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Title: Ringgit Rally Fuels Foreign Bond Inflows: A Deep DiveThe Malaysian ringgit has experienced a substantial appreciation, driven by robust foreign investment in the domestic bond market. A surge in capital inflows, totaling RM5.5 billion in July alone, has propelled the ringgit's performance. This analysis delves into the underlying economic factors driving this trend, examining key indicators and assessing the outlook for sustained growth. While the current trajectory is promising, investors must remain cognizant of potential global economic headwinds. Key Points: Strong foreign inflows into Malaysian bonds Ringgit's appreciation driven by multiple factors Deep dive into economic indicators shaping USD/MYR Assessment of Malaysia's economic fundamentals Cautious outlook amid potential global challenges Key Drivers of the Ringgit Rally: Currency Appreciation: Investors are buying bonds unhedged, betting on further ringgit gains. Strong Domestic Economy: Malaysia's economic robustness and expected interest rate stability bolster investor confidence. Global Factors: Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the USD benefit the ringgit. Economic Indicators Influencing USD/MYR: Interest Rate Differentials: Higher local rates attract foreign capital, strengthening the ringgit. Inflation Rates: Low inflation supports currency value. T rade Balance: Surpluses strengthen the ringgit, reflecting Malaysia's export strength. Economic Growth: Domestic consumption and government spending drive economic growth, enhancing the ringgit's appeal. Political Stability: A stable political climate attracts investment, supporting the currency. Global Economic Conditions: Global trends and geopolitical events affect investor risk appetite and currency flows. Outlook: Malaysia's diversified economy, fiscal prudence, and growing middle class underpin the ringgit's strength. Efforts to boost foreign direct investment and exports further support currency appreciation. However, global uncertainties, US monetary policy shifts, and geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility.
Long
by signalmastermind
Fed Signals Possible Rate Cuts, but Crypto Markets Rattled Federal Reserve officials signaled the possibility of a September rate cut during their July meeting: But crypto prices pulled back after Iran pledged it would retaliate against Israel for assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. Donald Trump expressed strong support for cryptocurrency at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville: Trump pledged to set up a strategic bitcoin reserve, stop the US from selling its bitcoin, and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler if he gets re-elected. Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick announced the firm's plan to establish a Bitcoin financing business with an initial $2 billion investment: The initiative aims to provide leverage to bitcoin investors and strengthen the cryptocurrency ecosystem. The nine US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $98.29 million in outflows on Monday, extending their negative flow streak: BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity FETH led the inflows, while Grayscale Ethereum Trust faced significant outflows. The SEC is looking to amend its complaint against Binance, which could delay a court ruling on the security status of specific tokens: This move involves third-party crypto asset securities and adheres to a court directive for further proceedings. Fed Signals Possible Rate Cuts, but Middle East Tensions Rattle Crypto Markets Federal Reserve officials at their July meeting on Wednesday opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5%, after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation measure, increased by only 0.1% in June. This brought the year-over-year rise to 2.5%, down from 2.6% in May, moving closer to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for the first time hinted at the possibility of cutting rates in September, saying the move is “on the table” if the US continues to make progress on inflation. That would mark the first time the Fed has cut rates in four years. The announcement did not appear to have much impact on cryptocurrency prices. On Wednesday, hitcoin dropped about 2%, below $65,000, while ether dropped more than 1%, hovering above $3,200. The negative price action came after a New York Times report indicated that Iran will take retaliatory action against Israel after Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. 🪙 Topic of the Week: What Are Stablecoins? ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Pre-FOMC Rates Decision Analysis31st July (FOMC Decision Pending) DXY: Ranging between 104.20 and 104.55. If Fed makes no comment on rate cut, DXY could push up to 105.20. If Fed makes comment on rate cuts in Sept, DXY could push down to 103.65. NZDUSD: Buy 0.5930 SL 20 TP 50 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6450 SL 25 TP 90 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Sell 151.50 SL 70 TP 245 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Sell 1.28 SL 20 TP 65 (DXY strength & BoE decision tomorrow) EURUSD: Sell 1.08 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY strength) USDCHF: Sell 0.8820 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3850 SL 20 TP 45 Gold: Needs to break 2425 to trade up to 2450 (DXY weakness)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
BOJ Decision Countdown: Potential 15-Basis Point Rate Hike LeakBOJ Decision Countdown: Potential 15-Basis Point Rate Hike Leaked The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a 15-basis point interest rate hike, surpassing market expectations of a 10-basis point increase or no change at all, according to NHK. This comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve contemplates a rate cut, potentially as soon as September. This could be why we are seeing what we are seeing on the USDJPY chart, with the yen rebounding from 38-year lows. The yen has jumped from around 162 per dollar in mid-July to approximately 153 per dollar, marking its most significant two-week gain of the year. Despite this, over three-quarters of economists surveyed by Reuters two weeks ago expect the BOJ to maintain rates at today's meeting. Some experts, including former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi, attribute this interest rate inertia to the weak underlying factors driving price movements.
by BlackBull_Markets
Pressure Builds Ahead of Major Central Bank Marathon It's a huge week for central banks with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Federal Reserve (Fed), and Bank of England (BOE) set to deliver their decisions within a 32-hour window. Market activity remains largely subdued in anticipation. The BOJ’s decision is the most unpredictable. Current market sentiment suggests a ~60% likelihood of a 10-basis point hike and a ~40% chance of no change. A lack of action could undermine the yen's recent gains with a potential resistance at 155.30 (100 MA). The Fed's announcement is scheduled for Wednesday. Market expectations for a rate cut are just 5%. Investors are keenly awaiting any signals regarding a potential move in September. Finally, the Bank of England has the market guessing with an almost 50 –50 chance for a cut. GBP traders are also digesting a key speech from the new finance minister Rachel Reeves in which she unveiled plans for some spending cuts/ or tax increases to fill a £22bn spending shortfall that was 'covered up' by the Conservative government. Traders now also have 30th October to look forward to as the date of the autumn budget.
by BlackBull_Markets
$QQQ Nasdaq with Rate Hiking Cycle DatesGoing along with my usual 'Key Hidden Levels' in the markets perspective that NEWS is an important price level to mark on charts so it is visible to everyone, I have created the update to the "Rate Hiking Cycle" chart. The purple triangles and lines are the range of the day of the announcement and the mid-point of the day plotted horizontally forward. With this data you can see how past levels where the Fed Rate Decision occurred has provided either support or resistance to the movement of the market. Typically it hasn't been as obvious the the observer of a chart all by itself without these markings. At some point these important news levels will be visible for all of us investors so we can see and understand more quickly how the market is absorbing or dealing with the news. I hope you enjoy this chart an continue to update it for yourself. I will work to get these dates into the system so you can all see them on every chart. Wishing you all the best in your investing and trading. Tim 1:48PM, Thursday May 23, 2024
NASDAQ:QQQ
by timwest
3
Bullish DXY (Post FOMC Analysis 13th June)The DXY spiked higher from the 104.20 price level to 104.60 during the release of the FOMC interest rate decision and the press conference. The move higher has continued through the Asia session with the DXY now approaching the 105-round number level (around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the move yesterday) This bullish move in the DXY is likely due to the FOMC adopting a conservative undertone during the news release. Conservative due to - "We don't see ourselves as having the confidence that would warrant policy loosening at this time" - "We need further confidence, more good inflation readings but won't be specific about how many to start rate cuts" - Indicating the potential of only 1 rate cut decision to come for the 2nd half of the year - "Rate cuts that might have taken place this year, take place next year" If the economy progresses along its current path, the FOMC dot plot suggests that terminal rates for 2024 is likely to be 5.1%. Adopting a conservative stance on rates for 2024 (which could be offset by a more aggressive rate decision in 2025, 4 cuts expected) is bullish for the DXY as it indicates that rates could remain high for longer. Look for the DXY to continue climbing to the upside, toward the immediate resistance level of 105.60 (which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term) Beyond 105.60, the DXY could retest the high from April at 106.40
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
Bitcoin PA and the FED Rate rises History since 2021 The chart explains itself really but we can see that BTC PA has not been effected Directly but more by the impact on other organisations, Mostly Banks. What will be interesting to see i nt eh coming months, is what happens when the FED curs rates, probably in September 2024. On average, when the FED Pivots, Stocks fall...people tend to forget this. We shall have to wait and see if Bitcoin can ride it out, thoguhj I feel ETF's have changed the game a LOT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Fed decision time: Rate cuts before Nov election? The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the federal funds target range at 5.25%-5.5% when officials conclude their two-day meeting on Wednesday. Investors will be scrutinizing the statement to learn when the central bank might eventually reduce its rate and the potential frequency of such cuts this year. Market expectations suggest a possible rate cut in mid-September, 2 months ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University, noted that the recent May jobs report likely ruled out a rate cut in July, while Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, goes even further, suggesting that the robust U.S. economy diminishes the likelihood of a pre-election rate cut. The Fed has rescheduled its November meeting to occur post-election, a move reminiscent of 2020. In a letter addressed to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, three Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren, have called for rate cuts as soon as possible. "The Fed’s monetary policy is... driving up housing and auto insurance costs—two of the key drivers of inflation...”. Former Fed Vice-Chair Donald Kohn asserted that Chair Powell has consistently maintained that decisions are driven by economic conditions rather than political considerations, expressing confidence that this principle will be upheld in the coming months.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY as BOJ rate decision approaches The US federal Reserve is not the only major central bank making an interest rate decision this week. So too, will the nonconformist Bank of Japan (BOJ). In its April policy meeting, the BOJ highlighted upside risks to inflation and indicated readiness to adjust monetary policy, if necessary, although it expects to maintain its current policy for the time being. The BOJ stated that if the outlook for economic activity and price rises materializes, interest rate hikes could be warranted. Key economic reports from Japan prior to this week's interest rate decision include: Japan GDP Growth Rate (final) Japan Economy Watchers Survey Outlook Japan Producer Price Inflation For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. From the daily chart, the USD/JPY perhaps appears slightly bullish. The pair has climbed above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating strong buyer momentum. On Tuesday last week, BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino expressed concerns about the negative impact of a weak yen on the economy. His comments suggest that the BOJ might be preparing for another intervention in the forex markets to support the yen, which would be negative for the USD/JPY pair. The 14-day RSI has recently pulled back, avoiding overbought conditions.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Interest Rates look decently strongThe 2Yr yield has paced itself recently. The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam. Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish (Data not seen here, more info in profile) 2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates. 10Yr has been trading mostly above. Weekly 2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle pattern. 10Yr has been treading higher, along its trend line. TVC:TNX Fed is in a catch 22. Cannot raise rates, more things will break BUT it but cannot lower, inflation.
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES Would you have believed it If you were told a year ago. When every expert was predicting a recession. (which will come of course but when no one is expecting it ) So the conditions are set for a melt up I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next (grab some bitcoin miners!) ENJOY THE NEXT few months! #CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation Which is when the next slowdown will hit. This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend. The stimulus was unprecedented Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago We are near the end! But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BallaJi
2
BIG SHORT XAUUSD DON'T MISS ITWhy might Gold prices decline? Persistent Inflation: When prices exhibit stickiness, it means they don't adjust swiftly to changes in supply, demand, or the overall economy. If inflation remains high despite efforts by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to manage it through interest rate adjustments, this scenario is termed sticky inflation. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates: Typically, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to bolster economic activity or counter economic downturns. Initially, in response to high inflation, the Fed might lower interest rates to spur borrowing and spending, thus stimulating economic growth. However, if inflation remains stubbornly high or continues to climb, the Fed might pause or reverse its rate-cutting measures to curb further inflationary pressures. Impact on Gold Prices: Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. As inflation increases, investors may turn to gold as a store of value since it tends to preserve purchasing power better than fiat currencies during inflationary periods. Yet, if the Fed stops cutting rates due to sticky inflation, it could suggest a potential economic slowdown or a tightening of monetary policy, potentially easing inflationary pressures in the long run. Market Sentiment and Expectations: If investors believe that the Fed's decision to halt rate cuts will effectively address sticky inflation and stabilize the economy, it could shift market sentiment. Investors may become less worried about inflation and less inclined to hold onto gold as a hedge. Consequently, this reduced demand for gold could lead to a decline in its price. In summary, if sticky inflation prompts the Fed to pause rate cuts, it could mitigate inflationary pressures and potentially diminish the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset, causing its price to decline. However, market dynamics are intricate and influenced by various factors beyond inflation and interest rate policies. Let us know what you think? make sure to leave a like :) Greetings, Zila
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ZILATRADES
Bitcoin Halving PregameWhat are our thoughts on Bitcoin and the overall market/market sentiment? I have too many words right now for the markets. So many things converging as far as the dollar, rates, equities, and crypto. This chart is gorgeous and I love seeing the false breakdown over the Iran/Israel headlines. The bullish divergence on the RSI is also lovely. The SPY has finally filled a CME gap back from February. I think we will see a bottom begin to form from here, and whether or not this is the end of the downtrend remains to be seen. I think the probabilities of one more leg down are decent, but same with this being the end of the bear. PS: Elon Musk just tweeted a photo of a missile heading straight up.. and I'm not so sure it had anything to do with war ;)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ChazzyFreshh
Nailing Bitcoin Analysis: Amidst FUD, SEC,ETF, FEDS and More🔮🎓 Nailing Bitcoin Analysis: Amidst FUD, SEC, ETFs, FEDs, and More 🚀💡 Traders, it's FXProfessor here! We're slicing through the noise of FUD, navigating SEC updates, analyzing ETF flows, and eyeing the Fed's next move, all while my Bitcoin long ideas continue to be spot-on. 🧭📊 In the wild world of crypto, where every headline can stir the pot, staying focused on the facts has been the key to our success. 🌪️🗝️ Despite the fear, uncertainty, and doubt that often clouds the market, our analysis remains a beacon, guiding us through uncharted waters. 🛳️🌊 Let's dive into the ETF developments that are making waves. 🌐📈 The recent data paints a picture of resilience, with overall positive inflows since their launch. The ledger of financial flow tells a tale of alternating currents, with some days in the green and others in the red. 💸🔄 Grayscale's outflows have been dominating the scene, yet there's a silver lining as these outflows have been on a steady decline. 📉🔜 In the ETF arena, Fidelity and Blackrock are the champions, outperforming with impressive inflows. 🏅💼 Despite the skeptics raising eyebrows at the $1 billion inflow over a fortnight, let's not forget this is an unprecedented victory lap for the ETF sector. 🏁🏆 As we know, in the world of crypto, what's seen as a sprint may very well be part of a marathon. 🏃‍♂️🔄 With a hawkish eye, we'll continue to monitor these numbers, knowing they hold the power to sway Bitcoin's supply-demand scale. 🦅🧮 More inflows translate to a tighter supply on the spot, potentially propelling prices upward. 📊↗️ Stay tuned as we chart this journey with precision and prowess, armed with the FXProfessor's insights. 📚🎩 🏁🚦📈 1-2-3-GO!!!🧐♟️ Keep in mind we had 1 rejection at 48,5k...expecting another one before the breakout.🌟💥 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙📉 ETFs Flow:
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
1