Get started

Rates

USD/JPY as BOJ rate decision approaches The US federal Reserve is not the only major central bank making an interest rate decision this week. So too, will the nonconformist Bank of Japan (BOJ). In its April policy meeting, the BOJ highlighted upside risks to inflation and indicated readiness to adjust monetary policy, if necessary, although it expects to maintain its current policy for the time being. The BOJ stated that if the outlook for economic activity and price rises materializes, interest rate hikes could be warranted. Key economic reports from Japan prior to this week's interest rate decision include: Japan GDP Growth Rate (final) Japan Economy Watchers Survey Outlook Japan Producer Price Inflation For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. From the daily chart, the USD/JPY perhaps appears slightly bullish. The pair has climbed above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating strong buyer momentum. On Tuesday last week, BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino expressed concerns about the negative impact of a weak yen on the economy. His comments suggest that the BOJ might be preparing for another intervention in the forex markets to support the yen, which would be negative for the USD/JPY pair. The 14-day RSI has recently pulled back, avoiding overbought conditions.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Interest Rates look decently strongThe 2Yr yield has paced itself recently. The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam. Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish (Data not seen here, more info in profile) 2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates. 10Yr has been trading mostly above. Weekly 2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle pattern. 10Yr has been treading higher, along its trend line. TVC:TNX Fed is in a catch 22. Cannot raise rates, more things will break BUT it but cannot lower, inflation.
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BIG SHORT XAUUSD DON'T MISS ITWhy might Gold prices decline? Persistent Inflation: When prices exhibit stickiness, it means they don't adjust swiftly to changes in supply, demand, or the overall economy. If inflation remains high despite efforts by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to manage it through interest rate adjustments, this scenario is termed sticky inflation. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates: Typically, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to bolster economic activity or counter economic downturns. Initially, in response to high inflation, the Fed might lower interest rates to spur borrowing and spending, thus stimulating economic growth. However, if inflation remains stubbornly high or continues to climb, the Fed might pause or reverse its rate-cutting measures to curb further inflationary pressures. Impact on Gold Prices: Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. As inflation increases, investors may turn to gold as a store of value since it tends to preserve purchasing power better than fiat currencies during inflationary periods. Yet, if the Fed stops cutting rates due to sticky inflation, it could suggest a potential economic slowdown or a tightening of monetary policy, potentially easing inflationary pressures in the long run. Market Sentiment and Expectations: If investors believe that the Fed's decision to halt rate cuts will effectively address sticky inflation and stabilize the economy, it could shift market sentiment. Investors may become less worried about inflation and less inclined to hold onto gold as a hedge. Consequently, this reduced demand for gold could lead to a decline in its price. In summary, if sticky inflation prompts the Fed to pause rate cuts, it could mitigate inflationary pressures and potentially diminish the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset, causing its price to decline. However, market dynamics are intricate and influenced by various factors beyond inflation and interest rate policies. Let us know what you think? make sure to leave a like :) Greetings, Zila
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ZILATRADES
Bitcoin Halving PregameWhat are our thoughts on Bitcoin and the overall market/market sentiment? I have too many words right now for the markets. So many things converging as far as the dollar, rates, equities, and crypto. This chart is gorgeous and I love seeing the false breakdown over the Iran/Israel headlines. The bullish divergence on the RSI is also lovely. The SPY has finally filled a CME gap back from February. I think we will see a bottom begin to form from here, and whether or not this is the end of the downtrend remains to be seen. I think the probabilities of one more leg down are decent, but same with this being the end of the bear. PS: Elon Musk just tweeted a photo of a missile heading straight up.. and I'm not so sure it had anything to do with war ;)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ChazzyFreshh
Nailing Bitcoin Analysis: Amidst FUD, SEC,ETF, FEDS and More🔮🎓 Nailing Bitcoin Analysis: Amidst FUD, SEC, ETFs, FEDs, and More 🚀💡 Traders, it's FXProfessor here! We're slicing through the noise of FUD, navigating SEC updates, analyzing ETF flows, and eyeing the Fed's next move, all while my Bitcoin long ideas continue to be spot-on. 🧭📊 In the wild world of crypto, where every headline can stir the pot, staying focused on the facts has been the key to our success. 🌪️🗝️ Despite the fear, uncertainty, and doubt that often clouds the market, our analysis remains a beacon, guiding us through uncharted waters. 🛳️🌊 Let's dive into the ETF developments that are making waves. 🌐📈 The recent data paints a picture of resilience, with overall positive inflows since their launch. The ledger of financial flow tells a tale of alternating currents, with some days in the green and others in the red. 💸🔄 Grayscale's outflows have been dominating the scene, yet there's a silver lining as these outflows have been on a steady decline. 📉🔜 In the ETF arena, Fidelity and Blackrock are the champions, outperforming with impressive inflows. 🏅💼 Despite the skeptics raising eyebrows at the $1 billion inflow over a fortnight, let's not forget this is an unprecedented victory lap for the ETF sector. 🏁🏆 As we know, in the world of crypto, what's seen as a sprint may very well be part of a marathon. 🏃‍♂️🔄 With a hawkish eye, we'll continue to monitor these numbers, knowing they hold the power to sway Bitcoin's supply-demand scale. 🦅🧮 More inflows translate to a tighter supply on the spot, potentially propelling prices upward. 📊↗️ Stay tuned as we chart this journey with precision and prowess, armed with the FXProfessor's insights. 📚🎩 🏁🚦📈 1-2-3-GO!!!🧐♟️ Keep in mind we had 1 rejection at 48,5k...expecting another one before the breakout.🌟💥 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙📉 ETFs Flow:
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
1
USDCAD: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: USDCAD Pattern – Heavy Resistance Support – 1.3514, 1.3454 Resistance – 1.3602 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at USDCAD daily. What are we discussing and asking today after looking at USDCAD? Will current heavy resistance contnue to block buyers? Does price have enough momentum in its current bull channel? Will this week's data and news be enough of an influence to set off a new break lower or higher? Key news, US CPI, PPI, Fed meeting minutes. Canadian interest rate decision. Good trading.
by Eightcap
VIX - forecast 2024The market's recent rally (indices are up 25% since November!) feels frustrating. It doesn't seem to reflect the economic realities we're facing. Inflation is cooling, but it's still above targets. The labor market is strong, which might seem good, but it could be unsustainable with high interest rates. We're seeing layoffs, which contradicts the market's optimism. Maybe I'm missing something, but the disconnect between the market and the economy is concerning. VIX has been rangebound since November 2023 and recently generated a positive MACD signal. Looking ahead, the FOMC statement and Fed rate decision are later today. Historically, these events haven't triggered major market swings. A significant correction might require unexpected data, particularly a surprising labor market report. Trade safe!
PEPPERSTONE:VIX
by Trinnisia_Trades
GBPJPY: Thoughts and Analysis Post-BOJToday's focus: GBPJPY Pattern – Continuation/resistance test? Support – 188.20 Resistance – 191.15 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the GBPJPY daily. The BOJ lifted rates today to 0.10%, breaking the run of negative rates and showing a change in direction not seen since 2007. The BOJ also advised an end to yield curve control and ETF purchases. This had a negative effect on the JPY and sent majors higher. The GBPJPY has added up to 0.73% in today's session and has come close to testing resistance. We want to see a break of resistance to show a new continuation higher. A stall at resistance could set up a new move lower. If we see a new move to 190 and above, could we see the BOJ step in? Good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
Rising interest rates are not affecting Bitcoin anymore Before significant interest rate hikes, I have claimed that Bitcoin is decoupling from the rest economy (which probably happened). However, the effect of rising interest rates still had some power over the Bitcoin in the tank. It seems that this power of raising interest rates is diminishing for Bitcoin relative to the rest of the economy which will probably suffer quite a bit more after this post. The chances of Bitcoin being affected by raising interest rates are becoming lower and lower. The bitcoin community is pricing in these hikes a lot earlier than the rest of the market. The same thing happened when inflation started (2020), when Bitcoin moved significantly quicker than the CPI. My estimate is that the Bitcoin public generally sticks (as do I) to the rule that Inflation is defined as an increase in money supply and deflation is defined as a decrease in the money supply. These numbers are available much quicker than CPI (Consumer Price Index) which is a trailing indicator and can lag 15-24 months on average. The same thing happened in reverse now. One more important point is that monetary inflation is much more difficult to reverse through rising Interest rates, and the community is also aware of this. In my previous posts I have explained how interest rates cannot curb inflation (even in theory) unless they overshoot the current CPI number, which at the time was over 9%. Interest rates could have bigger effects at <9% rates only if they break the economy (which slowly might start happening), but this will still not be enough to reduce the money supply. This could stop further inflation at <9% interest rates, however at the cost of economy. What they cannot do is reverse inflation, meaning that all the money that is in the system will stay in the system and prices will not come down. Killing inflation this way will be paid for through increased poverty and decreased standard of living, until the economic growth "eats" through that "debt". Which at a 2-3% rate could take multiple years. If we account for all of these effects and consider the Bitcoin community world views, the chance of further fall is very low, while the stock market still has a lot of down room.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by josip
8
Bitcoin Sell The News // Buy the the dipIn light of the recent launch of the Bitcoin ETF on January 5th, 2024, and the consequential potential market impacts, a comprehensive analysis is warranted. The underlying dynamics of this analysis are twofold: firstly, the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF, a significant event in the cryptocurrency sphere, is expected to substantially influence market liquidity and investor sentiment. Secondly, the CME Group's probability tool, a sophisticated financial instrument for forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes, is currently indicating a high likelihood of the first interest rate cuts of 2024 occurring in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for March 19th. Furthermore, this analysis takes into account the revised Non-Farm Payroll figures for the entirety of 2023, which were adjusted downwards for 10 out of the 12 months. This revision paints a rather dismal picture of the economic landscape over the previous year, indicating a potentially protracted period of economic stagnation or even contraction. Such a scenario unavoidably caused investors to mis-price their models around a stable economy and soft landing. These will be re-adjusted over the coming weeks. Given these factors, the hypothesis of this analysis is that Bitcoin, being a highly speculative asset, will likely undergo a corrective phase in the short term. This is anticipated to result in a retracement of Bitcoin’s value towards the $28,000 to $30,000 range. This projection is based on a combination of technical analysis, market sentiment, and the historical price behavior of Bitcoin in response to similar macroeconomic conditions. The expected downward trend, however, is predicted to be temporary. As the date of the anticipated rate cuts draws closer, it is forecasted that Bitcoin will experience a significant rebound. This prediction is rooted in the historical precedent that loose monetary policies, such as rate cuts, tend to create favorable conditions for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Investors, anticipating a more accommodative monetary environment, might increase their exposure to Bitcoin, thereby driving up its price. In conclusion, while the short-term outlook for Bitcoin may be bearish due to the factors outlined above, there is a strong potential for a swift recovery and upward momentum as the March 19th FOMC meeting approaches and market conditions evolve. This analysis recommends close monitoring of both macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment to capitalize on the anticipated volatility in Bitcoin’s price.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by PudgyProdigy
3
Two Scenarios Explained GOLD BUYThe relationship between inflation, the U.S. dollar, and gold can be explained as follows: High Inflation and a Strong Dollar: - When inflation is high, it erodes the purchasing power of a currency. In response to high inflation, central banks may implement measures to control it, such as raising interest rates. - Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign capital seeking better returns. As a result, there is an increased demand for the currency of the country with higher interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. - A stronger U.S. dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Since gold is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar tends to put downward pressure on the price of gold. Low Inflation and a Weaker Dollar: Conversely, when inflation is low, central banks may implement accommodative monetary policies, like lower interest rates, to stimulate economic activity. - Lower interest rates may lead to a decrease in the value of the currency as investors seek higher yields elsewhere. A weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for holders of other currencies, potentially increasing demand for gold. Investors often turn to gold as a hedge against currency depreciation during periods of low inflation or economic uncertainty. In summary, the relationship between inflation, the U.S. dollar, and gold can be characterized by the following dynamic: High Inflation: May lead to a stronger dollar, creating selling pressure on gold. Low Inflation: May result in a weaker dollar, potentially increasing demand for gold. It's important to note that while this relationship is often observed, other factors such as geopolitical events, global economic conditions, and changes in investor sentiment can also influence the dynamics of the gold market. As with any investment analysis, a comprehensive understanding of multiple factors is essential for accurate predictions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
USOIL | Pay Attention at the Level $71-$72!Oil has found support in a demand zone, with a retest of an upward trendline and a 0.62% Fibonacci level, suggesting the possibility of a recovery towards new highs. On the chart, I've identified a yellow box where the price could consolidate, drawing liquidity below the swing low before resuming the upward movement. As for the fundamental analysis: Qatar is actively working to mediate a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, facilitating hostage exchanges. Qatar's consistent success in negotiating between the conflicting parties is impacting the crude oil price, especially in a context of easing geopolitical tensions. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will face a long-term challenge in 2024 and 2025 as it tries to limit global production outside of OPEC. They impose strict production quotas on member countries, while non-OPEC producers, such as the United States, exceed OPEC pumping limits. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) recorded a significant increase in January, reaching a twelve-month high with 353,000 new jobs, well above the market's average forecasts of 180,000. With the US economy demonstrating remarkable resilience and the US labor market remaining at historical highs, the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to support the market continues to decrease. Greetings and best wishes for a great weekend to everyone.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
XAUUSD is getting closer to $2060The price of gold is back in positive territory, heading to retest the two-week high of $2,056 set on Wednesday. The US Dollar is losing momentum amid a renewed appetite for risk, as markets applaud China's fiscal support while assessing the interest rate outlook of the United States Federal Reserve. China's Vice Finance Minister, Wang Dongwei, announced on Thursday that they "will appropriately increase investment under the central government budget," which "will help expand domestic demand." This comes after China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained at 50.8 in January, suggesting steady growth in the country's manufacturing sector. US Treasury bond yields declined on Wednesday, dragging the US Dollar down, following the ADP Employment Change data coming in below estimates at 107,000, and the Treasury Department's quarterly announcement that it would sell $121 billion in notes and bonds next week, up from $112 billion last quarter. However, a relatively hawkish tone from the Fed, following its two-day policy meeting, failed to offer any relief to US Treasury bond yields, while the US Dollar rose on the Fed's resistance to a rate cut in March. The US central bank extended the pause, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "based on the meeting today, I don't think it's likely we will have a rate cut in March." Currently, markets are pricing in a 35% probability that the Fed will cut rates in March, while for May, the odds stand at 92%. All eyes now turn toward Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls data to confirm the resistance to a rate cut by the Fed until May. Ahead of that, traders will look to US Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Cost (Q4), and ISM Manufacturing PMI data for fresh trading impetus in the gold price. The upcoming data could help reprice the market's expectations for the dovish Fed pivot. Gold, after breaking through a supply zone at the $2,033 level, continued its ascent to the liquidity zone at the $2,060 level. Now, I expect a bounce in the new demand zone before continuing the rally towards $2,060, a level increasingly in focus after the Fed. Greetings and happy trading to all.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
$DXY, long and short term rates looking betterGood Morning! Let's get it done! Look at #yield for 1yr - 30Yr. What do you see? Last week we said they looked 2b bottoming out a bit. Do any of these look weak to you? RSI above halfway point, solidifying the possible bottoming process. Short term #Interestrates keep testing the top part of the white line. The more something is tested the weaker it becomes and the higher the chance of it breaking through. Long term Forming higher lows. TVC:DXY
TVC:US30Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Will EURUSD return to 1.0810?The EUR/USD is extending gains towards the 1.0900 level in the early European morning hours on Friday. The US dollar is struggling to find strength, allowing the euro to rise further in an optimistic climate. All eyes are now on the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. Regarding the dollar, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has remained within the established multi-day range as market participants continued to digest the latest developments from the January 31 FOMC event. On this note, it is worth remembering that Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is ready to maintain the current policy rate for an extended period, if necessary. He emphasized that substantial advancements in inflation are uncertain and hinted at the possibility of initiating rate cuts at some point this year. Powell underscored the tight labor market, also acknowledging the potentially negative impact on the economy if rate cuts were delayed. He emphasized that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, expressing the belief that the policy rate has likely peaked and suggesting at the same time that a rate cut in March seemed unlikely. In the future, investors are expected to keep the possibility of the first rate cut in March or May open, with probabilities of around 37% and 60%, respectively, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. NFP should provide further details on the timing of any future interest rate decisions. On this point, another strong employment data in January should maintain the idea of a tight labor market and strengthen the perception of a soft landing amid a persistently resilient economy, ultimately supporting the idea of a Fed rate cut in May and thus supporting the US dollar as well as short-term yields. As for the technical forecast, I expect a liquidity grab above the Asia highs at the 1.09 level with a structural change downward on the M5 and the formation of a FVG, which will be our entry point for a short trade down to 1.081. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBPNZD must make a choice! 2.06 or 2.094GBPNZD currently exhibits a bearish structure highlighted by this bearish channel. Currently, the price, after bouncing off the bottom of this channel, is at a crucial point. The latest bullish reaction has led to the formation of a demand zone, ranging from 2.0760 to 2.0940. If the bearish trend maintains its strength, it is possible that the price will decline to break the demand zone, reaching the level of 2.06. At this level, the lower side of the channel and the demand zone intersect. Personally, I anticipate a potential bullish turnaround at this specific point, and that's where I will look for an entry point at H4. I will keep you updated. Greetings and happy trading to all, from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
DXY Outlook (1st Qtr 2024)Last year, despite the volatility in the markets (fight against inflation, SVB collapse, conflict in Gaza....) the DXY traded in a slightly consolidative range, between the 100 and 107 price levels (compared to 2022, where the DXY rose from 95 up to almost 115). The theme of the first quarter of 2024 is likely to be about if/when the Federal Reserve would begin to cut rates, from the current level of 5.25% down to 5%. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the Feds are likely to keep rates on hold in January, but there is a 72.4% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 meeting. The DXY is currently at the 101.50 price level, finding support at the 100-round number area and the longer-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 99.25 price level. A retrace to the upside can be anticipated early in the quarter. However, the upper bound of the bearish channel and the resistance level at the 104 price level could limit further moves to the upside. Look out for inflation and employment data to continue to support the Fed's view for rate cuts in March. This could lead the DXY to continue trading within the bearish channel. If the price breaks below the support level of 99.25, the DXY could trade down to the major support level of 95, and the lower bound of the bearish channel. Major Events to Watch 5th Jan: Non-Farm Employment Change 11th Jan: CPI y/y 26th Jan: Core PCE Price Index 1st Feb: Federal Funds Rate Decision and statement 2nd Feb: Non-Farm Employment Change 13th Feb: CPI y/y 29th Feb: Core PCE Price Index 8th Mar: Non-Farm Employment Change 12th Mar: CPI y/y 21st Mar: Federal Funds Rate Decision
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
4
GBPUSD: Analysis Pre BOE Rate decision. Today's focus: GBPUSD Pattern – Consolidation Watch Support – 1.2665, 1.2610 Resistance – 1.2751 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's video update. We are looking at the GBPUSD today as the price continues to consolidate in a rough ending diagonal pattern. We have also chosen the cable as we have the UK rates decision to come out later today. Depending on what we see from the BOE, this could be a catalyst to break the price out of its current deadlock. Yes, we do have a consolidation in an uptrend but its not a traditional continuation pattern so we are waiting to see if, and where price breaks ou before we start thinking about directional calls. Rates are expected to remain on hold, so we will be looking for policy clues in the statement. Will we see a breakout today? We have run over scenarios for price and points we will look at for potential confirmation. UK Interest Rate decision is due today at 11:00 pm. Good trading.
by Eightcap
1
AUD/USD Awaits the FED for New HighThe AUD/USD exchange rate is declining towards 0.6550 early on Wednesday due to mixed China's PMI data and weaker-than-expected inflation data in Australia. The CPI confirms that the RBA's interest rate hike cycle is over. Attention now turns to the decision of the United States Federal Reserve. Despite an erratic performance on Tuesday, the AUD/USD erases the gains of the week, weakening daily in tandem with the U.S. dollar. Australia's resilience is noteworthy, despite reports of slower-than-expected stimulus measures from the PBoC. The expected decision of the RBA to maintain the current monetary policy limits the potential upward movement of the exchange rate in the short term. The decrease in inflation in December and labor market tensions support the expectation of unchanged interest rates. The possibility of the Federal Reserve extending its restrictive stance favors further gains for the U.S. dollar, acting as a drag on the AUD/USD. On the H4 chart, the price shows a clear break of a bullish trendline at the level of 0.6580. In my opinion, it could be a false breakout as a perfect bounce is observed on the upper base of the previous bearish trendline at the level of 0.6560. Being close to an order block + Demand, I expect a possible rally and will assess opportunities to enter the market during the day, anticipating the rally after the Fed. If interest rates remain unchanged, the dollar should weaken, and the AUD should strengthen, unless we are facing a manipulated market. Certainly, Powell's statements will be crucial, but I believe there will be no cuts before June. Greetings and have a good trading day.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow? Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow? Mostly yes. Market consensus leans towards the U.S. central bank maintaining current interest rates following the conclusion of its two-day meeting tomorrow. However, the potential impact on the U.S. dollar and gold is likely to hinge on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding expectations for a rate cut. While there is an anticipation of a somewhat dovish shift from Fed officials in the market, the robust January data and the positive JOLTS job report this morning present a case for the possibility of a sustained hawkish stance, The JOLTS report revealed that U.S. job openings in December surged to 9.026 million, surpassing the expected 8.750 million and marking the highest figure in three months. XAU/USD was trading in the green for a second consecutive day before the JOLTS report. Gold is currently above a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average for the first time in over two weeks, with longer moving averages situated significantly below the current level. Still, gold has breached its minor downtrend line originating from the early January high raises the possibility of a bullish target towards $2055, presumably reliant on the possibility of a Fed rate cut (or not).
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets