massive dividend yield. This isn't uncommon in REITs, but TWO carries one of the larger yields in the industry. Their financial statements are healthy and the primary risk here is the state of interest rates in the US. My harmonic analysis shows two sin waves: a red and a pink. The red represents a macro trend wave and until the FED raised rates incessantly in 2018 this curve fit well to the price action. However, we can see that the trend was disobeyed mid to late 2018, something I attribute almost entirely to the interest rate risk every investor was fretting about at the time. REITs were hit hard during this period. The pink wave represents a mico-trend and still fits very well with the price action. Rates have cooled significantly since their 2018 highs, and so I believe this ticker has room to the upside. This is a long term play, so if you don't intend to store this capital for 3+ years then avoid this name as the volatility for day trading and options plays is relatively non-existent. However, with a 10+ year horizon one can capture an outstanding dividend yield while adding to positions at the troughs of the sinusoidal pattern. Doing this successfully will likely bolster dividend yields with capital gains. The primary risk here is that US interest rates are still near historic lows. Unless the FED sees need to continue quantitative easing the path of least resistance is up. This bodes ill for REITs and could invalidate the $5 trading range I've highlighted. Until then, however, I see no reason why this name would deviate from its historic price pattern. As always, scale in near the lows.
NYSE:TWO
by HyerQuality
Gold: still safe (BUY)Up and Down The price having started going upward to test the resistance placed in area $ 1350 has created a series of sales which brought it back down again, with a retest of the static support located at 1280 $. Both technically and fundamentally the scenario has not changed: the trend remains bullish and would be invalidated in the medium term only if the static holder at $ 1265 is violated downwards, and there was a daily closing below it. Technical and fundamental From a technical point of view, the main EMAs are open upwards (uptrend) and the ichimoku cloud is supporting the price, obviously taking tf into consideration from the daily up. From a fundamental point of view, the uncertainty that revolves around the Fed and its monetary policy in 2019, expected softer than expected, is doing devalue the US dollar, which in the coming weeks / months, will be the crucial factor that will bring this commodity to test the area of about $ 1400 by the end of the first half of 2019.
TVC:GOLDLong
by BFCMInvest
US10s finding support?Market is currently around a number of support levels ranging from 2.796% and 2.514% => This area is going to be very difficult to break because it also includes the uptrend which started from July 2016. Here it is worth pointing out that the market has seen the leg lower via the ABC count. Consildation has kicked in for a lengthy period of time and we are set to begin trading more dollar strength. Watch for signs of a base forming here, the setup weakens below 2.51%. Thanks and good luck
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
Make American stock market rise again Something is moving American index are still in this uptrend that we have exploited in past sessions by positioning ourselves on a long trade. So far, the SP500 price is reaching its resistance area around 2820 points: from here it is very likely that an important retracement can start if the price does not breach this key level and confirm its breakdown. Toward the highest (?) If the static resistance does not yield, SP500 will try to retest the dynamic support identified by the EMA20 on weekly periods, passing around the area near the 2715 points; if the rise in the indexes should continue, the target that SP500 will point will be in the 2936 area, toward the highest historical price. In any case we will wait to reach the 2820 points before entering the market.
SP:SPXLong
by BFCMInvest